Great article, David. Love the Brian Bannister idea and hope they find some way to make it happen. Also, agree 100% that simple lack of command and lack of first pitch strikes resulted in opposing hitters knowing they can just wait us out to get/stay ahead in the count. Our guys are too often pitching from a defensive POV. That must be fixed by the new regime - you simply can't win with the pitching we had this year. Keep up the good work!
There definitely was rarely a *need* to swing against the Royals. The race to three strikes or four balls seemed like it was in the hitter's favor far too often. It'll be a lot easier to evaluate how likely change is moving forward once we see who they hire. At least once we get some data under a new pitching regime, we can know for certain if they have the right pieces in place. I still think they have more than we realize, but the results will tell me if I'm right or wrong and maybe even pretty quickly once the season gets going.
I seem to remember Bannister talking about tunneling when he was a pitcher for us. Can't find any mention of it in the RR archives, but... what might have been!
He definitely educated me in some of his radio appearances back then!
He also motivated me to go online and start digging around to find out what all the new terminology and acronyms meant. Even though I was a musician my favorite class in high school was "probability and statistics" and I had been hooked on stratomatic baseball at an early age. I never thought that the two would come together as they have!
I think it's because they know the royals pitchers lack command. I think it also because withe the exception of singer, no one on this team knows how to throw a decent slider. I'm used to a slider coming in at the knees and hitting the dirt and they hitter swinging over it. Today they call it a slider if it starts out over their head and drops ro the middle of the plate. I do not like the curveball. I think it's too easy to hang one and not many can throw a good one. Greinke can bubic can not. Another reason for the royals low strikeout rate is Greinke. He doesn't need them. I think strikeouts are a little overrated anyway. Kind of like homeruns. Learn to pitch just like hitters need to learn to hit
Great insight. My question.... swing and miss will create a higher pitch count, therefore not as deep into games. But any do others talk about pitch to contact? Announcers talk about the pace and pitching to contact, which I think is ideal in larger stadiums IF you have quality fielding. I would think there is a happy medium, swing and miss along with contact. Maybe the new coaches can find the balance.
Bannister is the obvious choice. Someone that has the credentials and knowledge that younger players can relate with. Let's hope they get someone soon and start making positive changes before the of season gets away.
I would argue with that assertion. Swing and miss *can* create a higher pitch count, but it doesn't have to. Think about how many 0-2 counts a guy like Lynch had that ended up at 3-2. If he can get a swing and miss on that pitch or the 1-2, he saves pitches. Ideally your perfect outcome is 81 pitches, 81 strikes and 27 strikeouts, but realistically some early-count outs are good to have. But there are many scenarios when being able to get a whiff instead of allowing multiple foul balls lowers the pitch count.
I wouldn't worry about the off-season getting away, though. It feels like it's been three months, but the season ended two weeks ago. Most players haven't even started anything big on their winter plans. They'll have someone (or someones) in place soon enough.
Foul balls.... Nice observation! I clearly recall getting frustrated with Danny Duffy as a million foul balls ran up his pitch count in game after game...
I would also pick Lynch as the most likely candidate to make a Singer-type jump going forward. Heasley intrigues me and I look forward to seeing what they both can do with better coaching. In fact, I believe you've made this point before, but it's hard to write off any of these guys yet given the coaching they were getting.
Absolutely on all of that. Can someone steal that Devil Magic back please? Darin, can you head that up?
Heasley is the one who I feel like could be one of those under-the-radar guys in another organization, but maybe the Royals can actually be that other organization with someone new helping him?
Obviously, your article points out the importance of this next pitching coach. I still think a overhaul of the entire development team needs to happen and we’ll see how that all shakes out.
Lets say Lynch improves on numbers from this year to get to average. which I don’t think is unreasonable. Maybe Heasley and Bubic improve a little bit. I guess I’m trying to see if even if that happens do we have the arms yet? Its chicken or egg situation a little bit. I know you’ve got people who like the arms yet we have. While improvement can be made I’m wondering how much can be made if that makes sense. I’m not convinced yet we have the right guys even with a new pitching coach. Only time will tell I guess.
Yeah, I mean we just can't know until changes are made. It's like anything in marketing. If you change two things and it works, you don't know which of the changes was the catalyst. But let's say Lynch takes the step to be a 3 and one of Heasley or Bubic is a 4/5. It's easy to say they don't have enough, but how many teams are running out five homegrown pitchers? Cleveland, sure, but they're the gold standard.
Tampa Bay had four starters make 20+ starts. They only drafted or signed internationally one of them. Seattle had a great rotation this year. Two are from their organization. The Blue Jays had one homegrown starter. Houston is up there with Cleveland. The Dodgers added Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney. The Padres entire rotation is acquired. The point is that it's easy to look and say they don't have five, but you don't have to five. You just can't have zero. Unless you're the Padres, I guess.
I guess I’m thinking we don’t need 4 homegrown starters. Everyone would love too. Teams have shown as you pointed out that you don’t need a whole pitching staff of homegrown starters. Singer is a great start. If he’s your home grown starter its a huge win. Its part of the reason I’m so frustrated hearing they aren’t going to spend money in FA. It could certainly be all lowering expectations. Or even if it is a trade…I don’t care. If you didn’t need Singer, Lynch, Bubic, Heasley, Kowar to ALL hit…..we would be looking at this group in a different way and probably a better way. GO GET AT LEAST ONE GOOD PITCHER!!!! Please be Gallen, please be Gallen.
I'd be very, very surprised if the Diamondbacks trade Gallen at this point. He had too good of a year and he doesn't make that much money. They feel like they're not that far away and trading Gallen takes them farther away. They could get blown away by an offer, but I don't think the Royals are able to blow them away without depleting the value they've built up. It just didn't work out.
As for the spending part, words are just words. They're not going to get Carlos Rodon. I wish they would, but they won't. But JJ has also said publicly (I believe on the Star podcast like right after Dayton was fired maybe) that they need to go get pitching.
I just don’t know how this group takes any steps forward if you don’t go and get a couple of decent starters. You have successfully moved the goalposts back a year or three…and Witt Jr’s clock is now ticking. Do I expect playoffs next year no…but at least get a starter or two and make an effort to get better. It can’t be a run it back with everyone again…and sell to me they will get better. I can stomach the offense will get better because of the rookies. Hard to stomach that and the pitching just because of a new coach you know? It can’t be run it back with everyone at it will all improve with another year of seasoning. We’ve seen that film for years now.
I was so frustrated watching Royals pitchers fail to punch out hitters. Even if they were lucky enough to work an 0-2 count, you could bet on them bouncing 3 straight sliders in the dirt before either walking the hitter or serving up a cookie. If i could figure this out, it's no wonder hitters stood with bats on their shoulders with impunity, waiting for the walk. I assumed this was the Cal Eldred philosophy as every pitcher that came to the big club eventually succumbed to this madness. How did that man keep his job so long while being so bad at it!?!
I can't answer how he kept his job for so long, but I can tell you it wasn't necessarily a philosophy to bounce pitches. The issue really is that they didn't (and still don't at this point but will) have anyone who was able to teach pitchers how to throw pitches that do elicit those swings and misses. It's kind of the same as the bad numbers after a mound visit. It's not so much that Cal was going out there and giving the guys bad advice as that when there's a mound visit, a pitcher is already in trouble. He just didn't know how to get them out of that trouble. And that's why they got hit more often after a visit. They just didn't have the proper instruction to help them the way other team do.
It sounds as if, with the right coaches etc, you still think there's hope for some of these issues to be fixed. While that's encouraging I have to wonder: can any coach fix a pitcher who never should have been drafted in the first place?
I think there's hope because scouts who know way more than me think there's hope. I'm curious who the pitcher is who you think shouldn't have been drafted in the first place, though.
Sure *they're* in the get it right business, but I think it becomes far too reactionary and, quite frankly, boring to just wait it out to determine right or wrong. People in the organization have paid already for not getting it right. To say that players who were rated extremely high heading into the draft didn't succeed so therefore it was wrong to draft them is a bit pedantic to me. The organization failed many of them in development, but again, prices have been paid for that and will continue to be paid if they don't develop.
😸 Ah, the impatience of youth! As a certified old dude, I don't think we have any choice but to wait a couple of years to see how these pitchers perform with the new coaches who are presumably on the way. Patience, my friend!
David - I fully understand your point about 2020 being a big blank spot for many of these youngish pitchers. It makes perfect sense, and I'm still not certain I buy it 100%. I buy it maybe more like 60%.
As I understand it, those guys were permitted to throw as many baseballs as they wanted during that year.
If the pitching coaches and development people were all as inept as we suspect, it may have been a good thing for them to have an opportunity to work more or less on their own or with other coaches they trusted. The question is, did they? And to what extent?
First, I only look at that a reason why they may have worn down at the end of the season, not why they haven't succeeded. Second, as I wrote, throwing baseballs and throwing in a competitive game against opponents are two extremely different things.
I have no doubt there's a lot of truth to that. There's also a lot of truth to this: I regularly hear coaches and pitchers talking about how they worked on something during a "bullpen" or "side session." Those are hardly competitive games against opponents.
I still wonder if there were or could have been any benefits for these pitchers in spending a year away from these inept coaches and possibly working with better coaches who they trusted more.
But they didn’t spend a year away. They were with the organization. It was the lockout they couldn’t have contact with anyone.
You can work on all sorts of things. I’m literally ONLY talking about them wearing down late this year as still being impacted from 2020.
Edit: I should say there’s more to it than just wearing down with someone like Bubic who made a jump that probably did him no favors. But for these purposes, I’m wondering if their lack of work for an entire year has impacted their season endurance.
I’m not trying to be a jerk, but I don’t know how many ways to say that they didn’t throw a competitive pitch. There is a big difference between pitching with a game on the line and pitching at an alternate site to your teammates.
I understand, and no offense taken! But my observations about the alleged value of "bullpens" and "side sessions" stand. If I want to develop a changeup or improve the location on my slider, I don't need anybody standing in the batter's box in order to work on that. Sure, opponents will put it to the test and give me feedback whether I like it or not. But typically that comes much, much later after much of the hard work is already done.
Makes sense. Watching the postseason pitching, it's sure frustrating watching pitchers mixing pitches between hard & fast to all 4 quadrants while Royals pitchers seemingly don't have the ability to consistently throw breaking balls for strikes.
It shows how far away a lot of these pitchers are. But it's just a question of if you believe in the talent and if it can shine with improved instruction.
Been saying this for years but catcher framing has more to do with pitchers hitting the target than anything. Lot of glove movement by the catcher is an easy way to get a ball called.
Great article, David. Love the Brian Bannister idea and hope they find some way to make it happen. Also, agree 100% that simple lack of command and lack of first pitch strikes resulted in opposing hitters knowing they can just wait us out to get/stay ahead in the count. Our guys are too often pitching from a defensive POV. That must be fixed by the new regime - you simply can't win with the pitching we had this year. Keep up the good work!
There definitely was rarely a *need* to swing against the Royals. The race to three strikes or four balls seemed like it was in the hitter's favor far too often. It'll be a lot easier to evaluate how likely change is moving forward once we see who they hire. At least once we get some data under a new pitching regime, we can know for certain if they have the right pieces in place. I still think they have more than we realize, but the results will tell me if I'm right or wrong and maybe even pretty quickly once the season gets going.
I seem to remember Bannister talking about tunneling when he was a pitcher for us. Can't find any mention of it in the RR archives, but... what might have been!
Oh yeah, he was very early on all of the stuff that’s super commonplace today.
He definitely educated me in some of his radio appearances back then!
He also motivated me to go online and start digging around to find out what all the new terminology and acronyms meant. Even though I was a musician my favorite class in high school was "probability and statistics" and I had been hooked on stratomatic baseball at an early age. I never thought that the two would come together as they have!
Nice work David. Thanks.
Appreciate you reading and taking the time to comment!
I think it's because they know the royals pitchers lack command. I think it also because withe the exception of singer, no one on this team knows how to throw a decent slider. I'm used to a slider coming in at the knees and hitting the dirt and they hitter swinging over it. Today they call it a slider if it starts out over their head and drops ro the middle of the plate. I do not like the curveball. I think it's too easy to hang one and not many can throw a good one. Greinke can bubic can not. Another reason for the royals low strikeout rate is Greinke. He doesn't need them. I think strikeouts are a little overrated anyway. Kind of like homeruns. Learn to pitch just like hitters need to learn to hit
Great insight. My question.... swing and miss will create a higher pitch count, therefore not as deep into games. But any do others talk about pitch to contact? Announcers talk about the pace and pitching to contact, which I think is ideal in larger stadiums IF you have quality fielding. I would think there is a happy medium, swing and miss along with contact. Maybe the new coaches can find the balance.
Bannister is the obvious choice. Someone that has the credentials and knowledge that younger players can relate with. Let's hope they get someone soon and start making positive changes before the of season gets away.
I would argue with that assertion. Swing and miss *can* create a higher pitch count, but it doesn't have to. Think about how many 0-2 counts a guy like Lynch had that ended up at 3-2. If he can get a swing and miss on that pitch or the 1-2, he saves pitches. Ideally your perfect outcome is 81 pitches, 81 strikes and 27 strikeouts, but realistically some early-count outs are good to have. But there are many scenarios when being able to get a whiff instead of allowing multiple foul balls lowers the pitch count.
I wouldn't worry about the off-season getting away, though. It feels like it's been three months, but the season ended two weeks ago. Most players haven't even started anything big on their winter plans. They'll have someone (or someones) in place soon enough.
Foul balls.... Nice observation! I clearly recall getting frustrated with Danny Duffy as a million foul balls ran up his pitch count in game after game...
Cardinals Devil Magic is real.
I would also pick Lynch as the most likely candidate to make a Singer-type jump going forward. Heasley intrigues me and I look forward to seeing what they both can do with better coaching. In fact, I believe you've made this point before, but it's hard to write off any of these guys yet given the coaching they were getting.
Absolutely on all of that. Can someone steal that Devil Magic back please? Darin, can you head that up?
Heasley is the one who I feel like could be one of those under-the-radar guys in another organization, but maybe the Royals can actually be that other organization with someone new helping him?
I'm on it.
Obviously, your article points out the importance of this next pitching coach. I still think a overhaul of the entire development team needs to happen and we’ll see how that all shakes out.
Lets say Lynch improves on numbers from this year to get to average. which I don’t think is unreasonable. Maybe Heasley and Bubic improve a little bit. I guess I’m trying to see if even if that happens do we have the arms yet? Its chicken or egg situation a little bit. I know you’ve got people who like the arms yet we have. While improvement can be made I’m wondering how much can be made if that makes sense. I’m not convinced yet we have the right guys even with a new pitching coach. Only time will tell I guess.
Yeah, I mean we just can't know until changes are made. It's like anything in marketing. If you change two things and it works, you don't know which of the changes was the catalyst. But let's say Lynch takes the step to be a 3 and one of Heasley or Bubic is a 4/5. It's easy to say they don't have enough, but how many teams are running out five homegrown pitchers? Cleveland, sure, but they're the gold standard.
Tampa Bay had four starters make 20+ starts. They only drafted or signed internationally one of them. Seattle had a great rotation this year. Two are from their organization. The Blue Jays had one homegrown starter. Houston is up there with Cleveland. The Dodgers added Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney. The Padres entire rotation is acquired. The point is that it's easy to look and say they don't have five, but you don't have to five. You just can't have zero. Unless you're the Padres, I guess.
I guess I’m thinking we don’t need 4 homegrown starters. Everyone would love too. Teams have shown as you pointed out that you don’t need a whole pitching staff of homegrown starters. Singer is a great start. If he’s your home grown starter its a huge win. Its part of the reason I’m so frustrated hearing they aren’t going to spend money in FA. It could certainly be all lowering expectations. Or even if it is a trade…I don’t care. If you didn’t need Singer, Lynch, Bubic, Heasley, Kowar to ALL hit…..we would be looking at this group in a different way and probably a better way. GO GET AT LEAST ONE GOOD PITCHER!!!! Please be Gallen, please be Gallen.
I'd be very, very surprised if the Diamondbacks trade Gallen at this point. He had too good of a year and he doesn't make that much money. They feel like they're not that far away and trading Gallen takes them farther away. They could get blown away by an offer, but I don't think the Royals are able to blow them away without depleting the value they've built up. It just didn't work out.
As for the spending part, words are just words. They're not going to get Carlos Rodon. I wish they would, but they won't. But JJ has also said publicly (I believe on the Star podcast like right after Dayton was fired maybe) that they need to go get pitching.
I just don’t know how this group takes any steps forward if you don’t go and get a couple of decent starters. You have successfully moved the goalposts back a year or three…and Witt Jr’s clock is now ticking. Do I expect playoffs next year no…but at least get a starter or two and make an effort to get better. It can’t be a run it back with everyone again…and sell to me they will get better. I can stomach the offense will get better because of the rookies. Hard to stomach that and the pitching just because of a new coach you know? It can’t be run it back with everyone at it will all improve with another year of seasoning. We’ve seen that film for years now.
I agree. They have to get at least two starters. If they don’t, they didn’t do enough.
I was so frustrated watching Royals pitchers fail to punch out hitters. Even if they were lucky enough to work an 0-2 count, you could bet on them bouncing 3 straight sliders in the dirt before either walking the hitter or serving up a cookie. If i could figure this out, it's no wonder hitters stood with bats on their shoulders with impunity, waiting for the walk. I assumed this was the Cal Eldred philosophy as every pitcher that came to the big club eventually succumbed to this madness. How did that man keep his job so long while being so bad at it!?!
I can't answer how he kept his job for so long, but I can tell you it wasn't necessarily a philosophy to bounce pitches. The issue really is that they didn't (and still don't at this point but will) have anyone who was able to teach pitchers how to throw pitches that do elicit those swings and misses. It's kind of the same as the bad numbers after a mound visit. It's not so much that Cal was going out there and giving the guys bad advice as that when there's a mound visit, a pitcher is already in trouble. He just didn't know how to get them out of that trouble. And that's why they got hit more often after a visit. They just didn't have the proper instruction to help them the way other team do.
It sounds as if, with the right coaches etc, you still think there's hope for some of these issues to be fixed. While that's encouraging I have to wonder: can any coach fix a pitcher who never should have been drafted in the first place?
I think there's hope because scouts who know way more than me think there's hope. I'm curious who the pitcher is who you think shouldn't have been drafted in the first place, though.
I'm sure we'll find out over the next two or three years. Bubic? Kowar? Lynch? Heasley? Somebody else? Who knows?
As Soren always says, "they're in the get it right business." We'll find out if they got it right.
My question was intended more as a hypothetical or general one. I wasn't referring to any one pitcher in particular.
Sure *they're* in the get it right business, but I think it becomes far too reactionary and, quite frankly, boring to just wait it out to determine right or wrong. People in the organization have paid already for not getting it right. To say that players who were rated extremely high heading into the draft didn't succeed so therefore it was wrong to draft them is a bit pedantic to me. The organization failed many of them in development, but again, prices have been paid for that and will continue to be paid if they don't develop.
😸 Ah, the impatience of youth! As a certified old dude, I don't think we have any choice but to wait a couple of years to see how these pitchers perform with the new coaches who are presumably on the way. Patience, my friend!
David - I fully understand your point about 2020 being a big blank spot for many of these youngish pitchers. It makes perfect sense, and I'm still not certain I buy it 100%. I buy it maybe more like 60%.
As I understand it, those guys were permitted to throw as many baseballs as they wanted during that year.
If the pitching coaches and development people were all as inept as we suspect, it may have been a good thing for them to have an opportunity to work more or less on their own or with other coaches they trusted. The question is, did they? And to what extent?
First, I only look at that a reason why they may have worn down at the end of the season, not why they haven't succeeded. Second, as I wrote, throwing baseballs and throwing in a competitive game against opponents are two extremely different things.
I have no doubt there's a lot of truth to that. There's also a lot of truth to this: I regularly hear coaches and pitchers talking about how they worked on something during a "bullpen" or "side session." Those are hardly competitive games against opponents.
I still wonder if there were or could have been any benefits for these pitchers in spending a year away from these inept coaches and possibly working with better coaches who they trusted more.
But they didn’t spend a year away. They were with the organization. It was the lockout they couldn’t have contact with anyone.
You can work on all sorts of things. I’m literally ONLY talking about them wearing down late this year as still being impacted from 2020.
Edit: I should say there’s more to it than just wearing down with someone like Bubic who made a jump that probably did him no favors. But for these purposes, I’m wondering if their lack of work for an entire year has impacted their season endurance.
Lack of work for an entire year? As I understand it they were free to work as hard and as often as they wanted to.
I’m not trying to be a jerk, but I don’t know how many ways to say that they didn’t throw a competitive pitch. There is a big difference between pitching with a game on the line and pitching at an alternate site to your teammates.
I understand, and no offense taken! But my observations about the alleged value of "bullpens" and "side sessions" stand. If I want to develop a changeup or improve the location on my slider, I don't need anybody standing in the batter's box in order to work on that. Sure, opponents will put it to the test and give me feedback whether I like it or not. But typically that comes much, much later after much of the hard work is already done.
Makes sense. Watching the postseason pitching, it's sure frustrating watching pitchers mixing pitches between hard & fast to all 4 quadrants while Royals pitchers seemingly don't have the ability to consistently throw breaking balls for strikes.
It shows how far away a lot of these pitchers are. But it's just a question of if you believe in the talent and if it can shine with improved instruction.
Been saying this for years but catcher framing has more to do with pitchers hitting the target than anything. Lot of glove movement by the catcher is an easy way to get a ball called.