I am not as passionate about this as I am the starting position players. I do agree that it would be nice to trade Minor and get some better performing veteran to front the rotation, but I would rather pay for that for a free agent (anyone who could fill that role in our shopping cart?). I remember when Kowar was thought by some to have the highest ceiling of all our young starting pitchers, so would hate to lose him or any of our other top young guys. Yes, it may seem that we have too many, but I am guessing that with depth needs, not knowing for sure who will hit and who will bust, plus, did it not take Hosmer/Moose/Cain a year or two to really get it going at the big league level, so why trade away important young assets for a "James Shields" trade now if Witt/MJ/Pratto are going to scuffle a bit for a year or two anyway? If we can fill up the bullpen with our very best non-starters, including 2-3 multiple inning guys, then I think that Keller or Singer have the mindset to not fear filling that #1 or #2 spot, and will not mentally collapse from struggling a bit when going up against other team's aces.
The guys who can front a rotation in free agency are:
Kevin Gausman
Clayton Kershaw
Robbie Ray
Max Scherzer
Marcus Stroman
Justin Verlander (maybe)
Then there are some second tier guys like:
Anthony DeSclafani
Jon Gray
Steven Matz
Carlos Rodon (top of rotation stuff, but injury issues)
Noah Syndergaard (maybe)
Adam Wainwright
I don't know that the Royals will be able to swim with the top guys and the second guys all have their own questions/not likely to leave their current team. I agree they don't need to make a win now trade. I'd roll with the current guys and sort it out next year, but this isn't about what I'd do. It's what I think they'll do.
And one bone to pick about Singer not mentally collapsing. He's spent a good chunk of the season mentally collapsing when things have gone wrong. I don't think it's really a big deal because after a week or two, ones don't match up with ones anymore, so that part doesn't matter so much, but I'm not even remotely ready to trust Singer with that kind of responsibility in a rotation.
Good points. I hope they do not trade away Kowar or anyone other young guy we do not know is a bust. Or overspend for a "win now" or "have to have a better veteran #1 now" (you have convinced me that is not important once the season gets rolling. Put Minor and Junis in the bullpen if they would have value there (did not Minor used to be real good for us there?). About Brady, maybe my point is his confidence - even if unjustified. Maybe his demeanor is fooling me, but it seems like he (even if arrogantly and wrongly) believes that he is already the best pitcher in baseball, not afraid, not lacking confidence, to go up against anyone and honestly expect, if he is "on," that he will prevail. If we can go get him after 1-4 innings when he is off, so that he does not cost us the game, by having enough "Ervins" next year, then, since it will take a good year anyway for the next Big 3 to hit their stride on the position side, let us muddle merrily along.
I don't think Junis is on the 40-man next year. He'll be 29 and hasn't been especially decent since 2018. Way too many good arms on the way who are better served with his spot. Minor was very good in the bullpen in 2017. He averaged 94.7 MPH with his fastball. He moved to the rotation in Texas and averaged 92.8 and 92.5 the next two years and then that fell to 90.6 in 2020 and bumped just a bit to 90.9 this year. I'm not sure how effective he'd be in the bullpen at 92ish.
And I think you probably know by now that Singer is going to need to prove a lot to me. Like I've said before, he has the offseason to try to figure out something for a third pitch. I don't care if it's a changeup, but he needs something that he's willing to use. And if he has that, then we can have a discussion about him as more than a middle to back of the rotation guy.
I'd love to see DeSclafani or Jon Gray of that second tier group honestly. Maybe not the splash people want but if you you can pitch in Coors (and not lose you mind as a pitcher) I'm in. In DeSclafani's case, you hold your own against the Padres, Dodger's, and pitching at AZ and CO....you'll do alright in Kaufmann.
Yeah, either would be very interesting. Gray has made some comments in the past about wanting to stay in Colorado, which is great for the Rockies but seems odd. DeSclafani is a bit of a risk because of the lack of real track record, but I'd be interested for sure.
Gray has said he wants to stay in CO? I was about to go on and on about how his agent should inform him of the benefits of leaving, but then I checked his stats and his 3.79/1.15whip are better in Coors than on the road 4.59/1.52....go figure. How high are you on Heasley? Watching him the other day he reminded me of so many Cleveland-esc pitchers (Civale). Four pitches....not really overpowering but knows how to pitch and mix. Maybe its the Royals colored glasses. But I see less talent but better results out of him than Kowar/Singer in the rotation.
Thanks David, love the work you, Max, and Alex all do. One thing that dawned on me that I haven't really seen talked or written about was the more time the royals allowed themselves with the Picollo promotion. I'm a fan of DM and Picollo....but its not lost on me that they just gave themselves more time to see results. I'm of the belief that by year 5 you NEED to be .500 or its not working. While I think they have better pieces in place I can see a world where the royals are a 75 win team again next year. Pitchers still figuring it out, rookie hitter struggling, no influx of FA talent, etc. My point is, now can't the organization now say "its Picollo's first year, we have the pieces in place, and need a little more seasoning." I can see a world where DM was in trouble if next years team was a 75 win team. Now he is off the hook a little bit. Or do you think this all goes hand in hand? At what point are they both in trouble regardless of Picollo's "time" in that role? I actually think it will work out but I did occur to me they probably bought themselves another couple years to make this work because DM's seat had to be getting warmer.
Hey Joel, thanks for reading! I think I touched on the extra time somewhere (maybe here or at Royals Review, who knows?). They have definitely turned 2022 from a must-win season to a year where they still need to perform, but it doesn't seem as dire. That said, I wrote after the promotions that it felt a little like John Sherman wanted JJ in the GM's role and Dayton doing things that aren't quite as dependent on the day-to-day work on the field. Maybe I'm seeing what I want to see, but that seems significant to me. But by not bringing someone else in, I don't think the clock completely resets or anything because it's still the same cast and crew making all the calls.
Late to the party but here are my crystal ball thoughts.
JJ Picollo will trade Whit Merrifield this offseason. He is still an effective league average hitter that is playing defense well enough to be considered for a gold glove and he steals a ton of bags. His best value is at second base and the Royals have a ton of middle infield options with more coming from the minors.
Mondesi will be your utility player playing 5 days a week at 4-5 different positions including CF.
Michael A. Taylor is going to get signed as a free agent for more than the Royals are willing to pay.
Cam Gallagher or Sebastian Riverio will be traded to the Miami Marlins.
The Royals, in an effort to monitor the number of innings the starters throw, will be the first team to implement a 6 man rotation for the entire season.
Mike Minor will become a bullpen arm again.
There will be no veteran free agent starting pitcher signed. Brad Keller will fill that role.
Kyle Zimmer will be non tendered.
Ryan O'Hearn is non tendered/DFA'd
2B Lopez
LF Benintendi
C Perez
DH Melendez
SS Witt Jr.
CF Isbel
RF Dozier
1B Santana
3B Rivera
Bench
Alberto
Gallagher or Riverio whoever is not traded
Mondesi
Olivares
Pitching
Starters:
Hernandez
Lynch
Keller
Bubic
Singer
Kowar
Junis - they need someone long to throw when the starter turns in a 2 inning clunker.
I am not as passionate about this as I am the starting position players. I do agree that it would be nice to trade Minor and get some better performing veteran to front the rotation, but I would rather pay for that for a free agent (anyone who could fill that role in our shopping cart?). I remember when Kowar was thought by some to have the highest ceiling of all our young starting pitchers, so would hate to lose him or any of our other top young guys. Yes, it may seem that we have too many, but I am guessing that with depth needs, not knowing for sure who will hit and who will bust, plus, did it not take Hosmer/Moose/Cain a year or two to really get it going at the big league level, so why trade away important young assets for a "James Shields" trade now if Witt/MJ/Pratto are going to scuffle a bit for a year or two anyway? If we can fill up the bullpen with our very best non-starters, including 2-3 multiple inning guys, then I think that Keller or Singer have the mindset to not fear filling that #1 or #2 spot, and will not mentally collapse from struggling a bit when going up against other team's aces.
The guys who can front a rotation in free agency are:
Kevin Gausman
Clayton Kershaw
Robbie Ray
Max Scherzer
Marcus Stroman
Justin Verlander (maybe)
Then there are some second tier guys like:
Anthony DeSclafani
Jon Gray
Steven Matz
Carlos Rodon (top of rotation stuff, but injury issues)
Noah Syndergaard (maybe)
Adam Wainwright
I don't know that the Royals will be able to swim with the top guys and the second guys all have their own questions/not likely to leave their current team. I agree they don't need to make a win now trade. I'd roll with the current guys and sort it out next year, but this isn't about what I'd do. It's what I think they'll do.
And one bone to pick about Singer not mentally collapsing. He's spent a good chunk of the season mentally collapsing when things have gone wrong. I don't think it's really a big deal because after a week or two, ones don't match up with ones anymore, so that part doesn't matter so much, but I'm not even remotely ready to trust Singer with that kind of responsibility in a rotation.
Good points. I hope they do not trade away Kowar or anyone other young guy we do not know is a bust. Or overspend for a "win now" or "have to have a better veteran #1 now" (you have convinced me that is not important once the season gets rolling. Put Minor and Junis in the bullpen if they would have value there (did not Minor used to be real good for us there?). About Brady, maybe my point is his confidence - even if unjustified. Maybe his demeanor is fooling me, but it seems like he (even if arrogantly and wrongly) believes that he is already the best pitcher in baseball, not afraid, not lacking confidence, to go up against anyone and honestly expect, if he is "on," that he will prevail. If we can go get him after 1-4 innings when he is off, so that he does not cost us the game, by having enough "Ervins" next year, then, since it will take a good year anyway for the next Big 3 to hit their stride on the position side, let us muddle merrily along.
I don't think Junis is on the 40-man next year. He'll be 29 and hasn't been especially decent since 2018. Way too many good arms on the way who are better served with his spot. Minor was very good in the bullpen in 2017. He averaged 94.7 MPH with his fastball. He moved to the rotation in Texas and averaged 92.8 and 92.5 the next two years and then that fell to 90.6 in 2020 and bumped just a bit to 90.9 this year. I'm not sure how effective he'd be in the bullpen at 92ish.
And I think you probably know by now that Singer is going to need to prove a lot to me. Like I've said before, he has the offseason to try to figure out something for a third pitch. I don't care if it's a changeup, but he needs something that he's willing to use. And if he has that, then we can have a discussion about him as more than a middle to back of the rotation guy.
I'd love to see DeSclafani or Jon Gray of that second tier group honestly. Maybe not the splash people want but if you you can pitch in Coors (and not lose you mind as a pitcher) I'm in. In DeSclafani's case, you hold your own against the Padres, Dodger's, and pitching at AZ and CO....you'll do alright in Kaufmann.
Yeah, either would be very interesting. Gray has made some comments in the past about wanting to stay in Colorado, which is great for the Rockies but seems odd. DeSclafani is a bit of a risk because of the lack of real track record, but I'd be interested for sure.
Gray has said he wants to stay in CO? I was about to go on and on about how his agent should inform him of the benefits of leaving, but then I checked his stats and his 3.79/1.15whip are better in Coors than on the road 4.59/1.52....go figure. How high are you on Heasley? Watching him the other day he reminded me of so many Cleveland-esc pitchers (Civale). Four pitches....not really overpowering but knows how to pitch and mix. Maybe its the Royals colored glasses. But I see less talent but better results out of him than Kowar/Singer in the rotation.
Thanks David, love the work you, Max, and Alex all do. One thing that dawned on me that I haven't really seen talked or written about was the more time the royals allowed themselves with the Picollo promotion. I'm a fan of DM and Picollo....but its not lost on me that they just gave themselves more time to see results. I'm of the belief that by year 5 you NEED to be .500 or its not working. While I think they have better pieces in place I can see a world where the royals are a 75 win team again next year. Pitchers still figuring it out, rookie hitter struggling, no influx of FA talent, etc. My point is, now can't the organization now say "its Picollo's first year, we have the pieces in place, and need a little more seasoning." I can see a world where DM was in trouble if next years team was a 75 win team. Now he is off the hook a little bit. Or do you think this all goes hand in hand? At what point are they both in trouble regardless of Picollo's "time" in that role? I actually think it will work out but I did occur to me they probably bought themselves another couple years to make this work because DM's seat had to be getting warmer.
Hey Joel, thanks for reading! I think I touched on the extra time somewhere (maybe here or at Royals Review, who knows?). They have definitely turned 2022 from a must-win season to a year where they still need to perform, but it doesn't seem as dire. That said, I wrote after the promotions that it felt a little like John Sherman wanted JJ in the GM's role and Dayton doing things that aren't quite as dependent on the day-to-day work on the field. Maybe I'm seeing what I want to see, but that seems significant to me. But by not bringing someone else in, I don't think the clock completely resets or anything because it's still the same cast and crew making all the calls.
Late to the party but here are my crystal ball thoughts.
JJ Picollo will trade Whit Merrifield this offseason. He is still an effective league average hitter that is playing defense well enough to be considered for a gold glove and he steals a ton of bags. His best value is at second base and the Royals have a ton of middle infield options with more coming from the minors.
Mondesi will be your utility player playing 5 days a week at 4-5 different positions including CF.
Michael A. Taylor is going to get signed as a free agent for more than the Royals are willing to pay.
Cam Gallagher or Sebastian Riverio will be traded to the Miami Marlins.
The Royals, in an effort to monitor the number of innings the starters throw, will be the first team to implement a 6 man rotation for the entire season.
Mike Minor will become a bullpen arm again.
There will be no veteran free agent starting pitcher signed. Brad Keller will fill that role.
Kyle Zimmer will be non tendered.
Ryan O'Hearn is non tendered/DFA'd
2B Lopez
LF Benintendi
C Perez
DH Melendez
SS Witt Jr.
CF Isbel
RF Dozier
1B Santana
3B Rivera
Bench
Alberto
Gallagher or Riverio whoever is not traded
Mondesi
Olivares
Pitching
Starters:
Hernandez
Lynch
Keller
Bubic
Singer
Kowar
Junis - they need someone long to throw when the starter turns in a 2 inning clunker.
Minor - same as Junis
Lovelady
Staumont
Brentz
Barlow
Tapia