A week ago I said if JBJ gets a large number of at bats for this team something has gone terribly wrong…..and here you are saying you think he is going to make the team now! Noooooo, stop this from happening. Lol
It’s a rebuild year…everyone has said that. If it’s not Isbel then try Eaton. I don’t understand this love the Royals (half this administration) has had with JBJ. Its happening…..
Hey, he wasn't on there as making the team! I think what it comes down to is that they don't believe Olivares is a good enough hitter to justify playing him in the outfield and living with his defense. Many will disagree. I'm not sure where I stand. I love Oli, but he had a .124 ISO last year and doesn't walk much. I think he can hit enough to be valuable, but I also kind of understand thinking it's not enough to justify the glove. I agree that I'd go with Eaton over JBJ starting and maybe they do if they end up optioning Olivares, but I think the real test is what happens when Waters comes back *if* JBJ makes the roster.
Thanks David, good thoughts. My favorite thing is what you mentioned; we're talking about guys beating out others for roster positions, not slotting guys in due to no alternatives. Plus, there always seems to be the player who tears it up in spring training and falls off a cliff the next month. Injuries also are always lurking (see Waters). Depth, and next guy up are important.
Really good point here. Guys are actually earning spots this year compared to realizing someone has to stand there. All in all, I've got no real qualms with this group. I'm sure people will underperform, but I guess it's also about trusting (hoping?) that this regime won't stick with players beyond their expiration date.
If BWJ at third base is really what's best for the team then that should happen at once! His defense at SS last year was far from encouraging but they need his bat in the lineup and his speed on the bases.
I don't have any problem with seeing what he can do at shortstop this year. He's prepping to play there, which is a contrast to last year. He has a new infield coach who is supposed to be excellent at his job. And he has a year of experience under his belt. I've heard fantastic reports about his defense. But on top of that, if his value is the highest there and he wants to be there, I think it's in the team's best interest to try to make that work and either prove, to both him and the team, that he can't or prove that he can. If it comes to the conclusion that he can't and they don't move him, then I'll be upset.
I think I am in the minority here and I get your concerns, but I really think BWJ is going to be a good, maybe great ss this year. I doubt the new regime would put him there if they didn't think he could shine there, but maybe they both need some proof.
I like the potential of this roster. 3b likely needs an upgrade, and we really need at least 1 of the OF positions to turn out way better than expected, but if the rest just meet expectations or perhaps be slightly better than expected, this team will score some runs and be exciting to watch. Starting pitching as you've mentioned is the big concern, but if the coaching can make a significant impact, this team could surprise people. I'm not saying we're World Series bound or anything, but I don't think being above .500 is out of the realm of possibilities.
They should hit enough to win some games, I would think. And I will die on the hill that the bullpen is good enough to win some games they shouldn't. But I do worry about the starting pitchers. I think they have a chance to surprise and approach .500. I think it would still be a surprise to get there, but I don't think it's impossible or anything.
I’m definitely hoping for some “possible, if not probable” scenarios. But, hey it’s less of them than usual, so that’s progress!
The lineup is better top to bottom and if all the improved Coaching staff talk is to be believed then the pitching should be at least a bit better as it’s almost the same staff. Soooo, the over/under is 69.5. I’m taking the over.
And glad to see you’ve moved to subscriptions and getting paid Lesky. Just because the franchise has stunk for a while doesn’t mean your work did.
I said this on a radio spot in Columbia yesterday and I should probably write this at some point, but a guy like Taylor Clarke is the perfect litmus test to me. At times in 2023, he was the second-best reliever. I'm writing the pitcher projections right now and I'm having a hard time putting him on the roster. Yeah, I'd say they've turned over the bottom of the roster. Beaty isn't quite that extreme of an example and he did struggle in a limited big league sample with the Padres, but wouldn't you rather have the numbers I posted above than O'Hearn? I'd take the over too. I think their floor is a lot higher today than it was at the end of last season.
Pure blue-sky hypothetical here: what if Dozier has a first half of the season that's on par with what he did in 2019 (.279/.348/.522)? Does this Royals braintrust decide they've fixed him and he's a keeper, or do they see it as a chance to sell high?
Regarding JBJ and Franmil: Bradley is the argument against bringing in these non-roster invitee vets and hoping you pick up some free value. He is who he is. If you fool yourself into thinking you've got something good, you end up with a vet clogging up a roster spot and potentially even a spot in the everyday lineup. As Joel said above, they shouldn't be doing anything that is contrary to their development goals.
As for Reyes, he's looking like a great example of why it makes sense to bring in other teams' castoffs. Who knows if he keeps up this kind of production but it's exciting to think that for the price of a minor league contract they bought a legit power threat who could be a major trade chip in July.
It's an interesting question about Dozier and I think it depends a little on what some of the guys in the minors are doing. I've said this so many times before, but Dozier isn't expensive. If he's hitting and your prospects aren't ready, he's not going to bring back enough in a trade for it to be a huge mistake to not trade him if you truly believe you fixed him. I think that's the other side. If you determine that's a lucky start to the year, you trade as soon as you can and figure out third base.
I maintain that JBJ is a stopgap who would never have even been on the radar if Waters was healthy. I could be wrong, but I don't think he's playing much of a role on this team once Waters gets back if he ever plays a role on this team. I'd argue, though, that he's actually blocking anyone with Waters hurt. And that's why Reyes is fine for me too. He's sort of blocking Nick Pratto, but they want Pratto to work on things still. Until then, he can just mash some homers and hope they can get a good lower-level arm for him in July.
I actually thought about this too. I think (hope) JJ would make the trade for whatever they can get back even if this team and Dozier are playing well. Dayton would probably lean towards an extension but I think this is an easy move for JJ to do the opposite.
Not sure how I feel about JBJ making this team. However we do need an infusion of one or two more veterans in the clubhouse maybe. I would rather see him make roster than Olivares. Also very interesting opinion on Porter. I did not think he was even on their big league radar yet. That's gonna be very interesting to watch. Especially given Salvys injury past. Logan might have a chance to get in some games up here.
I was pretty surprised to get the feedback on Porter behind the plate that I did. I could see him getting a shot, though he's got an uphill battle on the depth chart.
I hated the JBJ signing when it happened. If we still had the previous regime in charge, there is no doubt he would be on the Opening day roster. But I am also hopeful that MQ represents a new set of ideas and they cut and we don't have to see him again. I agree on the rest of your projections. Looking forward to Opening Day.
I was happy to subscribe, David - and I encourage others to do the same if they have the means. What’s up with the lack of beat writers for the club? Is this a trend with other MLB clubs?
And if anyone hasn’t read Logan Porter’s backstory - it’s a great one. We were in Surprise and caught 4 games a couple weeks ago and man is he a guy that’s easy to root for… The Athletic took a deep dive into Logan’s journey about a year ago and I’ve been rooting for him since.
As for the beat writers, I have no idea, but it's infuriating to me honestly. I guess it makes newsletters like this and all the other great Royals coverage out there more important and more valuable, but I still don't get it.
Thank you for sharing that article about Porter. I had totally forgotten about it, but it's great!
David I really enjoy your articles on the Royals and I'm glad to subscribe to support you. It wouldn't surprise me if they optioned Olivares and keep Bradley. I could see them using Eaton, Baty & Isbel in RF when Bradley is in CF. Probably DFA Bradley when Waters is ready. I go up to the complex frequently since I only live a mile away. Looking forward to your projection for the pitchers!
I kind of get the impression that MJ is going to play mostly right field. That's generally been where he's played when he's been in the outfield, including at the WBC, so I think that's probably his spot. But yeah, it'll be interesting to see how they handle these outfielders.
I am right there with you on Olivares, Isbel, Melendez and Eaton being OF. (for now)
When you write " I think the idea of an outfield with both Olivares and Melendez isn’t exactly the Royals dream scenario" are you referring to offense, defense or both?
I’m not sure what you’re wanting to see. The stats are just different projection systems and who I have on the roster is based on what I’ve seen and what I’ve heard from people who are smarter than me.
I think pasquintino hits better than 255 and I think Lopez hits better than that. I don't think Witt hits 260. I also think pasquintino's war will be higher than Witt. He may not be a great defensive 1st baseman but Witt isn't all that great at short. He's quick and has a good arm but at least for a few years he's going to throw some balls in the seats. I think dozier average will be higher just because he'll be more motivated this year and I think if he's hitting above 260 with a few home run at the break they will trade him. Other than that I pretty much agree with all the others. I'm just not a big fan of Witt or pratto. Witt might become a superstar I just don't like his game. He strikes out way too much and doesn't take enough walks to suit me. Pratto will never hit and royal stadium will hurt his power. He might hit better with the shift gone but I think the pitchers will adjust and he'll end up striking out more than ever.
Y I was right there with Lesky that he would be on. But kinda makes sense. I think we will see him sooner than later. IDK why I like Pratto so much, I guess because his defense and intensity fun to watch. Another makes sense move that Lesky got right
A week ago I said if JBJ gets a large number of at bats for this team something has gone terribly wrong…..and here you are saying you think he is going to make the team now! Noooooo, stop this from happening. Lol
It’s a rebuild year…everyone has said that. If it’s not Isbel then try Eaton. I don’t understand this love the Royals (half this administration) has had with JBJ. Its happening…..
Hey, he wasn't on there as making the team! I think what it comes down to is that they don't believe Olivares is a good enough hitter to justify playing him in the outfield and living with his defense. Many will disagree. I'm not sure where I stand. I love Oli, but he had a .124 ISO last year and doesn't walk much. I think he can hit enough to be valuable, but I also kind of understand thinking it's not enough to justify the glove. I agree that I'd go with Eaton over JBJ starting and maybe they do if they end up optioning Olivares, but I think the real test is what happens when Waters comes back *if* JBJ makes the roster.
Thanks David, good thoughts. My favorite thing is what you mentioned; we're talking about guys beating out others for roster positions, not slotting guys in due to no alternatives. Plus, there always seems to be the player who tears it up in spring training and falls off a cliff the next month. Injuries also are always lurking (see Waters). Depth, and next guy up are important.
Really good point here. Guys are actually earning spots this year compared to realizing someone has to stand there. All in all, I've got no real qualms with this group. I'm sure people will underperform, but I guess it's also about trusting (hoping?) that this regime won't stick with players beyond their expiration date.
If BWJ at third base is really what's best for the team then that should happen at once! His defense at SS last year was far from encouraging but they need his bat in the lineup and his speed on the bases.
I don't have any problem with seeing what he can do at shortstop this year. He's prepping to play there, which is a contrast to last year. He has a new infield coach who is supposed to be excellent at his job. And he has a year of experience under his belt. I've heard fantastic reports about his defense. But on top of that, if his value is the highest there and he wants to be there, I think it's in the team's best interest to try to make that work and either prove, to both him and the team, that he can't or prove that he can. If it comes to the conclusion that he can't and they don't move him, then I'll be upset.
I think I am in the minority here and I get your concerns, but I really think BWJ is going to be a good, maybe great ss this year. I doubt the new regime would put him there if they didn't think he could shine there, but maybe they both need some proof.
I like the potential of this roster. 3b likely needs an upgrade, and we really need at least 1 of the OF positions to turn out way better than expected, but if the rest just meet expectations or perhaps be slightly better than expected, this team will score some runs and be exciting to watch. Starting pitching as you've mentioned is the big concern, but if the coaching can make a significant impact, this team could surprise people. I'm not saying we're World Series bound or anything, but I don't think being above .500 is out of the realm of possibilities.
They should hit enough to win some games, I would think. And I will die on the hill that the bullpen is good enough to win some games they shouldn't. But I do worry about the starting pitchers. I think they have a chance to surprise and approach .500. I think it would still be a surprise to get there, but I don't think it's impossible or anything.
I’m definitely hoping for some “possible, if not probable” scenarios. But, hey it’s less of them than usual, so that’s progress!
The lineup is better top to bottom and if all the improved Coaching staff talk is to be believed then the pitching should be at least a bit better as it’s almost the same staff. Soooo, the over/under is 69.5. I’m taking the over.
And glad to see you’ve moved to subscriptions and getting paid Lesky. Just because the franchise has stunk for a while doesn’t mean your work did.
I said this on a radio spot in Columbia yesterday and I should probably write this at some point, but a guy like Taylor Clarke is the perfect litmus test to me. At times in 2023, he was the second-best reliever. I'm writing the pitcher projections right now and I'm having a hard time putting him on the roster. Yeah, I'd say they've turned over the bottom of the roster. Beaty isn't quite that extreme of an example and he did struggle in a limited big league sample with the Padres, but wouldn't you rather have the numbers I posted above than O'Hearn? I'd take the over too. I think their floor is a lot higher today than it was at the end of last season.
And hey, thanks for subscribing!
I like your Next One Up projection because I can see the depth that the Royals have.
The rotation next up tomorrow isn't going to be quite as enjoyable!
Pure blue-sky hypothetical here: what if Dozier has a first half of the season that's on par with what he did in 2019 (.279/.348/.522)? Does this Royals braintrust decide they've fixed him and he's a keeper, or do they see it as a chance to sell high?
Regarding JBJ and Franmil: Bradley is the argument against bringing in these non-roster invitee vets and hoping you pick up some free value. He is who he is. If you fool yourself into thinking you've got something good, you end up with a vet clogging up a roster spot and potentially even a spot in the everyday lineup. As Joel said above, they shouldn't be doing anything that is contrary to their development goals.
As for Reyes, he's looking like a great example of why it makes sense to bring in other teams' castoffs. Who knows if he keeps up this kind of production but it's exciting to think that for the price of a minor league contract they bought a legit power threat who could be a major trade chip in July.
It's an interesting question about Dozier and I think it depends a little on what some of the guys in the minors are doing. I've said this so many times before, but Dozier isn't expensive. If he's hitting and your prospects aren't ready, he's not going to bring back enough in a trade for it to be a huge mistake to not trade him if you truly believe you fixed him. I think that's the other side. If you determine that's a lucky start to the year, you trade as soon as you can and figure out third base.
I maintain that JBJ is a stopgap who would never have even been on the radar if Waters was healthy. I could be wrong, but I don't think he's playing much of a role on this team once Waters gets back if he ever plays a role on this team. I'd argue, though, that he's actually blocking anyone with Waters hurt. And that's why Reyes is fine for me too. He's sort of blocking Nick Pratto, but they want Pratto to work on things still. Until then, he can just mash some homers and hope they can get a good lower-level arm for him in July.
I actually thought about this too. I think (hope) JJ would make the trade for whatever they can get back even if this team and Dozier are playing well. Dayton would probably lean towards an extension but I think this is an easy move for JJ to do the opposite.
I think you can look to the Santana situation last year as a vague guide. He got moved real fast when he started hitting.
Not sure how I feel about JBJ making this team. However we do need an infusion of one or two more veterans in the clubhouse maybe. I would rather see him make roster than Olivares. Also very interesting opinion on Porter. I did not think he was even on their big league radar yet. That's gonna be very interesting to watch. Especially given Salvys injury past. Logan might have a chance to get in some games up here.
I was pretty surprised to get the feedback on Porter behind the plate that I did. I could see him getting a shot, though he's got an uphill battle on the depth chart.
I hated the JBJ signing when it happened. If we still had the previous regime in charge, there is no doubt he would be on the Opening day roster. But I am also hopeful that MQ represents a new set of ideas and they cut and we don't have to see him again. I agree on the rest of your projections. Looking forward to Opening Day.
My guess is if JBJ is on the roster that he's not on it once Waters gets back, but just a guess at this point.
I was happy to subscribe, David - and I encourage others to do the same if they have the means. What’s up with the lack of beat writers for the club? Is this a trend with other MLB clubs?
And if anyone hasn’t read Logan Porter’s backstory - it’s a great one. We were in Surprise and caught 4 games a couple weeks ago and man is he a guy that’s easy to root for… The Athletic took a deep dive into Logan’s journey about a year ago and I’ve been rooting for him since.
https://theathletic.com/3220383/2022/03/31/royals-logan-porter-traveled-baseballs-backroads-then-reached-his-dream-across-the-street-from-high-school/?source=user_shared_article
Thanks so much for subscribing!
As for the beat writers, I have no idea, but it's infuriating to me honestly. I guess it makes newsletters like this and all the other great Royals coverage out there more important and more valuable, but I still don't get it.
Thank you for sharing that article about Porter. I had totally forgotten about it, but it's great!
I like it.
David I really enjoy your articles on the Royals and I'm glad to subscribe to support you. It wouldn't surprise me if they optioned Olivares and keep Bradley. I could see them using Eaton, Baty & Isbel in RF when Bradley is in CF. Probably DFA Bradley when Waters is ready. I go up to the complex frequently since I only live a mile away. Looking forward to your projection for the pitchers!
I kind of get the impression that MJ is going to play mostly right field. That's generally been where he's played when he's been in the outfield, including at the WBC, so I think that's probably his spot. But yeah, it'll be interesting to see how they handle these outfielders.
I am right there with you on Olivares, Isbel, Melendez and Eaton being OF. (for now)
When you write " I think the idea of an outfield with both Olivares and Melendez isn’t exactly the Royals dream scenario" are you referring to offense, defense or both?
I’m talking about their defense. There’s a lot of ground to cover in Kauffman and Olivares and Melendez aren’t exactly elite defenders.
Would love to see the previous methodology when doing your calculations (see if there’s a significant difference)
I’m not sure what you’re wanting to see. The stats are just different projection systems and who I have on the roster is based on what I’ve seen and what I’ve heard from people who are smarter than me.
I think pasquintino hits better than 255 and I think Lopez hits better than that. I don't think Witt hits 260. I also think pasquintino's war will be higher than Witt. He may not be a great defensive 1st baseman but Witt isn't all that great at short. He's quick and has a good arm but at least for a few years he's going to throw some balls in the seats. I think dozier average will be higher just because he'll be more motivated this year and I think if he's hitting above 260 with a few home run at the break they will trade him. Other than that I pretty much agree with all the others. I'm just not a big fan of Witt or pratto. Witt might become a superstar I just don't like his game. He strikes out way too much and doesn't take enough walks to suit me. Pratto will never hit and royal stadium will hurt his power. He might hit better with the shift gone but I think the pitchers will adjust and he'll end up striking out more than ever.
They just optioned Fermin to Omaha. Interesting.
That seems to open a spot for Duffy or Bradley but they still have a full 40-man (and Brentz who will make room for one addition).
Y I was right there with Lesky that he would be on. But kinda makes sense. I think we will see him sooner than later. IDK why I like Pratto so much, I guess because his defense and intensity fun to watch. Another makes sense move that Lesky got right