Trade Deadline Roster Breakdown

It's a lot more fun to be buyers, but let’s look at EVERY player on the 40-man to see who is likely to go.

We are officially 10 days from the 2021 MLB Trade Deadline. Yes, that’s right, it’s happening on July 30 this year rather than July 31 because that’s a weekend day and the MLB offices don’t want to have to pay weekend rates for their employees to approve deals. Okay fine, maybe that’s not exactly the reason, but you also can’t convince me it’s not part of the reason. And after a strong April, we thought we might be talking about pieces the Royals could be looking for to supplement their roster toward a playoff push. Instead, they’re floundering in last place and are once again in the position of having contenders picking through their roster like it’s the bargain video game bin at Walmart.

The real conundrum the Royals face here is that they don’t have very many good players who other teams would want. If they had more of those players, their record would likely be better and we might be having a very different conversation. I’ve heard a lot of people lament that Jorge Soler’s season has cost the Royals the chance to trade him for anything of value. But if he was having a season that could net them anything of value, they’d probably be at least a couple wins better. They’d probably still be trading, but it’s not every day that a bad team has tradeable assets that they don’t think will be part of the next good version of their team.

I’m going to break this down by years of control, starting with players who are not under team control beyond 2021. Then I’ll move on to players who are not under team control beyond 2023 and then the rest. Years of control plays such a big part in the return and the calculus to trade, so that seems like the best bet.

Control Ending in 2021

Wade Davis - Look, I’d love for the Royals to be able to move him, but unless he throws about eight more 1-2-3 innings before next Friday, he’s not going anywhere other than maybe the DFA pile, sadly. Trade Probability: <5%

Danny Duffy - This is the one that might sting a little bit. The reports are out there that the Royals are actively shopping their longest-tenured player, and from what I can tell, the reports are accurate. Duffy will be a free agent after the season for the first time and the Royals have a chance to cash on his very good season that looked like it might even be more than that at one point. He has 10 and 5 rights, which means he can veto any trade that the Royals present with him, but I don’t think he’d do that if the Royals legitimately want to move him to help their future.

Now, what can he bring back? I think the Padres are a team that has a need and the Royals have a good relationship with them as far as frequent trade partners. I don’t think you’re getting back a top-five guy for him or anything, but Jorge Oña is a guy who might fit what the Royals are looking for. But would they want a third corner outfielder from the Padres? I don’t know. And Oña isn’t exactly a wizard with the glove. Andy Pages from the Dodgers would be a nice return, maybe along with someone like Michael Grove? I don’t want to get too bogged down in specific players, but I think you’re looking at a fringe top-10 prospect and maybe someone in the 20-25 range for Duffy. And then you can always sign the guy back if you really want to keep him in KC long-term. I’m definitely on board with that. Trade Probability: >60%

Edit: Hey, Duffy’s on the IL now. He’s eligible to come off on the 27th, so if he does, this probably still sticks, but if he doesn’t, I’d be a lot more surprised if he’s moved now.

Jarrod Dyson - I believe Dyson is a guy who would have some value, but the Royals are not going to get much back for him. Teams need fourth outfielders who can play all three outfield positions and run like he does. And the fact that he doesn’t come with a complete zero of a bat is a big help. They’re not going to get a top-20 guy and probably not even a top-30 guy, but they can get a flyer of an arm. Trade Probability: >30%

Jesse Hahn - He’s hurt and there isn’t much sign of him not being hurt any time soon. He’s not going anywhere. Trade Probability: <5%

Greg Holland - The same that was said for Dyson is true for Holland. While he has had his rough moments over the last few weeks, he was outstanding in 2020 and has shown the ability to get some strikeouts in 2021. Some team would pick him up as bullpen depth for a low prospect cost. He could go. Trade Probability: >30%

Ervin Santana - I think Santana could provide some value to a team in terms of eating innings. He hasn’t been horrible for the Royals and has shown mid-90s velocity at times as well. That’s something a team desperate for some pitching depth might be interested in. In the past, Santana would be a perfect waiver-wire pickup in August, but that market doesn’t exist anymore, so maybe a team gives up cash for him. Trade Probability: >30%

Jorge Soler - It’s been a brutal year for Soler. I don’t need to tell anyone that. He isn’t an outfielder, so his trade market is the American League basically. I suppose a National League team might want some thump on the bench, but boy is that a tough role, especially for a guy who struggles with timing. I think it’s possible that a team gives up a very, very low level prospect in the hopes that he can find his 2019 swing and give them a bunch of home runs, but the return will likely not be anyone we remember in even a couple seasons. Trade Probability: >10%

Michael A. Taylor - Taylor is the other guy who I think has some serious value as a trade candidate. He’s been playing better recently and has shown that he can play a high level in center field. He’s miscast as a starter, but he has some very real value as a very good fourth outfielder, I think. And the price is super low, so nobody is going to have to take on anything. The Yankees, if they want to pseudo-buy, would be a good fit with all their injuries. The Phillies might also be interested as the NL East looks much more open than before. The Braves, A’s, Angels and Padres could all have some interest as well.

He doesn’t bring back as much as Duffy, but there’s enough interest that he could surprise a bit on his return. I think you might be looking at a back half of a team’s top 20 prospects and maybe another arm from the lower levels as well. If they are able to move Taylor and get anything of value back for him, that makes the signing a win long-term. Trade Probability: >50%

Control Ending by 2023

Hanser Alberto - I guess a team might want him, but I don’t think so, not for anything worth even mentioning anyway. Trade Probability: <5%

Andrew Benintendi - This is a tough one. Benintendi has been good for the Royals in his first year in Kansas City. He’s under team control for one more season after this one, so a team acquiring him would get a year and two months for him. But I don’t really see the urgency for the Royals to move him. I think they’re far more likely to sign him long-term, and I think I also kind of agree with that. Let’s take Kyle Isbel, as an example. You hope he becomes as good as Benintendi, right? Benintendi is just 27 years old. Give him a four-year deal after this season and you’re getting his age-27 through age-30 seasons. There’s nothing wrong with that. He’d be an attractive piece on the trade market, but I don’t see them shopping him. Trade Probability: <15%

Jakob Junis (probably) - I say probably because his time in the minors might end up pushing his control to 2024. The Royals might throw Junis into a deal to clear some 40-man space, but given his struggles this year, I’d be surprised if any team actively tries to trade for him. Trade Probability: <5%

Brad Keller - I think trading Keller is actually a really interesting thought exercise, but now is not the time. It would be the time if he was pitching well, but he’s had a terrible season, so would it be wise to sell low right now? I mean I guess if someone came offering something that you couldn’t turn down, sure, you think about it, but that’s true of any player. What Keller is in theory is very different than what he’s been in practice this season, which is why he’s not a great candidate right now.

That said, he’s a young pitcher with team control through 2023 who throws hard and some team might think they can get the most out of him. I think if the Royals are interested in moving him, and they probably should be, it’s more of an off-season deal, but there isn’t a team in the league that wouldn’t take a shot on a guy like Keller. Trade Probability: <5%

Whit Merrifield - The Royals probably should have traded Merrifield a few years ago when his value was as high as it ever was going to be. But they didn’t. They said the offers weren’t good enough, which I actually sort of buy. There are a lot of people who will trade anyone with value and not worry too much about the return, but Merrifield has been such a steady, solid contributor that he’s not worth a discount in a trade. Except for now, I think he might be. His 2022 salary is $2.75 million, which is great for the Royals but also great in any trade because it mitigates much of the risk of a decline next season.

Who needs Whit? Literally every team can find a place for him because he can handle first, second, left, center and right. I don’t know that you want him playing every day at a couple of those spots, but he has the value and versatility that made Ben Zobrist so attractive to the Royals in 2015. Is he the final piece for a White Sox team that needs a second baseman in the worst way right now? It’d be a tough pill to swallow, but that’s a perfect fit. But again, every team can use him, so there would absolutely be a bidding war. I imagine the return would be similar to Duffy, but maybe a touch higher on the secondary piece. Maybe a team could be coerced into a top six prospect for him, but you’d be getting back a bit more on the quantity side. He is controlled with a team option through 2023. The time is now, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. Trade Probability: <50%

Mike Minor - This became a lot easier to figure out when the struggles really started for Minor. He was having a nice season before the sticky stuff started getting checked. As I’ve mentioned, we can’t know for sure if he’s been impacted or not by it, but the numbers have plummeted literally since the first start under the protocols. I think he would have been attractive to a team before with a relatively inexpensive 2022 salary and the ability to pile some innings on his arm. But that said, the Royals look to have a young staff again in 2022 and likely will be happy to have six innings every fifth day from Minor, even if those innings come with more runs than you’d like. Still, teams always want and need pitching, so he could go. Trade Probability: <40%

Adalberto Mondesi - Look, I get it. Bobby Witt, Jr. has made his way to AAA and Mondesi has played 10 games this year. Do they even need the guy anymore? Well, yes. After his bonkers finish to 2020, he’s hit .361/.378/.833 with nine extra base hits in those 10 games. I don’t think many teams would just give up on that. And if the Royals made him available, teams would be salivating to add that kind of talent at a discounted cost. So no, Mondesi isn’t going anywhere. At least not this deadline. Trade Probability: <1%

Carlos Santana - I think the plan for the Royals is for Santana to be the DH next year while Nick Pratto mans first base. It makes perfect sense. But I also could see Santana not loving that and the Royals wanting to do right by him. When they gave him the two-year deal, nobody knew what Pratto would do, so it wasn’t like this was a big misstep on their part or anything. There are plenty of teams, though, who might want Santana for the rest of this year and next.

The Red Sox, Brewers, Indians, Mariners, Yankees, Padres, Phillies, Rays and Angels are among the teams in some semblance of a playoff race who are getting subpar production from their first basemen. I love what Santana has brought to the Royals lineup but a 35-year old first baseman is signed by a team like the Royals to either be a bridge or get traded. And if the offer is out there for his .362 OBP and decent power, the Royals need to take it. What I think is that the Royals will like what he can bring to their lineup that should skew younger next season and will require a greater haul than any team will want to give up, but I think it’s certainly possible they’ll move him either now or in the offseason. Trade Probability: 45%

Everyone Else

This is a group of players who they control through at least 2024. It’s going to take quite a haul to get any of these guys who they actually like. But there are some who are intriguing.

Scott Barlow - Alphabetically we start with the most interesting player the Royals have to offer this season. Anecdotally, relievers don’t bring back a ton in mid-season trades, but you don’t often see guys with years of control like Barlow offers a team. And he’s been so good this year, even with the hiccup at the end of the first half, that a team might value him even higher. He’ll be arbitration eligible after this season and then eligible for free agency following the 2024 season, so a team has quite a while to get value out of him.

I’m not going to go through the list of contending teams who could use Barlow because the answer is literally everybody. There isn’t a team that Barlow doesn’t make their bullpen better, so if you’re dreaming on a return, you have to look back to what the Padres got for Brad Hand from the Indians. They got Francisco Mejia in a deal, who at the time was a top prospect in baseball. He hasn’t fully panned out just yet, but that’s the dream if you’re moving someone like Barlow. Now, Barlow doesn’t have the track record, but I think if you’re the Royals, you can ask for a top-75 guy and just hang on to him if you don’t like the offer you get. I believe they will be listening hard on Barlow, but I’m not as confident they’ll get the deal they want. Still, I think there’s at least a moderate chance he goes. Trade Probability: 50%

Ronald Bolaños - His health is so up in the air that even if the Royals wanted to move him (they don’t), I don’t think anything will happen here. Trade Probability: <5%

Jake Brentz - I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Trade Probability: <5%

Kris Bubic - Same. Trade Probability: <5%

Hunter Dozier - Would the Royals move Dozier? Sure. I bet they’d be thrilled after his start to the season to get out from under the contract, but while a team might be interested, they’re not giving up anything of value until they see him hit a little bit more. If he’s his 2019 self, the contract is an absolute steal, so he might get moved at some point during his deal, but I don’t think it’ll be now. Trade Probability: <10%

Lucius Fox - I mean I guess it could be similar to last year, but another year removed from actual prospect status, I don’t see a team trading much for Fox, if anything. I suppose it’s possible that someone wants depth. Trade Probability: <25%

Cam Gallagher - This is a player who I think could move. The reality is that the Royals are loaded with catchers. I thought Gallagher would get traded before last season and he’s still around, but we’ve seen what Sebastian Rivero can do behind the plate and his bat has been solid in Omaha this season with a .273/.341/.455 line. The Royals currently have MJ Melendez as the lone holdover in Northwest Arkansas and may want to get him to AAA, but they would need to have Rivero likely in the big leagues for that to make sense, so Gallagher could be a solid backup catcher on any contender.

While Gallagher isn’t going to win a batting title or get MVP votes, he did hit .283/.356/.434 last year in limited plate appearances and is very, very good behind the plate. Backup catchers are strangely in demand every year and while no team is giving up much of anything, I could see this being the year Gallagher moves: Trade Probability: >30%

Carlos Hernandez - Nope. Not moving on from that arm. Trade Probability: <5%

Kyle Isbel - I’m not sure there’s a market for him right now even if he was someone they wanted to trade. He could be a piece they use in the off-season in a bigger deal to get 2022 help, though. Trade Probability: <5%

Jackson Kowar - Ha, nope. Trade Probability: <5%

Nicky Lopez - It would be easy to see what Lopez is doing and think that they should sell high. Teams value contact and defense, though maybe not quite as much as the Royals, so Lopez could look good to a lot of teams needing a utility guy. I just don’t think they’ll even think about moving him unless they’re blown away and I don’t think they’d get blown away. Trade Probability: <10%

Richard Lovelady - They haven’t really given Lovelady much of a shot, especially since his struggles in his 2019 debut season. I could see him moving as another deal to open up some 40-man space, especially with Daniel Tillo finding his way off the 60-day IL soon. Trade Probability: >35%

Daniel Lynch - See Kowar, Jackson. Trade Probability: <5%

Ryan McBroom - He’s put up really good numbers in AAA and hasn’t been bad in the big leagues. If the Royals aren’t going to use him, I could see them maybe moving him in a very small deal to clear some 40-man space. Trade Probability: >25%

Ryan O’Hearn - Does anyone want him? I guess if someone did, the Royals would move him. Trade Probability: <5%

Edward Olivares - I think Olivares has been put in a very tough situation as one of the few position players with options this season, and that’s made people believe the Royals aren’t really interested in him. People I’ve talked to insist they still really like the player and he will likely get a big opportunity down the stretch. We’ll see if they can back up that talk, but I don’t really see a scenario where trading Olivares at this time is smart. He’s a guy you use to sweeten a deal to get back help for right now and they’re not trading for help right now, so I don’t think he moves. Trade Probability: <10%

Salvador Perez - Should they trade Salvy? Maybe. Will they? Not a chance, so we’re not wasting any time here. Trade Probability: 0%

Emmanuel Rivera - He had all of a game and a half before an injury and didn’t even have a big minor league track record before that, so I don’t see much of a chance he goes. Trade Probability: <5%

Sebastian Rivero - I suppose they could move Rivero if they don’t want to trade Gallagher, but I just think Gallagher is the more likely one to go. Trade Probability: <15%

Brady Singer - As frustrated as I am with Singer, I don’t think the Royals are going to be entertaining any offers to move him. For one, they love the guy. For another, he hasn’t pitched well enough to bring back a big return. For yet another, they believe he will be a big part of the future and they aren’t giving that up right now. Not yet, anyway. Trade Probability: <2%

Josh Staumont - It would be very interesting to see what they could get for Staumont in a trade right now, but I think it’s the wrong time. If he was still pumping 98 consistently, I’d have him in the same boat as Barlow given what the Royals have on the horizon out of the bullpen, but he just hasn’t seemed like the same guy as last year and I think that would be selling too low when waiting until the offseason or even next deadline wouldn’t change the return very much. Trade Probability: <10%

Domingo Tapia - Does anyone want him? I guess he’s another candidate to move for cash or something to open up a 40-man spot. Trade Probability: <15%

Daniel Tillo - The Royals (and I) were so excited about Tillo coming into 2020 after his conversion to the bullpen in 2019. I thought they had the next big power arm from the left side. Unfortunately, Tommy John got in the way and he missed last year when he would have easily gotten a chance and has been sidelined all year so far this year. The good news is that he’s on a rehab assignment and looks primed to make his big league debut either later this year or next season. I think he’s part of the plan for the Royals, so he’s not going anywhere. Trade Probability:<5%

Angel Zerpa - The Royals like the young lefty, who has made it to AA after being added to the 40-man roster this winter. He hasn’t been good enough for other teams to want him and the Royals like their depth. Trade Probability: <5%

Kyle Zimmer - I think Zimmer would be a perfect trade candidate given that he isn’t the best they have, but he’s still very good and would benefit literally every team’s bullpen. The issue, though, is that his injury history probably limits the return to the point that there’s not much of a reason to move the guy. Trade Probability: <20%

Tyler Zuber - I like Zuber a lot, but the control being so bad makes him someone that is still a project. I think the stuff is there so he isn’t in danger of being a 40-man casualty like some others, but I would doubt he gets traded. Trade Probability: <5%

So there it is. You have the chances that all 42 players currently on the 40-man roster get traded (it includes guys on the 60-day IL). I think the most likely movers are Danny Duffy and Scott Barlow, but ultimately, I think it’s a pretty quiet deadline for the Royals, which will likely not go over great with a portion of the fanbase.