I'm still an Isbel skeptic. I agree, he doesn't need to be the best hitter on the team. But he'll have to make up for that with value in other places (like defense) otherwise he's just a guy. Royals need contributors more than they need cost savings of a JAG at this point in time.
To me, the best part of this story is the insight into the improved hitting coaching. That's some really impressive work.
I think it's fair to be skeptical. He looked lost in his first tiny sample and then looked like he could be a part of legitimate lineup depth in his second tiny sample. There's just not enough there. One thing I didn't write and honestly didn't think about until now is that he's had a weird development path that's partially not his fault. A freak injury in 2019 derailed that year and then he lost game action in 2020.
This next year is huge for him, both because the Royals need to figure out what they truly need moving forward to be a playoff team in 2023 and beyond and because he's now had one "normal" year to get back on his feet in the development game.
Your article reminded me of a bizarre week near the end of last spring training in which, if I remember correctly, Dayton elated us all by saying that the door was open for Bobby Witt to start on Opening Day, and then, not long after, the news showed that he would not (even though I do not remember a breathtaking slump during that short time).
Which is more important at this point - to give Mondi every chance to get and stay healthy and reach his everyday potential - or to better see what we have in Isbel? I would argue Mondi is far more important - because him at his dreamed about best would be far more valuable to the Royals that finding out if Isbel can become an average or slightly above average corner outfielder - though there is also value in finding that out, as it could help us decide if he would be good enough (even though not as good as) Benny - in which case we could trade Benny at the deadline - or at least not waste an expensive extension on him.
Why is this important? Because, to me, giving Mondi every chance means moving Whit to RF so that Isbel will get only infrequent backup outfielder play - maybe not enough to better show us what he can do. But, to me, allowing Mondi every reasonable chance to become Reliable Superstar Mondi is worth is.
While the Royals would absolutely love to have top of the line Mondesi figure things out, the problem with that is that he'll now be in his second to last year before free agency. So let's say he does figure it all out. They've now got two years of Mondesi before he hits free agency which means they can either ride it out and enjoy the two years or extend him, but you probably have to extend him during this season because most guys aren't going to sign a deal heading into their last year before free agency coming off their best season when healthy. So they get to a deal at, let's say, the All-Star break. How do you pay a guy with superstar talent who has now provided glimpses. That's still not even a full season of quality play that he's EVER provided. And if you can't extend him, don't you trade him rather than lose him for nothing (or whatever is negotiated in the CBA)?
This is why it's so complicated for the Royals with Mondesi. They're paying huge now for their massive mistake of bringing him up so early and wasting that service time when he wasn't close to ready for the big leagues. I agree that for the Royals, a great Mondesi and Whit in RF is better than Whit at second and Isbel in RF, but the question is how much better is it for the long-term? I don't know what the answer is, truthfully. It's not exactly simple if you're looking at it from the big picture and not just the tiny window of 2022 and to a lesser extent 2023.
Yes, a thorny issue but so important. Thankfully, the next wave of talent (absent changes to the new CBA) will not need to be paid for awhile, so there should be funds (including funds earned now and reserved) to not lose a possible superstar like Mondesi. He seems to be far different than a Bubba Starling who just could not be a good hitter. Each team gets so few chances at reliable superstars (though we can possible have more, to match the White Sox, with Witt, MJ and Pratto), I just hope that we give ourselves every chance to find out, and to keep him if he is, even if it costs more because we foolishly brought him up too early.
But again, the problem with it costing more is you could end up with a situation where you're paying a guy superstar money to either play 75 games, be below average or both because there simply isn't enough time to actually determine if there's actually been a corner turned, to borrow a phrase from the Luke Hochevar years.
I'm not saying you don't look to keep him around for a long time, but the reality is that there's literally no way to know you made a remotely sound investment in him if you do give him that deal. Which is why I don't think it's a slam dunk that giving him the reps is better than Isbel.
One thing that you pointed out was the Isbel doesn’t have to be a star. People seem to really be on either end with Isbel. Maybe not superstar end but fairly high or fairly low. An average player that is young and cost controlled is valuable. I’d rather Isbel play than re-sign Benitendi and use that money on more pitching to supplement the young pitchers. The Braves proved you can find hitters during the season this year to supplement a lineup. Much costlier to find pitchers mid-season it feels like.
Guys, I will stay on the trade Mondesi band wagon until the end. If he starts well then you look to move him. If he doesn’t then you keep him for depth. I don’t think he is resigning with the Royals. Love the potential…..but sometimes a change of scenery is best for everyone to nobody’s fault. Yes, the royals screwed up his development. No question…..but Mondesi hasn’t helped himself any either.
You're absolutely right about the Braves, though I would argue they're sort of the anomaly. And the biggest thing with them is that they weren't trying to add a star to their lineup, they needed to supplement their stars. Having Freeman, Riley and to a lesser extend Albies already in there helps quite a bit. Imagine if they had Acuña too. Wow. Anyway, yes, that's dead on about adding bats. Much easier and cheaper than arms as long as they're supplemental bats.
And I agree too that Mondesi's to blame as well. We'll see what happens this year with a different training regimen (though I don't know the status there since he can't work out with anyone from the team), but as I said to Steve, it's gotten to a point that they can't make a truly informed decision because of the time constraints here. I'd love for Mondesi to become Jimmy Rollins or Francisco Lindor or whoever and be a star for the Royals, but it's just hard to see it at this point. The time to extend was before last season probably and unless he'll take a lowball deal now (which he might), it's hard to see them finding a good middle ground.
I'm a fan of Isbel and one reason I'd be be skeptical of giving Benny an extension. If you think Isbel can be similar or at least close to the player is you either trade Benny at deadline or let him walk.
Totally agree with that. I said it sometime in the last couple weeks that if they're similar players, go with the one who is much more affordable and find a bopper for the other corner. Now, if Isbel can actually play center that changes things a bit.
Hey David - Read your article on RR today. Got me thinking about CF defensively. Maybe you can do an article on it in some form or fashion. Royals signed Michael A Tayler….for the defense. That isn’t changing….so I get that. I’m going more on the thought process that the Royals LOVE defense in center so much more than any other team that they essentially over value it. It drives me crazy. I understand its importance in Kaufman but if you can’t hit league average….you negate all the extra value you bring on defense. Everyone wants to go back to Cain and his defense and he was great. But people forget that he was great because of the offense he provided on top of the gold glove defense. Using your stats since 2017 the royals have had 3 of the top 6 centerfielders……has topped them out at 72 wins last year. I understand that you can’t have a bumbling fool out there in center but its not the worst thing in the world to have a slightly above average hitting center fielder even if the runs saved metrics are just so-so. I’m not saying you can have Billy Butler in center…I’m just saying Benitendi could play center just fine if hits like the end of last year. I’m not so sure center leans towards the Royals thinking on this topic. But a fun discussion.
I think there's some middle ground there. Taylor was still worth two wins above replacement according to Fangraphs because of his defense. The issue is that you can't surround his bat with more bats like him. Look at the Astros and Martin Maldonado. He hit .172/.272/.300 in 426 plate appearances and their offense was the best in the American League. Now, Taylor isn't anywhere near that bad with the bat, but the point is if you're going to look at defense first, you have to surround that bad bat with better bats.
It was actually one of the first articles I wrote here about how the Royals should lean less on their ballpark and strive to be more of a strikeout pitching staff because it allows them to skimp defensively in some places. They need a guy who can go get it in center and I'll disagree that Benintendi would be okay there, at least in Kauffman and Comerica where they play 92 of their 162 games, but maybe Isbel is that guy. If your staff is giving up less contact, you don't need an 80 defender out there. You'd be in trouble if you had a 40 defender in center, but maybe you can get by with a 55 in that instance.
Time and a place to emphasis defense I agree. The royals just seem to emphasis it even when they know they don’t have a lengthy lineup yet or are going to be .500. My argument on Benintendi would be this. If you are considered the best defensive left fielder in the American League (Gold glove)….which I didn’t see on the eye test but he had good metrics…..they surely you’d be average moving over 150 feet to your left playing center. The drop off can’t be that much for a top defender in left field. But its a fun argument to have! Thanks!
Just to play devil's advocate, maybe he was so good in left because he had Taylor to his left to help quite a bit. I just don't think he's fast enough to cover the ground needed in a big park, but I also am certainly not for sure right on that. He might very well be able to handle it. On the flip side, the Royals young player strength before the big three emerged was young pitching. I can see an argument for a great defense at the expense of some offense to help develop that. But long-term, they might have to pick and choose.
I'm still an Isbel skeptic. I agree, he doesn't need to be the best hitter on the team. But he'll have to make up for that with value in other places (like defense) otherwise he's just a guy. Royals need contributors more than they need cost savings of a JAG at this point in time.
To me, the best part of this story is the insight into the improved hitting coaching. That's some really impressive work.
I think it's fair to be skeptical. He looked lost in his first tiny sample and then looked like he could be a part of legitimate lineup depth in his second tiny sample. There's just not enough there. One thing I didn't write and honestly didn't think about until now is that he's had a weird development path that's partially not his fault. A freak injury in 2019 derailed that year and then he lost game action in 2020.
This next year is huge for him, both because the Royals need to figure out what they truly need moving forward to be a playoff team in 2023 and beyond and because he's now had one "normal" year to get back on his feet in the development game.
Your article reminded me of a bizarre week near the end of last spring training in which, if I remember correctly, Dayton elated us all by saying that the door was open for Bobby Witt to start on Opening Day, and then, not long after, the news showed that he would not (even though I do not remember a breathtaking slump during that short time).
Which is more important at this point - to give Mondi every chance to get and stay healthy and reach his everyday potential - or to better see what we have in Isbel? I would argue Mondi is far more important - because him at his dreamed about best would be far more valuable to the Royals that finding out if Isbel can become an average or slightly above average corner outfielder - though there is also value in finding that out, as it could help us decide if he would be good enough (even though not as good as) Benny - in which case we could trade Benny at the deadline - or at least not waste an expensive extension on him.
Why is this important? Because, to me, giving Mondi every chance means moving Whit to RF so that Isbel will get only infrequent backup outfielder play - maybe not enough to better show us what he can do. But, to me, allowing Mondi every reasonable chance to become Reliable Superstar Mondi is worth is.
While the Royals would absolutely love to have top of the line Mondesi figure things out, the problem with that is that he'll now be in his second to last year before free agency. So let's say he does figure it all out. They've now got two years of Mondesi before he hits free agency which means they can either ride it out and enjoy the two years or extend him, but you probably have to extend him during this season because most guys aren't going to sign a deal heading into their last year before free agency coming off their best season when healthy. So they get to a deal at, let's say, the All-Star break. How do you pay a guy with superstar talent who has now provided glimpses. That's still not even a full season of quality play that he's EVER provided. And if you can't extend him, don't you trade him rather than lose him for nothing (or whatever is negotiated in the CBA)?
This is why it's so complicated for the Royals with Mondesi. They're paying huge now for their massive mistake of bringing him up so early and wasting that service time when he wasn't close to ready for the big leagues. I agree that for the Royals, a great Mondesi and Whit in RF is better than Whit at second and Isbel in RF, but the question is how much better is it for the long-term? I don't know what the answer is, truthfully. It's not exactly simple if you're looking at it from the big picture and not just the tiny window of 2022 and to a lesser extent 2023.
Yes, a thorny issue but so important. Thankfully, the next wave of talent (absent changes to the new CBA) will not need to be paid for awhile, so there should be funds (including funds earned now and reserved) to not lose a possible superstar like Mondesi. He seems to be far different than a Bubba Starling who just could not be a good hitter. Each team gets so few chances at reliable superstars (though we can possible have more, to match the White Sox, with Witt, MJ and Pratto), I just hope that we give ourselves every chance to find out, and to keep him if he is, even if it costs more because we foolishly brought him up too early.
But again, the problem with it costing more is you could end up with a situation where you're paying a guy superstar money to either play 75 games, be below average or both because there simply isn't enough time to actually determine if there's actually been a corner turned, to borrow a phrase from the Luke Hochevar years.
I'm not saying you don't look to keep him around for a long time, but the reality is that there's literally no way to know you made a remotely sound investment in him if you do give him that deal. Which is why I don't think it's a slam dunk that giving him the reps is better than Isbel.
One thing that you pointed out was the Isbel doesn’t have to be a star. People seem to really be on either end with Isbel. Maybe not superstar end but fairly high or fairly low. An average player that is young and cost controlled is valuable. I’d rather Isbel play than re-sign Benitendi and use that money on more pitching to supplement the young pitchers. The Braves proved you can find hitters during the season this year to supplement a lineup. Much costlier to find pitchers mid-season it feels like.
Guys, I will stay on the trade Mondesi band wagon until the end. If he starts well then you look to move him. If he doesn’t then you keep him for depth. I don’t think he is resigning with the Royals. Love the potential…..but sometimes a change of scenery is best for everyone to nobody’s fault. Yes, the royals screwed up his development. No question…..but Mondesi hasn’t helped himself any either.
You're absolutely right about the Braves, though I would argue they're sort of the anomaly. And the biggest thing with them is that they weren't trying to add a star to their lineup, they needed to supplement their stars. Having Freeman, Riley and to a lesser extend Albies already in there helps quite a bit. Imagine if they had Acuña too. Wow. Anyway, yes, that's dead on about adding bats. Much easier and cheaper than arms as long as they're supplemental bats.
And I agree too that Mondesi's to blame as well. We'll see what happens this year with a different training regimen (though I don't know the status there since he can't work out with anyone from the team), but as I said to Steve, it's gotten to a point that they can't make a truly informed decision because of the time constraints here. I'd love for Mondesi to become Jimmy Rollins or Francisco Lindor or whoever and be a star for the Royals, but it's just hard to see it at this point. The time to extend was before last season probably and unless he'll take a lowball deal now (which he might), it's hard to see them finding a good middle ground.
When I watch Kyle Isbel, I see Jason Kipnis.
Oh that's interesting. But that also makes me think of the idiotic Kipnis/Butler "discourse" on Twitter, so I don't love it.
I'm a fan of Isbel and one reason I'd be be skeptical of giving Benny an extension. If you think Isbel can be similar or at least close to the player is you either trade Benny at deadline or let him walk.
Totally agree with that. I said it sometime in the last couple weeks that if they're similar players, go with the one who is much more affordable and find a bopper for the other corner. Now, if Isbel can actually play center that changes things a bit.
Hey David - Read your article on RR today. Got me thinking about CF defensively. Maybe you can do an article on it in some form or fashion. Royals signed Michael A Tayler….for the defense. That isn’t changing….so I get that. I’m going more on the thought process that the Royals LOVE defense in center so much more than any other team that they essentially over value it. It drives me crazy. I understand its importance in Kaufman but if you can’t hit league average….you negate all the extra value you bring on defense. Everyone wants to go back to Cain and his defense and he was great. But people forget that he was great because of the offense he provided on top of the gold glove defense. Using your stats since 2017 the royals have had 3 of the top 6 centerfielders……has topped them out at 72 wins last year. I understand that you can’t have a bumbling fool out there in center but its not the worst thing in the world to have a slightly above average hitting center fielder even if the runs saved metrics are just so-so. I’m not saying you can have Billy Butler in center…I’m just saying Benitendi could play center just fine if hits like the end of last year. I’m not so sure center leans towards the Royals thinking on this topic. But a fun discussion.
I think there's some middle ground there. Taylor was still worth two wins above replacement according to Fangraphs because of his defense. The issue is that you can't surround his bat with more bats like him. Look at the Astros and Martin Maldonado. He hit .172/.272/.300 in 426 plate appearances and their offense was the best in the American League. Now, Taylor isn't anywhere near that bad with the bat, but the point is if you're going to look at defense first, you have to surround that bad bat with better bats.
It was actually one of the first articles I wrote here about how the Royals should lean less on their ballpark and strive to be more of a strikeout pitching staff because it allows them to skimp defensively in some places. They need a guy who can go get it in center and I'll disagree that Benintendi would be okay there, at least in Kauffman and Comerica where they play 92 of their 162 games, but maybe Isbel is that guy. If your staff is giving up less contact, you don't need an 80 defender out there. You'd be in trouble if you had a 40 defender in center, but maybe you can get by with a 55 in that instance.
Time and a place to emphasis defense I agree. The royals just seem to emphasis it even when they know they don’t have a lengthy lineup yet or are going to be .500. My argument on Benintendi would be this. If you are considered the best defensive left fielder in the American League (Gold glove)….which I didn’t see on the eye test but he had good metrics…..they surely you’d be average moving over 150 feet to your left playing center. The drop off can’t be that much for a top defender in left field. But its a fun argument to have! Thanks!
Just to play devil's advocate, maybe he was so good in left because he had Taylor to his left to help quite a bit. I just don't think he's fast enough to cover the ground needed in a big park, but I also am certainly not for sure right on that. He might very well be able to handle it. On the flip side, the Royals young player strength before the big three emerged was young pitching. I can see an argument for a great defense at the expense of some offense to help develop that. But long-term, they might have to pick and choose.
I really like Isbel. I believe Isbell = Beni ntendi.