I think Will Smith is the perfect fit. Veteran closer/setup man that had to settle for a one-year deal. Royals could probably get him at a more affordable yearly rate if they offer a 2-3 year deal.
I don't think it's safe to assume that Coleman is going to be even a league-average arm, let alone one we can count on in the late innings. He had a walk rate touching 13% even in 2022 when he was good, so he was already walking a tightrope act to begin with. Couple that already tenuous rate ballooning with losing a couple ticks on his fastball and you've got someone who's not even playable. Maybe I'm wrong and he'll turn it around, but he's got his work cut out for him.
Hernandez I'm tentatively a bit more confident he'll turn it around, if it really is just a mental thing and the stuff still plays as well as it does when he can locate.
I don't think it's safe to assume that either, but it's also only a year since he showed that he could be a legitimate late-inning weapon. I'm just saying it's possible and I appreciate the work he's doing at Tread (where Ragans went before 2023).
That's fair, I had forgotten he was going to Tread. Though I'm not sure how well it reflects on the org that guys continue to seek external help when they're struggling.
I keep seeing that sentiment and I just don't get it. Players in every organization seek external help. I appreciate that this group of coaches is secure enough to allow players to not have to adhere to their program and their program only.
I guess I just never hear about it as much with organizations that are more renowned for their pitching development. Like, you never hear about a Dodgers or Rays guy going to Tread or Driveline, they've got their own pitching labs and individualized programs in house already.
You'd probably hear about it if you were following those teams. I would say that just about every team has multiple players at other facilities in the offseason.
This is very fixable. And pretty quickly. However, IDK that we should really put McMillion down even in pencil. I’m a little worried they are just resting when they should have had TJ surgery 8 weeks ago and now it will just be delayed. It’s just a worry, but forearm strain….with his stuff. I’ve read that book many times. Lol. Just get it out of the way.
Sure, McMillon is concerning. But also, if he does need to go under the knife, there's not a huge difference between September and November in terms of getting back on a mound. You're missing all of 2024 either way and back by spring training 2025 either way.
Yeah, I didn’t think about that. It’s the part of the year that you are pretty much missing all of 24 either way.
Taylor Clarke has been the maddening one for me. He’s quite good for some stretches, and then each of the last couple years has been unplayable for about a month that kills all his numbers.
Totally agree on Clarke. For weeks at a time, he looks like he could bring back a legitimate top prospect in a trade and then it turns on a dime and he's a DFA candidate. I'm fine with them tendering a contract and seeing how the offseason shakes out because maybe the timing is good next year and he gets hot in June and July and can bring something back in a deal.
Honestly, the more of those guys who make the 2024 team, the more reason we have to be depressed. I think that there are some good bullpen arms out there, and it would be a good use of money to find 2-3 to bring in. Hernandez is maddeningly inconsistent, and I don't know what if anything will change that. Coleman? Only on a VERY short leash. McMillon? No news is NOT good news; if he was all good, we would be hearing about it. Forearm strain is, all too often, elbow-related - I am wondering if this is a wait-and-see on doing TJ.
But the more important question, for me, is this: Can we really afford to run Jordan Lyles out there 30+ times again? I don't care if we have to eat $8.5M (or whatever) - it would be worth it, as a fan, not to see him putting us in a hole nearly every start. In his 31 starts, he gave up 3 or fewer runs in 5+ innings only 9 times. The only reason to keep him at all is as a guy to eat 1-3 innings or more in someone else's blowout.
Teams don't generally announce players are healthy when there are no games to play. I'm not saying that no news is good news. I'm just saying that we don't know either way at this time of year. Forearms do often lead to TJ. They also don't always. Again, he may be gone for 2024 or he may not, but we have zero knowledge either way.
Jordan Lyles was absolutely a problem in 2023 and I'd like to not see him at all. But until he's off the team, he's part of that rotation and there's not a thing that we can do about it from here.
I have faith that this revamped coaching staff may be able to get Lyles righted to a serviceable 5th starter. For me they’ve earned some latitude with guys, but I also think they’ll cut bait sooner than we would have before if they can’t turn someone around
To be fair to yourself Dave, the pen had a very different look pre & post ASG. And we all knew that was coming. For the 2024 season I don’t expect a fire sale at the deadline. So whoever they add to shore things up, I expect to have most of them all season if they’re making the grade
I certainly appreciate the work you put in to all of your analysis! I honestly don’t know where to even start b/c last season was unprecedented in the fact that we weren’t making moves to try and win.
Great stuff, I'm particularly excited to see how the guys with real stuff progress/change with an offseason. Volatility may be certain, but I do have much more confidence in this coaching staff to maximize McMillan, Mcarthur, Hernandez, Coleman etc. Even if its temporary or inconsistent at times. Seeing more guys go to Tread and Driveline is encouraging as well. Just knowing they have a clear plan from the staff.
Also, they are hiring another Major League hitting coach according to Anne Rogers! Im now convinced JJ is reading Inside the Crown regularly..and maybe speaks to Q's awareness and openness to change.
I think Will Smith is the perfect fit. Veteran closer/setup man that had to settle for a one-year deal. Royals could probably get him at a more affordable yearly rate if they offer a 2-3 year deal.
He's definitely one who makes a lot of sense. It's a nice market for solid relievers.
Interesting read, and it gives me a slim ray of hope.
I don't think it's safe to assume that Coleman is going to be even a league-average arm, let alone one we can count on in the late innings. He had a walk rate touching 13% even in 2022 when he was good, so he was already walking a tightrope act to begin with. Couple that already tenuous rate ballooning with losing a couple ticks on his fastball and you've got someone who's not even playable. Maybe I'm wrong and he'll turn it around, but he's got his work cut out for him.
Hernandez I'm tentatively a bit more confident he'll turn it around, if it really is just a mental thing and the stuff still plays as well as it does when he can locate.
I don't think it's safe to assume that either, but it's also only a year since he showed that he could be a legitimate late-inning weapon. I'm just saying it's possible and I appreciate the work he's doing at Tread (where Ragans went before 2023).
That's fair, I had forgotten he was going to Tread. Though I'm not sure how well it reflects on the org that guys continue to seek external help when they're struggling.
I keep seeing that sentiment and I just don't get it. Players in every organization seek external help. I appreciate that this group of coaches is secure enough to allow players to not have to adhere to their program and their program only.
I guess I just never hear about it as much with organizations that are more renowned for their pitching development. Like, you never hear about a Dodgers or Rays guy going to Tread or Driveline, they've got their own pitching labs and individualized programs in house already.
You'd probably hear about it if you were following those teams. I would say that just about every team has multiple players at other facilities in the offseason.
This is very fixable. And pretty quickly. However, IDK that we should really put McMillion down even in pencil. I’m a little worried they are just resting when they should have had TJ surgery 8 weeks ago and now it will just be delayed. It’s just a worry, but forearm strain….with his stuff. I’ve read that book many times. Lol. Just get it out of the way.
Sure, McMillon is concerning. But also, if he does need to go under the knife, there's not a huge difference between September and November in terms of getting back on a mound. You're missing all of 2024 either way and back by spring training 2025 either way.
Yeah, I didn’t think about that. It’s the part of the year that you are pretty much missing all of 24 either way.
Taylor Clarke has been the maddening one for me. He’s quite good for some stretches, and then each of the last couple years has been unplayable for about a month that kills all his numbers.
Totally agree on Clarke. For weeks at a time, he looks like he could bring back a legitimate top prospect in a trade and then it turns on a dime and he's a DFA candidate. I'm fine with them tendering a contract and seeing how the offseason shakes out because maybe the timing is good next year and he gets hot in June and July and can bring something back in a deal.
Honestly, the more of those guys who make the 2024 team, the more reason we have to be depressed. I think that there are some good bullpen arms out there, and it would be a good use of money to find 2-3 to bring in. Hernandez is maddeningly inconsistent, and I don't know what if anything will change that. Coleman? Only on a VERY short leash. McMillon? No news is NOT good news; if he was all good, we would be hearing about it. Forearm strain is, all too often, elbow-related - I am wondering if this is a wait-and-see on doing TJ.
But the more important question, for me, is this: Can we really afford to run Jordan Lyles out there 30+ times again? I don't care if we have to eat $8.5M (or whatever) - it would be worth it, as a fan, not to see him putting us in a hole nearly every start. In his 31 starts, he gave up 3 or fewer runs in 5+ innings only 9 times. The only reason to keep him at all is as a guy to eat 1-3 innings or more in someone else's blowout.
Teams don't generally announce players are healthy when there are no games to play. I'm not saying that no news is good news. I'm just saying that we don't know either way at this time of year. Forearms do often lead to TJ. They also don't always. Again, he may be gone for 2024 or he may not, but we have zero knowledge either way.
Jordan Lyles was absolutely a problem in 2023 and I'd like to not see him at all. But until he's off the team, he's part of that rotation and there's not a thing that we can do about it from here.
I have faith that this revamped coaching staff may be able to get Lyles righted to a serviceable 5th starter. For me they’ve earned some latitude with guys, but I also think they’ll cut bait sooner than we would have before if they can’t turn someone around
Living on a Prayer, indeed.
But are we even halfway there?
If those four work out in an eight-man bullpen, yes.
I really just wanted to put the reference in there.
Wanted? Dead or alive?
To be fair to yourself Dave, the pen had a very different look pre & post ASG. And we all knew that was coming. For the 2024 season I don’t expect a fire sale at the deadline. So whoever they add to shore things up, I expect to have most of them all season if they’re making the grade
I certainly appreciate the work you put in to all of your analysis! I honestly don’t know where to even start b/c last season was unprecedented in the fact that we weren’t making moves to try and win.
Great stuff, I'm particularly excited to see how the guys with real stuff progress/change with an offseason. Volatility may be certain, but I do have much more confidence in this coaching staff to maximize McMillan, Mcarthur, Hernandez, Coleman etc. Even if its temporary or inconsistent at times. Seeing more guys go to Tread and Driveline is encouraging as well. Just knowing they have a clear plan from the staff.
Also, they are hiring another Major League hitting coach according to Anne Rogers! Im now convinced JJ is reading Inside the Crown regularly..and maybe speaks to Q's awareness and openness to change.