Love the work the guys at Royals Farm Report do. I do feel like they sometimes sell guys a bit….but it didn’t help that essentially ALL the young guys that came up last year struggled right away. It’s a tough league but there is plenty of at least league average arms on the way. David, lie to me and tell me that after this year…..the royals will go get that top of the rotation starter we need even if it hurts! Sounds like everyone is talking again. Surely, we will get to some baseball now.
David, thank you for shining a light on the development staff that the Royals have employed. For years this was a huge frustration for those of us who follow the minor leaguers. Some fans even called for Dayton to be fired because of the development problems. Both the pitching and hitting side should give all fans excitement for the future. I feel like we can have a pipeline like Tampa has developed. As a small market, the organization needs to behave this way if they want to compete for division titles in most years. But like Tampa has done, the Royals need to be smart about extending the young talent early so they can keep the core players in KC longer. I know you have written about this also David, but the Royals need to take the next step as an organization and extend BWJ for 10 to 12 years like Wander Franco was and they need to pick a couple of pitchers to extend as well. If MJM shows that last season was not a fluke he will need a long-term extension as well. The Royals like to build up the middle and now they need to extend those up the middle stars that are developing. The corner players can come and go, but up the middle players with bats like BWJ, MJM, Massey, Loftin are hard to find. Let keep them in royal blue for as long as possible.
So David, do you think that the front office and ownership have the stones to be aggressive with some of these players and assume the risks that come with long-term extensions?
They've shown plenty of times that they'll give out long-term extensions. And there were times it didn't get done that they tried to do like with Hosmer at one point. So it's important to remember that it taks two to tango.
A guy like Witt, for example, is tricky. Look at Wander Franco. He got a nice international bonus at 16, but I'm assuming he doesn't have a dad who made more than $21 million in his career. While he maybe left a little on the table, he doesn't already have generational wealth. Witt does. So I would assume they'll continue to push for long-term deals, but the nice thing about having an actually productive farm system is that if they don't get it done for whatever reason, they should theoretically have more on the way.
I know the front office has tried to extend players who are arbitration eligible, but I can't recall them extending players with 0 - 2 years of time. This would be a shift. Also regarding BWJ, I think they have to do something huge with him. You are right a 6 year $50M deal wont likely get it done. They need to offer 10-14 years and $200M. Even a kid with a $7M signing bonus will have a hard time turning down that much in guarantees. This would likey be a complex contract with escalators and bonuses based on performance and maybe an option somewhere for the club in case they want out of the last few years of the deal. I just don't know if the Royals are confident enough to be out on an early trend financially. They are usually conservative with money.
That's true. Off the top of my head, Escobar, Salvy and Ventura are the only three they've gotten it done with. Maybe I'm missing someone, but it's not too many. It's something I agree they should explore, but something that big for Witt before he plays a single game is such a huge risk. I would imagine that unless he has an MVP-type year that he could be had for a similar deal after 2022 also. I think you'd be more likely to see something with Pratto or Melendez than Witt just because it wouldn't take such a massive deal.
I know it is a dream to think the Royals would do something so bold as sign a mega-talent like BWJ to a career contract before he plays his 1st MLB game. But I am basing this all on Wander Franco's deal with Tampa. Wander played in 70 games in 2020 and then signed a 11 year $182M guaranteed deal with $3M escalators in the back half of the contract for MVP awards.
I think the Royals have more leverage now rather than waiting until after Bobby's first season. I can imagine a deal being agreed to like this: 13 years $200M. Paid out in a way that allows the Royals to build a team around Bobby every year. Yearly payouts like this: first 6 years - $1M, $2.5M, $5M, $16M, $16M, $16M. Maybe placing a club option to get out now with a $8M buyout. The final 7 years are all $20.5M per year. This is a bargain rate for a superstar shortstop that comes by taking on risk and paying more in the front 6 years. This contract averages a little under $15.4M per season. Franco's deal averages a little over $16.5M per season. Maybe they can even get it done for a little less than this. I think BWJ would think long and hard about it. This would be very hard to turn down. And think about how affordable Bobby's salary will look in those back 7 years when prices are so much higher than today. Corey Seager just signed for an average of $32.5M, Lindor signed for an average of $34.1, Correa wants $30M or more, etc. This makes a lot of sense for the Royals to set themselves up for the future by assuming a bit of risk.
I love the word pipeline. Means we hopefully won't be years of frustrating on field play.
Love the work the guys at Royals Farm Report do. I do feel like they sometimes sell guys a bit….but it didn’t help that essentially ALL the young guys that came up last year struggled right away. It’s a tough league but there is plenty of at least league average arms on the way. David, lie to me and tell me that after this year…..the royals will go get that top of the rotation starter we need even if it hurts! Sounds like everyone is talking again. Surely, we will get to some baseball now.
I would assume that if one of the young arms doesn't step up, they'll go figure out a way to get that leader in the rotation.
David, thank you for shining a light on the development staff that the Royals have employed. For years this was a huge frustration for those of us who follow the minor leaguers. Some fans even called for Dayton to be fired because of the development problems. Both the pitching and hitting side should give all fans excitement for the future. I feel like we can have a pipeline like Tampa has developed. As a small market, the organization needs to behave this way if they want to compete for division titles in most years. But like Tampa has done, the Royals need to be smart about extending the young talent early so they can keep the core players in KC longer. I know you have written about this also David, but the Royals need to take the next step as an organization and extend BWJ for 10 to 12 years like Wander Franco was and they need to pick a couple of pitchers to extend as well. If MJM shows that last season was not a fluke he will need a long-term extension as well. The Royals like to build up the middle and now they need to extend those up the middle stars that are developing. The corner players can come and go, but up the middle players with bats like BWJ, MJM, Massey, Loftin are hard to find. Let keep them in royal blue for as long as possible.
So David, do you think that the front office and ownership have the stones to be aggressive with some of these players and assume the risks that come with long-term extensions?
They've shown plenty of times that they'll give out long-term extensions. And there were times it didn't get done that they tried to do like with Hosmer at one point. So it's important to remember that it taks two to tango.
A guy like Witt, for example, is tricky. Look at Wander Franco. He got a nice international bonus at 16, but I'm assuming he doesn't have a dad who made more than $21 million in his career. While he maybe left a little on the table, he doesn't already have generational wealth. Witt does. So I would assume they'll continue to push for long-term deals, but the nice thing about having an actually productive farm system is that if they don't get it done for whatever reason, they should theoretically have more on the way.
I know the front office has tried to extend players who are arbitration eligible, but I can't recall them extending players with 0 - 2 years of time. This would be a shift. Also regarding BWJ, I think they have to do something huge with him. You are right a 6 year $50M deal wont likely get it done. They need to offer 10-14 years and $200M. Even a kid with a $7M signing bonus will have a hard time turning down that much in guarantees. This would likey be a complex contract with escalators and bonuses based on performance and maybe an option somewhere for the club in case they want out of the last few years of the deal. I just don't know if the Royals are confident enough to be out on an early trend financially. They are usually conservative with money.
That's true. Off the top of my head, Escobar, Salvy and Ventura are the only three they've gotten it done with. Maybe I'm missing someone, but it's not too many. It's something I agree they should explore, but something that big for Witt before he plays a single game is such a huge risk. I would imagine that unless he has an MVP-type year that he could be had for a similar deal after 2022 also. I think you'd be more likely to see something with Pratto or Melendez than Witt just because it wouldn't take such a massive deal.
I know it is a dream to think the Royals would do something so bold as sign a mega-talent like BWJ to a career contract before he plays his 1st MLB game. But I am basing this all on Wander Franco's deal with Tampa. Wander played in 70 games in 2020 and then signed a 11 year $182M guaranteed deal with $3M escalators in the back half of the contract for MVP awards.
I think the Royals have more leverage now rather than waiting until after Bobby's first season. I can imagine a deal being agreed to like this: 13 years $200M. Paid out in a way that allows the Royals to build a team around Bobby every year. Yearly payouts like this: first 6 years - $1M, $2.5M, $5M, $16M, $16M, $16M. Maybe placing a club option to get out now with a $8M buyout. The final 7 years are all $20.5M per year. This is a bargain rate for a superstar shortstop that comes by taking on risk and paying more in the front 6 years. This contract averages a little under $15.4M per season. Franco's deal averages a little over $16.5M per season. Maybe they can even get it done for a little less than this. I think BWJ would think long and hard about it. This would be very hard to turn down. And think about how affordable Bobby's salary will look in those back 7 years when prices are so much higher than today. Corey Seager just signed for an average of $32.5M, Lindor signed for an average of $34.1, Correa wants $30M or more, etc. This makes a lot of sense for the Royals to set themselves up for the future by assuming a bit of risk.