What’s been interesting is that I find myself going back and forth with the roster going forward. There are times I feel like they could be .500 next year with just a top of the rotation piece with the offense they have in place. But then, there are times I’m looking and thinking even if they have a top of the rotation piece to pare with Singer….I don’t think that would be enough. Part of it I think is….its great we have all these young guys we want to see. But how many of them are a.) difference makers and b.) more valuable to the Royals than other teams. I think Witt Jr, Melendez, Vinny, and Perez are difference makers. That’s 4 out of 9 so its a good start. But then you have that large group of players that are not difference makers (at least not yet) and I’m sure the Royals value too highly compared to the rest of the league. I was probably 50/50 on .500 chances next year. As the year has gone on I think I’m more 40/60 now as I don’t see the pieces to trade so it all depends on money being spent. Which is fine….but the Royals don’t exactly bring home the top FA each year. People would be upset, but I wonder a little bit if Melendez wouldn’t be the one to go. Just with some of the late scratches and weird stuff with him. Something needs to be done with it. Like everyone else though, I’m not confident in this group to do it.
Thanks for the insight! Although a crowded roster, it's a good problem to have. With the talent, and those with the potential, I would think they can get middle of rotation starters. A couple on the list need to go as quick as possible.
What are your thoughts on the minor league pitching guru leaving? His choice or the teams? Was he feeling the heat from the lack of performance? Will this cascade to others leaving like Cal?
Appreciate the news on the young players. We don't get enough of that!
Also, its great to have options. But what I think we forget sometimes is are they GOOD options. Dozier, Mondesi, Taylor, are fine options. I don’t have a huge problem with any of them. But i wouldn’t exactly call them GOOD options either. They are serviceable except one who can’t stay on the field.
I enjoyed this very much. I think Dozier, Lopez, and Isbel will all be utility/bench guys. I think Melendez, Waters, and Eaton will be in the OF from left to right. Our infield will eventually be Pratto, Massey, Witt, and Garcia (3,4,5,6). And obviously Salvy will be the catcher until he can't walk or pick up a bat or something. I don't know if any of the other players will be able to bring back the type of pitching we need, so some of the players I mentioned might need to be traded. This is an excellent starting point and hopefully J.J. will have the guts to make the moves needed.
Good stuff, as always, David. I agree with a couple of other commenters that this is at least a nice problem to have, but as you say, a problem nonetheless. I can still reluctantly recall the years that guys played a position purely because they were the best of a bad lot. I want to see guys playing because they WON the job.
As you say, some of this will sort itself out as trades are made. The important part of that equation is determining which guys to trade, and holding on to the ones ready to contribute.
Another wild card is what happens come spring? Seems there is always a player or two that takes it to the next level in spring training and wins a job. Gentry, Eaton or Loftin tears it up and wins a spot. Mondesi or Olivares stays healthy and plays so well you have to start them. This is exactly why MJ is playing...he's catcher #2 but hits so well you can't keep him out of the lineup. Hopefully guys win jobs at all positions and you can keep players like Nicky, but on the bench. He would be a superb defensive replacement, pinch runner, even *shudder* bunter to advance the Manfred runner in extra innings.
A very good piece of work here. Whether through trades or other paths, I believe that there will be corrections to the over abundance of position players. Some of those decisions should be reasonably easy (coughcoughO’Hearncoughcough), others somewhat less so.
But perhaps the most unfortunate truth is that the Royals have reached a point where it is time to move on from Adalberto Mondesi. As exciting as he was when he was on the field, he’s spent far more time off of it. In 7 years in MLB, he has reached 250 AB only 3 times. His plate discipline is practically non-existent with a lifetime 4.4% walk rate against a 30.2% K rate. His greatest success came when his BABIP numbers were in the .350 range - not a sustainable rate for anyone.
His base stealing is very exciting, as is his power. But he has to be on the field to show either, and that’s not something that he has been able to do. IIRC, he is a FA at the end of the year, and while I am sure that there will be 1 or more teams who are willing to take a chance on him, I’m reasonably convinced that the Royals should NOT be one of them.
Great article David. It looks oh so apparent we have too many decent players, but not enough difference makers except for Salvy, MJM, BWJr, Vinny, and maybe NP. Those non difference maker are also not going to back a difference maker in a trade. It looks like they are going to have to trade some good pitching prospects to get some difference makers in a trade. Plus have to spend some money!!!!!!
Great analysis, I don’t see a future for Dozier as much as I think he is better defensively than given credit for, this may be his last month in baseball. Thanks for keeping O’Hearn off of the list. I’d say goodbye to Isbel, Mondesi, Taylor, O’Hearn to begin with. Missing Fermin at catcher. Are you going to do a pitching and coaching analysis?
One way to approach this problem is to design the ideal starting lineup and then figure out which of the other pieces have enough trade value to help fill the gaps on the pitching staff. That said, I don't think there's any number of Massey and Waters and Olivares types who are going to bring back a true, MLB ready #1 starter, so let's assume (for the sake of this exercise) that John Sherman is more of a Mr. Peabody (i.e., inventive) and finds the cash to sign somebody good.
Here's my first crack at next year's lineup, in positional order:
C Salvy/MJ*
1B Pratto/Vinnie*
2B Massey
3B Witt Jr.
SS Mondesi/Garcia**
RF Waters
CF Taylor
LF Olivares
DH Vinnie/Salvy*
Bench: [______], Nicky, Isbel***
*Salvy should not catch every day because he's a much better hitter when he's not worn out from catching every day. Getting him to not catch every day has to be a challenge the manager is willing to handle. When he's not catching, he's DH; when Salvy is DH, I'd want Vinnie to still be in the lineup at 1B, which means Pratto is either taking an OF spot (preferably) or is on the bench.
**This assumes Mondy is available on Opening Day and that Garcia is ready to step in when/if Mondy is hurt. Mondy will need regular days off, which is one reason it's great to have Lopez on the bench.
***Nicky Lopez' highest and best use is probably as a defensive replacement/pinch runner/infield utility player. I'd love to keep him to fill that role but if someone thinks they can unlock more offense and is willing to offer any value, I'd take that deal. The same is true about Kyle Isbel with respect to the outfield. They're both highly expendable in my mind. I'm afraid the empty slot on the bench is going to be filled by Hunter Dozier because no one will take him; that probably wouldn't be the worst thing ever as long as the manager doesn't feel like he needs to be getting regular starts because he's a vet who is getting paid more than 80% of the lineup.
One of my top priorities with this team would be ensuring that BWJr., MJ, Vinnie, Pratto, Massey, Waters and especially Garcia each get as many at bats as possible (for Garcia, that means staying in Omaha until needed). Their development has been rushed somewhat and they need to keep building a volume of time in the box.
This leaves Samad Taylor, Nick Loftin, Tyler Gentry, and Nate Eaton from your list. I'd rather have Eaton on the bench than Dozier at the end of the season/playoffs, but in the meantime, he needs to be playing every day somewhere.
The nice thing about this roster is that anyone can be traded if the offer is right, because there's talent available to move in to fill their slot. It would take an awful lot in return (in other words, more than anyone is likely to offer) to convince me to trade BWJr. or MJ; everyone else is pretty much fair game (albeit for the right price).
I believe part of the mass confusion of this roster is the FO penchant for positional versatility. Obviously some versatility is good, particularly on the bench. But too much of it can lead to: endless variations and combinations that pose more problems than solutions as mentioned in your article, managerial over-management, and most importantly defensive positional mediocrity due to continual flip flopping players all over the field. The FO has had this propensity imho because they poorly construct a roster, plan for nothing, refuse to jettison players of little value, and are more concerned with intangibles in players than talent.
"I think there's a chance that Moore isn't part of any decisions" - Hmmm.....
David, could you write that part about 978 times in a row? I think I'm starting to feel better already! 😸 And it's way too early for all these meds and dietary changes to have done me any good! Clearly, you must be the responsible party!
Crowded yes, but how many of those guys are the kind of players that give you a chance to compete consistently for a division championship, There's gonna have to be several that make major leaps (50 point increase in BA?) in production to be really competitive.
Is that realistic? (Asking for a friend whos even less knowledgeable than me). lol
In my completely unknowledgeable opinion only Witt Jr. is currently in that category.
And oh by the way, this doesn't have anything to do with the pitching or lack thereof.
YEESH! Is it just me, or is it really humiliating that all five pitchers the royals used in a game in mid-September had era's of 5.08 or worse before the game started?!?!?!
I know that some folks would consider that a hopelessly old-school way of looking at things. I consider it a particularly clear-eyed, objective glance at what Matheny and company sent out to the mound Saturday.
What’s been interesting is that I find myself going back and forth with the roster going forward. There are times I feel like they could be .500 next year with just a top of the rotation piece with the offense they have in place. But then, there are times I’m looking and thinking even if they have a top of the rotation piece to pare with Singer….I don’t think that would be enough. Part of it I think is….its great we have all these young guys we want to see. But how many of them are a.) difference makers and b.) more valuable to the Royals than other teams. I think Witt Jr, Melendez, Vinny, and Perez are difference makers. That’s 4 out of 9 so its a good start. But then you have that large group of players that are not difference makers (at least not yet) and I’m sure the Royals value too highly compared to the rest of the league. I was probably 50/50 on .500 chances next year. As the year has gone on I think I’m more 40/60 now as I don’t see the pieces to trade so it all depends on money being spent. Which is fine….but the Royals don’t exactly bring home the top FA each year. People would be upset, but I wonder a little bit if Melendez wouldn’t be the one to go. Just with some of the late scratches and weird stuff with him. Something needs to be done with it. Like everyone else though, I’m not confident in this group to do it.
Thanks for the insight! Although a crowded roster, it's a good problem to have. With the talent, and those with the potential, I would think they can get middle of rotation starters. A couple on the list need to go as quick as possible.
What are your thoughts on the minor league pitching guru leaving? His choice or the teams? Was he feeling the heat from the lack of performance? Will this cascade to others leaving like Cal?
Appreciate the news on the young players. We don't get enough of that!
Also, its great to have options. But what I think we forget sometimes is are they GOOD options. Dozier, Mondesi, Taylor, are fine options. I don’t have a huge problem with any of them. But i wouldn’t exactly call them GOOD options either. They are serviceable except one who can’t stay on the field.
I enjoyed this very much. I think Dozier, Lopez, and Isbel will all be utility/bench guys. I think Melendez, Waters, and Eaton will be in the OF from left to right. Our infield will eventually be Pratto, Massey, Witt, and Garcia (3,4,5,6). And obviously Salvy will be the catcher until he can't walk or pick up a bat or something. I don't know if any of the other players will be able to bring back the type of pitching we need, so some of the players I mentioned might need to be traded. This is an excellent starting point and hopefully J.J. will have the guts to make the moves needed.
Good stuff, as always, David. I agree with a couple of other commenters that this is at least a nice problem to have, but as you say, a problem nonetheless. I can still reluctantly recall the years that guys played a position purely because they were the best of a bad lot. I want to see guys playing because they WON the job.
As you say, some of this will sort itself out as trades are made. The important part of that equation is determining which guys to trade, and holding on to the ones ready to contribute.
Another wild card is what happens come spring? Seems there is always a player or two that takes it to the next level in spring training and wins a job. Gentry, Eaton or Loftin tears it up and wins a spot. Mondesi or Olivares stays healthy and plays so well you have to start them. This is exactly why MJ is playing...he's catcher #2 but hits so well you can't keep him out of the lineup. Hopefully guys win jobs at all positions and you can keep players like Nicky, but on the bench. He would be a superb defensive replacement, pinch runner, even *shudder* bunter to advance the Manfred runner in extra innings.
A very good piece of work here. Whether through trades or other paths, I believe that there will be corrections to the over abundance of position players. Some of those decisions should be reasonably easy (coughcoughO’Hearncoughcough), others somewhat less so.
But perhaps the most unfortunate truth is that the Royals have reached a point where it is time to move on from Adalberto Mondesi. As exciting as he was when he was on the field, he’s spent far more time off of it. In 7 years in MLB, he has reached 250 AB only 3 times. His plate discipline is practically non-existent with a lifetime 4.4% walk rate against a 30.2% K rate. His greatest success came when his BABIP numbers were in the .350 range - not a sustainable rate for anyone.
His base stealing is very exciting, as is his power. But he has to be on the field to show either, and that’s not something that he has been able to do. IIRC, he is a FA at the end of the year, and while I am sure that there will be 1 or more teams who are willing to take a chance on him, I’m reasonably convinced that the Royals should NOT be one of them.
Great article David. It looks oh so apparent we have too many decent players, but not enough difference makers except for Salvy, MJM, BWJr, Vinny, and maybe NP. Those non difference maker are also not going to back a difference maker in a trade. It looks like they are going to have to trade some good pitching prospects to get some difference makers in a trade. Plus have to spend some money!!!!!!
Great analysis, I don’t see a future for Dozier as much as I think he is better defensively than given credit for, this may be his last month in baseball. Thanks for keeping O’Hearn off of the list. I’d say goodbye to Isbel, Mondesi, Taylor, O’Hearn to begin with. Missing Fermin at catcher. Are you going to do a pitching and coaching analysis?
One way to approach this problem is to design the ideal starting lineup and then figure out which of the other pieces have enough trade value to help fill the gaps on the pitching staff. That said, I don't think there's any number of Massey and Waters and Olivares types who are going to bring back a true, MLB ready #1 starter, so let's assume (for the sake of this exercise) that John Sherman is more of a Mr. Peabody (i.e., inventive) and finds the cash to sign somebody good.
Here's my first crack at next year's lineup, in positional order:
C Salvy/MJ*
1B Pratto/Vinnie*
2B Massey
3B Witt Jr.
SS Mondesi/Garcia**
RF Waters
CF Taylor
LF Olivares
DH Vinnie/Salvy*
Bench: [______], Nicky, Isbel***
*Salvy should not catch every day because he's a much better hitter when he's not worn out from catching every day. Getting him to not catch every day has to be a challenge the manager is willing to handle. When he's not catching, he's DH; when Salvy is DH, I'd want Vinnie to still be in the lineup at 1B, which means Pratto is either taking an OF spot (preferably) or is on the bench.
**This assumes Mondy is available on Opening Day and that Garcia is ready to step in when/if Mondy is hurt. Mondy will need regular days off, which is one reason it's great to have Lopez on the bench.
***Nicky Lopez' highest and best use is probably as a defensive replacement/pinch runner/infield utility player. I'd love to keep him to fill that role but if someone thinks they can unlock more offense and is willing to offer any value, I'd take that deal. The same is true about Kyle Isbel with respect to the outfield. They're both highly expendable in my mind. I'm afraid the empty slot on the bench is going to be filled by Hunter Dozier because no one will take him; that probably wouldn't be the worst thing ever as long as the manager doesn't feel like he needs to be getting regular starts because he's a vet who is getting paid more than 80% of the lineup.
One of my top priorities with this team would be ensuring that BWJr., MJ, Vinnie, Pratto, Massey, Waters and especially Garcia each get as many at bats as possible (for Garcia, that means staying in Omaha until needed). Their development has been rushed somewhat and they need to keep building a volume of time in the box.
This leaves Samad Taylor, Nick Loftin, Tyler Gentry, and Nate Eaton from your list. I'd rather have Eaton on the bench than Dozier at the end of the season/playoffs, but in the meantime, he needs to be playing every day somewhere.
The nice thing about this roster is that anyone can be traded if the offer is right, because there's talent available to move in to fill their slot. It would take an awful lot in return (in other words, more than anyone is likely to offer) to convince me to trade BWJr. or MJ; everyone else is pretty much fair game (albeit for the right price).
I believe part of the mass confusion of this roster is the FO penchant for positional versatility. Obviously some versatility is good, particularly on the bench. But too much of it can lead to: endless variations and combinations that pose more problems than solutions as mentioned in your article, managerial over-management, and most importantly defensive positional mediocrity due to continual flip flopping players all over the field. The FO has had this propensity imho because they poorly construct a roster, plan for nothing, refuse to jettison players of little value, and are more concerned with intangibles in players than talent.
"I think there's a chance that Moore isn't part of any decisions" - Hmmm.....
David, could you write that part about 978 times in a row? I think I'm starting to feel better already! 😸 And it's way too early for all these meds and dietary changes to have done me any good! Clearly, you must be the responsible party!
Hehehe - I think there was a minor typo where, after Mondesi's name, it said options N/A.
I believe that it should have said "options: punt" but there is a very small chance that I'm wrong on that point. A VERY small chance.
Crowded yes, but how many of those guys are the kind of players that give you a chance to compete consistently for a division championship, There's gonna have to be several that make major leaps (50 point increase in BA?) in production to be really competitive.
Is that realistic? (Asking for a friend whos even less knowledgeable than me). lol
In my completely unknowledgeable opinion only Witt Jr. is currently in that category.
And oh by the way, this doesn't have anything to do with the pitching or lack thereof.
YEESH! Is it just me, or is it really humiliating that all five pitchers the royals used in a game in mid-September had era's of 5.08 or worse before the game started?!?!?!
I know that some folks would consider that a hopelessly old-school way of looking at things. I consider it a particularly clear-eyed, objective glance at what Matheny and company sent out to the mound Saturday.
Any thoughts on Grenke as pitching coach after dingbat hopefully gets fired?