I go back and forth. I'd say it never dips below a 5 and creeps up every day, but some moments it's like a 14 on a 1-10 scale. He just looks awful at the plate. I think I've said this before, but I do think he's likely a very streaky hitter and we might look up at the end of a week where he hit .571 with four home runs and the numbers end up where they should be. There's another argument in there if that's what you want, but I'm fine giving him more at bats, but with Taylor, Blanco and Isbel coming back, it'll be very interesting to see what his playing time looks like with all of them on the roster.
David, I was struck by your last paragraph. If this team can manage anything "interesting" at all it would be a major upgrade to our fan experience. So I'm really hoping you're right on that one!
There are some interesting standings out there, and there are some teams that were considered prohibitive favorites in preseason that are in third place right now (looking at you, Dodgers and Astros). Aroldis Chapman has incredible "stuff," but he's working on his third-straight season of over 6 BB/9. Right now I need an oxygen mask when I see him come in.
Knowing about the 16 K/9 electric "stuff," will some contending GM overlook the occasional complete loss of the strike zone and make a good deal for him? I hope so, and I hope it's soon, because outings like last night leave me wondering (and yes, I know he got out of it).
I tweeted this the other day. Teams don't care about the results. I mean they do, so they can't get crazy, but as long as Chapman is throwing 100+ with the slider looking good, someone will trade for him. From what I've heard, there are at least eight teams seriously interested and a few more who have been involved in some way. Outside of a complete collapse, which has been close the last couple of games, the only thing that will derail his value is if the velocity dips badly.
So I do wonder a little bit if they will get the return everyone is expecting. You may know more about this David, but are teams at all concerned about the baggage with him? He basically quit on the Yankees last year. My assumption is most GM’s would overlook that when you are in a win now mode. And he’s a pure rental player. I’m kinda hoping they package him with Barlow and really get something of substance back.
I haven't heard anyone say there's a concern about the baggage, which is a little surprising. And I've even asked a bit and nobody seems to really think much of it. I honestly don't know if it's super smart to package them together or really silly, though. I can see both sides. Two back-end relievers in one deal! Or maybe you get a team willing to give up one top-10 prospect for Chapman, but scoffs at giving up two while you can get a top-10 for Barlow from somewhere else. I'm going to see if I can get any answers on that soon.
It’s not a story for the comments. But I would be interest in the trade deadline article on what you see as a win. What you see as a wash, let it play out. And what you see as a we have some issues here scenarios. I know you can’t get into specific players. But I’m assuming if they hold on to Barlow for example…it’s a what are we doing situation. If we get a couple top 100 guys, it’s a win. I’m not sure what the scenario would be that it’s a wash. I suppose just higher volume of upside guys but not top 100 prospects.
A lot of talk on 810 about the Royals tanking. Is that your impression? I just don’t buy that was the plan going into the year and I think a lot of that talk is just because everyone’s opinion of the team was way off and trying to justify how we could all be so wrong. Lol.
Now, they may be “tanking” now I suppose. I just have a hard time buying that even in an evaluation year that was the plan going in with a new stadium in the works and some of the guys they kept on the roster going into it.
I think tanking has taken on kind of a weird connotation. Teams have always tanked. They just called it rebuilding up until recently. But I also don't think they're traditionally "tanking" as much as I do think they knew they wouldn't be good. I doubt they thought they'd be *this* bad, but I don't think anyone thought that.
The A's, for example, are tanking in the way it's discussed now. Over the last few years, they've traded pretty much any good player and came into the year with the 22nd ranked farm system on MLB Pipeline. Their current roster features three (I think) players who were ranked as a top-100 prospect on any list since 2020. Now look at the Royals. They were ranked 28th on MLB Pipeline, but their roster features Witt, Melendez, Pratto, Pasquantino before the injury, Waters, Lynch, Singer and Kowar. All of those guys were on top-100 lists since 2020. It's sort of a difference without a distinction to me.
The difference is that the A's aren't playing with a group of guys they have much hope will be around if and when they win again. The Royals hope the guys they're playing with will be, but are finding that out. Ultimately, they both stink.
Agree with Andy, but it looks like the problem runs deeper than that. Aren’t you concerned about the strikeout rates for several players. Waters 36%, Pratto 34%, Melendez 31%. Team average is around 26%. WAR ratings are also substandard: Waters -.5, Pratto .2, Melendez -1.2 (my understanding is 2.0 for a full year is about an average MLBer). With hitting like this and a team ERA of 5.16, do you think this is the group that can bring us back to respectability.
I'm concerned about Melendez and I'd like to see Pratto be more aggressive with two strikes than he has been. 37% of his strikeouts have been looking. Some of that is part of his game, but he needs to cut that down significantly. And I think there's an opportunity for improvement and he's shown an ability to make adjustments, so I'm a lot less worried about that, though it's something to live with for now.
League average strikeout rate is 22.7%. Garcia, Witt, Salvy, Lopez, Olivares and Taylor are all either right around that or below it. Pasquantino was before the injury and he'll be back next year. I think you can live with a couple of high strikeout guys if the rest are fine and the rest are basically fine or better. The current 13 position players actually have a 24.1% strikeout rate as a team, which is much better. I mean, yes, I'd like to see fewer strikeouts, but I also don't necessarily think that's what stopping them from success outside of Pratto being too passive and he's had success anyway.
I don't think this group as a whole can be the solution. I'm a lot more bullish on Witt than I had been. I think Garcia is an answer. I do think Pratto can be. I know Pasquantino is, though we'll need to see him actually come back from his injury. The last few months will be about whether or not Massey and Taylor and Waters and Isbel can be a part of that and what they need to pick up to supplement that group.
Maybe on BWJ. He needs to be a superstar to pull us out of the abyss, but I don’t think he is that kind of talent. He has trouble catching up to the high fastball. Vinnie can hit, but, try as he may, is a defensive liability. I like Garcia; he looks like a solid player. Disagree on Pratto - strikes out too much, especially on called third strikes. Looks like a complainer to me. Melendez needed two more years in the minors. Unfortunately, they are also wasting his service time. I will be very surprised if more than one of the last four you mentioned becomes a 2.0 WAR player.
BWJ, Vinnie and Garcia should be solid players for several years, but from where does the rest of the team come. Other than BWJ, even with high selections, the first round draft choices have done nothing to this point - Pratto, Singer, Kowar, Lynch, Lacy, Mozzicato, Cross. IMO, until the scouting and player development dramatically improve, we will have bad teams.
What’s your Waters concern level right now? His PAs last night were pretty brutal. Looked completely lost.
I go back and forth. I'd say it never dips below a 5 and creeps up every day, but some moments it's like a 14 on a 1-10 scale. He just looks awful at the plate. I think I've said this before, but I do think he's likely a very streaky hitter and we might look up at the end of a week where he hit .571 with four home runs and the numbers end up where they should be. There's another argument in there if that's what you want, but I'm fine giving him more at bats, but with Taylor, Blanco and Isbel coming back, it'll be very interesting to see what his playing time looks like with all of them on the roster.
David, I was struck by your last paragraph. If this team can manage anything "interesting" at all it would be a major upgrade to our fan experience. So I'm really hoping you're right on that one!
There are some interesting standings out there, and there are some teams that were considered prohibitive favorites in preseason that are in third place right now (looking at you, Dodgers and Astros). Aroldis Chapman has incredible "stuff," but he's working on his third-straight season of over 6 BB/9. Right now I need an oxygen mask when I see him come in.
Knowing about the 16 K/9 electric "stuff," will some contending GM overlook the occasional complete loss of the strike zone and make a good deal for him? I hope so, and I hope it's soon, because outings like last night leave me wondering (and yes, I know he got out of it).
I tweeted this the other day. Teams don't care about the results. I mean they do, so they can't get crazy, but as long as Chapman is throwing 100+ with the slider looking good, someone will trade for him. From what I've heard, there are at least eight teams seriously interested and a few more who have been involved in some way. Outside of a complete collapse, which has been close the last couple of games, the only thing that will derail his value is if the velocity dips badly.
So I do wonder a little bit if they will get the return everyone is expecting. You may know more about this David, but are teams at all concerned about the baggage with him? He basically quit on the Yankees last year. My assumption is most GM’s would overlook that when you are in a win now mode. And he’s a pure rental player. I’m kinda hoping they package him with Barlow and really get something of substance back.
I haven't heard anyone say there's a concern about the baggage, which is a little surprising. And I've even asked a bit and nobody seems to really think much of it. I honestly don't know if it's super smart to package them together or really silly, though. I can see both sides. Two back-end relievers in one deal! Or maybe you get a team willing to give up one top-10 prospect for Chapman, but scoffs at giving up two while you can get a top-10 for Barlow from somewhere else. I'm going to see if I can get any answers on that soon.
It’s not a story for the comments. But I would be interest in the trade deadline article on what you see as a win. What you see as a wash, let it play out. And what you see as a we have some issues here scenarios. I know you can’t get into specific players. But I’m assuming if they hold on to Barlow for example…it’s a what are we doing situation. If we get a couple top 100 guys, it’s a win. I’m not sure what the scenario would be that it’s a wash. I suppose just higher volume of upside guys but not top 100 prospects.
A lot of talk on 810 about the Royals tanking. Is that your impression? I just don’t buy that was the plan going into the year and I think a lot of that talk is just because everyone’s opinion of the team was way off and trying to justify how we could all be so wrong. Lol.
Now, they may be “tanking” now I suppose. I just have a hard time buying that even in an evaluation year that was the plan going in with a new stadium in the works and some of the guys they kept on the roster going into it.
I think tanking has taken on kind of a weird connotation. Teams have always tanked. They just called it rebuilding up until recently. But I also don't think they're traditionally "tanking" as much as I do think they knew they wouldn't be good. I doubt they thought they'd be *this* bad, but I don't think anyone thought that.
The A's, for example, are tanking in the way it's discussed now. Over the last few years, they've traded pretty much any good player and came into the year with the 22nd ranked farm system on MLB Pipeline. Their current roster features three (I think) players who were ranked as a top-100 prospect on any list since 2020. Now look at the Royals. They were ranked 28th on MLB Pipeline, but their roster features Witt, Melendez, Pratto, Pasquantino before the injury, Waters, Lynch, Singer and Kowar. All of those guys were on top-100 lists since 2020. It's sort of a difference without a distinction to me.
The difference is that the A's aren't playing with a group of guys they have much hope will be around if and when they win again. The Royals hope the guys they're playing with will be, but are finding that out. Ultimately, they both stink.
Agree with Andy, but it looks like the problem runs deeper than that. Aren’t you concerned about the strikeout rates for several players. Waters 36%, Pratto 34%, Melendez 31%. Team average is around 26%. WAR ratings are also substandard: Waters -.5, Pratto .2, Melendez -1.2 (my understanding is 2.0 for a full year is about an average MLBer). With hitting like this and a team ERA of 5.16, do you think this is the group that can bring us back to respectability.
I'm concerned about Melendez and I'd like to see Pratto be more aggressive with two strikes than he has been. 37% of his strikeouts have been looking. Some of that is part of his game, but he needs to cut that down significantly. And I think there's an opportunity for improvement and he's shown an ability to make adjustments, so I'm a lot less worried about that, though it's something to live with for now.
League average strikeout rate is 22.7%. Garcia, Witt, Salvy, Lopez, Olivares and Taylor are all either right around that or below it. Pasquantino was before the injury and he'll be back next year. I think you can live with a couple of high strikeout guys if the rest are fine and the rest are basically fine or better. The current 13 position players actually have a 24.1% strikeout rate as a team, which is much better. I mean, yes, I'd like to see fewer strikeouts, but I also don't necessarily think that's what stopping them from success outside of Pratto being too passive and he's had success anyway.
I don't think this group as a whole can be the solution. I'm a lot more bullish on Witt than I had been. I think Garcia is an answer. I do think Pratto can be. I know Pasquantino is, though we'll need to see him actually come back from his injury. The last few months will be about whether or not Massey and Taylor and Waters and Isbel can be a part of that and what they need to pick up to supplement that group.
Thank you for the prompt response.
Maybe on BWJ. He needs to be a superstar to pull us out of the abyss, but I don’t think he is that kind of talent. He has trouble catching up to the high fastball. Vinnie can hit, but, try as he may, is a defensive liability. I like Garcia; he looks like a solid player. Disagree on Pratto - strikes out too much, especially on called third strikes. Looks like a complainer to me. Melendez needed two more years in the minors. Unfortunately, they are also wasting his service time. I will be very surprised if more than one of the last four you mentioned becomes a 2.0 WAR player.
BWJ, Vinnie and Garcia should be solid players for several years, but from where does the rest of the team come. Other than BWJ, even with high selections, the first round draft choices have done nothing to this point - Pratto, Singer, Kowar, Lynch, Lacy, Mozzicato, Cross. IMO, until the scouting and player development dramatically improve, we will have bad teams.