49 Comments

Offense being good….I can’t get there yet. But, this is more what I expected this year so I’m at least happy to see that. Massey, Melendez, Pratto….just keep giving them at bats so we can actually find out what is real and what isn’t. I don’t see the depth of lineup yet after Witt, Vinny and Salvy….but if that’s what this year is about…I’m fine with the ups and downs. At least they are entertaining right now.

This is not a negative in any way. Just something I was thinking about the other day. I know when new coaches were brought in…I think you had a scout tell you new coaches were worth 10 wins. I was resistant to that thinking at the time….but as spring hope brought eternal optimism I started buying that more and more. Now it’s only May 11th….but I’m willing to say at this point that coaches are never worth 10 wins. It still clearly comes down to players. And I’m sure there are probably examples of a new coach coming in and a team improving 10 wins….so it’s not impossible…but I think that scout was overestimating the overall talent on the roster. I bring that up because I’m tired of watching Keller. Lol….But I get it. Who else are they going to throw? You might as well use up his arm. But raid the zone….he doesn’t, can’t, idk what it is. But nothing is more frustrating starting the game walking guys, then scoring 4 runs and then having him come in and immediately walk the first guy. I just don’t think Sweeney/Q have that big an impact on already established guys is what this experiment is showing early.

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The offense will definitely go through down stretches. They all do. Heck, the Rays just scored six runs in a series against the Orioles, who the Royals scored six in every game against. But where I'm so encouraged is that the batted ball data that was so positive when they weren't making enough contact is still incredibly positive. They're not *this* good because nobody is, but they have shown me at least that it's sustainable to some extent.

As for the 10 wins thing. I'm not going to say much, but it wasn't a scout and it was more about Matheny/Eldred than anyone who they brought in. So it's not about Q and Co. being worth 10 wins as much as the previous guys being so bad that they cost wins. Maybe they're worth -7 but the new coaches are worth 3. I don't know. But that's what he meant when he told me that. I also thought it was crazy and still do, but I also believe Matheny and Eldred were horrific at their jobs, so I believe they cost the team 10 wins.

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Sure, and I’m not trying to get caught up in the 10 wins specifically. I think Eldred wasn’t good as well. But what I love about this experiment is that you are getting definitive answers finally. Maybe it’s too early to come to conclusions and I would listen to that. But for like Keller. Eldred didn’t make him better, Sweeney hasn’t made him any better. I’m ready to say it not a coaching issue, it’s a player issue with him. Actually, you look at the roster on the pitching side…and you start to think…ehhh maybe it wasn’t entirely an Eldred issue. I can see your head explode now. LOL

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Oh absolutely. And I even wrote that Eldred wasn't the *only* problem with this particular staff, but they were never going to get anyone better with him moving forward. I also think it's very easy to miss some of the big changes we've seen in pitchers because of some guys either regressing or staying stagnant.

Aroldis Chapman is the biggest feather in their cap to this point, but Josh Staumont at a 36.6% strikeout rate with his walk rate (barely) below 10% is big. Carlos Hernandez actually using his stuff to strike guys out is huge. Jose Cuas with a 28.2% strikeout rate to 7% walk rate after it was 18.9% and 13.3% last year is big. Singer right now looks bad for them, but maybe we overrated 13 Singer starts last year? Coleman is rough right now, so they're clearly not perfect, but there are good signs. I also think we're seeing changes in the whole organizational philosophy. I know that's not what you were getting at, but I do think it's going to take more than 38 games to see the changes that have been made pay dividends.

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Agreed, but my issue (not with you) with the everyone gets better theory is that you see this every year regardless of coaching. “See this” as in players improve, players decline, etc. Relievers in particular are fickle. So 4 relievers improving when your #2 falls off a cliff is a wash to me…..but I know what you mean…..and a 4 to 1 ratio isn’t a bad ratio. When people say, well our plan is for everyone to improve…my head literally explodes because that’s not how it works. I’m actually close with this experiment of saying….I don’t care what happens at the MLB level with these guys now. Fix what you can even if its marginal improvement, try to bring in some some new talent….but I care more about how you are improving guys at the AA level and lower…which we’ve seen good signs from. But maybe that’s just being a Royals fan these days. Probably not enough time yet to say that definitely.

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That's already where I am. I don't care if they fix Keller or if they can get more out of Lyles or whatever. Singer/Lynch/whatever guy with plenty of service time matters still, of course, but I'm interested in what is happening in the minors with their philosophies and the results are encouraging. There'll be bad starts, but we're seeing Kudrna get on track now too to go along with Veneziano, Marsh (he had a rough one yesterday), Mozzicato, Sandlin, Panzini, Barnett, etc. That part is where I'm very encouraged. They'll all eventually get bumped a level and we'll see what that does, but the early returns are positive.

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I actually fully expect Singer to get it figured out. In fact, this is a big test for the coaching staff. You can have a rough two months…it will happen with players…but they need to get it figured out with him. He won’t have as good of numbers as last year…but I fully expect them to get it figured out. I would say, it’s a red flag if they don’t to me.

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I think the big point that has me excited is that they talked to him about changing the shape of his slider, he was open to it and they did it quickly. But I also think it's important to remember that he was below average in 2021 and then had a 4.85 ERA in nine starts after the first two were great last year. I don't know where the outlier is.

And I will also caution you with this. No one player should ever be a red flag for any coach.

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I am apparently strongly influenced by Lesky as I was about to same thing before seeing his reply- the old coaching may have cost them ten wins. Compelling point that the established guys may not be as influenced by the new coaching. If the rumors are true (and haven't heard anyone saying they aren't) it was a negative vibe in the clubhouse. After dealing our better established guys last year, I think a more positive vibe and support would help the younger guys. Something has to be clicking in the clubhouse, and it may just be player chemistry, for this whole team to keep battling every game and turn that abysmal April hitting around.

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I think that Keller had good fortune rain down on him in the first inning and he took that and parlayed it into a decent outing. After he walked the first two batters on 10 pitches, Andrew Vaughn grounded into a double play on what looked to be a hanging, 84 MPH curve ball. Yes, Brad still walked two more after that (and one scored), but maybe it was the beginning of something for him.

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The White Sox ineptitude helped him quite a bit. Luis Robert really bailed him out with some of the pitches he swung at. But, to his credit, he got through it.

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Yes. Robert looked completely lost last night, which is weird, because it seems that he had been whacking the ball coming into the game. Still didn't stop him from making a spectacular catch to rob Eaton (poor dude).

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Man, I should have talked about Eaton. He could have easily had two hits last night. At least he worked a walk. I feel bad for the guy. He's likely getting the boot when Waters is back, but I want him to have some success in the worst way.

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Who do you see getting the start in Yarborough's spot. I would think it is time to give Austin Cox. He looked good in those 2 innings the other day. And by the way, he's 26 years old. The time is now, so to speak!!!!

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Unless someone gets hurt, he can't come up because he hasn't been down long enough, so I'm guessing it'll end up being Max Castillo in some capacity, whether he throws a few innings to start or comes in after an opener.

I'm sure the Royals wouldn't be too broken up if they don't play today so they can kick that can down the road.

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How long does he have to stay down?

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It's 15 days for pitchers unless they're replacing an injured player on the big league roster. I was a little surprised he didn't come up for Yarbrough so he could make the start, but once he didn't, that was that.

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Things that nobody ever said, ever: "....with a physique as perfect as Lance Lynn's...."

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I've watched and stayed quiet so far this year as I've frustratingly witnessed, yet another Royals team, struggle out of the gates. During that time, I've primarily been tracking one stat the most; wins and losses. You are what your record says you are after all - particularly if we're almost at the quarter pole.

14 and 24 last year vs. 11 and 27 this year. I think most of us agree that last year's roster was worse on paper than this team being straddled with Ryan, Carlos, etc. I think we also agree that last year's Coaching staff was worse with MM and Cal. Last year's team had some good luck and some bad luck, and this team has had the same.

Yet, here we are, three games worse than last year and on pace for a whopping 54 wins, 11 less than last year.

What gives?

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I'm going to give two answers most people don't like - random variance and the schedule.

The offense struggled early while the pitching looked okay. The pitching dropped off when the offense picked up. The sequencing has generally been bad.

And the schedule was brutal. Until the A's came to town, the Royals had played 32 games and 29 were against teams over .500. Now, they contributed to those wins, but their opponents up to the A's series have the following win percentages this year:

.541

.568

.444

.611

.676

.611

.526

.541

.541

.649

They won one series in that group. Against the .444 winning percentage. They're now 5-4 against teams under .500 this season. It feels like an excuse, and I don't think this is a good team by any stretch, but they played a freaking brutal schedule. They also faced some incredible pitching. There are currently 71 pitchers who qualify for the ERA title. In 13 of their first 29 games, they faced someone in the top-30 for fWAR. It was rough and they played terribly, but you can't tell me that didn't impact things.

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I love logical answers and I'm tracking your logic. Bad, hell even mediocre teams don't beat good teams for a good percentage of the time or the categories for those teams would get switched.

Now please make us all feel better and tell me that the rest of the schedule gets much more forgiving.

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I mean, it kind of already has, right? The road trip they're about to go on is tough with Milwaukee and San Diego, but then they go to Chicago to see this White Sox team again and then it's the Tigers (playing very well right now), Nationals, Cardinals, Rockies and Marlins before they face Baltimore for three and then it's Cincy. It gets tough in the middle of June. They get the Angels, Rays, Guardians, Dodgers, Twins and Guardians before the break with three against the Tigers mixed in.

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Haha - good point. So let's keep the line moving and the W's coming. A win streak makes everything better!

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It really does!

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Maybe Keller was tipping his new pitches and the A's picked up on that and he hasn't gotten it ironed out in between starts?

If Pratto becomes a regular, look out. We'll really have something going then!

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He may have been, or he may have just had no clue where they were going and too many ended in spots to hit.

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Wow Keller was hard to watch, I am sure everybody was ready for the sox to tie it back up, but as you said "Ultimately, he finds himself lucky"

Have to give you props for consistently mentioning that the offense was just unlucky for a while (and will take with a grain of salt that they probably aren't this good)

And I know you sort of addressed this in a comment, but I was definitely curious what you thought of those PAs of Eaton. I thought they would play him today after last nights performance. He is certainly fun to watch on defense. 264/331/387 was serviceable last year, but obviously the numbers stink now. But if he can show some real progress before waters is back any chance they send Dozier away instead? My 6 weeks of giving Dozier benefit of the doubt ends Saturday

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I thought he might get a shot to play again, but they set their lineups based on the opposing pitcher more than anything and I'd imagine they don't think it's a great matchup for him against Clevinger right now, so I'm fine with it. I don't think Dozier is the move for Waters, but I do think he's the move for Lopez when he comes back.

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ah yes that all makes sense. Thank you for the quick replies and knowledgeable info as always

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Still too many walks by pitchers, but the offense, as you have noted, is looking so much better. Some clutch hitting that they were missing for several weeks. Gotta love these Royals. Thank you as always, David.

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Good to see Massey in a better direction, but one thing is for sure: the guy has simply hit at every level. Demonstrated skills are usually demonstrated for a reason, unless you're Bob Hamelin, so you had to believe Massey would change course.

Seeing chatter about Chapman as a trade candidate, and while early, I wonder what he could fetch. Rosenthal got Olivares and eventually Coleman, so there's precedent that a reliever trade parlay could hit. Fingers crossed that 1) Chapman stays 'healthy, 2) Chapman maintains a K rate of > 35%, and 3) JJ can flip him for potential and not simply 'serviceable parts'. [see also: Stein, Blake]

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I don’t think you’ll see Chapman moved for a bit, even though there’s obvious interest. Competition makes deals better for the selling team and teams are still figuring out their bullpens so there isn’t a lot of active talking just yet. But I would say he could go any time after Memorial Day and, yeah, as long as he’s still showing what he’s shown, he’ll likely get a pretty solid return.

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Drew Waters replacing Bradley and or Isbel gives some hope for another decent bat to round out the lineup. He'll be up soon.

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I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him for the White Sox series next week, though maybe not until the start of the next homestand.

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You're right tho. The Royals almost never have .900+ OPS top of the league sluggers, although Vinnie may actually be that guy. Regardless, the key to the Royals competing on offense is production up and down the lineup. Since 15, we've had black holes in the lineup where the offense just disappears. In April, it was pretty close to half of the lineup. Remarkable turnaround. Part of it I think is a young team against premier SP and not having the confidence. They got it going against lesser competition. Hopefully that translates against top starters in the future. Great starting pitchers are great for a reason but you have to figure out a way to compete.

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Cease and Lance Lynn aren't exactly chopped liver, until just recently.

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I think Vinnie is that guy, for what it's worth. He's an incredible hitter. But yeah, they do need to figure out how to hit these top of the rotation starters because if they ever get where they want to go, they'll need to get through them. So maybe the start to this year is a great learning experience for them.

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Just want to say I love how active the comments are here. This is high praise for something that lives on the internet. Harkens back to RoyalBoard and FanHome.

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Oh man, the message board days.

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So close to being balanced… bats are hot… now just need enough pitching to stay in the game.

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And now Kennedy is DFA’d… another guy to help KC win 6-5 ballgames. Seriously, his peripherals aren’t bad and his BABIP is sky-high. :)

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2 more hitters would be great, but how about just one-scary, true DH to bring in tonight? I love Vinnie and Salvy, who I am sure make the pitchers concerned; but wouldn't it be great to have one bada** intro song playing when THE DH came up to make the pitcher sweat? FWIW I don't think Salvy was the call there - cold and day after 33 bday celebration? no way. Loved the call to have Fermin bunt, but probably just bc it worked. Still don't think Salvy was the go to either way. Dreaming of the day we will have a go to scary bat and loving that we beat the sox for so many reasons. Back to nail biting tomorrow

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I missed this yesterday, and while they can always use two additional guys, I'm both not sure who it would be if he's a DH and also how that would fit on the team. If you're counting on Pasquantino and Pratto and Salvy isn't catching every day, the DH spot is pretty well covered. Plus, Vinnie has the 12th best wRC+ in all of baseball among hitters with 450+ plate appearances since his debut. That's a pretty scary bat!

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