Great article, thanks David! Along these lines, I read an NFL article a while back that convinced me that it is more important to have no negative spots (weak links) than it is to have a bunch of elite spots filled. This may be a little less true in baseball (because the other side cannot continue to just throw to your weak cornerback's spot for big gains every play, but I think there is some wisdom there.
Which brings me to agree with you that the Royals had four (or was if five?) below average hitters last year and that really hurts. The good news is the our Big 3 coming up can reasonably be expected to fill 3 of those 4 spots. Yay! When will the Royals ever again (or ever in the past did) had 3 such promising position players (all above average or better on defense as well!) com up to help fill 3 of our 4 below average spots! A wonderful solution, even though it may take most of 2022 for them to settle in, and even though one (hopefully only one) of them will turn into fool's gold for us.
Which brings me to point out an obvious failure in the Royal's system - especially with them being (rightfully or wrongfully) devoted to drafting so many "great athlete" guys who could be expected to successfully patrol CF, at least one of whom should have been an average hitter - big whiff! To the point where we have no obvious candidates at any level in our organization - and have to settle for an aging great defender who can't hit.
I know you recently gave me the example of Mookie Betts - a drafted infielder who ended up becoming an outfield superstar - and I would be very happy if the Royals had one of those. But who is it? Of all the Royals fixation to draft the "best available player" for a plethora (excess?) of SS/2B, since they are typically the "best players" on their teams, where is our Mookie Betts in there? And, if there is one, why have they not been converted to the outfield (especially CF, but corner outfield as well so we do not have to overpay Benny), and are now at AA or AAA now and ready/almost ready to go? It just seems like a massive failure by Dayton to draft all those "can't hit" outfielders, with all those "haven't successfully converted" infielders to the outfield. A massive miss in drafting and development. And one that led to this article, how we can hopefully be successful with an outside no hit CF, because we could not develop even one of those, which would still not be good enough. Our scouts and draft selection and development people need to properly prioritize drafting a pipeline of legitimate CF hitting/fielding prospects, be they current infielders or not, and get them up here.
I think the big issue with the Royals that should theoretically start showing improvement any minute now is the fact that their offensive development was a disaster for years and then they completely overhauled it. If you can't develop internally but you draft hitters who need development, you're destined to fail. Now they have a system in place that should be perfect for that, so if they maintain their strategy, they can find their way to actually churn one of these athletes into at least a league average bat.
The thing with baseball is there isn't instant gratification. An NFL team drafts a player and he's starting for them in game one and maybe even making an impact. A baseball team drafts a player and even the best are two years away from even getting to the big leagues and then the competition is so much better that a good chunk of them spend a year adjusting. So the Royals changed their development approach but the fact that things take longer in baseball and there was no 2020 minor league season means that we still haven't seen the fruits in the big leagues just yet. They're coming, though.
If you look in the system, I mentioned Loftin and Wilson the other day, but there are others. John Rave was drafted a few years ago and plays fantastic defense. It started to look like maybe the bat was clicking last year. We'll see. Brewer Hicklen may not be a starter, but he's a crazy athlete and hit .303/.420/.607 the last two months in AA. Clay Dungan could be a guy who shifts to the outfield (maybe in a utility role) who I'm interested to see this year. And now that Keoni DeRenne is with the big league staff, you might start to see some of those adjustments at the big league level too.
So my thought is that the drafts before the last couple years don't really factor into this conversation because the Royals saw what they were doing wrong, albeit WAY too late, and fixed it. So now we see if they can actually convert these athletes into legitimate big leaguers.
Great points! And to hit on 3 big ones already is a great sign. If they can add Seuly and one or two of the ones you mention to the list in having a breakout year in the minors this year, like the Big 3 did last year, they could, if all goes very well, move Taylor to a reserve role next year where he better belongs, be ready when we need someone better than an aging Whit in RF, and perhaps Isbel could hold the fort long enough (or even be one of our 3 outfield success stories?) to not overpay Benny to stick around. With the terrific young infield we expect to have, things could get very good.
I think you can argue that they already have hit on more. Vinnie Pasquantino was an afterthought and is now considered a legitimate prospect. Michael Massey had a big year. Loftin is going to shoot up prospect lists this season. Maikel Garcia got to a point where they added him to the 40-man. There's a lot of talent still in the system even after the big three graduate.
Thanks David - I think the problem for me with Taylor is this. He should be the last piece to a team. You get Taylor and resign him when the rest of your team is already in place and you can hide him with the bat. Taylor should not be a go get piece/resign piece on a .500 to sub .500 team that isn’t ready to compete yet. By the time the Royals are “ready” which seems to be getting pushed back every year…lol…….he may be gone. So while I’m sure the pitchers love the defense he helps them out with what exactly are we A.) Finding out about anyone else who might be able to play the position and B.) Solving here with him hitting in the middle of the lineup? I always remember Soren Petro saying “if not him, then who?” But in this case we actually can find out if Isbel or Mondesi can play the position. Taylor is a fine player….he provides something to a good team. I’m just not sure the Royals are there yet to actually utilize that value if that makes sense as wins between 70-80 don’t really mean anything besides entertainment over the summer. If the argument is we are a .500 team now and he will push us to 83 wins and in an actual race….ok. I’d argue that they aren’t a .500 team if Taylor is hitting 6th or 7th….but I’d understand the reasoning. Thanks for all the great work!
I get what you're saying, but think back to pre-2021. We were hopeful on the bats but they all had a brutal 2019. The entire system was pitching. This team was going to get back to prominence, if they were going to get back to prominence, because of the crazy number of young arms they have. There wasn't a center fielder in the entire organization. So they went out and got a guy to give that young pitching a legitimately great defender out there. Then they go through the 2021 season and they STILL don't have a center fielder. They might be closer, but they still don't. I think Isbel looked solid there in his limited action, but he's a stretch for 162 games. So they re-signed him. I thought the second year was unnecessary, but the deal was also one that likely won't stop them from putting him on the bench if someone emerges.
As for Mondesi, I don't think they want to play him in the outfield. I thought they would, but everything I've heard is that they'd like to keep him from those long runs that are often required in the outfield. I don't think Taylor is the guy they acquired to be a champion and they didn't pay him that way either, so it's sort of a big shrug from me. And if he can play great defense and get hidden at the bottom of the order, great. Maybe he is a championship piece. But again, you're always looking for an improvement but are fine with him while you're looking if those other pieces are in place.
I thought the Taylor signing at the time was a mistake, and I still think it is a mistake. We don't have enough hitting to cover the hole he leaves in a lineup. Maybe when when we know what the big 3 will provide you could withstand his weak bat. The big 3 will probably have some growing pains though. Thanks as always for great material David. By the way GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!
David, well thought out article. I agree with your points. MAT is a good fit for this Royals team but he needs to bat in the nine spot and he needs to get rest against power RHP. The Royals have no one else who can play 140 games in center for them considering Kaufman stadium. I think there are only two minor leaguers who can give them what MAT does and those are Dairon Blanco and John Rave. Bottom line is the Royals need to draft a couple of center fielders this summer to get some life in the pipeline at this position. I see the best OF prospects - Isbel, Olivares, Gentry, Matias, Bradley, Collins, Pena - as corner outfielders. I do wish to see Mondesi get some reps out in CF. If he could play 25 to 40 games out there (and 80 - 100 at 3b) I think it would be great to evaluate him. Clearly he has the tools to excel there, but as you said in the article the FO may fear his hamstrings wont hold up as an OF. My view is if he can't stay healthy then we need to move on from him anyway so at least we try and learn what the outcome is.
All I hope for MAT from an offensive standpoint is a slash line of .250/.300/.380 or better which should give him a wRC+ of 85 or higher. It is the rest of the team's job to be the better hitters so he can stay hitting in the nine hole. MAT leads the D and gets by at the plate until we can find our next Otis/Wilson/Beltran/Cain.
Great article, thanks David! Along these lines, I read an NFL article a while back that convinced me that it is more important to have no negative spots (weak links) than it is to have a bunch of elite spots filled. This may be a little less true in baseball (because the other side cannot continue to just throw to your weak cornerback's spot for big gains every play, but I think there is some wisdom there.
Which brings me to agree with you that the Royals had four (or was if five?) below average hitters last year and that really hurts. The good news is the our Big 3 coming up can reasonably be expected to fill 3 of those 4 spots. Yay! When will the Royals ever again (or ever in the past did) had 3 such promising position players (all above average or better on defense as well!) com up to help fill 3 of our 4 below average spots! A wonderful solution, even though it may take most of 2022 for them to settle in, and even though one (hopefully only one) of them will turn into fool's gold for us.
Which brings me to point out an obvious failure in the Royal's system - especially with them being (rightfully or wrongfully) devoted to drafting so many "great athlete" guys who could be expected to successfully patrol CF, at least one of whom should have been an average hitter - big whiff! To the point where we have no obvious candidates at any level in our organization - and have to settle for an aging great defender who can't hit.
I know you recently gave me the example of Mookie Betts - a drafted infielder who ended up becoming an outfield superstar - and I would be very happy if the Royals had one of those. But who is it? Of all the Royals fixation to draft the "best available player" for a plethora (excess?) of SS/2B, since they are typically the "best players" on their teams, where is our Mookie Betts in there? And, if there is one, why have they not been converted to the outfield (especially CF, but corner outfield as well so we do not have to overpay Benny), and are now at AA or AAA now and ready/almost ready to go? It just seems like a massive failure by Dayton to draft all those "can't hit" outfielders, with all those "haven't successfully converted" infielders to the outfield. A massive miss in drafting and development. And one that led to this article, how we can hopefully be successful with an outside no hit CF, because we could not develop even one of those, which would still not be good enough. Our scouts and draft selection and development people need to properly prioritize drafting a pipeline of legitimate CF hitting/fielding prospects, be they current infielders or not, and get them up here.
I think the big issue with the Royals that should theoretically start showing improvement any minute now is the fact that their offensive development was a disaster for years and then they completely overhauled it. If you can't develop internally but you draft hitters who need development, you're destined to fail. Now they have a system in place that should be perfect for that, so if they maintain their strategy, they can find their way to actually churn one of these athletes into at least a league average bat.
The thing with baseball is there isn't instant gratification. An NFL team drafts a player and he's starting for them in game one and maybe even making an impact. A baseball team drafts a player and even the best are two years away from even getting to the big leagues and then the competition is so much better that a good chunk of them spend a year adjusting. So the Royals changed their development approach but the fact that things take longer in baseball and there was no 2020 minor league season means that we still haven't seen the fruits in the big leagues just yet. They're coming, though.
If you look in the system, I mentioned Loftin and Wilson the other day, but there are others. John Rave was drafted a few years ago and plays fantastic defense. It started to look like maybe the bat was clicking last year. We'll see. Brewer Hicklen may not be a starter, but he's a crazy athlete and hit .303/.420/.607 the last two months in AA. Clay Dungan could be a guy who shifts to the outfield (maybe in a utility role) who I'm interested to see this year. And now that Keoni DeRenne is with the big league staff, you might start to see some of those adjustments at the big league level too.
So my thought is that the drafts before the last couple years don't really factor into this conversation because the Royals saw what they were doing wrong, albeit WAY too late, and fixed it. So now we see if they can actually convert these athletes into legitimate big leaguers.
Great points! And to hit on 3 big ones already is a great sign. If they can add Seuly and one or two of the ones you mention to the list in having a breakout year in the minors this year, like the Big 3 did last year, they could, if all goes very well, move Taylor to a reserve role next year where he better belongs, be ready when we need someone better than an aging Whit in RF, and perhaps Isbel could hold the fort long enough (or even be one of our 3 outfield success stories?) to not overpay Benny to stick around. With the terrific young infield we expect to have, things could get very good.
I think you can argue that they already have hit on more. Vinnie Pasquantino was an afterthought and is now considered a legitimate prospect. Michael Massey had a big year. Loftin is going to shoot up prospect lists this season. Maikel Garcia got to a point where they added him to the 40-man. There's a lot of talent still in the system even after the big three graduate.
Thanks David - I think the problem for me with Taylor is this. He should be the last piece to a team. You get Taylor and resign him when the rest of your team is already in place and you can hide him with the bat. Taylor should not be a go get piece/resign piece on a .500 to sub .500 team that isn’t ready to compete yet. By the time the Royals are “ready” which seems to be getting pushed back every year…lol…….he may be gone. So while I’m sure the pitchers love the defense he helps them out with what exactly are we A.) Finding out about anyone else who might be able to play the position and B.) Solving here with him hitting in the middle of the lineup? I always remember Soren Petro saying “if not him, then who?” But in this case we actually can find out if Isbel or Mondesi can play the position. Taylor is a fine player….he provides something to a good team. I’m just not sure the Royals are there yet to actually utilize that value if that makes sense as wins between 70-80 don’t really mean anything besides entertainment over the summer. If the argument is we are a .500 team now and he will push us to 83 wins and in an actual race….ok. I’d argue that they aren’t a .500 team if Taylor is hitting 6th or 7th….but I’d understand the reasoning. Thanks for all the great work!
I get what you're saying, but think back to pre-2021. We were hopeful on the bats but they all had a brutal 2019. The entire system was pitching. This team was going to get back to prominence, if they were going to get back to prominence, because of the crazy number of young arms they have. There wasn't a center fielder in the entire organization. So they went out and got a guy to give that young pitching a legitimately great defender out there. Then they go through the 2021 season and they STILL don't have a center fielder. They might be closer, but they still don't. I think Isbel looked solid there in his limited action, but he's a stretch for 162 games. So they re-signed him. I thought the second year was unnecessary, but the deal was also one that likely won't stop them from putting him on the bench if someone emerges.
As for Mondesi, I don't think they want to play him in the outfield. I thought they would, but everything I've heard is that they'd like to keep him from those long runs that are often required in the outfield. I don't think Taylor is the guy they acquired to be a champion and they didn't pay him that way either, so it's sort of a big shrug from me. And if he can play great defense and get hidden at the bottom of the order, great. Maybe he is a championship piece. But again, you're always looking for an improvement but are fine with him while you're looking if those other pieces are in place.
I thought the Taylor signing at the time was a mistake, and I still think it is a mistake. We don't have enough hitting to cover the hole he leaves in a lineup. Maybe when when we know what the big 3 will provide you could withstand his weak bat. The big 3 will probably have some growing pains though. Thanks as always for great material David. By the way GO CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!!!!
David, well thought out article. I agree with your points. MAT is a good fit for this Royals team but he needs to bat in the nine spot and he needs to get rest against power RHP. The Royals have no one else who can play 140 games in center for them considering Kaufman stadium. I think there are only two minor leaguers who can give them what MAT does and those are Dairon Blanco and John Rave. Bottom line is the Royals need to draft a couple of center fielders this summer to get some life in the pipeline at this position. I see the best OF prospects - Isbel, Olivares, Gentry, Matias, Bradley, Collins, Pena - as corner outfielders. I do wish to see Mondesi get some reps out in CF. If he could play 25 to 40 games out there (and 80 - 100 at 3b) I think it would be great to evaluate him. Clearly he has the tools to excel there, but as you said in the article the FO may fear his hamstrings wont hold up as an OF. My view is if he can't stay healthy then we need to move on from him anyway so at least we try and learn what the outcome is.
All I hope for MAT from an offensive standpoint is a slash line of .250/.300/.380 or better which should give him a wRC+ of 85 or higher. It is the rest of the team's job to be the better hitters so he can stay hitting in the nine hole. MAT leads the D and gets by at the plate until we can find our next Otis/Wilson/Beltran/Cain.