I’ll take any improvement we can get. But I would say that it’s a little misleading yet as far as the walk numbers. I would expect the starting rotation top 3 of Greinke, Singer, and Lyle to have good walk numbers. It’s encouraging Lynch is down….Keller is still fairly high at almost 10%. I think the bullpen will be better this year for sure. I’m predicting 75% of the bullpen to start the season is gone by the last pitch of the season for the team. Just natural injuries, production, but mostly trades! IDK, i thought 75% felt high…but maybe that’s normal for a bullpen anymore.
Initially I thought I’d way disagree with 75%, but I could see anyone moved really. My guess is Coleman, Staumont and Hernandez are still standing at the end, but any could be hurt and, especially the latter two, ineffective.
You’re right that the walk numbers are potentially misleading, but also you named 60% of the rotation as not being surprising so I think that’s generally okay.
Is it typical for a bullpen to issue a higher percentage of walks than the starting rotation? The walks were what I found most frustrating about last year's relievers. Do we know what the walk rate was for the bullpen last year?
Yeah, it's pretty typical because generally relievers are there to do one thing and that's strike a hitter out, so there are a lot of guys on a lot of teams with good stuff but no clue where it's headed. Here are league starter walk rates vs. reliever walk rates for the last few years:
22: 7.5%/9.1%
21: 7.8%/9.8%
20: 8.3%/10.2%
19: 7.7%/9.6%
18: 7.9%/9.2%
17: 8.1%/9.2%
16: 7.7%/9.0%
The Royals in that same time:
22: 8.3%/11.0%
21: 9.0%/10.4%
20: 8.8%/10.2%
19: 8.3%/10.6%
18: 7.7%/10.4%
17: 7.3%/10.0%
16: 8.4%/8.3%
So '16 was the outlier, but that was also a bullpen that still featured Herrera and Davis.
This actually puts some context in the Royals relievers walk numbers so far. Way too much of a small sample size but they look like they are in line with the league averages as well. So that’s good. Maybe they don’t have one too many high walk guys.
Relievers are the kings of the small sample. Think about if, say, Brady Singer starts and gives up a run on two hits with a walk in the first inning. He faces six hitters, has a 9.00 ERA and a 16.7% walk rate for the inning. But then he pitches five more innings, gives up another run and walks one more batter while he faces 21 more hitters. He ends the day with a 3.00 ERA and a 7.4% walk rate. If he was a reliever, that one inning is it for him probably, but he had five more innings to bring the numbers down. On top of that, you notice it more when it's a reliever because it's often like the eighth inning of a 5-3 game or something. I'm not saying the Royals don't walk too many hitters because that's obviously been a massive issue, but it puts it into perspective a little.
Just think how much better this entire rotation would be if they had signed that one decent starter that most fans were hollering for - we might be talking about a top 5 AL pitching staff. Oh well, I’ll take the improvements we’re seeing.
First, I don't think one signed starter makes this a top five pitching staff. I think if they pitch well it's because they were right that the coaching staff was the problem before and it's fixed well. Second, I'm not sure who they should have signed because I've heard from a lot of people that the deals guys like Stripling or Manaea (who also is coming off a rough year) or whoever in that 2/25 range would have been more like 3/42 for the Royals because they didn't want to come to KC. I was annoyed with a second year for Lyles. A third year for a four/five starter? I'd have absolutely despised that. They put themselves in the position they're in, but that's the reality they had to live with and work through this winter.
Will just have to disagree (again lol - we argued earlier on Twitter) adding a no. 2 arm would’ve pushed Zack to the 3 spot and then likely Lynch or Keller to the 5 spot and the other out. If the BP is as stout as you think they’ll be and Singer doesn’t take a step back, that’s a decent roster with decent depth. Right now, the starter depth is weak. One more top of the rotation arm makes all the difference I think. Lynch improving gets us only half way to a dominant 1-3. Grienke is great for this roster but 60% of our starters are stopgaps only. But I’ll say it again, the improvements we’re seeing already are encouraging. Just wish we had a Ewing owner and not a Glass.
Adding a #2 arm would be great, but I'll ask again who it is you're adding in this scenario. I would hate Walker or Taillon for an extra year and $20 million-ish more than they signed for. I'm not sure Chris Bassitt, likely for four years and $88 million makes sense. I liked Eflin for 2/25 and he got 3/40 from a good team. The point is there was basically no way they were getting the starter you're asking for and giving them any kind of contract that anyone reasonable would have thought was decent.
Eovaldi would’ve been my first choice. Manaea deal might have worked in our ballpark. I just would have liked them to spend more now and attempt to speed up the process + give us a better chance to see BWJ and Vinnie sign an extension. Hard to see BWJ or Singer doing that currently. I hope I’m wrong.
I just can’t say I agree on Eovaldi. Giving up a pick to give a 33-year old who had topped 111 innings once since 2016 a three year deal for $50+ million would rightfully get panned. I like the pitcher. Not for those terms. I think Manaea could have maybe bounced back but I also wouldn’t give him three years and that’s what it would have taken. I can promise you, though, that signing either of those guys would have had zero impact on anyone signing an extension. But I appreciate you giving some names because now there really is something to agree to disagree on, which is one of the best parts of talking baseball!
I’d like to see Lovelady over Taylor in the pen but guess that won’t happen since we traded for him. I’d just hate to see them lose Lovelady. Isn’t he out of options?
He is, but I think the belief is he'll be granted a fourth. If he doesn't get that, the story changes. He may end up pitching his way onto the roster either way.
Okay, David. You have done it. I am officially pumped about this year's team....not that I wouldn't be in a couple of weeks, but your reporting...thank you, man.
It doesn't matter how well we know that spring training results are fool's good. When a team is 10-2 and doing everything it set out to do at the start of spring, it's easy to get excited. Plus, baseball is back!
Great stuff, David...must-read for any Royals fan that likes a little deeper dive. I guess I'll chalk it up to a spring training Kool-aid drinking season, but the early results and optimism around the staff changes have me wondering if the Royals might have a 2023 similar to what the Orioles did last year? The O's improved by 31 wins (not saying KC is going to win 90+ games) but there is at least a scenario developing in my mind where the combination of 1) Young position player progression, 2) Competent middle of the league pitching, and 3) Better coaching / clubhouse vibe has the Royals flirting with .500 as the O's did last year, which (unlike the Orioles in the AL East), could have us in the mix in the Central. It's March, so a fella can dream a little, but it does feel like more of an actual possibility as the days go by.
Yeah, that jump seems pretty huge considering the cast and crew are going to be largely the same while Baltimore debuted some top prospect, but the Royals debuted their fair share of top prospects last season too. I think it's instructive to look at the simple runs scored vs. runs allowed math. I think I did this in a comment last week, but basically 10 runs is a win. It's not perfect, but for rough math, it works.
The league average staff allowed 694 runs. The Royals allowed 810. So if they can get to a league average staff, that should give them roughly 11-12 more win. Their offense scored 640 runs, so if they can get to league average that's 5-6 more wins. Improve by 16 games and, no surprise, they win 81. Is it possible? Absolutely. I don't think I'll be predicting it, but when you do the math, it doesn't seem quite as hard as it might seem from having watched the 2022 team. If they're the 10th best offense (725 runs) and the 12th best pitching staff (676 runs), that's roughly a 22-win improvement and puts them at 87 wins. You want to see that 31-game jump, well that puts them somewhere in the range of a top-five pitching staff in baseball and a top-seven offense. Obviously it's not that simple, but that's what the math says.
If the team gets off to a hot start then I have a strong hunch that they'll be flirting with 500 ball for a good chunk of the season. If two more starting pitchers make significant progress and Singer gets a bit better and the offense improves as well...then the Royals could be this years version of the 2022 Baltimore Orioles.
It's a lot to all happen, but if they were right and the coaching staff changes make a difference, there is plenty of talent on the roster. We'll find out soon enough.
While I always enjoy the articles, the comments are packed with good questions and insight as well!
Definitely interested to see what Keller does tonight, but guessing the winning streak my come to an end soon with 4 of the best bats at WBC.
I hate to ask about this guy, but have you heard any chatter on Chapman's pitching? I am hoping he has turned it around both on and off the field, and the dental emergency was a true accident versus foreshadowing things to come, but I wouldn't bet on it. (I am betting the over on Royals wins tho and would consider betting on a winning season)
Yeah, they may or may not have a tougher time winning without their best, but every team is missing some guys to the WBC, so it evens out. Also, especially this early in the spring, the games are often won by guys who aren't sniffing an Opening Day roster anyway.
As for Chapman, I've heard the velocity is great, the movement is great and the command is better. They've said he simplified things a little, which matches up with what I was told from the start. The Royals thought they identified a delivery flaw that they felt like they could fix quickly and it would help him find the zone more. He's pitched twice. Once he was great, once not so much, so we'll see, but that's what I've heard.
wow, didn't expect that (after Wednesdays game with Keller). Am I getting too excited about Keller this early? and the offense? Who cares if I am - Yay for spring!
I’ll take any improvement we can get. But I would say that it’s a little misleading yet as far as the walk numbers. I would expect the starting rotation top 3 of Greinke, Singer, and Lyle to have good walk numbers. It’s encouraging Lynch is down….Keller is still fairly high at almost 10%. I think the bullpen will be better this year for sure. I’m predicting 75% of the bullpen to start the season is gone by the last pitch of the season for the team. Just natural injuries, production, but mostly trades! IDK, i thought 75% felt high…but maybe that’s normal for a bullpen anymore.
Initially I thought I’d way disagree with 75%, but I could see anyone moved really. My guess is Coleman, Staumont and Hernandez are still standing at the end, but any could be hurt and, especially the latter two, ineffective.
You’re right that the walk numbers are potentially misleading, but also you named 60% of the rotation as not being surprising so I think that’s generally okay.
Is it typical for a bullpen to issue a higher percentage of walks than the starting rotation? The walks were what I found most frustrating about last year's relievers. Do we know what the walk rate was for the bullpen last year?
Yeah, it's pretty typical because generally relievers are there to do one thing and that's strike a hitter out, so there are a lot of guys on a lot of teams with good stuff but no clue where it's headed. Here are league starter walk rates vs. reliever walk rates for the last few years:
22: 7.5%/9.1%
21: 7.8%/9.8%
20: 8.3%/10.2%
19: 7.7%/9.6%
18: 7.9%/9.2%
17: 8.1%/9.2%
16: 7.7%/9.0%
The Royals in that same time:
22: 8.3%/11.0%
21: 9.0%/10.4%
20: 8.8%/10.2%
19: 8.3%/10.6%
18: 7.7%/10.4%
17: 7.3%/10.0%
16: 8.4%/8.3%
So '16 was the outlier, but that was also a bullpen that still featured Herrera and Davis.
This actually puts some context in the Royals relievers walk numbers so far. Way too much of a small sample size but they look like they are in line with the league averages as well. So that’s good. Maybe they don’t have one too many high walk guys.
Relievers are the kings of the small sample. Think about if, say, Brady Singer starts and gives up a run on two hits with a walk in the first inning. He faces six hitters, has a 9.00 ERA and a 16.7% walk rate for the inning. But then he pitches five more innings, gives up another run and walks one more batter while he faces 21 more hitters. He ends the day with a 3.00 ERA and a 7.4% walk rate. If he was a reliever, that one inning is it for him probably, but he had five more innings to bring the numbers down. On top of that, you notice it more when it's a reliever because it's often like the eighth inning of a 5-3 game or something. I'm not saying the Royals don't walk too many hitters because that's obviously been a massive issue, but it puts it into perspective a little.
Just think how much better this entire rotation would be if they had signed that one decent starter that most fans were hollering for - we might be talking about a top 5 AL pitching staff. Oh well, I’ll take the improvements we’re seeing.
First, I don't think one signed starter makes this a top five pitching staff. I think if they pitch well it's because they were right that the coaching staff was the problem before and it's fixed well. Second, I'm not sure who they should have signed because I've heard from a lot of people that the deals guys like Stripling or Manaea (who also is coming off a rough year) or whoever in that 2/25 range would have been more like 3/42 for the Royals because they didn't want to come to KC. I was annoyed with a second year for Lyles. A third year for a four/five starter? I'd have absolutely despised that. They put themselves in the position they're in, but that's the reality they had to live with and work through this winter.
Will just have to disagree (again lol - we argued earlier on Twitter) adding a no. 2 arm would’ve pushed Zack to the 3 spot and then likely Lynch or Keller to the 5 spot and the other out. If the BP is as stout as you think they’ll be and Singer doesn’t take a step back, that’s a decent roster with decent depth. Right now, the starter depth is weak. One more top of the rotation arm makes all the difference I think. Lynch improving gets us only half way to a dominant 1-3. Grienke is great for this roster but 60% of our starters are stopgaps only. But I’ll say it again, the improvements we’re seeing already are encouraging. Just wish we had a Ewing owner and not a Glass.
Adding a #2 arm would be great, but I'll ask again who it is you're adding in this scenario. I would hate Walker or Taillon for an extra year and $20 million-ish more than they signed for. I'm not sure Chris Bassitt, likely for four years and $88 million makes sense. I liked Eflin for 2/25 and he got 3/40 from a good team. The point is there was basically no way they were getting the starter you're asking for and giving them any kind of contract that anyone reasonable would have thought was decent.
Eovaldi would’ve been my first choice. Manaea deal might have worked in our ballpark. I just would have liked them to spend more now and attempt to speed up the process + give us a better chance to see BWJ and Vinnie sign an extension. Hard to see BWJ or Singer doing that currently. I hope I’m wrong.
And fire Lonnie Goldberg. Lol.
I just can’t say I agree on Eovaldi. Giving up a pick to give a 33-year old who had topped 111 innings once since 2016 a three year deal for $50+ million would rightfully get panned. I like the pitcher. Not for those terms. I think Manaea could have maybe bounced back but I also wouldn’t give him three years and that’s what it would have taken. I can promise you, though, that signing either of those guys would have had zero impact on anyone signing an extension. But I appreciate you giving some names because now there really is something to agree to disagree on, which is one of the best parts of talking baseball!
I’d like to see Lovelady over Taylor in the pen but guess that won’t happen since we traded for him. I’d just hate to see them lose Lovelady. Isn’t he out of options?
He is, but I think the belief is he'll be granted a fourth. If he doesn't get that, the story changes. He may end up pitching his way onto the roster either way.
Okay, David. You have done it. I am officially pumped about this year's team....not that I wouldn't be in a couple of weeks, but your reporting...thank you, man.
It doesn't matter how well we know that spring training results are fool's good. When a team is 10-2 and doing everything it set out to do at the start of spring, it's easy to get excited. Plus, baseball is back!
Oh yeah, baby! Plus, that's part of Spring Training and it works on me every year...
Great stuff, David...must-read for any Royals fan that likes a little deeper dive. I guess I'll chalk it up to a spring training Kool-aid drinking season, but the early results and optimism around the staff changes have me wondering if the Royals might have a 2023 similar to what the Orioles did last year? The O's improved by 31 wins (not saying KC is going to win 90+ games) but there is at least a scenario developing in my mind where the combination of 1) Young position player progression, 2) Competent middle of the league pitching, and 3) Better coaching / clubhouse vibe has the Royals flirting with .500 as the O's did last year, which (unlike the Orioles in the AL East), could have us in the mix in the Central. It's March, so a fella can dream a little, but it does feel like more of an actual possibility as the days go by.
Yeah, that jump seems pretty huge considering the cast and crew are going to be largely the same while Baltimore debuted some top prospect, but the Royals debuted their fair share of top prospects last season too. I think it's instructive to look at the simple runs scored vs. runs allowed math. I think I did this in a comment last week, but basically 10 runs is a win. It's not perfect, but for rough math, it works.
The league average staff allowed 694 runs. The Royals allowed 810. So if they can get to a league average staff, that should give them roughly 11-12 more win. Their offense scored 640 runs, so if they can get to league average that's 5-6 more wins. Improve by 16 games and, no surprise, they win 81. Is it possible? Absolutely. I don't think I'll be predicting it, but when you do the math, it doesn't seem quite as hard as it might seem from having watched the 2022 team. If they're the 10th best offense (725 runs) and the 12th best pitching staff (676 runs), that's roughly a 22-win improvement and puts them at 87 wins. You want to see that 31-game jump, well that puts them somewhere in the range of a top-five pitching staff in baseball and a top-seven offense. Obviously it's not that simple, but that's what the math says.
If the team gets off to a hot start then I have a strong hunch that they'll be flirting with 500 ball for a good chunk of the season. If two more starting pitchers make significant progress and Singer gets a bit better and the offense improves as well...then the Royals could be this years version of the 2022 Baltimore Orioles.
It's a lot to all happen, but if they were right and the coaching staff changes make a difference, there is plenty of talent on the roster. We'll find out soon enough.
Do you know why Zerpa has been so limited?
He's been delayed because of a slight injury, which I think they believe isn't a big deal, but it's held him back.
While I always enjoy the articles, the comments are packed with good questions and insight as well!
Definitely interested to see what Keller does tonight, but guessing the winning streak my come to an end soon with 4 of the best bats at WBC.
I hate to ask about this guy, but have you heard any chatter on Chapman's pitching? I am hoping he has turned it around both on and off the field, and the dental emergency was a true accident versus foreshadowing things to come, but I wouldn't bet on it. (I am betting the over on Royals wins tho and would consider betting on a winning season)
Yeah, they may or may not have a tougher time winning without their best, but every team is missing some guys to the WBC, so it evens out. Also, especially this early in the spring, the games are often won by guys who aren't sniffing an Opening Day roster anyway.
As for Chapman, I've heard the velocity is great, the movement is great and the command is better. They've said he simplified things a little, which matches up with what I was told from the start. The Royals thought they identified a delivery flaw that they felt like they could fix quickly and it would help him find the zone more. He's pitched twice. Once he was great, once not so much, so we'll see, but that's what I've heard.
wow, didn't expect that (after Wednesdays game with Keller). Am I getting too excited about Keller this early? and the offense? Who cares if I am - Yay for spring!