My opinions for the uncaring universe to disregard:
Nick Pratto has too much swing and miss.
Isbel seems to have a decent idea of the zone but he got killed taking two strike inside fastballs that caught the inside corner. A better two strike approach would help. Not sure whether he's fixed that or not.
Bobby Witt seems like what you dream of, super athletic ability and more importantly the drive to be the best. One of the best chances for the Royals offense to be significantly better is Bobby turning in a huge season. More walks, tons of XBH. 40-50 steals...
Bubic- the slider looked very good the other day. Mixed feelings on starter/reliever. If he adds an effective slider, sure seems that along with a good change up, he can be an effective SP, but absolutely we've seen that added mph to his fastball increases its effectiveness a LOT.
Great story with CJ Alexander, George Brett talking him up on the broadcast and then him later crushing a HR. Reality.... he's 26 years old, hasn't progressed past AA, and while he did show some power last year, still had an overall OPS of less than .800, in part due to low walk rates. Until last year, he hadnt shown much power. Unless he turns in a big season at Omaha and or NWA this year, let's just say I have my reservations, beautiful swing or not.
Massey- I really like his swing. Definitely a make or break season. Comparison to Jason Kipnis if his career pans out, with likely a lower walk rate but hopefully more ISO.
No reason to disregard! I agree with most of what you're saying. Alexander is sort of a fun story, but yeah, I don't think there's any reason to expect much, but I also think there's value in a cheap corner guy if he can figure *something* out, though on this particular roster, I don't see where it really works, but, again, fun story.
Where I will sort of disagree is on Pratto and the swing and miss. He does do it too much, but it's also not as much as most believe. His swinging strike rate was 14.7% last year. That's in the range of JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, Julio Rodriguez, Eloy Jimenez and some other quality, successful hitters. Which sort of makes the point that it's not too high to succeed. The issue for Pratto is the whiff rate with two strikes, which is a situation he gets himself into with passivity. He swung and missed 33.8 percent of the time on two-strike swings last season. What I don't know and could dig into (and might!) is how much of that is pitches he shouldn't be swinging at and how much of that is that he maybe gets into those counts and finds himself unable to even hit a strike. So I don't think he actually swings and misses too much, but I wonder if his two-strike approach is the bigger issue.
But I will say that if we're talking about swinging strike rate, another guy right around Pratto is Massey. I'm a big fan too, but if you're worried about the swing and miss with Pratto, Massey should be a worry as well. By the way, he whiffs at 26 percent of two-strike pitches, which is only a bit above the league average of 24.6 percent. I guess my point is that while I'm certainly not sold on Pratto, he can be successful because of his approach, but he might need to make some changes to get there.
Those are some really interesting numbers on Pratto. It means that basically without two strikes on him he both takes a ton of pitches, and doesn't miss many when he does swing. My overall opinion hasnt changed. He's an extremely selective hitter, so that part is great, but that partially covers up his swing and miss problems that get exposed with two strikes. He just doesnt swing at pitches he can't hit until he has 2 strikes. Idk. Haven't given up on him. As far as Massey, yeah he showed some promise last year but the overall numbers don't scream can't miss success like Vinnie. Always interesting to see the numbers that either confirm or destroy my eyeball bias. Both are guys with some obvious talent and weaknesses, and we wont know until we know. Thanks!
Well I should say that swinging strike percentage and whiff percentage are two different things. He does swing and miss when he swings earlier in counts too. I just wonder if there's a way he can be a little more aggressive without losing his discipline.
Massey is absolutely no guarantee either, but I am a big fan.
It’s great to hear the scouts’ opinions, both positive and negative. Thanks for sharing. It’s easy for us for form our own but hearing more objective analysis helps to filter out bias (both positive and negative!)
You're absolutely right. I think there's some bias that goes into evaluating something you see every single day, whether we want to or not. And some of that is on the basis of what used to be reality. For example, a 20 percent strikeout rate for a hitter used to be considered terrible. In 1990, 16 qualified hitters struck out 20 percent of the time. Last year, it was 61. Things change and it's so easy to get caught in an old mindset to think this is bad or that's bad.
That isn't really related to opinions from a scout, but more just to remind everyone how easy it is to form an opinion that's not based nearly enough in the reality of the moment. I keep thinking he's being way too positive, but also I'm not sure how many negative things you can say about a team that's 14-2 and winning generally very convincingly most days. I actually really liked, for example, that Lynch struggled yesterday because it gave him (and all of us) a chance to see what he looked like in that situation.
I like what I'm seeing and hearing about the Royals...and then the experts chime in and throw cold water on my hopes and dreams. I do trust those folks, of course, to know MUCH MORE than I do about KC and the rest of the league. I'll keep hoping Dozier is an all-star third baseman this year...Chapman is the Rolaids Fireman of the Year...and Bobby is the A.L. MVP...and KC makes it to the the ALCS. When is the last time you saw "Rolaids Fireman of the Year"? :)
I think people are pretty well tied (and generally rightfully so) to the idea that a belief you had on February 13th shouldn't be too different from what you believe on March 13th. I would say there's more wiggle room than some believe and less than others believe.
All I really know is that I spell relief R-O-L-A-I-D-S.
I think that baseball must be the reason that "spring" is smack dab in the middle of the phrase "hope springs eternal." I would never question the validity of your observations and I almost always agree with them. However there's this voice in my head that keeps saying "yeah, but..." every time you make another point.
That probably comes from being old enough to remember listening to their very first game on the radio in 1969, and all of the disappointment, with brief exceptions, that has ensued since then.
I genuinely hope that you're right about this "new approach" stuff. I'm just not quite ready to drink that Kool-Aid yet. I really hope to be proven wrong!
I think the fact that the changes jive with what we saw in the minors with this coaching staff and what they've talked about so much is what makes me optimistic about it. When a team sets out to do something and then they do something, it's pretty easy to take notice. It's similar to the pitchers throwing more strikes. They talk about throwing more strikes. They've thrown more strikes. That adds up to me.
I think I may have mentioned this but I do like hearing what you are hearing from scouts both good and bad. As you mentioned, one of the hards parts this time of year is that I probably won’t catch and spring games. So I don’t get to see for myself until the season starts. And in March….everyone is talking up everyone it seems like. So hearing Heasley has looked awful, Lynch has been ehhh, and Bubic looks great but thought is he is a reliever now in his mind is very interesting to me. Hearing that side of it has me believing the positive side more on these other guys. I know you probably hear that all the time but it isn’t helpful to the story. But its interesting to hear in March when not everyone can get eyes on the games.
I will say that Lynch hasn't been eh. He didn't have great stuff yesterday, but he's looked good otherwise. Still, finding negative in a 14-2 spring with the vast majority of the roster looking great can be tough and I think sometimes even scouts are looking for anything to bring some balance to opinions.
Yeah, I can see it being somewhat of a double edged sword when spring goes this well. As a scout, when everything you see if good…..and then if the Royals start the season 4-12 or something and then people go “dude, what the heck”….but at the time…that’s what you saw. Lol.
What I like about talking to this particular scout is he saw a lot of the Royals last year too, so there's a nice comparison to make. Of course, when they're playing this well, it might make them look even better.
I’ve been a Royals fan since 1972 and I’ve watched them have great springs only to roll over and die when the season started. Something feels different this year. They’re putting runs up early and if the other team gets ahead they pound back. I’ve been a Bubic fan for a while. Of all the pitchers who will benefit from aiming for the heart of the plate and letting natural movement take it from there, it’s him. I also have a soft spot for dozier, I really hope he gets it together. He just reminds me of a working class kinda player. Regardless of who makes this team and what their role is, I’ll be watching. I’m a Royals fan living in Yankee country and I can’t wait for a 2015 repeat. I love my boys!
I honestly don't know if it feels different or not because I wonder if it feels different every year, but 14-2 with a +54 run differential is very different than even 18-11 with a +40 run differential like they had in 2019.
Thanks for your opinion! Disappointed in Cuas and his pergola. Maybe he was a one year wonder. Same with Heasley. Maybe time will improve. Singer did not throw well in the WBC. that could be lack of spring trading. Watching Bobby hit for team USA, he seemed to be waiting and the ball getting deeper in the zone. Going to center and right, witch is good to see. Don't know about you, but I'm excited!
To be honest, I'm not sure Cuas or Heasley were good enough to be one year wonders, but they both absolutely can be more than depth pieces. I wouldn't worry too much about Singer. He had a bad inning. It happens. It looked like his mechanics were a bit out of whack, which you'd hope could get fixed quickly with coaches who know him.
I thought Witt looked good on that swing too. Kind of what he seemed like he was doing in Surprise before heading off.
My opinions for the uncaring universe to disregard:
Nick Pratto has too much swing and miss.
Isbel seems to have a decent idea of the zone but he got killed taking two strike inside fastballs that caught the inside corner. A better two strike approach would help. Not sure whether he's fixed that or not.
Bobby Witt seems like what you dream of, super athletic ability and more importantly the drive to be the best. One of the best chances for the Royals offense to be significantly better is Bobby turning in a huge season. More walks, tons of XBH. 40-50 steals...
Bubic- the slider looked very good the other day. Mixed feelings on starter/reliever. If he adds an effective slider, sure seems that along with a good change up, he can be an effective SP, but absolutely we've seen that added mph to his fastball increases its effectiveness a LOT.
Great story with CJ Alexander, George Brett talking him up on the broadcast and then him later crushing a HR. Reality.... he's 26 years old, hasn't progressed past AA, and while he did show some power last year, still had an overall OPS of less than .800, in part due to low walk rates. Until last year, he hadnt shown much power. Unless he turns in a big season at Omaha and or NWA this year, let's just say I have my reservations, beautiful swing or not.
Massey- I really like his swing. Definitely a make or break season. Comparison to Jason Kipnis if his career pans out, with likely a lower walk rate but hopefully more ISO.
No reason to disregard! I agree with most of what you're saying. Alexander is sort of a fun story, but yeah, I don't think there's any reason to expect much, but I also think there's value in a cheap corner guy if he can figure *something* out, though on this particular roster, I don't see where it really works, but, again, fun story.
Where I will sort of disagree is on Pratto and the swing and miss. He does do it too much, but it's also not as much as most believe. His swinging strike rate was 14.7% last year. That's in the range of JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, Julio Rodriguez, Eloy Jimenez and some other quality, successful hitters. Which sort of makes the point that it's not too high to succeed. The issue for Pratto is the whiff rate with two strikes, which is a situation he gets himself into with passivity. He swung and missed 33.8 percent of the time on two-strike swings last season. What I don't know and could dig into (and might!) is how much of that is pitches he shouldn't be swinging at and how much of that is that he maybe gets into those counts and finds himself unable to even hit a strike. So I don't think he actually swings and misses too much, but I wonder if his two-strike approach is the bigger issue.
But I will say that if we're talking about swinging strike rate, another guy right around Pratto is Massey. I'm a big fan too, but if you're worried about the swing and miss with Pratto, Massey should be a worry as well. By the way, he whiffs at 26 percent of two-strike pitches, which is only a bit above the league average of 24.6 percent. I guess my point is that while I'm certainly not sold on Pratto, he can be successful because of his approach, but he might need to make some changes to get there.
Those are some really interesting numbers on Pratto. It means that basically without two strikes on him he both takes a ton of pitches, and doesn't miss many when he does swing. My overall opinion hasnt changed. He's an extremely selective hitter, so that part is great, but that partially covers up his swing and miss problems that get exposed with two strikes. He just doesnt swing at pitches he can't hit until he has 2 strikes. Idk. Haven't given up on him. As far as Massey, yeah he showed some promise last year but the overall numbers don't scream can't miss success like Vinnie. Always interesting to see the numbers that either confirm or destroy my eyeball bias. Both are guys with some obvious talent and weaknesses, and we wont know until we know. Thanks!
Well I should say that swinging strike percentage and whiff percentage are two different things. He does swing and miss when he swings earlier in counts too. I just wonder if there's a way he can be a little more aggressive without losing his discipline.
Massey is absolutely no guarantee either, but I am a big fan.
It’s great to hear the scouts’ opinions, both positive and negative. Thanks for sharing. It’s easy for us for form our own but hearing more objective analysis helps to filter out bias (both positive and negative!)
You're absolutely right. I think there's some bias that goes into evaluating something you see every single day, whether we want to or not. And some of that is on the basis of what used to be reality. For example, a 20 percent strikeout rate for a hitter used to be considered terrible. In 1990, 16 qualified hitters struck out 20 percent of the time. Last year, it was 61. Things change and it's so easy to get caught in an old mindset to think this is bad or that's bad.
That isn't really related to opinions from a scout, but more just to remind everyone how easy it is to form an opinion that's not based nearly enough in the reality of the moment. I keep thinking he's being way too positive, but also I'm not sure how many negative things you can say about a team that's 14-2 and winning generally very convincingly most days. I actually really liked, for example, that Lynch struggled yesterday because it gave him (and all of us) a chance to see what he looked like in that situation.
I like what I'm seeing and hearing about the Royals...and then the experts chime in and throw cold water on my hopes and dreams. I do trust those folks, of course, to know MUCH MORE than I do about KC and the rest of the league. I'll keep hoping Dozier is an all-star third baseman this year...Chapman is the Rolaids Fireman of the Year...and Bobby is the A.L. MVP...and KC makes it to the the ALCS. When is the last time you saw "Rolaids Fireman of the Year"? :)
I think people are pretty well tied (and generally rightfully so) to the idea that a belief you had on February 13th shouldn't be too different from what you believe on March 13th. I would say there's more wiggle room than some believe and less than others believe.
All I really know is that I spell relief R-O-L-A-I-D-S.
Huh...I always figured you as a Tums man.
We actually are a Tums family here.
I think that baseball must be the reason that "spring" is smack dab in the middle of the phrase "hope springs eternal." I would never question the validity of your observations and I almost always agree with them. However there's this voice in my head that keeps saying "yeah, but..." every time you make another point.
That probably comes from being old enough to remember listening to their very first game on the radio in 1969, and all of the disappointment, with brief exceptions, that has ensued since then.
I genuinely hope that you're right about this "new approach" stuff. I'm just not quite ready to drink that Kool-Aid yet. I really hope to be proven wrong!
I think the fact that the changes jive with what we saw in the minors with this coaching staff and what they've talked about so much is what makes me optimistic about it. When a team sets out to do something and then they do something, it's pretty easy to take notice. It's similar to the pitchers throwing more strikes. They talk about throwing more strikes. They've thrown more strikes. That adds up to me.
I think I may have mentioned this but I do like hearing what you are hearing from scouts both good and bad. As you mentioned, one of the hards parts this time of year is that I probably won’t catch and spring games. So I don’t get to see for myself until the season starts. And in March….everyone is talking up everyone it seems like. So hearing Heasley has looked awful, Lynch has been ehhh, and Bubic looks great but thought is he is a reliever now in his mind is very interesting to me. Hearing that side of it has me believing the positive side more on these other guys. I know you probably hear that all the time but it isn’t helpful to the story. But its interesting to hear in March when not everyone can get eyes on the games.
I will say that Lynch hasn't been eh. He didn't have great stuff yesterday, but he's looked good otherwise. Still, finding negative in a 14-2 spring with the vast majority of the roster looking great can be tough and I think sometimes even scouts are looking for anything to bring some balance to opinions.
Yeah, I can see it being somewhat of a double edged sword when spring goes this well. As a scout, when everything you see if good…..and then if the Royals start the season 4-12 or something and then people go “dude, what the heck”….but at the time…that’s what you saw. Lol.
What I like about talking to this particular scout is he saw a lot of the Royals last year too, so there's a nice comparison to make. Of course, when they're playing this well, it might make them look even better.
I’ve been a Royals fan since 1972 and I’ve watched them have great springs only to roll over and die when the season started. Something feels different this year. They’re putting runs up early and if the other team gets ahead they pound back. I’ve been a Bubic fan for a while. Of all the pitchers who will benefit from aiming for the heart of the plate and letting natural movement take it from there, it’s him. I also have a soft spot for dozier, I really hope he gets it together. He just reminds me of a working class kinda player. Regardless of who makes this team and what their role is, I’ll be watching. I’m a Royals fan living in Yankee country and I can’t wait for a 2015 repeat. I love my boys!
I honestly don't know if it feels different or not because I wonder if it feels different every year, but 14-2 with a +54 run differential is very different than even 18-11 with a +40 run differential like they had in 2019.
Thanks for your opinion! Disappointed in Cuas and his pergola. Maybe he was a one year wonder. Same with Heasley. Maybe time will improve. Singer did not throw well in the WBC. that could be lack of spring trading. Watching Bobby hit for team USA, he seemed to be waiting and the ball getting deeper in the zone. Going to center and right, witch is good to see. Don't know about you, but I'm excited!
To be honest, I'm not sure Cuas or Heasley were good enough to be one year wonders, but they both absolutely can be more than depth pieces. I wouldn't worry too much about Singer. He had a bad inning. It happens. It looked like his mechanics were a bit out of whack, which you'd hope could get fixed quickly with coaches who know him.
I thought Witt looked good on that swing too. Kind of what he seemed like he was doing in Surprise before heading off.