Good analysis, David. I think the Royals benefitted from the stars aligning: Santana got hot lately, and Seattle suddenly needed a first baseman due to injury. Without those two things, Santana would have been no better than a DFA...and the Royals being the Royals, might have just held onto him the rest of the year. I'm excited they got anything for him, and moreso that Vinnie is here!
On another note, wasn't Kowar fun to watch, and SO typical of the young Royal pitchers? We get glimpses from each of them, tantalizing dominating performances before they blow up the next time out. The inconsistency is so frustrating. Not even going to start with why Cal Eldred still has a job...
I will say that I feel pretty confident that if Santana hadn't started hitting, he'd have been DFAed sometime around now anyway, but it worked out pretty well for them that he got going.
And you know I'm not going to argue with you about Cal.
Thanks David. This may not be your expertise but what are you hearing on the royals farm system right now after all these guys come up? Seems like a decent time to ask as the big league club still have A NUMBER of holes to fill. I’ve heard about Pratto, Vinny, and Massey here lately but haven’t heard about other names. Assuming that means they aren’t doing that well but Lacy, Zerpa…haven’t heard much about pitchers in general to be honest. With these guys graduating this year….is there concern about a crop coming up after this group that can help or are they going to have to spend some money on some pieces yet?
The system has obviously taken a hit, but for a good reason. If you have a top-10 system (which the Royals were to start the year, but fall to bottom-10 because the big league roster is filled with rookies who made the system what it was, I feel okay about that. Pratto and Massey are still there, but some names you don't hear much about in AA are Tyler Gentry (third round pick in 2020), Tucker Bradley (undrafted in 2020 but would have been like a sixth or seventh rounder probably if they didn't shorten the draft), Nick Loftin (first rounder in 2020), Maikel Garcia (international signee) and John Rave (fifth rounder in 2019). I'll also say that the organization REALLY likes Nate Eaton. He was a 21st round pick in 2018 and is hitting .316/.383/.579 in 107 PA in AAA. That's probably above his level a bit, but he can play a lot of different positions. In A-ball, Luca Tresh (17th rounder last year from NC State that nobody expected to sign) has looked good.
The pitching side is a little thinner, partially because a lot of those guys have been promoted. Asa Lacy had a back issue and is working his way back. I'm told they believe once he gets back, he can skyrocket, but I'll believe it when I see it. Alec Marsh has had some weird issues where the stuff is right but he's just getting hit a bit. They believe they know what's wrong and can fix it, but it's in progress (and I think I actually trust the minor league staff given what we've seen from some of these guys when they come up). Zerpa has struggled some, but the Royals Farm guys really like Anthony Veneziano in AA. I'm not quite as high on him, but they're much more in tune with the prospects than me, so maybe I'm off. Oh, almost forgot Drew Parrish. He's struggled a bit since the AAA promotion, but I like him quite a bit too. And Jonathan Bowlan is back pitching and I imagine they'll put him in AA when he's ready to go.
So the cupboard is still stocked pretty well, but they'll need someone to step up to get back some of the star power that's now in the big leagues. I have complete faith in the offensive development moving forward. I'm concerned about the pitching because they just haven't shown it, but, like I said, seeing what some of the changes they've made have shown just to guys sent down makes me believe there's at least a plan in place, so I'm willing to give that a fair shake too. They're still missing some spots. I'm not sure they have a third baseman unless they believe Garcia is so good at shortstop that BWJ moves back to third, which isn't the worst thing. I think they're missing a center fielder unless they really buy that Loftin can stick there or Rave can take that next step offensively. Though there is Diego Hernandez in high-A looking really good, so maybe he's the guy who takes that step to top-100 guy.
My guess is they fall pretty far in the midseason rankings, but I wouldn't be surprised if they're back in the top half by next year's midseason rankings.
A big day for the Royals and yes, the loss was incidental. With the emphasis now strongly on rebuilding with young prospects, I think it's time for us fans to suspend any criticism of the team as a whole. Sure, there are bad performances, but the rebuild is starting to more closely resemble the rebuild in Houston years ago and the more recent rebuild in Baltimore. The Orioles are assured of having their first winning month since August, 2017. I mention them because living in Virginia Beach, we get all their games on TV. The Nat's games too. This is definitely a player development year for the Royals. Let's hope they just don't sign any more aging blockers. Thinking back to when I came to KC after college in 1973, they have a history of bringing in old, well past their prime veterans. Examples from the 1970's include Lindy McDaniel, Vada Pinson, Harmon Killebrew, George Scott , Jose Cardinal (1979 or 1980) and more. More recent are Chris Getz, Chris Owings, someone named Goings too , Omar Infante and Santana. These players were all brought in to squeeze a win or two extra out of a very bad Teams. The Royals no longer need those type of players. Let the kids play!
Eh, criticism is warranted. I don’t mind the rebuild or the direction if they commit to it as much as I mind being sold a bill of goods that was absolutely false by the front office. Who miraculously, are going to move the goalposts back another two years. They don’t get a free pass anymore.
I see your point when it comes to Dayton and JJ. I was just thinking the players don't need to be booed. I'm not sure the goal posts have moved back a full two years. Time will tell, but I think next year could see them at .500. When I implore them not to sign any blocking veterans, the once exception I would make is to the pitching staff. The youngsters have all been very inconsistent and you can add starters and relievers on the fly and see if they are better than the prospects now pitching. They should bring in free agent pitchers every year. This is especially true since the Royals don't seem to be good at developing them. If they do develop them, they tend to regress after some initial success in the majors. As for Cal Eldred, yes, he needs to go.
I think criticism is still reasonable, but for different reasons. If Vinnie goes 0 for 12 in a series, oh well, he's developing. If pitching as a whole continues to regress, Cal gets the blame. If the clubhouse is in peril, Matheny gets the blame. But I agree that development is ALL that matters at this point.
Since we're talkin' trades and such…If you believe the Royals will be a contender in '24 or '25, it's worth keeping in mind that there's a pretty reasonable chance that Benintendi will still be at or near the top of his game then. (He'll turn 30 halfway through the '25 season, and having a 30-year-old LF worked out pretty well in 2015.) Given that, I think there's a legit case to be made for not trading him. It's not as if he's blocking anybody the way Santana was.
As always it depends on what they could get for him in return and what it would cost to keep him around. My preference would be to trade him - for bats, not arms! The organization clearly is MUCH better right now at developing hitters than pitchers.
But if they decide to hang on to him I could understand it, even if I wasn't overly enthusiastic about it. I can definitely see him being a "veteran leader on a young team" kind of guy. The one thing they can't do is hang on to him until the end of the season, and then watch him just walk away. (I say "can't" but we all know they're fully capable of it.)
Michael A Taylor? Trade him, NOW, and get whatever you can for him before he reverts back to the mean!
The only legit case to not trade Benintendi is if they sign him to a long-term deal because he's a free agent after the season and they will lose him with literally no return if and when he leaves. And he'll be the second-best free agent outfielder at a perfect age, so the odds of him signing long-term are non-zero, but not far from zero.
Yep, that's why I said the one thing they can't do is just watch him walk away at the end of the season. I can see this turning into a Hosmer-like situation: they offer him more than anybody thinks they could or would, then somebody else swoops in with an even bigger offer. If they're going to keep him here they need to get it done before the trade deadline!
If they don't have a deal in place by the deadline, he absolutely has to be traded. They CANNOT risk him getting to free agency at all. And I would bet you his eventual contract that he won't have a deal in place by the deadline. There is literally no reason to risk losing him for nothing. If you want him bad enough, trade him and try to get him back in free agency. The only world where the Royals should keep Benintendi is a world that likely doesn't exist.
They would love to keep him, but I don’t think there’s interest on his end at this point. Guys who get this close to free agency don’t typically forego that.
I know they have been bad anyway, but I am eternally grateful to the Padres for keeping Moore from re-signing Hosmer. First the Padres have paid him over $90 million for 3.7 WAR. Secondly, where we are today, could you imagine the guy blocking first base being a 32 year old Hosmer who is still owed another $50 million +?
Nice article. The Royals don't have a big budget, so it's nice to hear they made some good moves. I'm still more concerned about the pitching coach and manager and often wonder if some players don't give their all because of bad management. After all, what's the point of risking a career ending injury to satisfy a manager who was let go by the Cardinals? I read where his poor win/loss record and inability to get along with the players was the cause for his firing. He needs to straighten up or hit the road.
Speaking of Tuesday's game all I can say is "Man! Have the Royals got some bad pitchers or what?" Really, only Greinke and Singer give them a reasonable chance to win.
I really, really, really HATE the idea of putting a guy at DH for his first MLB game. Giving him an hour to sit around and obsess about his next AB (or the previous one) is dumb stupid foolish idiotic absurd. Letting him play in the field would give him a whole lot less time to do that and a whole lot more other stuff to think about. Even if he's a Billy Butler-style defensive catastrophe - which, by all reports, Vinnie isn't.
Geez, Matheny, let the guy put a glove on and play an actual position so he can feel like a damn ballplayer instead of the baseball version of a placekicker! If for some unfathomable reason you just HAVE to DH him, let him get a few real MLB ballgames under his belt first.
I really, really, really HATE the idea of putting a guy at DH for his first MLB game. Giving him an hour to sit around and obsess about his next AB (or the previous one) is dumb stupid foolish idiotic absurd. Letting him play in the field would give him a whole lot less time to do that and a whole lot more other stuff to think about. Even if he's a Billy Butler-style defensive catastrophe - which, by all reports, Vinnie isn't.
Geez, Matheny, let the guy put a glove on and play an actual position so he can feel like a damn ballplayer instead of the baseball version of a placekicker! If for some unfathomable reason you just HAVE to DH him, let him get a few real MLB ballgames under his belt first.
Considering Michael Massey hasn't been overwhelmed since his promotion to Triple A I believe there is a possibility that he reaches the majors this year. So, doesn't his imminent arrival make either Lopez or Merrifield expendable? If so, I have a strong hunch that Whit Merrifield will be traded at or before the deadline. I'd keep Lopez since he's cratered compared to last year unless the Royals believe that those numbers were an aberration.
Massey will need to be added to the 40-man this winter, so it wouldn't surprise me too much if he comes up, but both Pratto and Melendez were in the same boat last year and didn't get the call. Of course, it was a slightly different roster situation. I think the likelihood Merrifield gets traded is higher than it's ever been before, but he's also having his worst season, so it's hard to say if the Royals will get what they believe they should for him even if what they believe they should get isn't realistic.
Good analysis, David. I think the Royals benefitted from the stars aligning: Santana got hot lately, and Seattle suddenly needed a first baseman due to injury. Without those two things, Santana would have been no better than a DFA...and the Royals being the Royals, might have just held onto him the rest of the year. I'm excited they got anything for him, and moreso that Vinnie is here!
On another note, wasn't Kowar fun to watch, and SO typical of the young Royal pitchers? We get glimpses from each of them, tantalizing dominating performances before they blow up the next time out. The inconsistency is so frustrating. Not even going to start with why Cal Eldred still has a job...
I will say that I feel pretty confident that if Santana hadn't started hitting, he'd have been DFAed sometime around now anyway, but it worked out pretty well for them that he got going.
And you know I'm not going to argue with you about Cal.
Thanks David. This may not be your expertise but what are you hearing on the royals farm system right now after all these guys come up? Seems like a decent time to ask as the big league club still have A NUMBER of holes to fill. I’ve heard about Pratto, Vinny, and Massey here lately but haven’t heard about other names. Assuming that means they aren’t doing that well but Lacy, Zerpa…haven’t heard much about pitchers in general to be honest. With these guys graduating this year….is there concern about a crop coming up after this group that can help or are they going to have to spend some money on some pieces yet?
The system has obviously taken a hit, but for a good reason. If you have a top-10 system (which the Royals were to start the year, but fall to bottom-10 because the big league roster is filled with rookies who made the system what it was, I feel okay about that. Pratto and Massey are still there, but some names you don't hear much about in AA are Tyler Gentry (third round pick in 2020), Tucker Bradley (undrafted in 2020 but would have been like a sixth or seventh rounder probably if they didn't shorten the draft), Nick Loftin (first rounder in 2020), Maikel Garcia (international signee) and John Rave (fifth rounder in 2019). I'll also say that the organization REALLY likes Nate Eaton. He was a 21st round pick in 2018 and is hitting .316/.383/.579 in 107 PA in AAA. That's probably above his level a bit, but he can play a lot of different positions. In A-ball, Luca Tresh (17th rounder last year from NC State that nobody expected to sign) has looked good.
The pitching side is a little thinner, partially because a lot of those guys have been promoted. Asa Lacy had a back issue and is working his way back. I'm told they believe once he gets back, he can skyrocket, but I'll believe it when I see it. Alec Marsh has had some weird issues where the stuff is right but he's just getting hit a bit. They believe they know what's wrong and can fix it, but it's in progress (and I think I actually trust the minor league staff given what we've seen from some of these guys when they come up). Zerpa has struggled some, but the Royals Farm guys really like Anthony Veneziano in AA. I'm not quite as high on him, but they're much more in tune with the prospects than me, so maybe I'm off. Oh, almost forgot Drew Parrish. He's struggled a bit since the AAA promotion, but I like him quite a bit too. And Jonathan Bowlan is back pitching and I imagine they'll put him in AA when he's ready to go.
So the cupboard is still stocked pretty well, but they'll need someone to step up to get back some of the star power that's now in the big leagues. I have complete faith in the offensive development moving forward. I'm concerned about the pitching because they just haven't shown it, but, like I said, seeing what some of the changes they've made have shown just to guys sent down makes me believe there's at least a plan in place, so I'm willing to give that a fair shake too. They're still missing some spots. I'm not sure they have a third baseman unless they believe Garcia is so good at shortstop that BWJ moves back to third, which isn't the worst thing. I think they're missing a center fielder unless they really buy that Loftin can stick there or Rave can take that next step offensively. Though there is Diego Hernandez in high-A looking really good, so maybe he's the guy who takes that step to top-100 guy.
My guess is they fall pretty far in the midseason rankings, but I wouldn't be surprised if they're back in the top half by next year's midseason rankings.
A big day for the Royals and yes, the loss was incidental. With the emphasis now strongly on rebuilding with young prospects, I think it's time for us fans to suspend any criticism of the team as a whole. Sure, there are bad performances, but the rebuild is starting to more closely resemble the rebuild in Houston years ago and the more recent rebuild in Baltimore. The Orioles are assured of having their first winning month since August, 2017. I mention them because living in Virginia Beach, we get all their games on TV. The Nat's games too. This is definitely a player development year for the Royals. Let's hope they just don't sign any more aging blockers. Thinking back to when I came to KC after college in 1973, they have a history of bringing in old, well past their prime veterans. Examples from the 1970's include Lindy McDaniel, Vada Pinson, Harmon Killebrew, George Scott , Jose Cardinal (1979 or 1980) and more. More recent are Chris Getz, Chris Owings, someone named Goings too , Omar Infante and Santana. These players were all brought in to squeeze a win or two extra out of a very bad Teams. The Royals no longer need those type of players. Let the kids play!
Eh, criticism is warranted. I don’t mind the rebuild or the direction if they commit to it as much as I mind being sold a bill of goods that was absolutely false by the front office. Who miraculously, are going to move the goalposts back another two years. They don’t get a free pass anymore.
I see your point when it comes to Dayton and JJ. I was just thinking the players don't need to be booed. I'm not sure the goal posts have moved back a full two years. Time will tell, but I think next year could see them at .500. When I implore them not to sign any blocking veterans, the once exception I would make is to the pitching staff. The youngsters have all been very inconsistent and you can add starters and relievers on the fly and see if they are better than the prospects now pitching. They should bring in free agent pitchers every year. This is especially true since the Royals don't seem to be good at developing them. If they do develop them, they tend to regress after some initial success in the majors. As for Cal Eldred, yes, he needs to go.
I think criticism is still reasonable, but for different reasons. If Vinnie goes 0 for 12 in a series, oh well, he's developing. If pitching as a whole continues to regress, Cal gets the blame. If the clubhouse is in peril, Matheny gets the blame. But I agree that development is ALL that matters at this point.
Since we're talkin' trades and such…If you believe the Royals will be a contender in '24 or '25, it's worth keeping in mind that there's a pretty reasonable chance that Benintendi will still be at or near the top of his game then. (He'll turn 30 halfway through the '25 season, and having a 30-year-old LF worked out pretty well in 2015.) Given that, I think there's a legit case to be made for not trading him. It's not as if he's blocking anybody the way Santana was.
As always it depends on what they could get for him in return and what it would cost to keep him around. My preference would be to trade him - for bats, not arms! The organization clearly is MUCH better right now at developing hitters than pitchers.
But if they decide to hang on to him I could understand it, even if I wasn't overly enthusiastic about it. I can definitely see him being a "veteran leader on a young team" kind of guy. The one thing they can't do is hang on to him until the end of the season, and then watch him just walk away. (I say "can't" but we all know they're fully capable of it.)
Michael A Taylor? Trade him, NOW, and get whatever you can for him before he reverts back to the mean!
The only legit case to not trade Benintendi is if they sign him to a long-term deal because he's a free agent after the season and they will lose him with literally no return if and when he leaves. And he'll be the second-best free agent outfielder at a perfect age, so the odds of him signing long-term are non-zero, but not far from zero.
Yep, that's why I said the one thing they can't do is just watch him walk away at the end of the season. I can see this turning into a Hosmer-like situation: they offer him more than anybody thinks they could or would, then somebody else swoops in with an even bigger offer. If they're going to keep him here they need to get it done before the trade deadline!
If they don't have a deal in place by the deadline, he absolutely has to be traded. They CANNOT risk him getting to free agency at all. And I would bet you his eventual contract that he won't have a deal in place by the deadline. There is literally no reason to risk losing him for nothing. If you want him bad enough, trade him and try to get him back in free agency. The only world where the Royals should keep Benintendi is a world that likely doesn't exist.
Do you know of any reason to believe they're making a serious effort to keep him around long-term? (Or reason to believe that they're going to?)
They would love to keep him, but I don’t think there’s interest on his end at this point. Guys who get this close to free agency don’t typically forego that.
I know they have been bad anyway, but I am eternally grateful to the Padres for keeping Moore from re-signing Hosmer. First the Padres have paid him over $90 million for 3.7 WAR. Secondly, where we are today, could you imagine the guy blocking first base being a 32 year old Hosmer who is still owed another $50 million +?
Nice article. The Royals don't have a big budget, so it's nice to hear they made some good moves. I'm still more concerned about the pitching coach and manager and often wonder if some players don't give their all because of bad management. After all, what's the point of risking a career ending injury to satisfy a manager who was let go by the Cardinals? I read where his poor win/loss record and inability to get along with the players was the cause for his firing. He needs to straighten up or hit the road.
Speaking of Tuesday's game all I can say is "Man! Have the Royals got some bad pitchers or what?" Really, only Greinke and Singer give them a reasonable chance to win.
I really, really, really HATE the idea of putting a guy at DH for his first MLB game. Giving him an hour to sit around and obsess about his next AB (or the previous one) is dumb stupid foolish idiotic absurd. Letting him play in the field would give him a whole lot less time to do that and a whole lot more other stuff to think about. Even if he's a Billy Butler-style defensive catastrophe - which, by all reports, Vinnie isn't.
Geez, Matheny, let the guy put a glove on and play an actual position so he can feel like a damn ballplayer instead of the baseball version of a placekicker! If for some unfathomable reason you just HAVE to DH him, let him get a few real MLB ballgames under his belt first.
I really, really, really HATE the idea of putting a guy at DH for his first MLB game. Giving him an hour to sit around and obsess about his next AB (or the previous one) is dumb stupid foolish idiotic absurd. Letting him play in the field would give him a whole lot less time to do that and a whole lot more other stuff to think about. Even if he's a Billy Butler-style defensive catastrophe - which, by all reports, Vinnie isn't.
Geez, Matheny, let the guy put a glove on and play an actual position so he can feel like a damn ballplayer instead of the baseball version of a placekicker! If for some unfathomable reason you just HAVE to DH him, let him get a few real MLB ballgames under his belt first.
Considering Michael Massey hasn't been overwhelmed since his promotion to Triple A I believe there is a possibility that he reaches the majors this year. So, doesn't his imminent arrival make either Lopez or Merrifield expendable? If so, I have a strong hunch that Whit Merrifield will be traded at or before the deadline. I'd keep Lopez since he's cratered compared to last year unless the Royals believe that those numbers were an aberration.
Massey will need to be added to the 40-man this winter, so it wouldn't surprise me too much if he comes up, but both Pratto and Melendez were in the same boat last year and didn't get the call. Of course, it was a slightly different roster situation. I think the likelihood Merrifield gets traded is higher than it's ever been before, but he's also having his worst season, so it's hard to say if the Royals will get what they believe they should for him even if what they believe they should get isn't realistic.