The Final Roster Projection: Position Players

This is my fourth roster projection. And my last. For 2023.

We are now just nine days away from Opening Day, which means we are in the final full week of spring training. Which also means that, yes, I’m done with roster projections after this one because the real thing comes out next week. Since the beginning, the position players have been more set than the pitchers, though I think the cast and crew around the core has rotated quite a bit. It’s all those darn non-roster invites who are causing these problems. But it’s a good thing. When you bring in players to compete for a job, you want them to actually show well. A tough decision because you have too many players deserving is one of those good problems that we talk about all the time.

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In past roster projections, I’ve used their 2022 stats, their ZiPS projections and their spring stats. In this roster projection, I’m going to use their Steamer projections because, hey, it’s fun to vary things. I’ll list the players who I think make the roster and then the guy(s) next up. Because it’s important to remember that we put a ton of importance on the Opening Day roster, but the next 187 days are just as important.

Catchers

Salvador Perez - .257/.298/.466, 111 wRC+, 29 HR, 4.2% BB, 23.9% K, 1.9 WAR

Freddy Fermin - .226/.293/.354, 82 wRC+, 8.0% BB, 20.9% K, 0.3 WAR

I’m believing more and more every day, with MJ Melendez not having caught much at all that the Royals are going to carry Fermin as a backup catcher. Also, people around this team absolutely RAVE about the work he’s done this spring. His job isn’t really to hit, but he’s continued this spring what he did the last few weeks of 2022 and what he did in the winter league. And, of course, there’s Salvy. He had a great WBC and now will be back with the team to finish out his spring, ready to catch a lot.

3/22 Edit: Fermin has been optioned. Not sure if it opens up a spot for Matt Duffy or Jackie Bradley Jr., but someone will benefit from that choice.

Next Up

Logan Porter - .223/.319/.346, 91 wRC+, 11.2% BB, 27.1% K, 0.0 WAR

Luca Tresh - .224/.286/.355, 80 wRC+, 7.3% BB, 26.0% K, 0.0 WAR

Porter has gotten a ton of playing time with both Melendez and Perez at the WBC and has made the absolute most of it, hitting .381/.480/.476, but what’s surprised me the most has been what I’ve heard regarding his defense. I don’t think he’s necessarily primed to be a gold glover or anything, but people are a little surprised with how well he’s received this spring. I think he has a real shot to be a big leaguer this year. And right behind him is Tresh, who has shown an advanced approach in also getting some extra chances because of the WBC guys. He was obviously already on the radar, but that’s even more true today than it was a month ago.

First Base

Vinnie Pasquantino - .277/.361/.475, 135 wRC+, 22 HR, 10.8% BB, 13.9% K, 2.9 WAR

Whatever nickname you prefer for Pasquantino (I like My Crushin’ Vinnie but nobody seems to join me in that), he’s the guy at first base to start the season. He’s more than competent defensively and he was a top-30 bat last season as a rookie and projects to continue that. I’m very curious to see what life for him with restricted shifts looks like and think he can legitimately be a top-20 hitter in all of baseball this season. I’m not worried about his tough WBC, though the strikeouts were a little surprising at least. I’m excited to see him back in action with the club this week and really excited to see how he does in 2023.

Next Up

Nick Pratto - .211/.308/.393, 98 wRC+, 11.1% BB, 31.4% K, 0.3 WAR

I think Pratto is someone who is going to be difficult for me to not believe in. I know the swing and miss gives people a ton of pause, but he knows the strike zone so well and he’s an intelligent hitter. I just think that combination leads to success often enough that you don’t stop believing in that. In some ways, I wonder if he’s been trying to make more contact this spring. He has just three extra base hits in 42 plate appearances. But in other ways, I worry if that’s the case because he still has 13 strikeouts. Those strikeouts are always going to be there, but he also has big league power and is a legitimately great glove at first base. I think he ultimately gets a lot of time in the big leagues in 2023, but not right away.

Second Base

Michael Massey - .254/.305/.398, 96 wRC+, 5.6% BB, 22.0% K, 1.2 WAR

Massey has been one of my favorites for awhile now and he’s put together a very good spring. He’s even walked three times in 39 plate appearances, which is great for him. He was listed in Baseball America’s 25 Players Standing Out to Scouts article last week, and this was part of the write-up.

“He had a slow start to spring but he’s really turning it on and finding his stride. Timing is there. Barreling up balls. Surprise isn't a tough place to hit, but it’s not like it’s wind-aided or smoke and mirrors. It’s legit. I think this guy is primed to take the second base job…Defensively he’s a little bit limited, but he will make the plays at him. This guy’s bat is legit and there’s some power there. I see quite honestly a .270-.280-type hitter with the potential for 20 bombs. I think this is a legit everyday player.”

He’s definitely shown a good ability to drive the ball this spring, though I wonder how much Kauffman Stadium will continue to sap the home run potential for him. On Baseball Savant’s “expected home runs by park” feature, he had three if all his games were played in KC and would have had a ridiculous 15 in Cincinnati. He’d have had at least six in 24 different parks. Of course, not all 162 are played at home, but that’s at least interesting. I don’t know if Massey profiles as more of a two-hitter or seven-hitter, but I do believe he’s a big league hitter who helps a lineup.

Next Up

Samad Taylor - .235/.304/.374, 90 wRC+, 8.1% BB, 24.0% K, 0.3 WAR

I wrote when the Royals acquired him about how I saw Taylor once in 2019 and was impressed. He’s had his struggles to stay healthy, but I think there’s a pretty fun box of tools he has to work with as a player. He can handle the infield and the outfield. He can run. He has more power than you’d expect, though he won’t win any home run derbies. I think he’s a solid player who profiles really well in a role that includes a lot of versatility. Could he start? Sure. And he might even have a couple of years in his career in his prime when he’s the best option. But I think he’s best served helping in a lot of areas.

Third Base

Hunter Dozier - .231/.298/.384, 92 wRC+, 13 HR, 7.9% BB, 26.0% K, 0.3 WAR

People don’t like it, but Dozier is starting the season at third base. As I wrote on the last roster projection, the reports on his defense have actually been good, though I think he’s always going to be limited by having slower feet. He’s not actually slow, but his feet appear to be. Offensively, I’ve liked what I’ve seen with some swing changes to keep the bat a little flatter in the zone for longer, so we’ll see how they do, but he’s the guy who is going to start the season there. We’ll see how long it works. My theory that I’ve said for awhile now is that he’s off this team by August 1 either by trade or DFA. I guess there is a world where he’s a bat off the bench, but I’d say that’s the third option.

Next Up

Maikel Garcia - .245/.301/.348, 83 wRC+, 7.0% BB, 19.7% K, 0.0 WAR

Nick Loftin - .233/.290/.350, 79 wRC+, 6.5% BB, 18.6% K, 0.0 WAR

The Royals best defense is likely with Garcia at shortstop and Bobby Witt Jr. at third base, but Witt is the guy they want to be the face of the organization and that’s where he’s most valuable, so Garcia may have to shift to third some. I also think his ultimate role is utility player anyway, so him playing third and some outfield isn’t the worst thing in the world. That said, there could be a world where Witt does slide over to third in the middle of the season, but Garcia is still ostensibly the first man up to replace Dozier’s spot if a replacement is needed. I’ve heard a lot of great things about Garcia and a lot of good but not great things. Pretty much everyone I talk to agrees he’s a big leaguer, but not everyone is sold on him as an every day bat.

Loftin is kind of similar, but with additional muscle, I’ll be curious to see what kind of power he shows in AAA. He did hit 17 home runs last year and had a .175 ISO in 2021 in Quad Cities, so there was some thump in the bat before he was beefed up. This is a big year for him. I don’t think he’s good enough at shortstop to play there every day, so he’s an option at second if Massey proves he isn’t good enough and at third, Cayden Wallace is nipping at his heels. Loftin was solid in the outfield, but I don’t think he’s a center fielder at Kauffman Stadium and the Royals have plenty of corner outfielders, both in the big leagues and in the minors. So he has a limited time to take hold of third. But he could also be another guy who is super versatile and works in a utility role.

Shortstop

Bobby Witt Jr. - .260/.309/.451, 111 wRC+, 25 HR, 33 SB, 5.8% BB, 20.2% K, 3.7 WAR

Next Up

Garcia

See above for Garcia thoughts.

Utility Infielder

Nicky Lopez - .254/.314/.336, 84 wRC+, 13 SB, 7.3% BB, 14.1% K, 1.1 WAR

Next Up

Garcia, Loftin, Taylor

I already told you about these three. Come on now.

Outfield

Edward Olivares - .257/.314/.407, 102 wRC+. 6.7% BB, 19.4% K, 0.7 WAR

Kyle Isbel - .242/.303/.385, 93 wRC+, 11 HR, 17 SB, 7.0% BB, 24.2% K, 0.9 WAR

MJ Melendez - .237/.328/.431, 114 wRC+, 22 HR, 11.6% BB, 22.7% K, 1.6 WAR

Nate Eaton - .237/.297/.360, 84 wRC+, 12 SB, 6.7% BB, 23.6% K, 0.3 WAR

I feel confident this is the group, but not that confident because Jackie Bradley Jr. has played pretty well. I think there’s a chance that Eaton’s versatility either keeps Matt Beaty off the roster or that the Royals don’t carry a true backup catcher to get Bradley in there. He’s hit the ball hard and played his usual excellent defense in camp. And there is something attractive about a late-inning defense of Isbel in left, Bradley in center and Eaton in right. The reason I don’t have JBJ on this list is simply the lack of at bats, but he can catch up pretty quickly too, so I’m the least confident on this group (and the subsequent fallout).

I also think, and sorry to say this, there’s a chance Olivares doesn’t make the club. He isn’t having an especially strong spring and he does have an option. If Isbel is in left field on Opening Day and Bradley is in center, you wouldn’t have to pick my jaw up off the floor. I think the idea of an outfield with both Olivares and Melendez isn’t exactly the Royals dream scenario and if they can avoid it, they might. I’m not sold that Bradley is making this team just yet because of the catch-up he has to play, but I’m almost there on putting him on the roster.

Next Up

Jackie Bradley Jr. - .225/.288/.347, 78 wRC+, 7.1% BB, 23.4% K, 0.1 WAR

Drew Waters - .234/.302/.383, 92 wRC+, 10 HR, 9 SB, 8.2% BB, 29.1% K, 0.8 WAR

Tyler Gentry - .248/.319/.394, 101 wRC+, 8.2% BB, 25.6% K, 0.0 WAR

You know my thoughts on Bradley, who with every word I write, I’m thinking should be on my actual roster projection. And Waters is set to be on this big league roster once he’s healthy and ready. I actually could easily see a scenario where Bradley fills a spot until Waters is healthy and Waters steps in to keep the defense tight. I’m very curious how all of that plays out.

And then there’s Gentry, who I think is closer than maybe his spring numbers would indicate. I guess that’s not true. His six walks in 36 plate appearances show his discipline. He hit .321/.417/.555 in AA after hitting .336/.434/.516 in high-A last year. He doesn’t swing and miss much and he’s good enough defensively. It’s a matter of time before he’s playing a corner in the big leagues. He could be part of a trade to help the Royals rotation, I suppose, so maybe he stays in the minors to put up numbers so as not to dilute his prospect status, but he’s also an option once he gets some time in AAA. Whatever the Royals do with Melendez is very interesting because he could be the replacement for whichever of Isbel and Waters aren’t cutting it, if either aren’t.

Later in the year, you can add Diego Hernandez to this mix when he gets healthy. Many will wonder where Gavin Cross lands. I think he could hit his way to a chance late in 2023, but I’d guess he’s more likely to debut in 2024.

Infield/Outfield

Matt Beaty - .239/.307/.362, 89 wRC+, 6.6% BB, 20.8% K, 0.0 WAR

I’ve waffled between Beaty and Matt Duffy on every one of these, which is probably bad news for Beaty because that means Duffy would be on the next one if there was, but the next one is just the roster. Beaty has showed a powerful bat and an ability to even play some third base. It’s hard to think a team needs both Lopez and Duffy, so if Beaty can handle a little third, I just don’t see a spot for Duffy. We’ll see how long Beaty lasts, but he’s also had big league success, hitting .262/.333/.425 from 2019 to 2021 in 556 plate appearances. Beaty is a perfect example of improving the bottom of the roster. He’s Ryan O’Hearn 2.0 and I think he makes a lot of sense on this team, at least for the time being.

Designated Hitter

Franmil Reyes - .240/.302/.431, 104 wRC+, 9 HR, 7.7% BB, 29.5% K, 0.1 WAR

Reyes has been a monster this spring, hitting .424/.500/.788 with three doubles and three homers. Maybe more impressive is that he’s only struck out in 18.6 percent of his plate appearances. He will absolutely clog the bases and I hope they hide his glove, but the man can hit the ball hard and a long way. He looks like he’s back in shape and he looks like he can add another righty thumper to this lineup. Is he a long-term piece? Absolutely not. He might even be traded at the deadline if all goes well, but I think they took a worthwhile shot on him and they’ve been rewarded to this point of the spring.

Next Up

Pasquantino, by way of Pratto

At some point, I think Reyes gets moved and Pratto gets the nod to play first (mostly) with Pasquantino at the DH spot (a lot of the time). It just makes sense as the season goes on.

I think if you look at this through the lens of the projections, this offense might struggle at times to score runs. I do think there’ll be weeks they look great and weeks they look lost, though I hope those weeks they look lost are more like 2-3 games and the weeks they look great extend a little longer. I think it’s easy to squint and see six of nine starters projected to be above average offensively and another couple within a slight improvement from that and have big hopes they’ll score runs. It does appear this offense is pretty well set, assuming health, for the first two or three months of the season. After that, they’ve got some pieces who could rotate in if needed. I’m excited to see how they look with the bats in 2023.