Rule 5 Eligible Players I Like for the Royals

The Royals can't afford to pass on the opportunity to acquire free talent again.

The Rule 5 draft is one of the more interesting phenomenons in sports. Players have a certain amount of time they can be in an organization before they’re made available to anyone with a spot open for them on their 40-man roster. Some players get protected and are added to their team’s 40-man roster while others obviously aren’t. They are then eligible to be picked in the Rule 5 draft on the last day of the Winter Meetings and they’re subject to some very specific rules that makes it a bit of a difficult proposition for the acquiring team.

A player chosen in the Rule 5 draft must spend the entire season on the big league roster. If the selecting team does not want to keep the player on the roster, they need to pass through waivers and then are offered back to the original team for $50,000, which is half of the original fee to select the player. Sometimes the original team takes the player back, sometimes they make a trade for the choosing team to keep them. It’s a little convoluted, but a lot of fun. With this draft, you’re not selecting the best of the best. If the players were that good, they wouldn’t be available. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some gems, especially as players sneak through the cracks.

While there are some really big successes from original drafts, the latest rules make the players a bit more of a wild card. Still, Anthony Santander, Mark Canha, Garrett Whitlock and even Brad Keller are some of the biggest successes in recent years. Others like Josh Hamilton, Joakim Soria and Johan Santana are highlights of the current system but a few years before that. So it’s possible to find some interesting players. It’s highly unlikely a team will find a star, but there’s more to a team than stars. This is a spot teams like the Royals need to be active because this is nearly free talent available to a team sorely lacking.

I have a theory that I like to mess around with every year and it’s that you can have a decent idea of potential picks and how successful they can be by starting with their strikeout and walk rates. Hitters who walk a lot and don’t strike out much are likely to be able to hang. Pitchers who don’t walk too many and strike out a good amount can generally be contributors. This can certainly overlook talented individuals who need refining, so it’s not a perfect way of looking at it, but I do think it’s a pretty good way to see who can actually contribute as a Rule 5 pick. And it often looks at players who aren’t covered as closely by some others who preview this draft.

So I looked at every Rule 5 eligible player on every team and narrowed my list down to 71 names. There are 21 hitters and 50 pitchers on my spreadsheet. Then I dug in a little deeper to find my favorites to share with you. It’s stat scouting at its finest, but for this draft, I’ve been able to be pretty accurate doing it this way for a few years.

Hitters

Trenton Brooks, Giants

Position(s): 1B/OF
B/T: L/L
2023 Stats: .286/.400/.516, 14.9% BB, 14.7% K
Highest Level: AAA
2024 Age: 28

Some of the power may have come from the PCL, but Brooks has been productive throughout his minor league career. He was drafted by Cleveland in the 17th round in 2016, and you can see by his age that he’s definitely not on the young side. But he works a walk, knows the zone and doesn’t swing and miss often. That he’s been passed over by the Guardians, who badly need outfield help, and the A’s, who badly need everything says he’s probably not going to be great, but let’s be honest and understand that teams miss on guys all the time. He’s good enough in the corner outfield, by all accounts. I may prefer him to Nick Pratto at this point.

Isaac Collins, Brewers

Position(s): 2B/OF
B/T: S/R
2023 Stats: .263/.419/.421, 20.0% BB, 14.5% K
Highest Level: AAA
2024 Age: 26

Collins was taken by the Brewers in last year’s AAA phase of the Rule 5 draft, so getting selected in the big league portion could be sort of interesting. The walk rate compared with the strikeout rate stands out to me about Collins. He doesn’t make great contact, but he can run and he can handle both second base and the outfield. He’d probably be fine at shortstop in a pinch too, but there isn’t much of a need for that right now with both Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia. He’s a bit redundant in terms of positional ability, but the Royals don’t have a lot of guys like him in the way he goes about his at bats.

Tristin English, Diamondbacks

Position(s): 1B/3B/OF
B/T: R/R
2023 Stats: .300/.390/.548, 22.9% K, 11.6% BB
Highest Level: AAA
2024 Age: 27

English was a third round pick of the Diamondbacks in 2019 and flashed big power for the first time in 2023. He swings and misses a bit more than the others on this list, but a .248 ISO is nothing to sneeze at either even when considering his home parks. He gets it done with a pretty easy swing that shouldn’t require a lot of maintenance at the big league level. He can stand at third and make the plays on balls right to him, but he’s more of an outfielder if he isn’t a first baseman even though there was some thought he could handle third a few years ago. Maybe he still could. He’s intriguing for the power and the efficient swing.

Nick Podkul, Phillies

Position(s): 1B/2B/3B
B/T: R/R
2023 Stats: .284/.407/.584, 13.9% BB, 19.9% K
Highest Level: AAA
2024 Age: 27

He had been more of a gap to gap type hitter previously, but the power was really on display in 2023. Is it for real? He doesn’t hit a ton of line drives, but he does lift the ball and he was always noted for legitimate raw power. I’d put him in a similar category to Devin Mann who the Royals didn’t protect, but I don’t know. I think he can be a contributor.

Starting Pitchers

These are pitchers who worked as starters in the minors, but likely would at least start their big league career as a Rule 5 pick in the bullpen.

Robert Colina, RHP, Mets

2023 Stats: 67.2 IP, 67 H, 3.72 ERA, 28.8% K, 5.6% BB
Highest Level: AA
2024 Age: 23

The highest level Colina reached was technically AA, but he only made one appearance there, so he’s pretty raw. Still, there’s a lot to like. He has a fastball that I’ve seen reports reached up to 96 while sitting 91-93 or so. He gets some decent spin on the fastball and has a high-spin curve too. I’m not entirely sure how well he’d fare in the big leagues given his lack of experience, but this is the sort of profile that tends to work in a Rule 5 pick.

Edit: Originally I had Jose Corniell from the Rangers on here. I completely overlooked that he was protected. Whoops.

Matt Sauer, Yankees

2023 Stats: 74 IP, 51 H, 3.41 ERA, 30.3% K, 9.4% BB
Highest Level: AA
2024 Age: 25

The Yankees used their draft savings they got by taking Clarke Schmidt and spent it on Sauer in 2017. Then he blew out his elbow in 2019. He hasn’t been the same. The fastball doesn’t hit the upper-90s, but does get to the mid-90s. His slider is really good and his curve is just sort of there. I see reliever profile now, though there is a chance things can come back for him or he can improve on his changeup. Either way, he gets a lot of swings and misses and his control is good enough to succeed.

Relievers

Nelson Alvarez, RHP, Rays

2023 Stats: 52.2 IP, 40 H, 3.59 ERA, 35.7% K, 10.0% BB
Highest Level: AA
2024 Age: 26

I’m intrigued by the strikeouts here and the ability to not get hit around. Plus, he got a ton of grounders in 2023 with a 54.3 percent rate across high-A and AA. To be able to get so many strikeouts and keep the ball on the ground is impressive. His arm strength is where his upside lies. He can get to the upper-90s with his fastball and his slider flashes plus. It’s a risk, but all of these guys are risks.

Luarbert Arias, RHP, Marlins

2023 Stats: 58.2 IP, 39 H, 1.84 ERA, 33.8% K, 6.5% BB
Highest Level: AA
2024 Age: 23

He doesn’t have big velocity, but he throws strikes and has a nasty changeup that gets him his swings and misses. I think it’s fair to doubt if it’ll work at the big league level or if they’ll hammer a low-90s fastball, but given the current state of the bullpen, they can waste these innings on someone a whole lot worse than Arias.

Lazaro Estrada, RHP, Blue Jays

2023 Stats: 76.1 IP, 55 H, 2.83 ERA, 33.3% K, 8.4% BB
Highest Level: A
2024 Age: 25

Estrada was signed out of Cuba in 2018 and has been generally successful ever since. As a reliever, his fastball sat in the mid-90s but has some pop to get a little more when he needs it. He has a curve with freakish spin rates as his secondary pitch. I don’t generally love fastball/curveball pitchers, but I like his curve enough that I’d look past it. The Blue Jays had him starting some this season, but he’s not a starter long-term. There’s a bit of pause for me given his age at the level, but I like the player here.

Leon Hunter, Jr., RHP, Mariners

2023 Stats: 33.1 IP, 22 H, 2.70 ERA, 36.8% K, 8.5% BB
Highest Level: AAA
2024 Age: 27

Again, the strikeout rate is, well, striking. He struggled with control in the Arizona Fall League, but still got a number of swings and misses. The velocity isn’t elite, but he’s a big boy and I do wonder if there’s more in there. I don’t know if the fastball is good enough to get outs, but, again, why not try?

Miguel Rodriguez, RHP, Twins

2023 Stats: 54.2 IP, 51 H, 3.13 ERA, 28.7% K, 6.5% BB
Highest Level: AA
2024 Age: 25

Reports indicate that his fastball is 92-93 and can top out around 95, which is fine. He has a solid slider and a solid changeup. When he moved to AA last season, the strikeout rate jumped up and the walk rate decreased, which is something you love to see. He had an unreasonably low strand rate which led to a higher ERA, but overall, he looks like a guy who should be able to at least compete at a higher level, though it may be a bit of a struggle because I did talk to one person who saw him once (so take that with a grain of salt) who said the fastball straightens out sometimes.

Braxton Roxby, RHP, Reds

2023 Stats: 59.1 IP, 40 H, 3.34 ERA, 30.2% K, 8.9% BB
Highest Level: AA
2024 Age: 25

Roxby was undrafted, but I wonder a little if he’d have gone in a later round had he not been in the 2020 draft that was only five rounds. He was signed by the Reds and worked a lot with Kyle Boddy of Driveline to rework his mechanics. After he was drafted, he had a one-seam fastball to his four-seamer and that’s caused some problems for hitters. He also has a sweeper that’s been tough on opponents. The cause for concern is that his swinging strike rate ticked down in his second go-round in high-A, but I’ll repeat what I’ve said a lot. If he was a lower variance prospect with more upside, he’d have been protected. You’re finding diamonds in the rough here.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Rangers

2023 Stats: 59.2 IP, 44 H, 2.87 ERA, 36.6% K, 8.5% BB
Highest Level: AAA
2024 Age: 26

If you’re looking for stuff, look no further. Slaten has a 60-65 fastball (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and a 70 slider. He gets tons of whiffs, but his command isn’t the best. The walk rate was fine, but there will be times that he doesn’t know where the ball is going. Sometimes that works, other times not. It’s not about control as it is about commanding the ball in and out of the zone. There’s some question if his fastball can maintain throughout an outing, but as a reliever, it works just fine.

There are obviously plenty of other options than these 14 players I’ve listed above. I had a few more on the list who ended up getting protected by their teams, so that was a bit of a disappointment. If in a trade they can target Jacob Hurtubise from the Reds, Wilmer Flores from the Tigers, Nick Frasso and Landon Knack from the Dodgers, Anthony Maldonado from the Marlins, Austin Shenton from the Rays, Justin Foscue and Antoine Kelly from the Rangers and/or Zach Brzycky from the Nationals, let’s just say I wouldn’t be upset.

There is one more roster deadline this week, but I think the Royals absolutely need to make sure they have room to add talent in this draft because there are multiple players who can help.