I guess it’s been a while since I looked at the offensive stats. But the OBP on this team is…….whew…..quite frankly not near good enough in the modern game today. Bobby Witt I have a lot of faith in improving….Vinny should help…but other than that. Melendez can take a walk but its never seemed to translate to the OBP, at least yet. I’m not saying it’s easy. But that has to change in the minors. It might mean a few more years before we see any real improvement. But dang. It’s why Renfroe made no sense as well.
They definitely don't get on base enough. I think there's a reason to believe Garcia can improve given his minor league profile, so that'll be something to watch. I do think Witt can improve simply because he'll be pitched more carefully though he's never going to walk a ton. Melendez's OBP is a function of his batting average though. The OBP was 94 points above his average in 2022 and 81 points above it in 2023. If you want to call that isolated OBP, those are excellent numbers. He hit .273 in the second half and basically maintained the ISO OBP. If he's hitting .250 or higher, his OBP is more than good enough.
But yeah, the OBP is a big reason why I'd like to see Fermin play more. Maybe it's a function of the minors, but his walk rates have been solid in AAA the last two years even though the sample is pretty tiny last year. I'd be interested to see if he can maintain that in the big leagues with some consistent PAs.
I don't have a huge problem with prioritizing speed at the top of the lineup *if* that speed can also get on base. Garcia had a .348 OBP in Omaha last year, .359 between AA and AAA in 2022 and .380 between low-A and high-A in 2021. If he can be that .340-.350 OBP guy, I like that ability to score from first on a double ahead of the boppers. Obviously Witt also has that ability, but he hasn't shown he can put up that sort of OBP. If Garcia doesn't improve on the .323 from last year, I would absolutely love to see Vinnie leading off.
Do you anticipate Q shuffling the lineup as much as he did last year? It's such a sore spot with a lot of Royals fans. Seems like a better roster would mean fewer shuffles.
It's hard to say. I think it helps that he feels like he has the top of his order set, but look at his mentor in Tampa. The most used lineup for the Rays last year was used twice. They had 152 different lineups. Some of that is as simple as swapping a seven and eight hitter, so it doesn't tell the whole story, but Cash moves some lineups around too.
I imagine if the Royals win as much as the Rays, the lineup shuffling won't matter to the fans here either. But when you only win 56 games doing it, it's obviously the biggest problem to worry about. <he says tongue-in-cheek>
Oh I totally agree it's a weird thing to care about. I mean I trust the guy in charge to put a lineup out there based on all the data to get the right matchups. I was never really all that upset with the day-to-day lineups, but can't believe how many fans think Q is the worst manager ever simply because of it.
As for CF, I'm firmly in the Isbel>Waters camp. What do you do with Waters? Send him to AAA to get everyday ABs? Just don't see his value if he doesn't provide the defense Isbel can or if he can't cut down the strikeouts. The Outfield as a whole seems a little messy to me, other than Isbel in Center and MJ in Left. Corner spots don't spark much confidence defensively, they'll need to produce at the plate to make up for it.
Nelson Velazquez is someone I'm interested to watch this year. The short sampled homerun barrage last year is obviously tantalizing, but I'm curious if he can become a consistent power/run-producing threat. On a serious note, how many wins would an entire lineup of Nelson Velazquez's net? 85? 90? 100? I'll listen off air.
Yeah, I've had Waters off the roster the last two projections simply because I don't think he works well as a backup. I think he needs regular playing time and he's not as good defensively as Isbel, so it makes sense for Blanco to be that fourth/fifth guy and Waters to play every day in Omaha. I just don't know though. Maybe he's the guy in right field if Renfroe gets moved. Maybe he's the guy in left field if Melendez struggles.
Velazquez is interesting to me more now even because I'm not sure he makes the team. You can't rely on spring stats, but he's been really terrible and Nick Pratto has been really good. At some point, you've got to go to with the guy who earned it. A lineup of Velazquez's is probably good for 5-6 runs per game, but how much do you give back with him playing shortstop?
ah, didn't realize Velazquez's spring was going as poorly as it is. I've been pretty much out on Nick Pratto for awhile now, but may the best man win. And the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool is going to keep me distracted for awhile now, so thanks for that.
Yeah, he's just not doing anything. I've personally been out on him too, but the latest that he's been playing hurt for a couple of years is interesting to me given how well he's playing this spring. But it's also only spring, so who knows?
I kinda like Vinnie hitting 2nd in front of Bobby Witt. I think he would do better if pitchers are concerned to pitch around him, that's also just my eye test and no data behind it.
I just can't get behind the worst hitter (by wRC+ standards) batting leadoff. Do I believe he can do better than that... absolutely. But until he does, he should be at the bottom of the lineup, imo.
Obviously a subscribing fan here, but I found this article particularly good- lots of info organized concisely on the subject - thank you.
Pleasantly surprised with Masseys zips but disappointed in Velazquez projections. Intrigued with possibility of Pratto getting a spot, have no stat supported reasons for liking him, but he is fun to watch and I like the cut of his jib.
I guess it’s been a while since I looked at the offensive stats. But the OBP on this team is…….whew…..quite frankly not near good enough in the modern game today. Bobby Witt I have a lot of faith in improving….Vinny should help…but other than that. Melendez can take a walk but its never seemed to translate to the OBP, at least yet. I’m not saying it’s easy. But that has to change in the minors. It might mean a few more years before we see any real improvement. But dang. It’s why Renfroe made no sense as well.
They definitely don't get on base enough. I think there's a reason to believe Garcia can improve given his minor league profile, so that'll be something to watch. I do think Witt can improve simply because he'll be pitched more carefully though he's never going to walk a ton. Melendez's OBP is a function of his batting average though. The OBP was 94 points above his average in 2022 and 81 points above it in 2023. If you want to call that isolated OBP, those are excellent numbers. He hit .273 in the second half and basically maintained the ISO OBP. If he's hitting .250 or higher, his OBP is more than good enough.
But yeah, the OBP is a big reason why I'd like to see Fermin play more. Maybe it's a function of the minors, but his walk rates have been solid in AAA the last two years even though the sample is pretty tiny last year. I'd be interested to see if he can maintain that in the big leagues with some consistent PAs.
I’d like to see them try Vinnie and Bobby at 1-2, but i won’t hold my breath until that happens.
I don't have a huge problem with prioritizing speed at the top of the lineup *if* that speed can also get on base. Garcia had a .348 OBP in Omaha last year, .359 between AA and AAA in 2022 and .380 between low-A and high-A in 2021. If he can be that .340-.350 OBP guy, I like that ability to score from first on a double ahead of the boppers. Obviously Witt also has that ability, but he hasn't shown he can put up that sort of OBP. If Garcia doesn't improve on the .323 from last year, I would absolutely love to see Vinnie leading off.
Do you anticipate Q shuffling the lineup as much as he did last year? It's such a sore spot with a lot of Royals fans. Seems like a better roster would mean fewer shuffles.
It's hard to say. I think it helps that he feels like he has the top of his order set, but look at his mentor in Tampa. The most used lineup for the Rays last year was used twice. They had 152 different lineups. Some of that is as simple as swapping a seven and eight hitter, so it doesn't tell the whole story, but Cash moves some lineups around too.
I imagine if the Royals win as much as the Rays, the lineup shuffling won't matter to the fans here either. But when you only win 56 games doing it, it's obviously the biggest problem to worry about. <he says tongue-in-cheek>
That's absolutely true. Winning cures pretty much everything. Hell, Royals fans loved Alcides Escobar hitting leadoff.
I'm actually going to edit that. Many Royals fans loved it. Many still despised it haha.
That's a weird thing for fans to care about, especially with a young team that doesn't have any grouchy old guys to complain that they were moved.
Oh I totally agree it's a weird thing to care about. I mean I trust the guy in charge to put a lineup out there based on all the data to get the right matchups. I was never really all that upset with the day-to-day lineups, but can't believe how many fans think Q is the worst manager ever simply because of it.
Last line up flip flop Renfroe and Velasquez
As for CF, I'm firmly in the Isbel>Waters camp. What do you do with Waters? Send him to AAA to get everyday ABs? Just don't see his value if he doesn't provide the defense Isbel can or if he can't cut down the strikeouts. The Outfield as a whole seems a little messy to me, other than Isbel in Center and MJ in Left. Corner spots don't spark much confidence defensively, they'll need to produce at the plate to make up for it.
Nelson Velazquez is someone I'm interested to watch this year. The short sampled homerun barrage last year is obviously tantalizing, but I'm curious if he can become a consistent power/run-producing threat. On a serious note, how many wins would an entire lineup of Nelson Velazquez's net? 85? 90? 100? I'll listen off air.
Yeah, I've had Waters off the roster the last two projections simply because I don't think he works well as a backup. I think he needs regular playing time and he's not as good defensively as Isbel, so it makes sense for Blanco to be that fourth/fifth guy and Waters to play every day in Omaha. I just don't know though. Maybe he's the guy in right field if Renfroe gets moved. Maybe he's the guy in left field if Melendez struggles.
Velazquez is interesting to me more now even because I'm not sure he makes the team. You can't rely on spring stats, but he's been really terrible and Nick Pratto has been really good. At some point, you've got to go to with the guy who earned it. A lineup of Velazquez's is probably good for 5-6 runs per game, but how much do you give back with him playing shortstop?
ah, didn't realize Velazquez's spring was going as poorly as it is. I've been pretty much out on Nick Pratto for awhile now, but may the best man win. And the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool is going to keep me distracted for awhile now, so thanks for that.
Yeah, he's just not doing anything. I've personally been out on him too, but the latest that he's been playing hurt for a couple of years is interesting to me given how well he's playing this spring. But it's also only spring, so who knows?
I kinda like Vinnie hitting 2nd in front of Bobby Witt. I think he would do better if pitchers are concerned to pitch around him, that's also just my eye test and no data behind it.
I'm interested in that idea too actually. There are some different possibilities at the top.
Related to nothing...I almost want the Chiefs to sign WR Hunter Renfrow so they and the Royals both have one (Renfroe). : )
That is an absolute must.
I just can't get behind the worst hitter (by wRC+ standards) batting leadoff. Do I believe he can do better than that... absolutely. But until he does, he should be at the bottom of the lineup, imo.
I get the point, but also he isn't the worst at getting on base, which makes it a whole lot more understandable.
I remember when the Angels moved Trout from the 4 spot to the 2 spot and baseball fans everywhere lost their collective minds! Hahaha
Obviously a subscribing fan here, but I found this article particularly good- lots of info organized concisely on the subject - thank you.
Pleasantly surprised with Masseys zips but disappointed in Velazquez projections. Intrigued with possibility of Pratto getting a spot, have no stat supported reasons for liking him, but he is fun to watch and I like the cut of his jib.