David, I'll admit it, I wrote this before I read your column. But I promise I'll get to it right now, I really will! FWIW, agree or disagree, these were my observations immediately after the end of the game on Sunday….
Buckle up, everybody. I'm afraid that this past weekend is pretty indicative of what's going to happen nearly every time the Royals come up against a real live top-flight major league baseball team. They may have some success against the weakest teams on their schedule and may even eventually hold their own with the mediocre-to-average teams they face, but they're nowhere near ready to deal with teams like the Braves. Perhaps nothing illuminates the gulf between the two teams so well as the 24-10 run differential over the three-game series.
It's tempting to think (hope) that this series might have been some sort of wake-up call for them but the problem is that they're not equipped to do much about it even if it was. Maybe they will be in 2025 or '26. (I wouldn't bet against it, but who knows?)
However that may be, they're definitely not there yet. Not by a country mile.
I think you wrote similarly to my thoughts. They aren't as good as the Braves. It's not surprising in any way and while I don't think there *can* be a wakeup call because they just aren't there, it can be a measuring stick to show just how far away they are. Gaps can be closed pretty quickly when the pieces are in place and that's the question that is going to be answered this season. Are the pieces in place to fill in the gaps?
If you feel good about Witt, Melendez, Pasquantino and Salvy as an offensive core, I'd say the pieces are there with some moves that they'll have to make. The severity of Bubic's injury and how much you believe in the first two starts will impact your belief of the rotation. If you think Singer and Bubic are building block pieces, that's a start. If you don't, that's going to be trouble. But that's what we'll find out for certain this year.
I personally believe in the methodology of what they're doing, so at least I know that if they don't succeed, it won't be because they went about things in an archaic way as they had been for too long. It doesn't make it any better, but I think they have the right plans in place to give an honest go of it. The schedule gets MUCH easier in May, but they also go to Milwaukee and San Diego, so there'll be another test then. We'll see. Early on, they're doing sort of what I thought they'd do.
I rather doubt that Salvy will be much of a contributor - or even available - if and when they become a contender again. I advocated strongly for trading him immediately after his 48HR season which was satisfying for the fans but contributed nothing to building a winning team. I took a lot of online heat for that but continue to believe that events will prove me right. No one will ever know who the prospects are that aren't in the organization because of their refusal to trade him. Maybe DM knows but he'll never admit to it.
I'll continue to say that I don't think Salvy has nearly the trade value that fans generally think. I don't think they'd have gotten back anywhere near enough to trade him. Catchers on the wrong side of 30 making $20+ million with rough defensive metrics aren't going to bring back the haul people were expecting.
Those are all valid points but there's also something we've seen in MLB many times before. All the Royals needed was one overexcited GM to convince himself that "analytics be damned, we're only a catcher away from the promised land!" and a substantial haul could certainly have been available. I've seen that happen so many times in baseball that I have to think there was a decent chance of it happening again.
Oh I agree that his trade value is very little now. They failed to strike while the iron was hot right after that 48HR season. I'd be surprised if they could get much of anything for him these days.
Man, felt better about the Royals after last weekend…..back to feeling like “how is this going to work” again after this weekend. A lot depends on health yet with Bubic and Lynch….but Bubic was the bright spot and if he goes down for an extended period of time that’s going to really hurt. You heard anything on Lynch lately? It’s too early yet…but I’m starting to question the offense a little bit more. They have a really nice top 5. Fully believe that…but the drop off is so steep after that. I’m not sure who, but they definitely need more MLB caliber hitters to create a longer lineup. The more this year goes on the more you realize…they really do have to pony up for a solid mlb hitter somewhere and at least a number 2 starter. As we are finding, the depth on the pitching side and hitting side isn’t there yet. And they lost to something games last year so you can’t expect it too….but they just seem pretty far away right now to where its entirely possible they are don’t make it to a 70 win season like I thought they would. Need the schedule to lighten up a little.
You know what I'm going to say, but I'm going to say it anyway. Outside of injuries (which there might be a pretty big one with Bubic), I don't think much can happen in a week to totally flip my thoughts on a team. That's the first week or the 13th week or the 25th week.
But yeah, they need more competent bats. Massey has been very disappointing, though I still believe in him long term. I thought Eaton could be a nice contributor. He's been horrible. I don't have as much confidence in him just because the pedigree isn't what Massey's is, but both were around average last season. That trumps a handful of games to start a year to me.
I really do, however, think the schedule is a bigger deal in the record than even I made it out to be. I think we know (and knew) that they're not as good as the good teams, but I'll be curious to see what they do with the bad teams. Unfortunately, they don't get a truly bad team until May 5. But in May, they get three against Oakland, three against Detroit and three against Washington with seven against the White Sox mixed in. Now, every one of those teams is also circling the Royals, so we'll see, but I think we'll really know how far away they are by Memorial Day.
If they can go 10-6 in those 16 games, split with middle ground teams like the Rangers, Angels, Diamondbacks and Orioles and find trouble against the Brewers and Padres, then you're looking at them being 21-29 at Memorial Day, which looks a lot better than the 4-12 we're seeing today. I'm not saying that's my prediction, but given how they played against the Giants and Rangers on the road trip, I think it's certainly possible.
All that to say, man it really sucks that they couldn't have found the big hit a couple more times. 6-10 would feel *SO* much better. That's kind of sad in itself, but it's the reality of the situation.
Detroit will be an interesting one. They should be better than Detroit in my eyes with where they are at. Hopefully that is the case. I think part of the disappointment for me is not that I expected them to be good (expected a little better than this start though)…its that the pitching has generally been good and they still started this way. Minus this series anyway.
The offense and bullpen hasn’t been what I expected.
Yeah, the offense has been really disappointing. I still think they should be better and will likely get on track soon enough, but they're hurt by guys like Massey and Olivares struggling. They need to add to the big four in a big way and the hope was that those two would be a big part of it, Reyes could hit some homers and Isbel could anchor the bottom of a lineup. But outside of a couple moments for Olivares and Reyes, not so much.
Weakest outfield in MLB. Olivares needs to go and hopefully Doziers end is near. Still hoping Melendez gets traded. Him and Olivares in outfield at same time is a definite loss.
Melendez has actually rated quite well defensively this year. It's easy to forget this, but he'd never played outfield before last season. An offseason of work has done him a lot of good there.
David, there's one other aspect to this whole "should they have traded Salvy?" discussion that I think is worthy of note: DM publicly made it clear many times that he had no interest in participating in trades that were "too one-sided." Apparently it might have hurt another GM's feelings or something. At any rate he always talked about the necessity of every trade being win-win for both teams. That may well be the reason that he didn't strike while the iron was hot with Salvy.
We can only hope that the new ownership and front office is more concerned with putting a winning team on the field and less concerned with the feelings of employees of other teams.
Dayton Moore clearly hurt this team. He could have traded Salvy years ago, but I talk to scouts and team officials nearly every day and I can promise you that the trade value once that contract was signed was essentially torpedoed. Sure, there could be one GM who would have given in, I guess, but I think you of all people would argue that counting on the exception isn't a great way to live.
I believe what they are doing now is far more transactional and analytical than ever before.
Nice Post...I was thinking the same on the use of Yarbrough... Hey, off topic, but have you any comments on Lovelady being ejected from the Royals? Maybe you have already commented...
I wrote about it when it happened, but I think they believed he wasn't fully back from TJ and sent him down. Then he got upset about it, tweeted about it and they moved him. The Braves have now also moved on.
The whole "well, it looks like a GOOD team sure wanted him" narrative that some Lovelady fanboys were throwing around went kaput QUICK. I don't have anything against the guy, but some people were acting like we just ditched a sure Cy Young candidate.
Why is it that MLB seems to stack opponents in the schedule? Not only do we play the Rangers in back to back weeks, but also the White Sox, Mariners, and Astros later in the year. This was a thing before the balanced schedule and I never understand why it’s the case.
I have no idea how the schedule is made. It's a crazy program now that, I think, tries to limit miles *and* fit everything in. It's pretty complex. It used to be an older couple, but I don't think it's intentional.
I appreciate Hunter Dozier confirming with the first two Texas batters on Monday night what I recently said about him not being a MLB-caliber infielder. The fact that his miscues set the stage for a 3-run HR merely underscores the point. Combine that with his woeful performance at the plate and I see almost zero trade value there.
The ability to play multiple positions means little if you can't play any of them well. He should be, at most, a "break glass in case of emergency" guy, stashed away on a minor league roster unless some truly dire situation with the big league club makes his presence necessary. I haven't looked it up but I assume that he has too many years of MLB service time to make that a legitimate possibility. (Maybe he has options left but I don't know.) The Royals need to make him someone else's problem ASAP, even if that means releasing him outright.
I don't think anyone believes Dozier is good. And yeah, there is zero trade value right now. There was zero trade value with Carlos Santana and then he got hot and they moved him for something, even if that something wasn't anything. They're trying that again. I wouldn't expect it to work, but I doubt Dozier is on the roster past the deadline one way or another.
I can't help but wonder who he's taking playing time away from. Lopez and Duffy probably. Plus various outfielders, especially Eaton. I know that Eaton is off to a horrific start but he's unlikely to fix that by sitting on the bench for a week. The presence of JBJ on the roster accomplishes nothing and serves merely to exacerbate that problem.
I think the only time Dozier has stepped foot in the outfield is to stretch before a game, so I wouldn't say he's taking any outfield time away from anyone. My guess is that if Nick Loftin stays hot, they'll make a move sooner than later.
My mistake! I had heard about plans to use him in RF a couple of months ago and just assumed that it had happened now and then. This team makes it mighty challenging to pay real close attention sometimes. Despite all the offseason changes, the apathy monster is lurking just over the horizon.
David, I'll admit it, I wrote this before I read your column. But I promise I'll get to it right now, I really will! FWIW, agree or disagree, these were my observations immediately after the end of the game on Sunday….
Buckle up, everybody. I'm afraid that this past weekend is pretty indicative of what's going to happen nearly every time the Royals come up against a real live top-flight major league baseball team. They may have some success against the weakest teams on their schedule and may even eventually hold their own with the mediocre-to-average teams they face, but they're nowhere near ready to deal with teams like the Braves. Perhaps nothing illuminates the gulf between the two teams so well as the 24-10 run differential over the three-game series.
It's tempting to think (hope) that this series might have been some sort of wake-up call for them but the problem is that they're not equipped to do much about it even if it was. Maybe they will be in 2025 or '26. (I wouldn't bet against it, but who knows?)
However that may be, they're definitely not there yet. Not by a country mile.
I think you wrote similarly to my thoughts. They aren't as good as the Braves. It's not surprising in any way and while I don't think there *can* be a wakeup call because they just aren't there, it can be a measuring stick to show just how far away they are. Gaps can be closed pretty quickly when the pieces are in place and that's the question that is going to be answered this season. Are the pieces in place to fill in the gaps?
If you feel good about Witt, Melendez, Pasquantino and Salvy as an offensive core, I'd say the pieces are there with some moves that they'll have to make. The severity of Bubic's injury and how much you believe in the first two starts will impact your belief of the rotation. If you think Singer and Bubic are building block pieces, that's a start. If you don't, that's going to be trouble. But that's what we'll find out for certain this year.
I personally believe in the methodology of what they're doing, so at least I know that if they don't succeed, it won't be because they went about things in an archaic way as they had been for too long. It doesn't make it any better, but I think they have the right plans in place to give an honest go of it. The schedule gets MUCH easier in May, but they also go to Milwaukee and San Diego, so there'll be another test then. We'll see. Early on, they're doing sort of what I thought they'd do.
I rather doubt that Salvy will be much of a contributor - or even available - if and when they become a contender again. I advocated strongly for trading him immediately after his 48HR season which was satisfying for the fans but contributed nothing to building a winning team. I took a lot of online heat for that but continue to believe that events will prove me right. No one will ever know who the prospects are that aren't in the organization because of their refusal to trade him. Maybe DM knows but he'll never admit to it.
I'll continue to say that I don't think Salvy has nearly the trade value that fans generally think. I don't think they'd have gotten back anywhere near enough to trade him. Catchers on the wrong side of 30 making $20+ million with rough defensive metrics aren't going to bring back the haul people were expecting.
Those are all valid points but there's also something we've seen in MLB many times before. All the Royals needed was one overexcited GM to convince himself that "analytics be damned, we're only a catcher away from the promised land!" and a substantial haul could certainly have been available. I've seen that happen so many times in baseball that I have to think there was a decent chance of it happening again.
The only team left who might make that trade is the Rockies, I think. So maybe there's a haul there, but I doubt it.
Oh I agree that his trade value is very little now. They failed to strike while the iron was hot right after that 48HR season. I'd be surprised if they could get much of anything for him these days.
Man, felt better about the Royals after last weekend…..back to feeling like “how is this going to work” again after this weekend. A lot depends on health yet with Bubic and Lynch….but Bubic was the bright spot and if he goes down for an extended period of time that’s going to really hurt. You heard anything on Lynch lately? It’s too early yet…but I’m starting to question the offense a little bit more. They have a really nice top 5. Fully believe that…but the drop off is so steep after that. I’m not sure who, but they definitely need more MLB caliber hitters to create a longer lineup. The more this year goes on the more you realize…they really do have to pony up for a solid mlb hitter somewhere and at least a number 2 starter. As we are finding, the depth on the pitching side and hitting side isn’t there yet. And they lost to something games last year so you can’t expect it too….but they just seem pretty far away right now to where its entirely possible they are don’t make it to a 70 win season like I thought they would. Need the schedule to lighten up a little.
You know what I'm going to say, but I'm going to say it anyway. Outside of injuries (which there might be a pretty big one with Bubic), I don't think much can happen in a week to totally flip my thoughts on a team. That's the first week or the 13th week or the 25th week.
But yeah, they need more competent bats. Massey has been very disappointing, though I still believe in him long term. I thought Eaton could be a nice contributor. He's been horrible. I don't have as much confidence in him just because the pedigree isn't what Massey's is, but both were around average last season. That trumps a handful of games to start a year to me.
I really do, however, think the schedule is a bigger deal in the record than even I made it out to be. I think we know (and knew) that they're not as good as the good teams, but I'll be curious to see what they do with the bad teams. Unfortunately, they don't get a truly bad team until May 5. But in May, they get three against Oakland, three against Detroit and three against Washington with seven against the White Sox mixed in. Now, every one of those teams is also circling the Royals, so we'll see, but I think we'll really know how far away they are by Memorial Day.
If they can go 10-6 in those 16 games, split with middle ground teams like the Rangers, Angels, Diamondbacks and Orioles and find trouble against the Brewers and Padres, then you're looking at them being 21-29 at Memorial Day, which looks a lot better than the 4-12 we're seeing today. I'm not saying that's my prediction, but given how they played against the Giants and Rangers on the road trip, I think it's certainly possible.
All that to say, man it really sucks that they couldn't have found the big hit a couple more times. 6-10 would feel *SO* much better. That's kind of sad in itself, but it's the reality of the situation.
Detroit will be an interesting one. They should be better than Detroit in my eyes with where they are at. Hopefully that is the case. I think part of the disappointment for me is not that I expected them to be good (expected a little better than this start though)…its that the pitching has generally been good and they still started this way. Minus this series anyway.
The offense and bullpen hasn’t been what I expected.
Yeah, the offense has been really disappointing. I still think they should be better and will likely get on track soon enough, but they're hurt by guys like Massey and Olivares struggling. They need to add to the big four in a big way and the hope was that those two would be a big part of it, Reyes could hit some homers and Isbel could anchor the bottom of a lineup. But outside of a couple moments for Olivares and Reyes, not so much.
Weakest outfield in MLB. Olivares needs to go and hopefully Doziers end is near. Still hoping Melendez gets traded. Him and Olivares in outfield at same time is a definite loss.
Melendez has actually rated quite well defensively this year. It's easy to forget this, but he'd never played outfield before last season. An offseason of work has done him a lot of good there.
David, there's one other aspect to this whole "should they have traded Salvy?" discussion that I think is worthy of note: DM publicly made it clear many times that he had no interest in participating in trades that were "too one-sided." Apparently it might have hurt another GM's feelings or something. At any rate he always talked about the necessity of every trade being win-win for both teams. That may well be the reason that he didn't strike while the iron was hot with Salvy.
We can only hope that the new ownership and front office is more concerned with putting a winning team on the field and less concerned with the feelings of employees of other teams.
Dayton Moore clearly hurt this team. He could have traded Salvy years ago, but I talk to scouts and team officials nearly every day and I can promise you that the trade value once that contract was signed was essentially torpedoed. Sure, there could be one GM who would have given in, I guess, but I think you of all people would argue that counting on the exception isn't a great way to live.
I believe what they are doing now is far more transactional and analytical than ever before.
Nice Post...I was thinking the same on the use of Yarbrough... Hey, off topic, but have you any comments on Lovelady being ejected from the Royals? Maybe you have already commented...
Thanks
Geg
I wrote about it when it happened, but I think they believed he wasn't fully back from TJ and sent him down. Then he got upset about it, tweeted about it and they moved him. The Braves have now also moved on.
Thanks... I figured it was something like that...
The whole "well, it looks like a GOOD team sure wanted him" narrative that some Lovelady fanboys were throwing around went kaput QUICK. I don't have anything against the guy, but some people were acting like we just ditched a sure Cy Young candidate.
I thought there was way too much anger over a middle reliever. I like Lovelady too!
Why is it that MLB seems to stack opponents in the schedule? Not only do we play the Rangers in back to back weeks, but also the White Sox, Mariners, and Astros later in the year. This was a thing before the balanced schedule and I never understand why it’s the case.
I have no idea how the schedule is made. It's a crazy program now that, I think, tries to limit miles *and* fit everything in. It's pretty complex. It used to be an older couple, but I don't think it's intentional.
I appreciate Hunter Dozier confirming with the first two Texas batters on Monday night what I recently said about him not being a MLB-caliber infielder. The fact that his miscues set the stage for a 3-run HR merely underscores the point. Combine that with his woeful performance at the plate and I see almost zero trade value there.
The ability to play multiple positions means little if you can't play any of them well. He should be, at most, a "break glass in case of emergency" guy, stashed away on a minor league roster unless some truly dire situation with the big league club makes his presence necessary. I haven't looked it up but I assume that he has too many years of MLB service time to make that a legitimate possibility. (Maybe he has options left but I don't know.) The Royals need to make him someone else's problem ASAP, even if that means releasing him outright.
I don't think anyone believes Dozier is good. And yeah, there is zero trade value right now. There was zero trade value with Carlos Santana and then he got hot and they moved him for something, even if that something wasn't anything. They're trying that again. I wouldn't expect it to work, but I doubt Dozier is on the roster past the deadline one way or another.
I can't help but wonder who he's taking playing time away from. Lopez and Duffy probably. Plus various outfielders, especially Eaton. I know that Eaton is off to a horrific start but he's unlikely to fix that by sitting on the bench for a week. The presence of JBJ on the roster accomplishes nothing and serves merely to exacerbate that problem.
I think the only time Dozier has stepped foot in the outfield is to stretch before a game, so I wouldn't say he's taking any outfield time away from anyone. My guess is that if Nick Loftin stays hot, they'll make a move sooner than later.
My mistake! I had heard about plans to use him in RF a couple of months ago and just assumed that it had happened now and then. This team makes it mighty challenging to pay real close attention sometimes. Despite all the offseason changes, the apathy monster is lurking just over the horizon.