Not to blow my own horn (well, maybe a little) but in the fifth inning Tuesday night we saw once again what happens when MJ tries to field ground balls off to his left side instead of getting in front of the ball as he should - as I predicted here just a few days ago. I turned the game on just in time to see that and the resulting Padres run, and turned it off again just as quickly.
A better outfielder certainly makes that play, but I also don't think he made a conscious effort to play it off to the side. It was moving pretty fast and hopefully that's something he can learn from. And if he can't/doesn't, well, it'll be some other team's problem in a year or two.
I don't think it's a difference of opinion at all. I'm not saying he couldn't get in front of the ball. I'm saying I don't think he purposely tried to play it to the side. The speed of the play got the better of him. Again, he made a mistake that he can learn from. Or he won't. I can't predict the future, so I don't know what will happen.
We're over 25% of the way through the season. The primary starters have been Lyles, Greinke, Keller, Singer, and Yarbrough. All five have a significantly worse FIP this year than last year. Four of them also have a significantly worse ERA+. (Singer's ERA+ has dropped from 125 last year to 63. Lyles has seen his FIP balloon from 4.40 to 6.40.)
Most of the much-ballyhood class of '18 is MIA, though Lynch is said to be returning soon. (That may be a good thing or it may not. We'll find out soon enough.) Is there ANY pitcher of note on the staff who can be said to be significantly better this year than last?
Is it too soon to point out that whatever the cause of this latest debacle, Matheny and Eldred aren't responsible for it? Explain to me again how this latest crew of pitching coaches are supposed to be genius miracle workers…??? Opposing hitters have rendered their verdict and so far it's almost universally negative.
This is big-league baseball; spin rates and pitch shapes and release points and pitch charts and slogans like "raid the zone" etc. are all fine but empirical real-world outcomes trump all of them. Especially in the case of this unforgivably bad starting rotation, in which every single pitcher is worse than he was last year.
Nobody ever said they're "genius miracle workers." I get it. You don't like the coaches. You've made that abundantly clear, and that's fine. I think you'll be proven wrong in the long run. You think you'll be proven right. Only time will tell. There's a whole lot of evidence that they're doing some very good things organizationally, which stem directly from the new hires at the big league level. I have a feeling I know what your response will be to that. Prospects are prospects and all that. That's fine. You're free to your opinion on that and obviously everything else.
At the big league level, Royals Farm Report put out a great article a couple weeks ago (so the numbers are obviously a bit different) - https://royalsfarmreport.com/2023/05/02/digging-for-evidence-of-progress/. The first-pitch strike rate is up by more than two percent, which is a big jump. Their zone rate is up a bit. The rate of contact allowed is down. The swinging strike rate (as it would logically follow) is up. Why is Singer struggling? There are a handful of reasons that will paint an interesting picture for this coaching staff as the season progresses. I think the WBC was an issue for him, but I also think there are things way beyond that. Why is Keller struggling? Probably because he's not very good. Same with Jordan Lyles. The bullpen becoming a strikeout machine is definitely a point in the coaching staff's favor. The third-best strikeout rate this year after being fifth-worst last year isn't nothing.
So we'll see how it goes. I'm going to continue to trust the people who are way smarter than me who keep hammering to me that the process is good and the results should follow. I get needing to be convinced with tangible results, and that's fine too.
You're putting words in my mouth. I never said "I don't like the new coaches." What I have said is that I remain unconvinced of their efficacy so far. That's an entirely different statement.
We agree on one point: it's certainly true that guys like Keller and Lyles just aren't good pitchers. It's equally true that by the numbers they are significantly worse this year than they were last year.
IDK, not a whole lot about this game registered with me. It’s actually kinda reassuring to see what you expected going into the season. Singer was good (agree something is still off though and I’m not confident he keeps this up), defense was little league bad at times, offense was average to above average (I’ll take 5 runs), and bullpen was good.
I know it’s too early, but man. I keep tabs on the Cardinals a bit too….they’ve got so many young outfielders they had to send down their best prospect who was actually hitting in Walker. The Cards and Royals match up so well for Singer. I’m not saying Walker per se…but they are so desperate for starting pitching over there….you would think if Singer can get right that would be an ideal match.
I'm probably going to have a trade article coming out in a couple weeks when they have two off-days in a row. Yes, two in a row. What the hell, schedule-makers? But I think Singer is a good fit in St. Louis even if they don't rebound this year because of his team control. Baltimore also makes A TON of sense (maybe Chapman too). So stay tuned on that.
Are we getting to the point with Keller that they need to make an example out of him? The walks are out of control….and if that is what you are preaching…seems like we are getting to the point of practicing what you preach so to speak. But I get it…who the hell else are you going to throw? And these are meaningless innings right now, so IDK put them on his arm. Its just out of control literally with him right now.
I think it might be close to that. It's such a tightrope walk with him (in many ways). On one hand, you want to see if you can figure out his issues and get him right to trade him. On the other hand, he's leaving in a few months regardless and what's the top value he can reach? On the third hand, yeah, who else is going to pitch? Lynch getting back will help, but they're already one man down in the rotation, so you're still short. I'd rather Keller walk five a game than rush someone who can actually help.
But I'd also rather not see Keller pitch again. I guess what I'm saying is I can see both sides. I also think there's a very real chance Keller is hurt, which at least would give a reason for all of this. The velocity is down. The slider only got a 7.7 percent whiff rate on Monday. It's moving similar to the past, so maybe I'm just trying to figure *something* out, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see an IL stint that could get them a look at Austin Cox. I also wouldn't hate putting someone like him between Greinke and Lyles so teams aren't seeing them back-to-back anymore. I think that's hurting Lyles some (though he's doing plenty on his own).
Yeah, I’m a little surprised they aren’t giving Cox more of a look. Sounds like re-running Hernandez back out there tonight. I don’t know that there is a good answer with Keller. But….and this is a big but, this would be a PERFECT place to kinda re-in force your message so to speak. You have a guy that isn’t going to be around next year, isn’t following the message at the moment. Is it going to make a difference? Probably not, but I never mind a little message reinforcement now and then. Lol.
Well, Cox got caught up in an awkward numbers game. They needed a fresh arm, so he got sent down and then he couldn't come back for 15 days, which isn't until Saturday (I think), so it's just awkward. He could come up for someone going on the IL before then, so we'll see on that. I think Hernandez is working as an opener, though I'm not sure that's the right terminology if they're running a true bullpen game instead of using a bulk guy after him.
Ah, so they are just having Hernandez go an inning. Man, is it just me or are the Royals the only team to have multiple bullpen games by May 17th already? Don’t look it up…it’s a rhetorical question. Lol
Big shout out to Engel and Odor for getting picked off and making sure that Barlow wasn't forced to face Tatis and Cronenworth in the ninth.
Barlow, the above snark aside, has been really good for several weeks now. We won't talk about the fact that this game probably should have ended 5-1 or 5-2 at worst (yikes!).
I won't pretend that I watch the San Diego Padres daily, but if this series is any indication of their baserunning acumen--well, it's certainly one explanation how they're 20-23.
Yeah, they look...bad. Bob Melvin should run a better team than this, but also small samples can make a great team look terrible and vice versa, and I don't see enough of the Padres to really know how they're run. Still, they have all that star power and are three games over .500, like you said, so maybe this wasn't too different than most nights for them.
But yeah, Barlow has looked outstanding after some early struggles. I don't know what he did (I might be able to get some answers soon), but he turned his season around. For his ERA to be down below 4.00 after where it was less than a month ago is pretty impressive.
I think it’s a bit early to judge the coaching staff harshly. They’ve only worked with the players since February and the talent on the staff is suspect. All the coaching in the world cannot make good pitchers out of shit.
No, the coaches get all through next year. As I’ve mentioned, I love this experiement because there is no debate. It’s a talent issue at the major league level at least. The question is JJ…and I don’t have anything against him besides wishing everyone from the last 15 years was out and all fresh eyes were in. But that’s a Sherman thing. If he told Sherman this was going to happen….ok. But if he told Sherman they were closer than this….and that Lyles was worth X….he’s got some issues. But David already knows how I feel about JJ…and he’s getting into it with others already this morning. LOL…we’ll leave this one alone.
I will say that JJ was never shy about what this season was. It was something that I noted was different about him. He was pretty honest that they weren't going to make moves to win four more games and get them to 75 (wishful thinking now, but not in January) or whatever. I think they've been pretty clear they didn't see this team as a winner. The degree of ineptitude only matters so much at that point.
Yeah, I listen to the Kaufman corner podcast that Rany and Soren do each week. I side with Rany more on this issue. But everyone is 100% right in that JJ didn’t say they were going to win this year…and he told Sherman it would be more this way than the other…then he’s fine. Those conversations we’ll just never know about.
We obviously won’t know what’s said behind closed doors, but in my experience, the message said publicly is tamed down at least 30% and maybe more. Based on what was said publicly, I’d imagine even a 13-32 record isn’t a huge shock.
A couple of things popped to me in this game. First, despite Wacha’s dominance I have confidence in our hitters that I just haven’t had in the past. They work counts (other than Witt, even Salvy has joined in on the fun and seems a bit more selective), they hunt for pitches, and they hit for power. Mikael’s frozen rope double to straightaway CF shows his prodigious upside and he has me convinced that he can be a long term piece at either SS or 3B. Second, poor Q. You can tell the man has ideas such as lineup construction when he goes R-R-L-R-R-L-R-R-R against a righty because of theoretical bullpen matchups later. But his ideas are just that because he doesn’t have the horses to make it go. Same thing with the pitching, openers and solid use of relievers such as the way he can manage a bullpen with a lead and the use of Max Castillo. Finally, and you may not want to touch on this due to the nature of the conversation, but Hudler’s thinly veiled racism towards Tatis and Soto this series has been unacceptable. The way he talked about Tatis and his PED suspension was the stuff that Master’s level papers on the difference in the way the media covers athletes of different races is made of. Then being upset at Soto’s shimmy and digging into the batting box to the point that Ryan had to ask him him if he’s ok. Just upsetting that in 2023 those comments are still being made.
I totally agree with you on the offense. Sometimes a pitcher is just great and I think Wacha was just great on Monday. It happens. It's much easier to accept that when they scored six the day before and five the day after than when a great performance is sandwiched between like three runs total, but still. I agree that this isn't Q's ideal roster and I think he knew that would be the case coming in, but also had a pretty good idea they'd get to his ideal roster in time. Same is definitely true with the pitching staff, though it's nice to see the power arms in the bullpen getting all those strikeouts.
To your second point, I don't know if this is a skill I've developed or if I just don't pay close enough attention, but I often tune out the broadcast pretty well. I'd say it's the baby often on my lap during games, but I've been doing it for years. And I truly couldn't tell you anything Hudler has said other than when he noted that Soto doesn't want to swing on Monday night. So I'm not saying you're wrong or right, but I'm saying I have no idea. I'll try to pay closer attention this afternoon though and might come back with some thoughts if it comes up again. But I also can't promise that my reflex won't kick in and I'll continue to tune out the broadcast haha.
Agreed that he knew what he was getting into and I’m sure he’s assessing who he can make things work with and who he can’t. And my god, the OF defense last night. *vomit*
Just want to say thanks again for doing this newsletter David. It's not easy to do level-headed analysis when the team in the aggregate is performing so poorly, so it's nice clicking the ItC link most mornings knowing I can expect good analysis and usually pretty reasonable takes, especially when a good chunk of the fanbase is understandably negative about the results.
Wow, was tonight overcoming adversity or did we get lucky with a great pitcher having an off night?
Either way I am happy, I just still can't figure out why this team makes every game seem like we have a chance and seem like we don't suk. Why am I so invested in this team?
Is it coaching? Or just the resilience of youth? I am so impressed with the way these guys keep battling- It seems impossible not to root for them.
Not to blow my own horn (well, maybe a little) but in the fifth inning Tuesday night we saw once again what happens when MJ tries to field ground balls off to his left side instead of getting in front of the ball as he should - as I predicted here just a few days ago. I turned the game on just in time to see that and the resulting Padres run, and turned it off again just as quickly.
A better outfielder certainly makes that play, but I also don't think he made a conscious effort to play it off to the side. It was moving pretty fast and hopefully that's something he can learn from. And if he can't/doesn't, well, it'll be some other team's problem in a year or two.
We have a definite difference of opinion here. Yes he was on the run but as I saw it he could have and should have gotten in front of that ball.
I don't think it's a difference of opinion at all. I'm not saying he couldn't get in front of the ball. I'm saying I don't think he purposely tried to play it to the side. The speed of the play got the better of him. Again, he made a mistake that he can learn from. Or he won't. I can't predict the future, so I don't know what will happen.
We're over 25% of the way through the season. The primary starters have been Lyles, Greinke, Keller, Singer, and Yarbrough. All five have a significantly worse FIP this year than last year. Four of them also have a significantly worse ERA+. (Singer's ERA+ has dropped from 125 last year to 63. Lyles has seen his FIP balloon from 4.40 to 6.40.)
Most of the much-ballyhood class of '18 is MIA, though Lynch is said to be returning soon. (That may be a good thing or it may not. We'll find out soon enough.) Is there ANY pitcher of note on the staff who can be said to be significantly better this year than last?
Is it too soon to point out that whatever the cause of this latest debacle, Matheny and Eldred aren't responsible for it? Explain to me again how this latest crew of pitching coaches are supposed to be genius miracle workers…??? Opposing hitters have rendered their verdict and so far it's almost universally negative.
This is big-league baseball; spin rates and pitch shapes and release points and pitch charts and slogans like "raid the zone" etc. are all fine but empirical real-world outcomes trump all of them. Especially in the case of this unforgivably bad starting rotation, in which every single pitcher is worse than he was last year.
Nobody ever said they're "genius miracle workers." I get it. You don't like the coaches. You've made that abundantly clear, and that's fine. I think you'll be proven wrong in the long run. You think you'll be proven right. Only time will tell. There's a whole lot of evidence that they're doing some very good things organizationally, which stem directly from the new hires at the big league level. I have a feeling I know what your response will be to that. Prospects are prospects and all that. That's fine. You're free to your opinion on that and obviously everything else.
At the big league level, Royals Farm Report put out a great article a couple weeks ago (so the numbers are obviously a bit different) - https://royalsfarmreport.com/2023/05/02/digging-for-evidence-of-progress/. The first-pitch strike rate is up by more than two percent, which is a big jump. Their zone rate is up a bit. The rate of contact allowed is down. The swinging strike rate (as it would logically follow) is up. Why is Singer struggling? There are a handful of reasons that will paint an interesting picture for this coaching staff as the season progresses. I think the WBC was an issue for him, but I also think there are things way beyond that. Why is Keller struggling? Probably because he's not very good. Same with Jordan Lyles. The bullpen becoming a strikeout machine is definitely a point in the coaching staff's favor. The third-best strikeout rate this year after being fifth-worst last year isn't nothing.
So we'll see how it goes. I'm going to continue to trust the people who are way smarter than me who keep hammering to me that the process is good and the results should follow. I get needing to be convinced with tangible results, and that's fine too.
You're putting words in my mouth. I never said "I don't like the new coaches." What I have said is that I remain unconvinced of their efficacy so far. That's an entirely different statement.
We agree on one point: it's certainly true that guys like Keller and Lyles just aren't good pitchers. It's equally true that by the numbers they are significantly worse this year than they were last year.
My apologies for assuming that.
IDK, not a whole lot about this game registered with me. It’s actually kinda reassuring to see what you expected going into the season. Singer was good (agree something is still off though and I’m not confident he keeps this up), defense was little league bad at times, offense was average to above average (I’ll take 5 runs), and bullpen was good.
I know it’s too early, but man. I keep tabs on the Cardinals a bit too….they’ve got so many young outfielders they had to send down their best prospect who was actually hitting in Walker. The Cards and Royals match up so well for Singer. I’m not saying Walker per se…but they are so desperate for starting pitching over there….you would think if Singer can get right that would be an ideal match.
I'm probably going to have a trade article coming out in a couple weeks when they have two off-days in a row. Yes, two in a row. What the hell, schedule-makers? But I think Singer is a good fit in St. Louis even if they don't rebound this year because of his team control. Baltimore also makes A TON of sense (maybe Chapman too). So stay tuned on that.
Are we getting to the point with Keller that they need to make an example out of him? The walks are out of control….and if that is what you are preaching…seems like we are getting to the point of practicing what you preach so to speak. But I get it…who the hell else are you going to throw? And these are meaningless innings right now, so IDK put them on his arm. Its just out of control literally with him right now.
I think it might be close to that. It's such a tightrope walk with him (in many ways). On one hand, you want to see if you can figure out his issues and get him right to trade him. On the other hand, he's leaving in a few months regardless and what's the top value he can reach? On the third hand, yeah, who else is going to pitch? Lynch getting back will help, but they're already one man down in the rotation, so you're still short. I'd rather Keller walk five a game than rush someone who can actually help.
But I'd also rather not see Keller pitch again. I guess what I'm saying is I can see both sides. I also think there's a very real chance Keller is hurt, which at least would give a reason for all of this. The velocity is down. The slider only got a 7.7 percent whiff rate on Monday. It's moving similar to the past, so maybe I'm just trying to figure *something* out, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see an IL stint that could get them a look at Austin Cox. I also wouldn't hate putting someone like him between Greinke and Lyles so teams aren't seeing them back-to-back anymore. I think that's hurting Lyles some (though he's doing plenty on his own).
Yeah, I’m a little surprised they aren’t giving Cox more of a look. Sounds like re-running Hernandez back out there tonight. I don’t know that there is a good answer with Keller. But….and this is a big but, this would be a PERFECT place to kinda re-in force your message so to speak. You have a guy that isn’t going to be around next year, isn’t following the message at the moment. Is it going to make a difference? Probably not, but I never mind a little message reinforcement now and then. Lol.
Well, Cox got caught up in an awkward numbers game. They needed a fresh arm, so he got sent down and then he couldn't come back for 15 days, which isn't until Saturday (I think), so it's just awkward. He could come up for someone going on the IL before then, so we'll see on that. I think Hernandez is working as an opener, though I'm not sure that's the right terminology if they're running a true bullpen game instead of using a bulk guy after him.
Ah, so they are just having Hernandez go an inning. Man, is it just me or are the Royals the only team to have multiple bullpen games by May 17th already? Don’t look it up…it’s a rhetorical question. Lol
Big shout out to Engel and Odor for getting picked off and making sure that Barlow wasn't forced to face Tatis and Cronenworth in the ninth.
Barlow, the above snark aside, has been really good for several weeks now. We won't talk about the fact that this game probably should have ended 5-1 or 5-2 at worst (yikes!).
I won't pretend that I watch the San Diego Padres daily, but if this series is any indication of their baserunning acumen--well, it's certainly one explanation how they're 20-23.
Yeah, they look...bad. Bob Melvin should run a better team than this, but also small samples can make a great team look terrible and vice versa, and I don't see enough of the Padres to really know how they're run. Still, they have all that star power and are three games over .500, like you said, so maybe this wasn't too different than most nights for them.
But yeah, Barlow has looked outstanding after some early struggles. I don't know what he did (I might be able to get some answers soon), but he turned his season around. For his ERA to be down below 4.00 after where it was less than a month ago is pretty impressive.
I think it’s a bit early to judge the coaching staff harshly. They’ve only worked with the players since February and the talent on the staff is suspect. All the coaching in the world cannot make good pitchers out of shit.
I agree that it’s WAY too early for something as big as this undertaking is. Changing an entire organizational philosophy isn’t quick.
No, the coaches get all through next year. As I’ve mentioned, I love this experiement because there is no debate. It’s a talent issue at the major league level at least. The question is JJ…and I don’t have anything against him besides wishing everyone from the last 15 years was out and all fresh eyes were in. But that’s a Sherman thing. If he told Sherman this was going to happen….ok. But if he told Sherman they were closer than this….and that Lyles was worth X….he’s got some issues. But David already knows how I feel about JJ…and he’s getting into it with others already this morning. LOL…we’ll leave this one alone.
I will say that JJ was never shy about what this season was. It was something that I noted was different about him. He was pretty honest that they weren't going to make moves to win four more games and get them to 75 (wishful thinking now, but not in January) or whatever. I think they've been pretty clear they didn't see this team as a winner. The degree of ineptitude only matters so much at that point.
Yeah, I listen to the Kaufman corner podcast that Rany and Soren do each week. I side with Rany more on this issue. But everyone is 100% right in that JJ didn’t say they were going to win this year…and he told Sherman it would be more this way than the other…then he’s fine. Those conversations we’ll just never know about.
We obviously won’t know what’s said behind closed doors, but in my experience, the message said publicly is tamed down at least 30% and maybe more. Based on what was said publicly, I’d imagine even a 13-32 record isn’t a huge shock.
A couple of things popped to me in this game. First, despite Wacha’s dominance I have confidence in our hitters that I just haven’t had in the past. They work counts (other than Witt, even Salvy has joined in on the fun and seems a bit more selective), they hunt for pitches, and they hit for power. Mikael’s frozen rope double to straightaway CF shows his prodigious upside and he has me convinced that he can be a long term piece at either SS or 3B. Second, poor Q. You can tell the man has ideas such as lineup construction when he goes R-R-L-R-R-L-R-R-R against a righty because of theoretical bullpen matchups later. But his ideas are just that because he doesn’t have the horses to make it go. Same thing with the pitching, openers and solid use of relievers such as the way he can manage a bullpen with a lead and the use of Max Castillo. Finally, and you may not want to touch on this due to the nature of the conversation, but Hudler’s thinly veiled racism towards Tatis and Soto this series has been unacceptable. The way he talked about Tatis and his PED suspension was the stuff that Master’s level papers on the difference in the way the media covers athletes of different races is made of. Then being upset at Soto’s shimmy and digging into the batting box to the point that Ryan had to ask him him if he’s ok. Just upsetting that in 2023 those comments are still being made.
I totally agree with you on the offense. Sometimes a pitcher is just great and I think Wacha was just great on Monday. It happens. It's much easier to accept that when they scored six the day before and five the day after than when a great performance is sandwiched between like three runs total, but still. I agree that this isn't Q's ideal roster and I think he knew that would be the case coming in, but also had a pretty good idea they'd get to his ideal roster in time. Same is definitely true with the pitching staff, though it's nice to see the power arms in the bullpen getting all those strikeouts.
To your second point, I don't know if this is a skill I've developed or if I just don't pay close enough attention, but I often tune out the broadcast pretty well. I'd say it's the baby often on my lap during games, but I've been doing it for years. And I truly couldn't tell you anything Hudler has said other than when he noted that Soto doesn't want to swing on Monday night. So I'm not saying you're wrong or right, but I'm saying I have no idea. I'll try to pay closer attention this afternoon though and might come back with some thoughts if it comes up again. But I also can't promise that my reflex won't kick in and I'll continue to tune out the broadcast haha.
Agreed that he knew what he was getting into and I’m sure he’s assessing who he can make things work with and who he can’t. And my god, the OF defense last night. *vomit*
It’s a special night when all three outfielders make big mistakes.
Just want to say thanks again for doing this newsletter David. It's not easy to do level-headed analysis when the team in the aggregate is performing so poorly, so it's nice clicking the ItC link most mornings knowing I can expect good analysis and usually pretty reasonable takes, especially when a good chunk of the fanbase is understandably negative about the results.
Hey, it's what I'm here for! Thanks so much for reading and commenting!
Wow, was tonight overcoming adversity or did we get lucky with a great pitcher having an off night?
Either way I am happy, I just still can't figure out why this team makes every game seem like we have a chance and seem like we don't suk. Why am I so invested in this team?
Is it coaching? Or just the resilience of youth? I am so impressed with the way these guys keep battling- It seems impossible not to root for them.