Great week in general. The Marlins series didn’t make me feel any better even if they got the results they were looking for. Which…really…I guess is all anyone should care about. But the Cleveland series made me feel much better more in the fact that they played really good ball pretty much all weekend. In fact, the weird part was that Ragans lost…of all the starters. But it’s baseball.
Doesn’t mean they will win this next one, but man, just seeing them play better is really encouraging.
It was kind of a slow return to what we saw for the first two months, I feel like. The pitching looked sharp against the Marlins. The defense less so, but a little better than it had. The offense showed up very briefly and just enough, but still not terribly encouraging. In this series, they played pretty good baseball all the way around.
The defense only made one error and it was in garbage time and I can't really recall any boneheaded plays. Melendez misread a line drive right at him, which is frustrating but happens. The bats weren't great, but put up 20 runs over four games. Even if 10 were in one of them, as I noted, it had been awhile on that. And the pitching still looked sharp. The bullpen gave up a couple on Friday night when they just needed to get outs and then Will Smith got beat by Ramirez, which happens. I thought they looked pretty sharp through the series, which was very nice to see.
I’ve been following the Guardians much more than I should, and that foul ball “home run” is exactly the type of thing that’s been happening all year in their favor. They have a good team but not as good as their record. The regression is coming. I don’t think they’ve really had a single “bad” stretch of games all season, and when they do finally lose 5-6 in a row and go 3-9 over two weeks or whatever, I’m very curious to see if their bubble finally pops. My money is that they are much closer to a 500 team after the all star break.
David, it seems like every time you feel concerned about a series against a weaker team, you end up being right. Let’s hope this time it’s different!
I said all weekend that I've watched them a few times when not playing the Royals and I came away generally unimpressed. Now, a lot of that was with Kwan out, so maybe that element changes some things, but I think their starting pitching (weirdly for them) is going to hold them back. The bullpen is legit, but I don't know. I just have yet to see "best team in baseball" in them. I think they're probably a playoff team because they've built a massive cushion and their final 13 before the break aren't crazy difficult against the White Sox, Giants, Tigers and Rays, but they are now 1-4 in their last five. We'll see, I guess.
My Coors concern isn't so much founded in any kind of fact other than that it's a weird environment and you just never know how a team will react. So I'd say it's less than my A's concern.
Cleveland is ALOT like the Royals. Offense is the same…but better OBP with Cleveland with Kwan at the top. Ramierez is the star with BWJ and then a few nice pieces in the middle that make it go but man, the bottom of the order can be had just like the Royals. The Royals have a better rotation…Cleveland has a better bullpen. It wouldn’t surprise me if they end up in the same area. But also, The Royals are still fighting with the Twins now (who everyone projected to win the division)…so while Cleveland can certainly fall back….doesn’t mean it’s just them and Cleveland.
Actually, I mentioned Texas the other week as a scary team. But the Astros being 3.5 back is a little concerning to me as well. They haven’t been good, but they’ve righted the ship a bit for sure. It will be an interesting and entertaining second half. All you can ask for these days.
The Astros are pretty scary in a lot of ways. Hunter Brown was awful earlier this year and he's figured a lot out. But they're also without Javier and I feel like Ronel Blanco is going to have a tough time making it through a whole season like this. Still, a good bullpen and they've got the bats and the pedigree. I won't be surprised if they just win the West.
I’d almost feel better about the Royals if they fall off a bit (as they have kind of done already) during the middle of the season and then turn it back on as we get to the final stretch. We’ve seen time and again across baseball how mid-season adversity followed by momentum at the end of the season can help a team grit it out in the playoffs. Both WS teams last year are the most recent example. I would of course trade for the Guardians record and division lead, but you just have to wonder if they spend much of the season hot then get cold at the wrong time.
There are examples of both ways, honestly. The 2015 Royals looked like they would be a quick out (and almost were) when they had a bad September, but they got it back together. I do think the longer the tournament, the more important it is to be on an upswing heading into it.
I suppose more cameras would help. They claim they couldn't definitively see that it didn't hit the foul pole. I can't imagine there wasn't a view of that. I imagine they just said that because it can't be proven and, thus, they can cover themselves.
A camera on each foul pole aimed directly at home plate should help make those calls much easier! The ball either goes left or right of the foul pole or hits the pole!
The guy that hit that….Noel…maybe I think. IDK, I had never seen him before. But he reminded me very much of Miguel Sano from the Twins days. IDK if he’s going to make enough contact. But if he does….that ball is going a long long ways in a very quick amount of time. Lol.
Noel's been sort of an interesting prospect for a bit, only because he has insane power, but that's about it. You can't hang a pitch to him, but you can definitely get him out.
That failed replay call was outrageous. If the call on the field had been foul and the Guardians had challenged, I strongly feel the call would have been confirmed rather than call stands. And if I’m right, that’s a problem for me, because what that means is they pretty much knew it was a foul ball after replay, but didn’t want to take back a 2-run homer and held reversal not just to a high standard (appropriate), but to an impossible one.
I know Renfroe has another year left on his contract, so there's a good chance he will be around next year (and he's finally playing better)...but what about:
--Hampson is 1 year only?
--Frazier is 1 year only?
I'm not sure either of these guys are "trade bait", so that projects an outfield next year of Isbel/Renfroe/??
Plus, I'm not so sure they have been impressed with CJ Alexander given the fact that he hasn't seen the field since his (less than impressive) debut last week (pinch-running doesn't count: even I'm faster than Salvy).
Hampson and Frazier are one year (though Frazier has a team option). If this continues for Renfroe, he'll almost definitely opt out, but I think the smart moeny is that it settles somewhere in the middle and he doesn't. I would expect Gavin Cross gets a bump to AAA soon and he could compete. Tyler Gentry still exists and even though he's been generally bad this season, he's looked better at times. Maybe he gets a look? I don't know.
And there's still MJ, though I have a hunch they'll move him in a deal at some point. Of course, I also thought he'd get traded this winter, so what do I know?
The only thing I can think of that's good news for Alexander is that he played two games, Zumwalt saw something immediately and they're working on a change. That's somewhat far-fetched, but if you're looking for anything that isn't just "whoops, we made a huge mistake with this guy" that would be it.
With CJ I don’t think there is any whoops, or we made a mistake though. He’s 27. They were trying something. If they had really believed in this guy he’d have been up already. I appreciate that it’s pretty clear where they stand on people. He’s not going to get a huge shot…..he’s just not. But he’s getting a shot now. Maybe he takes advantage and gets some more time. To be frank, everyone in AAA is old…or they are pretty clear that they are just depth (Pratto, Waters, etc). If they had a solution….they would have gone to it by now. CJ was always just seeing if it would stick.
If you give someone two games, it's a whoops. I'm not saying it's a bad mistake, but when you call someone up and decide that they're not worth it in two games, that's a mistake.
IDK, if you say it was a mistake in two games. Then you have to question why you didn’t know that to begin with on your own guys. I’d prefer not to question that as I think they are evaluating much better. Lol.
My point is that if they see something that quick, it's a mistake no matter what you want to question. And honestly, it's fine. It's not like it's cost them anything or any player. There's an argument to be made that they are actually making swift decisions for the first time. Whether you like that or not is a different story.
I assume CJ goes back down once Frazier is back (and he's on his way back)--right? I'm also thinking he didn't exactly distinguish himself in the field (he blew a bunt that Garcia has made look easy--when it isn't) in addition to going "0 for"...
Along with Cross, I wonder about John Rave going forward. He might get an opportunity? He’s 26, I know, but has a great line this year (291/370/528/898), bats lead off, has played all 3 OF spots (1 E in 550 innings this year), 339 BABIP- sustainable?, 26% SO rate, 13% BB rate, 13 HR, 17 2B, 36 RBI from 1hole…
They really liked Rave after the 2022 season, from what people told me. Then he went out and just didn't show much last year and it seems to have taken him off the radar. And right now, it's kind of hard to judge any AAA numbers because of the massive gap between AAA and the majors.
Rave seems like a typical org. guy having a good year. He is 4A at best.
I do wonder about Gentry's total lack of production in April and May this year. If KC had a player that they needed to take big step forward, he would have been high on my list. Just hasn't done it. Cross is up next - when does he go to Omaha. He only has about 250 AA at bats.
Sometimes those guys become something. It's not like he's a 30th round pick or anything either, so I could see him getting a shot. I guess we'll see. I thought Gentry would carry over the last few months of 2023, but he was kind of a disaster. He's been okay now for a bit, but not good enough. He does have a nice blend of patience and enough power to be usable. I guess we'll see.
I'd probably get Cross up any day now. He's 23 but also has pretty limited minor league experience. I think it's probably a good idea to see how he fares. He's proven to them that failure doesn't deter him. I think it's time to challenge him. Maybe he can even be an answer this season. But they won't know without a bump soon.
Lesky- do you think the Royals definitely send their top prospects to AAA even with the reports about the severely diminished quality there? Also thinking of the top orioles prospects failing at the big leagues after crushing AAA.
The gap between AAA and the majors is bigger than ever but the gap between AA and the majors is still even bigger, so I’d assume they’ll still send guys through AAA.
I was particularly impressed with how Royals pitchers handled Kwan. He was hitting close to .400 and he looked pretty confused in nearly every at bat. I don’t know his series stats, but there were a few strikeouts for a guy who, as we kept hearing, doesn’t strike out.
Lugo is, as BWJ said in the postgame, a surgeon. He’s just so deliberate and cerebral out there.
My daughter and son-in-law are taking me to the game on Wednesday. Wacha has been strong, but I know nothing about Pepiot. Hoping for more magic or, at the very least, that the Royals bats aren’t dead, because there’s probably nothing more boring than watching your team get shut out in person. This week has definitely been a nice trend upward offensively.
The funny thing about Kwan (and really anyone) who is approaching .400 is that they generally have to get hot to get there. By the time it's noticed, they're starting to cool down. So he gets to .398 in Toronto and then they come home. It wasn't just a sudden drop, but he's hit .269 since then (with a .500 SLG, for what it's worth). but is .214/.267/.250 in their last two series. The Royals absolutely handled him, though, and I agree that it was great to see it. I don't say that to take anything away from the way they handled him. He's an elite hitter and they were impressive against him.
Pepiot is a former Dodgers prospect. He's got a really tough fastball but his slider and changeup can be gotten.
KC standing face to face with Guardians and winning 3 out of 4 is really big. Needed to prove they could play with the big boys and they did it! Interesting they had a dud on Bo's HOF day. That's baseball. Was pleased the Friday night crowd got to see a good game.
I'll be intrigued to see how KC responds after what was clearly big home series. Of course, they are all big. Rays have bullpen pieces I'd like to see KC pursue in trade like Adam or Fairbanks.
You could argue they had a letdown after the stretch of series against first place teams, but the Rays are pretty close to them, so I don't think it'll be an A's situation.
The men in blue deserve a lot of credit for winning the Guardians series. One thing for sure is they are unpredictable, often winning when you don't expect them to and playing down when you think they will win or sweep a series. Keeps things interesting, but they are in great shape to make a playoff run in the second half. Just need another piece or two.
The team got a little play on the Rates & Barrels podcast from Friday ( part of my work playlist today ) & Eno mentioned that the player with the biggest bat speed increase over the last month was Vinnie. So hopefully he really goes off soon.
Great week in general. The Marlins series didn’t make me feel any better even if they got the results they were looking for. Which…really…I guess is all anyone should care about. But the Cleveland series made me feel much better more in the fact that they played really good ball pretty much all weekend. In fact, the weird part was that Ragans lost…of all the starters. But it’s baseball.
Doesn’t mean they will win this next one, but man, just seeing them play better is really encouraging.
It was kind of a slow return to what we saw for the first two months, I feel like. The pitching looked sharp against the Marlins. The defense less so, but a little better than it had. The offense showed up very briefly and just enough, but still not terribly encouraging. In this series, they played pretty good baseball all the way around.
The defense only made one error and it was in garbage time and I can't really recall any boneheaded plays. Melendez misread a line drive right at him, which is frustrating but happens. The bats weren't great, but put up 20 runs over four games. Even if 10 were in one of them, as I noted, it had been awhile on that. And the pitching still looked sharp. The bullpen gave up a couple on Friday night when they just needed to get outs and then Will Smith got beat by Ramirez, which happens. I thought they looked pretty sharp through the series, which was very nice to see.
I’ve been following the Guardians much more than I should, and that foul ball “home run” is exactly the type of thing that’s been happening all year in their favor. They have a good team but not as good as their record. The regression is coming. I don’t think they’ve really had a single “bad” stretch of games all season, and when they do finally lose 5-6 in a row and go 3-9 over two weeks or whatever, I’m very curious to see if their bubble finally pops. My money is that they are much closer to a 500 team after the all star break.
David, it seems like every time you feel concerned about a series against a weaker team, you end up being right. Let’s hope this time it’s different!
I said all weekend that I've watched them a few times when not playing the Royals and I came away generally unimpressed. Now, a lot of that was with Kwan out, so maybe that element changes some things, but I think their starting pitching (weirdly for them) is going to hold them back. The bullpen is legit, but I don't know. I just have yet to see "best team in baseball" in them. I think they're probably a playoff team because they've built a massive cushion and their final 13 before the break aren't crazy difficult against the White Sox, Giants, Tigers and Rays, but they are now 1-4 in their last five. We'll see, I guess.
My Coors concern isn't so much founded in any kind of fact other than that it's a weird environment and you just never know how a team will react. So I'd say it's less than my A's concern.
Cleveland is ALOT like the Royals. Offense is the same…but better OBP with Cleveland with Kwan at the top. Ramierez is the star with BWJ and then a few nice pieces in the middle that make it go but man, the bottom of the order can be had just like the Royals. The Royals have a better rotation…Cleveland has a better bullpen. It wouldn’t surprise me if they end up in the same area. But also, The Royals are still fighting with the Twins now (who everyone projected to win the division)…so while Cleveland can certainly fall back….doesn’t mean it’s just them and Cleveland.
Actually, I mentioned Texas the other week as a scary team. But the Astros being 3.5 back is a little concerning to me as well. They haven’t been good, but they’ve righted the ship a bit for sure. It will be an interesting and entertaining second half. All you can ask for these days.
The Astros are pretty scary in a lot of ways. Hunter Brown was awful earlier this year and he's figured a lot out. But they're also without Javier and I feel like Ronel Blanco is going to have a tough time making it through a whole season like this. Still, a good bullpen and they've got the bats and the pedigree. I won't be surprised if they just win the West.
I’d almost feel better about the Royals if they fall off a bit (as they have kind of done already) during the middle of the season and then turn it back on as we get to the final stretch. We’ve seen time and again across baseball how mid-season adversity followed by momentum at the end of the season can help a team grit it out in the playoffs. Both WS teams last year are the most recent example. I would of course trade for the Guardians record and division lead, but you just have to wonder if they spend much of the season hot then get cold at the wrong time.
There are examples of both ways, honestly. The 2015 Royals looked like they would be a quick out (and almost were) when they had a bad September, but they got it back together. I do think the longer the tournament, the more important it is to be on an upswing heading into it.
Thanks David for the great analysis. I do not know how the umpires and replay did not get that actual foul ball and turned it into a homer?
Replay has made baseball better by getting MOST of plays right but maybe more cameras would have helped make the right call? Go Royals!!!
I suppose more cameras would help. They claim they couldn't definitively see that it didn't hit the foul pole. I can't imagine there wasn't a view of that. I imagine they just said that because it can't be proven and, thus, they can cover themselves.
A camera on each foul pole aimed directly at home plate should help make those calls much easier! The ball either goes left or right of the foul pole or hits the pole!
The easy solution is always the very last thing MLB does.
The guy that hit that….Noel…maybe I think. IDK, I had never seen him before. But he reminded me very much of Miguel Sano from the Twins days. IDK if he’s going to make enough contact. But if he does….that ball is going a long long ways in a very quick amount of time. Lol.
Noel's been sort of an interesting prospect for a bit, only because he has insane power, but that's about it. You can't hang a pitch to him, but you can definitely get him out.
That failed replay call was outrageous. If the call on the field had been foul and the Guardians had challenged, I strongly feel the call would have been confirmed rather than call stands. And if I’m right, that’s a problem for me, because what that means is they pretty much knew it was a foul ball after replay, but didn’t want to take back a 2-run homer and held reversal not just to a high standard (appropriate), but to an impossible one.
"he probably can't rely too much on that curve" - is that at altitude thing or something you have seen in the pitch?
No, it's the altitude entirely. But he's also been fine in Coors in his career.
I can't believe you didn't touch on this, but the only reason the Royals are winning is because they are cheating.
What if I told you I'm part of it all?
So quiet down before *they* figure it out!
Oops, my bad. Didn't mean to out you. Please delete if necessary!
Nothing ever goes away on the internet. It's fine.
Someone help me out here.
I know Renfroe has another year left on his contract, so there's a good chance he will be around next year (and he's finally playing better)...but what about:
--Hampson is 1 year only?
--Frazier is 1 year only?
I'm not sure either of these guys are "trade bait", so that projects an outfield next year of Isbel/Renfroe/??
Plus, I'm not so sure they have been impressed with CJ Alexander given the fact that he hasn't seen the field since his (less than impressive) debut last week (pinch-running doesn't count: even I'm faster than Salvy).
Hampson and Frazier are one year (though Frazier has a team option). If this continues for Renfroe, he'll almost definitely opt out, but I think the smart moeny is that it settles somewhere in the middle and he doesn't. I would expect Gavin Cross gets a bump to AAA soon and he could compete. Tyler Gentry still exists and even though he's been generally bad this season, he's looked better at times. Maybe he gets a look? I don't know.
And there's still MJ, though I have a hunch they'll move him in a deal at some point. Of course, I also thought he'd get traded this winter, so what do I know?
The only thing I can think of that's good news for Alexander is that he played two games, Zumwalt saw something immediately and they're working on a change. That's somewhat far-fetched, but if you're looking for anything that isn't just "whoops, we made a huge mistake with this guy" that would be it.
With CJ I don’t think there is any whoops, or we made a mistake though. He’s 27. They were trying something. If they had really believed in this guy he’d have been up already. I appreciate that it’s pretty clear where they stand on people. He’s not going to get a huge shot…..he’s just not. But he’s getting a shot now. Maybe he takes advantage and gets some more time. To be frank, everyone in AAA is old…or they are pretty clear that they are just depth (Pratto, Waters, etc). If they had a solution….they would have gone to it by now. CJ was always just seeing if it would stick.
If you give someone two games, it's a whoops. I'm not saying it's a bad mistake, but when you call someone up and decide that they're not worth it in two games, that's a mistake.
IDK, if you say it was a mistake in two games. Then you have to question why you didn’t know that to begin with on your own guys. I’d prefer not to question that as I think they are evaluating much better. Lol.
My point is that if they see something that quick, it's a mistake no matter what you want to question. And honestly, it's fine. It's not like it's cost them anything or any player. There's an argument to be made that they are actually making swift decisions for the first time. Whether you like that or not is a different story.
I assume CJ goes back down once Frazier is back (and he's on his way back)--right? I'm also thinking he didn't exactly distinguish himself in the field (he blew a bunt that Garcia has made look easy--when it isn't) in addition to going "0 for"...
Along with Cross, I wonder about John Rave going forward. He might get an opportunity? He’s 26, I know, but has a great line this year (291/370/528/898), bats lead off, has played all 3 OF spots (1 E in 550 innings this year), 339 BABIP- sustainable?, 26% SO rate, 13% BB rate, 13 HR, 17 2B, 36 RBI from 1hole…
I know I’m just wishcasting, but maybe?
They really liked Rave after the 2022 season, from what people told me. Then he went out and just didn't show much last year and it seems to have taken him off the radar. And right now, it's kind of hard to judge any AAA numbers because of the massive gap between AAA and the majors.
Rave seems like a typical org. guy having a good year. He is 4A at best.
I do wonder about Gentry's total lack of production in April and May this year. If KC had a player that they needed to take big step forward, he would have been high on my list. Just hasn't done it. Cross is up next - when does he go to Omaha. He only has about 250 AA at bats.
Sometimes those guys become something. It's not like he's a 30th round pick or anything either, so I could see him getting a shot. I guess we'll see. I thought Gentry would carry over the last few months of 2023, but he was kind of a disaster. He's been okay now for a bit, but not good enough. He does have a nice blend of patience and enough power to be usable. I guess we'll see.
I'd probably get Cross up any day now. He's 23 but also has pretty limited minor league experience. I think it's probably a good idea to see how he fares. He's proven to them that failure doesn't deter him. I think it's time to challenge him. Maybe he can even be an answer this season. But they won't know without a bump soon.
Lesky- do you think the Royals definitely send their top prospects to AAA even with the reports about the severely diminished quality there? Also thinking of the top orioles prospects failing at the big leagues after crushing AAA.
The gap between AAA and the majors is bigger than ever but the gap between AA and the majors is still even bigger, so I’d assume they’ll still send guys through AAA.
I was particularly impressed with how Royals pitchers handled Kwan. He was hitting close to .400 and he looked pretty confused in nearly every at bat. I don’t know his series stats, but there were a few strikeouts for a guy who, as we kept hearing, doesn’t strike out.
Lugo is, as BWJ said in the postgame, a surgeon. He’s just so deliberate and cerebral out there.
My daughter and son-in-law are taking me to the game on Wednesday. Wacha has been strong, but I know nothing about Pepiot. Hoping for more magic or, at the very least, that the Royals bats aren’t dead, because there’s probably nothing more boring than watching your team get shut out in person. This week has definitely been a nice trend upward offensively.
The funny thing about Kwan (and really anyone) who is approaching .400 is that they generally have to get hot to get there. By the time it's noticed, they're starting to cool down. So he gets to .398 in Toronto and then they come home. It wasn't just a sudden drop, but he's hit .269 since then (with a .500 SLG, for what it's worth). but is .214/.267/.250 in their last two series. The Royals absolutely handled him, though, and I agree that it was great to see it. I don't say that to take anything away from the way they handled him. He's an elite hitter and they were impressive against him.
Pepiot is a former Dodgers prospect. He's got a really tough fastball but his slider and changeup can be gotten.
KC standing face to face with Guardians and winning 3 out of 4 is really big. Needed to prove they could play with the big boys and they did it! Interesting they had a dud on Bo's HOF day. That's baseball. Was pleased the Friday night crowd got to see a good game.
I'll be intrigued to see how KC responds after what was clearly big home series. Of course, they are all big. Rays have bullpen pieces I'd like to see KC pursue in trade like Adam or Fairbanks.
You could argue they had a letdown after the stretch of series against first place teams, but the Rays are pretty close to them, so I don't think it'll be an A's situation.
Are the Royals now so good at the K that any talk of a new stadium should be banned?
Hey, you never know.
But, uh, no. They’re still moving somewhere at some point.
The men in blue deserve a lot of credit for winning the Guardians series. One thing for sure is they are unpredictable, often winning when you don't expect them to and playing down when you think they will win or sweep a series. Keeps things interesting, but they are in great shape to make a playoff run in the second half. Just need another piece or two.
The team got a little play on the Rates & Barrels podcast from Friday ( part of my work playlist today ) & Eno mentioned that the player with the biggest bat speed increase over the last month was Vinnie. So hopefully he really goes off soon.
That’s interesting. I hadn’t thought to look that up.
He was a potential roster crunch victim on my fantasy team, but that lil' nugget made me think twice.
It’s at least worth paying attention to for a few weeks.
Great job, David. I was just so proud of the lads for taking 3 of 4. WOW!