Not to blow my own horn (well, maybe a little) but in the fifth inning Tuesday night we saw once again what happens when MJ tries to field ground balls off to his left side instead of getting in front of the ball as he should - as I predicted here just a few days ago. I turned the game on just in time to see that and the resulting Padres run, and turned it off again just as quickly.
We're over 25% of the way through the season. The primary starters have been Lyles, Greinke, Keller, Singer, and Yarbrough. All five have a significantly worse FIP this year than last year. Four of them also have a significantly worse ERA+. (Singer's ERA+ has dropped from 125 last year to 63. Lyles has seen his FIP balloon from 4.40 to 6.40.)
Most of the much-ballyhood class of '18 is MIA, though Lynch is said to be returning soon. (That may be a good thing or it may not. We'll find out soon enough.) Is there ANY pitcher of note on the staff who can be said to be significantly better this year than last?
Is it too soon to point out that whatever the cause of this latest debacle, Matheny and Eldred aren't responsible for it? Explain to me again how this latest crew of pitching coaches are supposed to be genius miracle workers…??? Opposing hitters have rendered their verdict and so far it's almost universally negative.
This is big-league baseball; spin rates and pitch shapes and release points and pitch charts and slogans like "raid the zone" etc. are all fine but empirical real-world outcomes trump all of them. Especially in the case of this unforgivably bad starting rotation, in which every single pitcher is worse than he was last year.
IDK, not a whole lot about this game registered with me. It’s actually kinda reassuring to see what you expected going into the season. Singer was good (agree something is still off though and I’m not confident he keeps this up), defense was little league bad at times, offense was average to above average (I’ll take 5 runs), and bullpen was good.
I know it’s too early, but man. I keep tabs on the Cardinals a bit too….they’ve got so many young outfielders they had to send down their best prospect who was actually hitting in Walker. The Cards and Royals match up so well for Singer. I’m not saying Walker per se…but they are so desperate for starting pitching over there….you would think if Singer can get right that would be an ideal match.
Big shout out to Engel and Odor for getting picked off and making sure that Barlow wasn't forced to face Tatis and Cronenworth in the ninth.
Barlow, the above snark aside, has been really good for several weeks now. We won't talk about the fact that this game probably should have ended 5-1 or 5-2 at worst (yikes!).
I won't pretend that I watch the San Diego Padres daily, but if this series is any indication of their baserunning acumen--well, it's certainly one explanation how they're 20-23.
I think it’s a bit early to judge the coaching staff harshly. They’ve only worked with the players since February and the talent on the staff is suspect. All the coaching in the world cannot make good pitchers out of shit.
A couple of things popped to me in this game. First, despite Wacha’s dominance I have confidence in our hitters that I just haven’t had in the past. They work counts (other than Witt, even Salvy has joined in on the fun and seems a bit more selective), they hunt for pitches, and they hit for power. Mikael’s frozen rope double to straightaway CF shows his prodigious upside and he has me convinced that he can be a long term piece at either SS or 3B. Second, poor Q. You can tell the man has ideas such as lineup construction when he goes R-R-L-R-R-L-R-R-R against a righty because of theoretical bullpen matchups later. But his ideas are just that because he doesn’t have the horses to make it go. Same thing with the pitching, openers and solid use of relievers such as the way he can manage a bullpen with a lead and the use of Max Castillo. Finally, and you may not want to touch on this due to the nature of the conversation, but Hudler’s thinly veiled racism towards Tatis and Soto this series has been unacceptable. The way he talked about Tatis and his PED suspension was the stuff that Master’s level papers on the difference in the way the media covers athletes of different races is made of. Then being upset at Soto’s shimmy and digging into the batting box to the point that Ryan had to ask him him if he’s ok. Just upsetting that in 2023 those comments are still being made.
Just want to say thanks again for doing this newsletter David. It's not easy to do level-headed analysis when the team in the aggregate is performing so poorly, so it's nice clicking the ItC link most mornings knowing I can expect good analysis and usually pretty reasonable takes, especially when a good chunk of the fanbase is understandably negative about the results.
Wow, was tonight overcoming adversity or did we get lucky with a great pitcher having an off night?
Either way I am happy, I just still can't figure out why this team makes every game seem like we have a chance and seem like we don't suk. Why am I so invested in this team?
Is it coaching? Or just the resilience of youth? I am so impressed with the way these guys keep battling- It seems impossible not to root for them.
Not to blow my own horn (well, maybe a little) but in the fifth inning Tuesday night we saw once again what happens when MJ tries to field ground balls off to his left side instead of getting in front of the ball as he should - as I predicted here just a few days ago. I turned the game on just in time to see that and the resulting Padres run, and turned it off again just as quickly.
We're over 25% of the way through the season. The primary starters have been Lyles, Greinke, Keller, Singer, and Yarbrough. All five have a significantly worse FIP this year than last year. Four of them also have a significantly worse ERA+. (Singer's ERA+ has dropped from 125 last year to 63. Lyles has seen his FIP balloon from 4.40 to 6.40.)
Most of the much-ballyhood class of '18 is MIA, though Lynch is said to be returning soon. (That may be a good thing or it may not. We'll find out soon enough.) Is there ANY pitcher of note on the staff who can be said to be significantly better this year than last?
Is it too soon to point out that whatever the cause of this latest debacle, Matheny and Eldred aren't responsible for it? Explain to me again how this latest crew of pitching coaches are supposed to be genius miracle workers…??? Opposing hitters have rendered their verdict and so far it's almost universally negative.
This is big-league baseball; spin rates and pitch shapes and release points and pitch charts and slogans like "raid the zone" etc. are all fine but empirical real-world outcomes trump all of them. Especially in the case of this unforgivably bad starting rotation, in which every single pitcher is worse than he was last year.
IDK, not a whole lot about this game registered with me. It’s actually kinda reassuring to see what you expected going into the season. Singer was good (agree something is still off though and I’m not confident he keeps this up), defense was little league bad at times, offense was average to above average (I’ll take 5 runs), and bullpen was good.
I know it’s too early, but man. I keep tabs on the Cardinals a bit too….they’ve got so many young outfielders they had to send down their best prospect who was actually hitting in Walker. The Cards and Royals match up so well for Singer. I’m not saying Walker per se…but they are so desperate for starting pitching over there….you would think if Singer can get right that would be an ideal match.
Big shout out to Engel and Odor for getting picked off and making sure that Barlow wasn't forced to face Tatis and Cronenworth in the ninth.
Barlow, the above snark aside, has been really good for several weeks now. We won't talk about the fact that this game probably should have ended 5-1 or 5-2 at worst (yikes!).
I won't pretend that I watch the San Diego Padres daily, but if this series is any indication of their baserunning acumen--well, it's certainly one explanation how they're 20-23.
I think it’s a bit early to judge the coaching staff harshly. They’ve only worked with the players since February and the talent on the staff is suspect. All the coaching in the world cannot make good pitchers out of shit.
A couple of things popped to me in this game. First, despite Wacha’s dominance I have confidence in our hitters that I just haven’t had in the past. They work counts (other than Witt, even Salvy has joined in on the fun and seems a bit more selective), they hunt for pitches, and they hit for power. Mikael’s frozen rope double to straightaway CF shows his prodigious upside and he has me convinced that he can be a long term piece at either SS or 3B. Second, poor Q. You can tell the man has ideas such as lineup construction when he goes R-R-L-R-R-L-R-R-R against a righty because of theoretical bullpen matchups later. But his ideas are just that because he doesn’t have the horses to make it go. Same thing with the pitching, openers and solid use of relievers such as the way he can manage a bullpen with a lead and the use of Max Castillo. Finally, and you may not want to touch on this due to the nature of the conversation, but Hudler’s thinly veiled racism towards Tatis and Soto this series has been unacceptable. The way he talked about Tatis and his PED suspension was the stuff that Master’s level papers on the difference in the way the media covers athletes of different races is made of. Then being upset at Soto’s shimmy and digging into the batting box to the point that Ryan had to ask him him if he’s ok. Just upsetting that in 2023 those comments are still being made.
Just want to say thanks again for doing this newsletter David. It's not easy to do level-headed analysis when the team in the aggregate is performing so poorly, so it's nice clicking the ItC link most mornings knowing I can expect good analysis and usually pretty reasonable takes, especially when a good chunk of the fanbase is understandably negative about the results.
Wow, was tonight overcoming adversity or did we get lucky with a great pitcher having an off night?
Either way I am happy, I just still can't figure out why this team makes every game seem like we have a chance and seem like we don't suk. Why am I so invested in this team?
Is it coaching? Or just the resilience of youth? I am so impressed with the way these guys keep battling- It seems impossible not to root for them.