Royals With the Most to Gain This Spring

Some Royals players are entrenched in their roles. Others have a lot to prove.

Spring training games are about to get underway, which means that for those of us who haven’t been able to be there to see the workouts, we’ll actually have some information available beyond reports. With all the caveats regarding the dangers of spring stats applying, there is still more to the exhibition schedule than just getting guys ready to play. There are positional battles throughout camps and performance will be evaluated to determine who makes teams, who starts and vice versa. What that means is that there are players who stand to gain quite a bit from spring training and I want to take a look at them.

Some of these players aren’t in danger of missing the roster or even losing their starting jobs, but they still have quite a bit to gain regarding their future. So let’s take a look.

Mason Barnett/Chandler Champlain

I’m going to group these two together because it just makes sense. Prospects in their first big league camp are always interesting to me because a lot of their purpose there is for the coaching staff to get to see them up close and personal. I remember back in 2016 when Matt Strahm caught the attention of Ned Yost and you just knew that he was going to have a spot on that roster at some point during the season. Barnett and/or Champlain both can get their foot in the door even if they are about the longest of longshots to make the roster. NRIs always have a lot to gain in the spring and often very little to lose. That makes for dangerous players.

Jake Brentz

There was a time in 2021 that Brentz was considered the best option to close games for the Royals. He’s a lefty with a big, big fastball and a slider that misses bats. But his control isn’t especially good and then he started 2022 off horribly, missed most of that year and then all of 2023. It started with Tommy John that cost him most of the time, but then an injury as he was on the way back last season cost him the rest of 2023. But the Royals liked him enough to give him a two-year deal to keep him around for 2024 and, well, here we are.

Anne Rogers wrote about Brentz in camp and how he’s added a split-changeup to his arsenal. That should help him against right-handed bats, who hit him pretty well in his limited sample as a healthy big leaguer. If he can show that he’s even close to the 2021 version, he’s an easy favorite for one of those bullpen spots that’s still available and really rounds out a versatile bullpen that would then feature multiple lefties and a bunch of different types of pitchers and arm angles. The Royals might be best off if he’s the one to take down that lost spot too because it likely means he’s back to being very effective.

Nate Eaton

This is going to be pretty short, but Eaton’s brutal start to 2023 took him completely off the radar. He lost his 40-man spot and that was that. But this was a guy who hit .264/.331/.387 in his first big league action in 2022 with some truly elite outfield defense. There were some red flags in the metrics, yes, but he looked like a guy who could be a championship player at the bottom of a roster for years to come. Then he went 4 for 53 and that was that. But he’s still the guy he was in 2022 when he made a strong impression and has a chance to get back into the good graces of the organization with a big spring.

Maikel Garcia

This one may seem odd given his popularity, but I think Garcia can establish himself as the Royals third baseman for years to come in 2024 and that begins with a strong spring. Like it or not, these impressions can impact the leash a player has and if he goes out and continues what he did in the winter leagues (.424/.543/.576) this spring, he can probably withstand a bit longer of a slow start if he were to have one. I’m not even saying he will, but if he does, having a great spring after looking so good in winter ball would be big for him.

Plus, the Royals have their shortstop locked up for the next seven years at least and they have a couple of third basemen in the minors - Cayden Wallace and Trevor Werner - along with rumors of bringing in another third baseman. Garcia can solidify himself as a defensive wizard at third who can hold his own with the bat with a strong spring. He’s the starting third baseman already, barring some sort of brutal spring or a great one from Nick Loftin, but he can really solidify his long-term standing and give himself some extra rope.

Kyle Isbel

The feeling right now is that Isbel is a stopgap center fielder for the Royals. He’s a very good defender and his bat is occasionally fine. But the Royals have some others on the way. Gavin Cross had a horrible 2023, but I was shocked to read in Keith Law’s Royals prospects writeup that Cross had a tick borne illness for basically all of 2023 that sapped power from him. I’m willing to give him a mulligan on that. He might be a center fielder, but even that chance makes Isbel’s hold tenuous at best. Carson Roccaforte is definitely a center fielder. They also have Dairon Blanco, who isn’t a long-term answer but could be a multi-year answer in a similar way to Isbel. And there’s Drew Waters, who is kind of forgotten, I feel like.

Isbel hit .262/.300/.399 in the second half last year. He hit .267/.365/.400 in September. He is excellent defensively in an outfield with a lot of questions defensively in the corners. In general, this is a huge season for Isbel, but that starts in spring training where he’ll need to fight off Waters and Blanco before seeing if he can get Cross and others moved to a corner and be more than a stopgap center fielder for this club. I remember how he won a job on the 2021 Opening Day roster with a beautiful swing that was hitting rockets to all fields against all pitchers. He needs another one of those springs.

Daniel Lynch IV

As of this moment, Jordan Lyles is the Royals fifth starter. That is not written in ink, despite his contract, from what I’ve been told. I’m not sure exactly how real the competition is, though. Does Lyles have to completely tank? Does Lynch have to look like prime Big Unit? I can’t tell you if it’s that or something in between, but there is a chance that Lynch breaks camp as the Royals fifth starter. And yes, they do need one as early as the ninth game of the season. This is a big year for him. He’s gotten big league time in each of the last three seasons, with an improving ERA each year, but peripherals that get a little scary.

Last season, he had his shot, but really missed out because of his shoulder issues. But if he can come to camp and have a good spring, I think there are two possible outcomes. One is that he’s in the rotation. He might get optioned to start the year since they don’t need that starter until the ninth game of the year, but that’s procedural. Or he looks so good that he actually gets first dibs at a starting spot if and when that’s needed from the original starting five. In a weird way, if he doesn’t win that fifth starter job, it might be even better for him if he’s sent to AAA to stay stretched out.

Michael Massey

This one is pretty obvious. He’s the starter at second, but the Royals didn’t sign Adam Frazier to keep Massey comfortable in that role. He’s going to be pushed, so he’s legitimately competing for his job. While I’m less sure about what sort of competition there is for the fifth starter job, I feel pretty confident in saying that it’s a lot closer to 55/45 in favor of Massey over Frazier right now than what I think is probably 80/20 in favor of Lyles over Lynch. Massey had a really good spring last year and then got off to a brutal start to the season. But he did bounce back some for the rest of the year. He drew some walks, he struck out less and he showed legitimate power.

His edge over Frazier is defensively, at least based on 2023. Frazier has generally been rated well as a second baseman, but his numbers were atrocious last year while Massey was solid to good. Plus, Massey has the relationship with Witt that does mean something. If Massey continues to work the occasional walk, swing and miss less and hit for power in Arizona, he’s going to win that starting job. But also he faces some competition from Nick Loftin as well, so maybe it’s really 50/40/10 on the chances to win that job. It’s a big spring for Massey.

There are others with plenty to gain. MJ Melendez is still on the team and he needs a big spring to show his second half wasn’t a fluke. Nelson Velazquez isn’t guaranteed anything. Steven Cruz and Will Klein and even Carlos Hernandez need to throw quality strikes to show they can be a part of a good big league bullpen. All of the veterans brought in on minor league deals are showcasing for the Royals and the whole league. But I think the eight above have the most to gain from a strong spring training. And the action starts tomorrow.

Note: I’ve got some thoughts on Eric Hosmer and QuikTrip that I haven’t really had time to put together, but they’ll be addressed in tomorrow’s Crown Jewels!