The Royals offense is bad because it doesn't hit what it should and the Royals is pitching is bad because teams take advantage of them, though there might be hope there.
Nice analysis David! Man, it is a struggle to listen to Ryan and Rex right now. I had the game on silent in the background last night because I can’t stand listening to “how hard these guys are hitting the ball”. I….do…..not….care….. lol. They have the worst run differential in the American League so I don’t care how hard you are hitting the ball right now. I know they have to have positive things to say about the team as it is the job. I get it, but man it is hard to listen to. Those two desperately need a good game to talk about as well!
They do need a good game to talk about, but they also need to learn that you can criticize without being unfair. I think their excuses aren't entirely their fault. The organization has thin skin. Or at least people in it have had thin skin in the past and they have to answer to them every day. It makes it difficult, but also I don't need to hear about the terrible luck of Whit Merrifield (though that out in the ninth was legitimately bad luck) when his hard-hit rate is in the 23rd percentile or whatever it is now.
Thank you for pulling the numbers on this, it is something I have been noticing as well. I thought the pitching numbers would be worse because I keep telling people that "all of our mistakes are tagged, meanwhile we never take advantage of the other pitchers' mistakes." Maybe I need to walk that back a little. Or maybe I have been noticing it on fastballs and have been rationalizing away the breaking stuff because it might have at least thrown off the batter's timing (especially Grienke's slow curve). I don't know, either way it is frustrating. As a side note, the broadcast continuing to note that someone "just missed it" or "has been unlucky this year" is starting to wear very thin.
Yeah, the pitching really surprised me, though the fastball numbers are a mess. I like going into an article not knowing everything that I'll find. Nice little surprise sometimes!
And yes on the broadcast! Stop with the unlucky talk.
Great article. You do really good analysis. I often wonder if the club has the same information as you do. And if they do are they working on fixing the issues? Hopefully they do end up averaging out and we can go on a little winning streak soon. Because being 20 games out of 1st before June is not gonna be a fun summer.
I’m sure they have this information….but finding the issue, acknowledging the issue, and then correcting the issue are all different beasts to tackle. If it was as easy as hey Whit, quit missing the meatballs….I’m sure it would have been addressed already. It also doesn’t help that correcting the issue could be different with 9 different guys and its not a one fix and all cured. That being said…..time for some changes fellas. If we played .500 ball the rest of the way we would be at 72 or so wins. Can they play .500 ball the rest of the way…….ewweeehhhhhhhhh.
Oh sure. And some of it is likely just a timing issue. While it's easy to diagnose, it's not so easy to fix. I don't know what the answer is (though there is probably enough video to try to find it on a guy like Whit). The good news is that your math is off a bit. If they play .500 the rest of the way, they end up at 76 or 77 wins.
Ahh your right. I just took 81-9. Anyway, math is hard. See, that changes the whole perspective because I’d take 76 wins before the season. However, my confidence they can play .500 ball the rest of the way is much lower than it was 4 weeks ago.
What's so frustrating is that if you showed someone the Royals roster without telling them how the season had gone so far, I'd wager they would say they're a 75-80 win team. That's not to say they can't get there. They had two long stretches of +.500 baseball last year. They started 29-26 and finished 38-35. They just went 7-27 in the middle.
I wonder how much of the pitching stats you cited are due to what the pitchers are doing versus what the hitters are doing. What I mean is, when looking at the Royals offense, you (correctly, I think) focused on what they did when the opposing pitcher gave them a meatball. It seems to me that to a large extent, the variance from pitcher to pitcher is going to be noise based on who happened to make a mistake to Aaron Judge versus who made a mistake versus Kyle Higashioka. More relevant to me is the stat that you quoted in the next-to-last paragraph: "Yes they’ve been hit hard, but they’re tied for the ninth-lowest percentage of their pitches going over the heart of the plate." In other words, I don't care if you give up 1.000 SLG on middle-middle pitches if you've only thrown 3 of them all year.
Sure, some pitchers (i.e., the guys with sick stuff or who move the ball around enough to keep the hitter guessing) can survive in the middle of the zone a lot better than others, but it's better to not take your chances at all.
That's exactly why I came out of it a lot less worried about the pitching. The numbers on the whole are bad, but you're right. If you give up a home run 100% of the time you do something but you do it less than any team, it's something to look at but not a big deal. I'd have to dig in more on the actual hitters getting to them.
You do have to ask yourself though now if the Royals actually have the hitters that can take advantage of a meatball? I’d say Perez, I’ve seen enough from Witt Jr to think so….but other than that do they actually have anymore that can on a consistent basis? I think Dozier can….Benentendi has hit for average but nothing but singles it seems. Lopez, Merrifield, Taylor are more singles hitters. I’ve liked Melendez approach but its early. I expect the offense to pick up…..but I expect all the offenses to pick up so I don’t know how much overall improvement to expect comparatively. Is anyone else annoyed Cleveland is still around .500 and now seemingly found some offense?
I'd settle for singles at this point. I mean Merrifield is 4 for 48. I think any big league hitter can hit a meatball hard. They should be able to anyway. We know Salvy can, like you said. Benny can at least find some grass. BWJ should eventually get there. Melendez, as you noted and I've said before, has a nice approach. Maybe they get Pasquantino up. Honestly, the more you see guys from the system come up, the better the approach will become. What they're teaching down there is translating to success and hopefully it translates to the big leagues.
Nice analysis David! Man, it is a struggle to listen to Ryan and Rex right now. I had the game on silent in the background last night because I can’t stand listening to “how hard these guys are hitting the ball”. I….do…..not….care….. lol. They have the worst run differential in the American League so I don’t care how hard you are hitting the ball right now. I know they have to have positive things to say about the team as it is the job. I get it, but man it is hard to listen to. Those two desperately need a good game to talk about as well!
They do need a good game to talk about, but they also need to learn that you can criticize without being unfair. I think their excuses aren't entirely their fault. The organization has thin skin. Or at least people in it have had thin skin in the past and they have to answer to them every day. It makes it difficult, but also I don't need to hear about the terrible luck of Whit Merrifield (though that out in the ninth was legitimately bad luck) when his hard-hit rate is in the 23rd percentile or whatever it is now.
Thank you for pulling the numbers on this, it is something I have been noticing as well. I thought the pitching numbers would be worse because I keep telling people that "all of our mistakes are tagged, meanwhile we never take advantage of the other pitchers' mistakes." Maybe I need to walk that back a little. Or maybe I have been noticing it on fastballs and have been rationalizing away the breaking stuff because it might have at least thrown off the batter's timing (especially Grienke's slow curve). I don't know, either way it is frustrating. As a side note, the broadcast continuing to note that someone "just missed it" or "has been unlucky this year" is starting to wear very thin.
Yeah, the pitching really surprised me, though the fastball numbers are a mess. I like going into an article not knowing everything that I'll find. Nice little surprise sometimes!
And yes on the broadcast! Stop with the unlucky talk.
Great article. You do really good analysis. I often wonder if the club has the same information as you do. And if they do are they working on fixing the issues? Hopefully they do end up averaging out and we can go on a little winning streak soon. Because being 20 games out of 1st before June is not gonna be a fun summer.
Everything I have is completely free to the world, so I would hope they have it!
I’m sure they have this information….but finding the issue, acknowledging the issue, and then correcting the issue are all different beasts to tackle. If it was as easy as hey Whit, quit missing the meatballs….I’m sure it would have been addressed already. It also doesn’t help that correcting the issue could be different with 9 different guys and its not a one fix and all cured. That being said…..time for some changes fellas. If we played .500 ball the rest of the way we would be at 72 or so wins. Can they play .500 ball the rest of the way…….ewweeehhhhhhhhh.
Oh sure. And some of it is likely just a timing issue. While it's easy to diagnose, it's not so easy to fix. I don't know what the answer is (though there is probably enough video to try to find it on a guy like Whit). The good news is that your math is off a bit. If they play .500 the rest of the way, they end up at 76 or 77 wins.
Ahh your right. I just took 81-9. Anyway, math is hard. See, that changes the whole perspective because I’d take 76 wins before the season. However, my confidence they can play .500 ball the rest of the way is much lower than it was 4 weeks ago.
What's so frustrating is that if you showed someone the Royals roster without telling them how the season had gone so far, I'd wager they would say they're a 75-80 win team. That's not to say they can't get there. They had two long stretches of +.500 baseball last year. They started 29-26 and finished 38-35. They just went 7-27 in the middle.
This is kind of like how nothing else matters in basketball if you miss layups and free throws.
Damn, yes, that's exactly it.
I wonder how much of the pitching stats you cited are due to what the pitchers are doing versus what the hitters are doing. What I mean is, when looking at the Royals offense, you (correctly, I think) focused on what they did when the opposing pitcher gave them a meatball. It seems to me that to a large extent, the variance from pitcher to pitcher is going to be noise based on who happened to make a mistake to Aaron Judge versus who made a mistake versus Kyle Higashioka. More relevant to me is the stat that you quoted in the next-to-last paragraph: "Yes they’ve been hit hard, but they’re tied for the ninth-lowest percentage of their pitches going over the heart of the plate." In other words, I don't care if you give up 1.000 SLG on middle-middle pitches if you've only thrown 3 of them all year.
Sure, some pitchers (i.e., the guys with sick stuff or who move the ball around enough to keep the hitter guessing) can survive in the middle of the zone a lot better than others, but it's better to not take your chances at all.
That's exactly why I came out of it a lot less worried about the pitching. The numbers on the whole are bad, but you're right. If you give up a home run 100% of the time you do something but you do it less than any team, it's something to look at but not a big deal. I'd have to dig in more on the actual hitters getting to them.
You do have to ask yourself though now if the Royals actually have the hitters that can take advantage of a meatball? I’d say Perez, I’ve seen enough from Witt Jr to think so….but other than that do they actually have anymore that can on a consistent basis? I think Dozier can….Benentendi has hit for average but nothing but singles it seems. Lopez, Merrifield, Taylor are more singles hitters. I’ve liked Melendez approach but its early. I expect the offense to pick up…..but I expect all the offenses to pick up so I don’t know how much overall improvement to expect comparatively. Is anyone else annoyed Cleveland is still around .500 and now seemingly found some offense?
I'd settle for singles at this point. I mean Merrifield is 4 for 48. I think any big league hitter can hit a meatball hard. They should be able to anyway. We know Salvy can, like you said. Benny can at least find some grass. BWJ should eventually get there. Melendez, as you noted and I've said before, has a nice approach. Maybe they get Pasquantino up. Honestly, the more you see guys from the system come up, the better the approach will become. What they're teaching down there is translating to success and hopefully it translates to the big leagues.