I’ve got a theory on the umpiring. I know it shouldn’t matter and the strike zone is the strike zone. But you know the royals have to have a reputation around the league as pitchers that walk a lot of people. Umpires usually know that as well. Couple that with being younger…only Grienke would have a higher reputation than the hitters they are facing. I think you see alot of call go the other way. One of those…if you were better…you’d get more kind of deals. But who knows…bring on the auto balls and strikes already.
One of my biggest fears is actually another big jump in winning percentage after the break. Maybe its just sales pitch from the front office but EVERY year its “they’ve played so much better after the break. We are on to something here.” Just stop with it already, a strong second half doesn’t make us in better position for next year. It would be nice to see a strong second half for the younger guys but also have the FO acknowledge through actions that it doesn’t mean it will translate to next year. It hasn’t in the last 5 years and won’t again next year without major overhauls.
Oh I think you're right on the umpiring. It's just crazy that they can't be consistent like at all.
The end of year jump is both concerning to me in a weird way and not. I think it's one thing when it's guys like Ryan O'Hearn who were never big prospects having a great second half like he did in 2018, but if the Royals start winning with Witt, Melendez, Pasquantino, Pratto, Massey, etc., then that's actually meaningful. I don't think they can win consistently with their pitching anyway, but they have already gone 19-19 in their last 38 anyway, so maybe I'm wrong.
Couldn't agree more. I've been saying for years that every September the Royals put up an impressive record against (mostly) minor league pitching, which gives the front office a plausible-ish sounding excuse for not doing what needs to be done in the off-season. While we can all hope things will be different this time around, I know of no reason to actually expect that.
The biggest reason is that the rosters don't expand to 40 anymore in September. Their September/October schedule includes 22 of 31 games against teams playing for something. If they play well in September, it'll be against good teams and big league pitchers.
Hadn't thought about that aspect of it before. Thanks for pointing that out. It could definitely mean a little more if they do well in those games this year. Maybe.
Well, if there is going to be redemption for this year, they need to move on from the past. We saw a glimmer of the future just before the All Star game. I hope we don't wait long before we see it again.
Some of it may get pushed by the "10" players themselves. Once play resumes, and the boo boys come out, they may ask to be traded. The star did a survey and almost 3/4s of the responders wanted at least some or most moved. That can't be lost on the players or management.
I don't think booing fans moves the needle all that much and I'm not sure it should. But I do think lost trust in the clubhouse does and I'm guessing that's why Merrifield gets traded.
I truly have no idea if they're actually going to try to move on from Whit/Dozier/MAT. Benintendi at least makes sense to trade, but when it comes to those other three I'm still conflicted on what I think they're actually going to do. On the one hand, we have a large sample to draw from of this FO just sitting on their hands to their own detriment, but on the other hand the whole PR fiasco that was the Toronto series feels more serious than the general fan unrest that's accompanied the season so far.
The answer we don't know yet is who is actually running point on the trade deadline. Dayton said in an interview with Petro the other day that it was JJ, but he also said that other teams were gaming the restricted list and I dug in and realized he was dead wrong on that. If JJ is actually running that show, we honestly don't know what he'll do. Maybe he's just like his boss, but maybe he isn't. From everything I've heard, they are in active talks regarding a lot of players. We'll see if it gets anywhere.
I’m still of the opinion they have to do something here to address Whit’s comments specifically and change the expectation in the clubhouse. If they wait until the trade deadline…….I guess. But if they all come in tomorrow and nothing changes for two more weeks. It’s almost like….is anyone even paying attention in the FO? At least that would be my thought as the other guys that made the trip. It’s certainly interesting to watch.
I would guess Merrifield is made available to the media tomorrow (if he isn't placed on the IL finally, don't forget he's hurt). But I think Dayton going on with Petro last week is what they did to address that. I wouldn't want them to force a trade just because of that. I'd rather it be uncomfortable for a week or two as long as it is actually addressed.
But like I've written a bit, I think all the other issues can be figured out in the clubhouse if they exist, but I'm not sure Merrifield's can.
Interesting numbers for sure. How optimistic are you that AB, WM, MAT, SB, JS, HD,0 ZG actually get traded the next two weeks. Do you think one of the young guys might get traded. Maybe you are planning on writing on this subject, if so just ignore my question. I will hold on to my thoughts till I see if you write on trade talk. Thanks as always, David.
So I saw some JJ comments about Grienke could possibly be traded. I’m just totally confused by that entire thing to be honest. I was probably under the wrong assumption that this was his last year before retirement and he was going to retire here. Now, all the sudden they ARE willing to move him if they can get something? Did he suddenly say get me outta here? The whole thing just seems odd. Why would he come back here if he wasn’t going to stay here? He would have gone to a winner. Seems odd to me.
My guess is the Royals said they'd only move him if he was okay with it and when they said that, they hadn't discussed it with him. After they discussed it, he probably said he's fine with it if they need to and get a good deal and that was that. I don't think it's that big of a deal.
I don’t think its a big deal either. Just interesting that he came back to KC at all over a contender to start the year if he is fine getting traded now. Or this year has been such a dumpster fire he’s just like get me on a winner.
I don't really think it's as deep as that honestly. He signed with the Royals because he wanted to be back in KC and now the Royals have approached him to say 'hey we might trade you' and he said sure. Like I said, maybe that's wrong, but it seems pretty likely.
Keller is the most interesting to me on this list. One one hand…..they genuinely NEED pitching….but on the other I do think they could get something pretty decent from him. But on a staff that is going terribly….though pill to swallow to then trade your second best starter. But also, I think the royals probably value him more than other teams. Yes, I think he is a good 4 or 5 and can eat up innings. There is a market for that. But how much a team will give up for a solid back end starter might not be as much as the Royals view worth it. But not having him resigned by now and I think next year is is last contracted year….also kinda tells me he wants to get to the FA market.
It's been out there for awhile that he wants to bet on himself. The thing about Keller that I think is underrated is that a team should believe he can be in their postseason bullpen and give them 97+ with that slider for an inning at a time if needed.
A very well thought out analysis David. Now, we wait to see: 1. How many of their draft picks the Royals will sign. 2. How transactional they will be up to the trade deadline. Both are very important to the future.
I'd guess they get 18 of the picks signed. I don't think you'll see many slip away.
And yeah, the second part is the biggest question for the future. I think they'll be more transactional than they have been but less than people want them to be.
What a great way to summarize the first half, with just a few numbers. Thank you for this, David!
I'm going to throw a question at you that I've posed to Alec Lewis half a dozen times this year, and he's always refused to answer. (I think I know why but that's a different topic.)
Regarding the pitching: in your view, is the PRIMARY problem with the pitching coaches and development people? Or is it mainly with the scouts and people in charge of the draft, for giving those folks little viable to work with?
I know that the standard answer is "it's a little bit of both." But I also know that in these situations it's almost always more of one thing than the other. Thus the word "primary" in my question.
I doubt he's refused to answer. He just doesn't get to every question that's asked.
The answer is a little of both, but my theory is it's more the big league coaching than the development. That's taken a hit this year with poor minor league performance, but in the past, the Royals have been generally fine in the minors. I always say the big league level is a finishing school and the Royals don't have the right instruction at the big league level to finish their development.
But they do need to be better at the minor league level as well. If they completely cleaned house with their pitching from top to bottom, I'd be fine with it.
I think you pretty spot on with what I'm thinking. Is somewhat concerned about the return because of the xax deal. I think the percentage on Barlow and Staumont might be up around 50 because everyone always wants relievers. Look forward to tomorrow.
I had read that the two way player, last name of Charles, was pretty committed to UC Santa Barbara. Isn't that team The Banana Slugs? I remember the shirt from Pulp Fiction.
Jayson Stark and Eno Sarris with a fascinating article at The Athletic today: why have ALL of baseball's "3 true outcomes" declined simultaneously this year? In particular it seems counterintuitive that both BB rates and K rates would decline at the same time, but that's exactly what has happened.
David, if you can find time to read that article I'd really love to know your thoughts on this topic!
Lots of stats you throw at us go over this old man's head but the one about the terrible umpiring struck a nerve. These guys have the job of calling a pitch correctly. I always blow a fuse when the tv announcers say " he didn't call that a strike because he's all over the place with his pitches"! So just compound his problem by not doing your job? B.S.
David, I think you are right about the Yankees still being interest in Andrew Benintendi. He may not be vaccinated, but if the Yanks offered him a multi year extension, I"m guessing he would reconsider. After watching the Astros take two from the Yankees today, it is clear to me the Astros are the best team in the AL, not the Yankees. Benintendi seems like the best option to fill the absence of hitting from RF Joey Gallo. Im guessing if the Yanks offered to extend Andrew for say 4 years at 100K, Andrew would drop his objection to the vaccination. The Astros have beat the Yanks in the playoffs 3 times in the past 5 or so years. The Yanks need to get better or it will happen again. Benintendi could be a part of the answer. They also need a starter and reliever.
Yep, they're not a perfect team. The problem is that Juan Soto is now going to cause a bit of a logjam. Any team who can afford him would obviously prefer him to Benintendi, so if the Yankees and Dodgers, for example, were in on Benny and now want Soto, the Royals are going to need to wait for that to shake out.
I’ve got a theory on the umpiring. I know it shouldn’t matter and the strike zone is the strike zone. But you know the royals have to have a reputation around the league as pitchers that walk a lot of people. Umpires usually know that as well. Couple that with being younger…only Grienke would have a higher reputation than the hitters they are facing. I think you see alot of call go the other way. One of those…if you were better…you’d get more kind of deals. But who knows…bring on the auto balls and strikes already.
One of my biggest fears is actually another big jump in winning percentage after the break. Maybe its just sales pitch from the front office but EVERY year its “they’ve played so much better after the break. We are on to something here.” Just stop with it already, a strong second half doesn’t make us in better position for next year. It would be nice to see a strong second half for the younger guys but also have the FO acknowledge through actions that it doesn’t mean it will translate to next year. It hasn’t in the last 5 years and won’t again next year without major overhauls.
Oh I think you're right on the umpiring. It's just crazy that they can't be consistent like at all.
The end of year jump is both concerning to me in a weird way and not. I think it's one thing when it's guys like Ryan O'Hearn who were never big prospects having a great second half like he did in 2018, but if the Royals start winning with Witt, Melendez, Pasquantino, Pratto, Massey, etc., then that's actually meaningful. I don't think they can win consistently with their pitching anyway, but they have already gone 19-19 in their last 38 anyway, so maybe I'm wrong.
Couldn't agree more. I've been saying for years that every September the Royals put up an impressive record against (mostly) minor league pitching, which gives the front office a plausible-ish sounding excuse for not doing what needs to be done in the off-season. While we can all hope things will be different this time around, I know of no reason to actually expect that.
The biggest reason is that the rosters don't expand to 40 anymore in September. Their September/October schedule includes 22 of 31 games against teams playing for something. If they play well in September, it'll be against good teams and big league pitchers.
Hadn't thought about that aspect of it before. Thanks for pointing that out. It could definitely mean a little more if they do well in those games this year. Maybe.
Well, if there is going to be redemption for this year, they need to move on from the past. We saw a glimmer of the future just before the All Star game. I hope we don't wait long before we see it again.
I'm hopeful, though not entirely optimistic, that at least a couple of those guys will be back in a couple of weeks after the deadline.
Some of it may get pushed by the "10" players themselves. Once play resumes, and the boo boys come out, they may ask to be traded. The star did a survey and almost 3/4s of the responders wanted at least some or most moved. That can't be lost on the players or management.
I don't think booing fans moves the needle all that much and I'm not sure it should. But I do think lost trust in the clubhouse does and I'm guessing that's why Merrifield gets traded.
I truly have no idea if they're actually going to try to move on from Whit/Dozier/MAT. Benintendi at least makes sense to trade, but when it comes to those other three I'm still conflicted on what I think they're actually going to do. On the one hand, we have a large sample to draw from of this FO just sitting on their hands to their own detriment, but on the other hand the whole PR fiasco that was the Toronto series feels more serious than the general fan unrest that's accompanied the season so far.
The answer we don't know yet is who is actually running point on the trade deadline. Dayton said in an interview with Petro the other day that it was JJ, but he also said that other teams were gaming the restricted list and I dug in and realized he was dead wrong on that. If JJ is actually running that show, we honestly don't know what he'll do. Maybe he's just like his boss, but maybe he isn't. From everything I've heard, they are in active talks regarding a lot of players. We'll see if it gets anywhere.
I’m still of the opinion they have to do something here to address Whit’s comments specifically and change the expectation in the clubhouse. If they wait until the trade deadline…….I guess. But if they all come in tomorrow and nothing changes for two more weeks. It’s almost like….is anyone even paying attention in the FO? At least that would be my thought as the other guys that made the trip. It’s certainly interesting to watch.
I would guess Merrifield is made available to the media tomorrow (if he isn't placed on the IL finally, don't forget he's hurt). But I think Dayton going on with Petro last week is what they did to address that. I wouldn't want them to force a trade just because of that. I'd rather it be uncomfortable for a week or two as long as it is actually addressed.
But like I've written a bit, I think all the other issues can be figured out in the clubhouse if they exist, but I'm not sure Merrifield's can.
Interesting numbers for sure. How optimistic are you that AB, WM, MAT, SB, JS, HD,0 ZG actually get traded the next two weeks. Do you think one of the young guys might get traded. Maybe you are planning on writing on this subject, if so just ignore my question. I will hold on to my thoughts till I see if you write on trade talk. Thanks as always, David.
I will get into that in tomorrow's mailbag, but I can pretty much promise you Benintendi gets moved. I also think Merrifield is going to go now.
As for the rest, and I'm going to include Brad Keller here too, here are my percentages:
Taylor - 50%
Barlow - 20%
Staumont - 10%
Dozier - 25%
Greinke - 15%
Keller - 30%
I think the rumors are going to kick up here in the next two or three days and hopefully I can get some information as well to give us a better idea.
So I saw some JJ comments about Grienke could possibly be traded. I’m just totally confused by that entire thing to be honest. I was probably under the wrong assumption that this was his last year before retirement and he was going to retire here. Now, all the sudden they ARE willing to move him if they can get something? Did he suddenly say get me outta here? The whole thing just seems odd. Why would he come back here if he wasn’t going to stay here? He would have gone to a winner. Seems odd to me.
My guess is the Royals said they'd only move him if he was okay with it and when they said that, they hadn't discussed it with him. After they discussed it, he probably said he's fine with it if they need to and get a good deal and that was that. I don't think it's that big of a deal.
I don’t think its a big deal either. Just interesting that he came back to KC at all over a contender to start the year if he is fine getting traded now. Or this year has been such a dumpster fire he’s just like get me on a winner.
I don't really think it's as deep as that honestly. He signed with the Royals because he wanted to be back in KC and now the Royals have approached him to say 'hey we might trade you' and he said sure. Like I said, maybe that's wrong, but it seems pretty likely.
Keller is the most interesting to me on this list. One one hand…..they genuinely NEED pitching….but on the other I do think they could get something pretty decent from him. But on a staff that is going terribly….though pill to swallow to then trade your second best starter. But also, I think the royals probably value him more than other teams. Yes, I think he is a good 4 or 5 and can eat up innings. There is a market for that. But how much a team will give up for a solid back end starter might not be as much as the Royals view worth it. But not having him resigned by now and I think next year is is last contracted year….also kinda tells me he wants to get to the FA market.
It's been out there for awhile that he wants to bet on himself. The thing about Keller that I think is underrated is that a team should believe he can be in their postseason bullpen and give them 97+ with that slider for an inning at a time if needed.
That sounds pretty Hochevar-ish to me. Although Keller, at least some of the time, has been considerably better as a starter than Luke ever was.
A very well thought out analysis David. Now, we wait to see: 1. How many of their draft picks the Royals will sign. 2. How transactional they will be up to the trade deadline. Both are very important to the future.
I'd guess they get 18 of the picks signed. I don't think you'll see many slip away.
And yeah, the second part is the biggest question for the future. I think they'll be more transactional than they have been but less than people want them to be.
What a great way to summarize the first half, with just a few numbers. Thank you for this, David!
I'm going to throw a question at you that I've posed to Alec Lewis half a dozen times this year, and he's always refused to answer. (I think I know why but that's a different topic.)
Regarding the pitching: in your view, is the PRIMARY problem with the pitching coaches and development people? Or is it mainly with the scouts and people in charge of the draft, for giving those folks little viable to work with?
I know that the standard answer is "it's a little bit of both." But I also know that in these situations it's almost always more of one thing than the other. Thus the word "primary" in my question.
Your thoughts on this would be much appreciated!
I doubt he's refused to answer. He just doesn't get to every question that's asked.
The answer is a little of both, but my theory is it's more the big league coaching than the development. That's taken a hit this year with poor minor league performance, but in the past, the Royals have been generally fine in the minors. I always say the big league level is a finishing school and the Royals don't have the right instruction at the big league level to finish their development.
But they do need to be better at the minor league level as well. If they completely cleaned house with their pitching from top to bottom, I'd be fine with it.
Thank you! That "finishing school" analogy is a great one. Clarifies some things for me, that's for sure!
Interesting stats for sure. Thanks, David.
I think you pretty spot on with what I'm thinking. Is somewhat concerned about the return because of the xax deal. I think the percentage on Barlow and Staumont might be up around 50 because everyone always wants relievers. Look forward to tomorrow.
I had read that the two way player, last name of Charles, was pretty committed to UC Santa Barbara. Isn't that team The Banana Slugs? I remember the shirt from Pulp Fiction.
I believe they’re the Gauchos. It was UC Santa Cruz in Pulp Fiction.
Yep, you are right.
😁 Finally! Now we're gettin' to the REALLY good stuff!
Jayson Stark and Eno Sarris with a fascinating article at The Athletic today: why have ALL of baseball's "3 true outcomes" declined simultaneously this year? In particular it seems counterintuitive that both BB rates and K rates would decline at the same time, but that's exactly what has happened.
David, if you can find time to read that article I'd really love to know your thoughts on this topic!
Haven't had a chance, but hope I can get to it today.
Lots of stats you throw at us go over this old man's head but the one about the terrible umpiring struck a nerve. These guys have the job of calling a pitch correctly. I always blow a fuse when the tv announcers say " he didn't call that a strike because he's all over the place with his pitches"! So just compound his problem by not doing your job? B.S.
David, I think you are right about the Yankees still being interest in Andrew Benintendi. He may not be vaccinated, but if the Yanks offered him a multi year extension, I"m guessing he would reconsider. After watching the Astros take two from the Yankees today, it is clear to me the Astros are the best team in the AL, not the Yankees. Benintendi seems like the best option to fill the absence of hitting from RF Joey Gallo. Im guessing if the Yanks offered to extend Andrew for say 4 years at 100K, Andrew would drop his objection to the vaccination. The Astros have beat the Yanks in the playoffs 3 times in the past 5 or so years. The Yanks need to get better or it will happen again. Benintendi could be a part of the answer. They also need a starter and reliever.
Yep, they're not a perfect team. The problem is that Juan Soto is now going to cause a bit of a logjam. Any team who can afford him would obviously prefer him to Benintendi, so if the Yankees and Dodgers, for example, were in on Benny and now want Soto, the Royals are going to need to wait for that to shake out.