Well, there is really no excuse not to pick someone this year. And honestly, of the list you have only Corneill is 21. Most of the guys are 25ish and its pretty much go time for if you are mlb caliber or not. Every situation is different obviously, but most of these guys are in that age range where you are in your peak years and you can’t say you haven’t had chances yet. Really, no reason they can’t bring in a pitcher with stuff and have the staff work with him and have him be a reliever. No reason at all. Now the question is….do you think they will select someone?
I'd say 60/40 they make a pick. After tomorrow's non-tender deadline, I'll probably have a much better idea one way or another, but keep in mind too that they have almost three weeks after tomorrow to either clear space if they don't tomorrow or sign guys to fill space they could clear.
I just want to add to this that there is an excuse not to pick someone. If you're in the Rule 5, it's because your team who theoretically knows you better than anyone didn't think you were worth protecting. Sometimes that's due to a roster crunch, but you'd be surprised the dead weight on even the best rosters. By selecting someone, you're putting a guy who has a relatively small chance of making it through the season on the 40-man roster and taking up a spot at least all winter. Does it ultimately matter if you're sitting there with some of the guys the Royals have? No. But also, the odds of a Rule 5 pick working aren't good enough to get up in arms if they don't take someone. I think they should, but I'm also fairly meh on it.
I’m gonna take the other side a little bit here though. And I totally get what you are saying. But the Royals are coming off a 106 loss season…which was on the back of a 90 loss season. This roster has about 10 guys of the 40 that they can move on from without any remorse. This is roster turnover to me more than anything else. So….I’ve kind of got the opinion they don’t really have an excuse this year. Pick up someone you think can be better than Heasley for example. The 21 year old with stuff….thats more upside than I see with Heasley. It’s just an example…and yes….EVERY year isn’t really realistic. But I don’t believe they picked anyone last year….and they still lost 106. This is part of being transactional. Most of the time it wont’ work….but keep turning that roster and you’ll find someone eventually.
It’s more just about where the Royals are now as you were saying. This roster….doesn’t really have anything to lose by selecting someone. Most of the time it’s meh.
Really, just turn the bottom 25% of this roster somehow. Bowlan, Brentz, Castillo, Heasley, Snider, Josh Taylor, Pratto, Samad Taylor, Dairon Blanco, Olivares. I mean, that’s 11 guys right there that either are hurt, not good enough, or don’t really fit on this team. It’s a process, I know and have to see what they do here.
I think it's logical to say it's worth the risk to take someone. I just don't think it's much of a big deal either way given the talent that comes from this particular avenue.
Thanks David for your great analysis! The Royals frankly are playing catch up for some disaster drafts and the 2018 draft of college pitchers cannot be considered a success if Brady Singer is the only pitcher to consistently be at the MLB level and his 2023 season was mediocre. I am also surprised how many of the 2018 pitchers cannot stay healthy either! Any thoughts on injury rate for Royals pitchers compared to other teams? Why can’t we keep them healthy?
Look around the game. Pitchers get hurt. Three of the Rays top five starters missed time in 2023 and will miss most or all of 2024. The Guardians had three guys make 20+ starts. The Dodgers had issues. It's not the Royals. It's pitchers.
David, I have a doctoral degree with a double major in physiology and exercise physiology. In my kinesiology class at Indiana University, the professor showed an x-ray film of a pitcher throwing a baseball and the contortions made by the lower arm bones was excruciating to watch. Multiply that overhand throwing motion by thousands of times and it is no wonder the pitchers have arm injuries! The human arm was built to throw underhand! Dan Q. was the Royals’ greatest reliever and threw underhanded! Perhaps, the Royals can hire professional kinesiology consultants to help their pitchers avoid serious arm injury because whatever they are doing now does not appear to be working? I also advocate for a six pitcher starting rotation to lower the number of innings pitched over the marathon 162 game season!
There are plenty of arguments that pitching less is actually hurting them more. I honestly don't know enough to know the answer, but whatever the Royals are doing, they're doing it as well (or as poorly, however you want to look at it) as everyone else. Injuries are a big issue throughout the game, and are certainly not isolated to one or even a few teams.
So when a player is cut, they are exposed to waivers where they're available to every team in the league without having to compete with other teams for that player. The waiver wire goes in reverse order of standings. It's a bit different for a player designated for assignment because they will work out a trade to acquire that player, but the order is still the same. If a player gets through all 29 other teams, they've "cleared" waivers and are a full-on free agent.
See, this is why I subscribe to this newsletter. I love baseball, but to comb through that many players and come up with a 72-man spreadsheet, you can’t just love baseball. You have to be obsessed.
I'd like to see them take a pitcher or two and stick them in the pen, where there is plenty of room at the moment.
All of those hitters look pretty similar to Devin Mann, hopefully they can just keep Mann on a minor league deal. If Mann is not selected in the Rule 5, I think the Royals still have his rights?
The Royals definitely do still have his rights if he's not picked. And then he'd be subject to the same thing next year. I believe one more year and he'd be eligible to become a minor league free agent.
Well, there is really no excuse not to pick someone this year. And honestly, of the list you have only Corneill is 21. Most of the guys are 25ish and its pretty much go time for if you are mlb caliber or not. Every situation is different obviously, but most of these guys are in that age range where you are in your peak years and you can’t say you haven’t had chances yet. Really, no reason they can’t bring in a pitcher with stuff and have the staff work with him and have him be a reliever. No reason at all. Now the question is….do you think they will select someone?
I'd say 60/40 they make a pick. After tomorrow's non-tender deadline, I'll probably have a much better idea one way or another, but keep in mind too that they have almost three weeks after tomorrow to either clear space if they don't tomorrow or sign guys to fill space they could clear.
I just want to add to this that there is an excuse not to pick someone. If you're in the Rule 5, it's because your team who theoretically knows you better than anyone didn't think you were worth protecting. Sometimes that's due to a roster crunch, but you'd be surprised the dead weight on even the best rosters. By selecting someone, you're putting a guy who has a relatively small chance of making it through the season on the 40-man roster and taking up a spot at least all winter. Does it ultimately matter if you're sitting there with some of the guys the Royals have? No. But also, the odds of a Rule 5 pick working aren't good enough to get up in arms if they don't take someone. I think they should, but I'm also fairly meh on it.
I’m gonna take the other side a little bit here though. And I totally get what you are saying. But the Royals are coming off a 106 loss season…which was on the back of a 90 loss season. This roster has about 10 guys of the 40 that they can move on from without any remorse. This is roster turnover to me more than anything else. So….I’ve kind of got the opinion they don’t really have an excuse this year. Pick up someone you think can be better than Heasley for example. The 21 year old with stuff….thats more upside than I see with Heasley. It’s just an example…and yes….EVERY year isn’t really realistic. But I don’t believe they picked anyone last year….and they still lost 106. This is part of being transactional. Most of the time it wont’ work….but keep turning that roster and you’ll find someone eventually.
It’s more just about where the Royals are now as you were saying. This roster….doesn’t really have anything to lose by selecting someone. Most of the time it’s meh.
Really, just turn the bottom 25% of this roster somehow. Bowlan, Brentz, Castillo, Heasley, Snider, Josh Taylor, Pratto, Samad Taylor, Dairon Blanco, Olivares. I mean, that’s 11 guys right there that either are hurt, not good enough, or don’t really fit on this team. It’s a process, I know and have to see what they do here.
I think it's logical to say it's worth the risk to take someone. I just don't think it's much of a big deal either way given the talent that comes from this particular avenue.
Informative review....lets hope the Royals are doing their homework....
I can promise you they have done much more homework than I have here. If they make a pick, well, we'll see about that.
Thanks David for your great analysis! The Royals frankly are playing catch up for some disaster drafts and the 2018 draft of college pitchers cannot be considered a success if Brady Singer is the only pitcher to consistently be at the MLB level and his 2023 season was mediocre. I am also surprised how many of the 2018 pitchers cannot stay healthy either! Any thoughts on injury rate for Royals pitchers compared to other teams? Why can’t we keep them healthy?
Look around the game. Pitchers get hurt. Three of the Rays top five starters missed time in 2023 and will miss most or all of 2024. The Guardians had three guys make 20+ starts. The Dodgers had issues. It's not the Royals. It's pitchers.
David, I have a doctoral degree with a double major in physiology and exercise physiology. In my kinesiology class at Indiana University, the professor showed an x-ray film of a pitcher throwing a baseball and the contortions made by the lower arm bones was excruciating to watch. Multiply that overhand throwing motion by thousands of times and it is no wonder the pitchers have arm injuries! The human arm was built to throw underhand! Dan Q. was the Royals’ greatest reliever and threw underhanded! Perhaps, the Royals can hire professional kinesiology consultants to help their pitchers avoid serious arm injury because whatever they are doing now does not appear to be working? I also advocate for a six pitcher starting rotation to lower the number of innings pitched over the marathon 162 game season!
There are plenty of arguments that pitching less is actually hurting them more. I honestly don't know enough to know the answer, but whatever the Royals are doing, they're doing it as well (or as poorly, however you want to look at it) as everyone else. Injuries are a big issue throughout the game, and are certainly not isolated to one or even a few teams.
David, yours is the best explanation of the Rule 5 Draft I've seen lately. But I have a question:
What does "clearing waivers" mean? I've never understood what's in waivers with regard to baseball and players in general.
So when a player is cut, they are exposed to waivers where they're available to every team in the league without having to compete with other teams for that player. The waiver wire goes in reverse order of standings. It's a bit different for a player designated for assignment because they will work out a trade to acquire that player, but the order is still the same. If a player gets through all 29 other teams, they've "cleared" waivers and are a full-on free agent.
Thanks! Not sure I can explain to anyone else without quoting you word for word, but that's not the worst thing in the world.!
Ha, you can make it your own!
See, this is why I subscribe to this newsletter. I love baseball, but to comb through that many players and come up with a 72-man spreadsheet, you can’t just love baseball. You have to be obsessed.
Oh you know I am!
You put a ton of work in here, and it’s much appreciated. Looking forward to seeing what KC does!
I'd like to see them take a pitcher or two and stick them in the pen, where there is plenty of room at the moment.
All of those hitters look pretty similar to Devin Mann, hopefully they can just keep Mann on a minor league deal. If Mann is not selected in the Rule 5, I think the Royals still have his rights?
The Royals definitely do still have his rights if he's not picked. And then he'd be subject to the same thing next year. I believe one more year and he'd be eligible to become a minor league free agent.
You're GM DL and you're on record saying you'd make a move. So, everyone is available - who do you take?
On this list, I’d jump on Slaten. Results have been good and the stuff is probably the best of any of them.
Awesome article, David. Thank you for doing the research on this. Quite fascinating. A happy early Thanksgiving to you and your Family.
Thanks, Mark! Happy Thanksgiving to you as well.