Roster Projection 3: The Pitchers

This projection isn't that different from the last one, but at least I have updated stats.

The Royals are (mostly) running a pretty strong A/B test this season to determine where they’ve gone wrong with their pitching. The organization’s hypothesis is that it was in the coaching staff at the big league level. But to determine whether that’s correct or not, they couldn’t go out and make a ton of moves to change the composition of the staff. Instead, they turned over the entire coaching staff that works with the pitchers and they kept a lot of the same players who performed poorly last season. There is an inherent risk in that, but any good marketer can nod in agreement with how they’re coming to their conclusion.

It’s not all identical, of course. They’ve made some trades and a few free agent signings, but the core of this pitching staff is going to be pretty much what last season’s core was. That’s upset some people, and I can’t say it’s hard to disagree with why they’re upset. But it’s out of our hands and now we get to see the great experiment happen in 2023. So far in spring training, the results are kind of hard to argue with, though they are just spring stats. Still, things like strikeout and walk rates tend to stabilize earlier and the early returns, generally, are quite good. There’s also the idea that when a change is made and the results support that change that you at least take notice.

As I did yesterday, I’ll include current spring stats for each player on the roster and also mention some other guys who are part of the conversation and what would need to happen for them to make it.

Starting Pitchers

Zack Greinke - 5.0 IP, 4 H, 1.80 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 21.1% K, 5.3% BB

Brady Singer - 4.2 IP, 4 H, 1.93 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 42.1% K, 5.3% BB

Jordan Lyles - 5.0 IP, 4 H, 3.60 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 20.0% K, 5.0% BB

Daniel Lynch - 7.0 IP, 7 H, 3.86 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 17.2% K, 6.9% BB

Brad Keller - 4.2 IP, 5 H, 5.79 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 28.6% K, 9.5% BB

Statistically, that’s excellent in a sample that is almost comically small. I think what we’re seeing in this group is kind of exactly what the Royals were hoping to see. Greinke is back and doing his normal thing of keeping guys off base because he doesn’t walk them. Singer had a great start on Monday that helped make his numbers look especially shiny and his comments about how his changeup was the best it’s felt were very encouraging.

Lyles, like Greinke, is showing good control and the hope is he’s an innings-eater. Lynch had a nice outing following Singer on Monday, finally picking up some strikeouts. I’m intrigued by his progress. And then the enigma that is Keller is there. I’ve written a couple of times about how good scouts think he looks. The results have been iffy in terms of ERA and WHIP, but the strikeouts look good and I think we all know the value of spring stats. I’m using them here because, well, there are only so many stats and I’m planning to do five roster projections. This is the likely starting five when they stand on the first base line on March 30.

Other Options: Kris Bubic, Jonathan Heasley, Jackson Kowar, Mike Mayers (NRI)

These three are the others who have seen big league time and Mayers. I’m not honestly sure if Mayers is really a candidate to start, but it’s what he’s done in his Cactus League appearances, so I’ll leave him here for now, but he’s walked too many and been kind of rough. For the other three, I think they all start the season in AAA, but the one I’m less sold on that path for is Bubic.

He missed the start of camp with (I believe) shoulder soreness and then finally pitched an inning on Monday. In that inning, he threw his slider that I wrote about last season. He’s maybe a week and a half or two behind everyone, which just makes it a little less likely that he’s even ready. That said, I expect the Royals to be unconventional at times. Maybe they do go with a sixth starter. Being the only additional candidate to not fall on his face so far makes him the likeliest to take a job and that job would likely be taken from Lynch, but I just don’t see it.

Coming into spring, I felt like Heasley was someone who could benefit greatly from Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove. I still think he can. But I haven’t heard anything good about how he’s looked so far, which means he’s likely to start the season in Omaha. I still wonder what his stuff would look like if he simplified his repertoire in the bullpen, which could add some velocity to his fastball also. With Kowar, I’m also not saying he’s a lost cause, but from what I’ve been told, his fastball is as straight as ever and, ultimately, if that doesn’t get fixed, nothing else is going to matter. He also could see his stuff kick up in the bullpen and I’d like to see him work with this new development system for a bit, but he’s also a long way off from starting in the big leagues.

Theoretically, Angel Zerpa should have been in the mix, but without throwing a pitch yet this spring, he’s out for now, but he can be part of the conversation as the year progresses. So can Jonathan Bowlan, Alec Marsh, Drew Parrish and any handful of others.

Bullpen

Scott Barlow - 4.0 IP, 5 H, 2.25 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 17.6% K, 0.0% BB

Dylan Coleman - 3.0 IP, 4 H, 3.00 ERA, 2.333 WHIP, 33.3% K, 16.7% BB

Aroldis Chapman - 2.0 IP, 4 H, 9.00 ERA, 2.500 WHIP, 45.5% K, 9.1% BB

Josh Staumont - 4.0 IP, 1 H, 2.25 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, 44.4% K, 11.1% BB

Amir Garrett - 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0.00 ERA, 0.500 WHIP, 14.3% K, 14.3% BB

Carlos Hernandez - 4.0 IP, 3 H, 0.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 29.4% K, 5.9% BB

Josh Taylor - 3.0 IP, 2 H, 3.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 18.2% K, 9.1% BB

Ryan Yarbrough - 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0.00 ERA, 0.000 WHIP, 33.3% K, 0.0% BB

I maintain that this can be an excellent bullpen. The key is Staumont, though. I was pretty worried about him with the pitch clock, but it sounds like that hasn’t been a problem at all for him. He’s going to struggle with control, but if he’s healthy it’s hard not to think about what he did in 2020/2021 when he threw 91.1 innings with a 2.76 ERA with a 29 percent strikeout rate and not think what that could do for a bullpen featuring a very good closer in Barlow and a developing closer in Coleman. If Chapman really has found the zone again, that’s a heck of a foursome at the back end.

And then you start to piece together the rest. Garrett was murder on lefties last year and could be that again. Taylor was very good when he was last seen on a big league mound in 2021. Yarbrough can provide some length when needed and can be counted on to throw strikes. And Hernandez, who I haven’t had on previous projections, has the stuff to be great in the bullpen. From what I’ve heard, he’s looked outstanding in his outings and while the sample is, of course, small, to only have that strikeout to walk ratio is incredibly encouraging. I think the front end of this particular bullpen could be done in by not throwing enough strikes, but I also think the upside with this group is pretty incredible.

I’ll get to the depth of the pitchers who are on the outside looking in as of this moment, but it’s very encouraging to see the number of big league quality arms who aren’t going to make this roster, which means that if there are hiccups, they have the depth to dip into and make the fix.

Other Options: Bubic, Taylor Clarke, Jose Cuas, Kowar, Richard Lovelady, Mayers (NRI), Collin Snider, Ryan Weiss (NRI), Nick Wittgren (NRI)

This is a deep group of backup plans. Clarke has been on every roster projection, but we’ve reached three weeks to Opening Day and he hasn’t pitched yet. I don’t think he’ll be in extended spring training long and maybe he doesn’t need more than three weeks, but I just have a hunch he won’t be ready for Opening Day. If I had to guess, I’d say he’ll take the spot of Hernandez or Taylor when the time comes, but we’ll see. I think Cuas has shown a lot this spring and can very easily be the first guy other than Clarke up if and when a need arises. Of course, maybe that’s Lovelady who was very good in 2021 before Tommy John and has been solid this spring as well. If I’m being honest, I could see any of these three making the roster and replacing any or all of Hernandez, Taylor and maybe a trade to open up a 40-man spot for an NRI on the position player side.

As for the rest, the guys who are vying for starting spots are certainly bullpen candidates as well. But interestingly enough, Snider is someone who I’ve been told looks really good in bullpens. I don’t think that’s surprising because he does have good stuff, but we saw what that stuff can do once the league sees it. He’s made some adjustments, but even so, I’d be skeptical and still wonder if he’s on the chopping block when space is needed. Weiss has looked outstanding while Wittgren has been pretty pedestrian, which is the opposite of what I expected at the outset of spring, but both will be nice depth pieces if they don’t have opt outs. The point here is that the Royals can go 11-14 deep in the bullpen, which is ideal for how they want to manage the roster.

This group of 13 pitchers has combined to throw 49.1 innings this spring with 43 hits allowed and has a 27.8 percent strikeout rate with a 7.7 percent walk rate and has posted a 2.92 ERA in the Cactus League. It’s important to keep in mind that 49.1 innings isn’t even six full games, but when the sample is small, you’d still rather it be good. The rotation I’ve projected has a 25.2 percent strikeout rate and 6.5 percent walk rate and the bullpen is at a 30.4 percent strikeout and 8.8 percent walk rate. Even if everything drops off by like 20 percent, that’ll be a MASSIVE improvement. I think it might be August before anyone would believe it’s real if they keep it up, but they’re certainly off to a good start.