I'm glad I'm not the only one absolutely confused about the way people have talked about the trade deadline. For years, we've moaned about how we can't get anything for the rentals we traded away at the deadline, but everyone is convinced that every player who might helps us is going to cost Cross, Mitchell, and six pitching prospects. Rentals aren't that expensive! If, as many said before the season, the system lacks high end talent but has a lot of mid-tier talent, then it isn't going to hurt to trade away some of that mid-tier talent because we have an excess anyway!
Yes! I just can't get over this idea of "the system sucks, so there's nothing to trade, but you can't trade away the future for a team that isn't good enough to win the World Series!"
Okay, but you said...
Also, if the system sucks, isn't that the time to absolutely blow it out and go for it?
It’s also like fantasy football. People want to hang on too much to what’s working, sell the bad, and hope to get good players in return. That’s obviously not how it works.
Thanks David for an honest assessment of the Royals! It is now like 2023 when somebody is summoned from the bullpen because you KNOW the game is lost! They need to crush Miami starting tonight!
Yes, we will know in about 12-13 hours! I know hitting is contagious as many years ago I was playing with a team that got into the loser’s bracket of a double-elimination tournament and then won six consecutive games in 103 degree Fahrenheit heat to get to the championship game! I was playing shortstop and had to keep moving around because my feet were on fire from the heat! But during those six games everyone was hitting. It all starts with BWJ and he was 0-for Texas! Time to turn it around starting tonight. GO ROYALS!!!
I actually felt bad for Witt's parents/family (dressed to the 9's in their Royals garb) having to watch Bobby's offensive outage...but I'm sure the good times will roll again.
I don't know about that. Baseball doesn't tell you much in individual games. It's about stretches. They need to put together a 4-3 week in the worst way.
I feel like this article was targeted at me, and I appreciate it! We'll, not ENTIRELY targeted. I've never been one of the "don't trade our mid-tier prospects" guys. I'm all for it. If they can swing deals for guys they believe have higher floors/ceilings if they can get their hands on them, I hope more than anything that they do it early and often. And if they can do it for rentals that can help now, all the better. BUT, I have been finding myself wondering quite a bit things like "could they get some guys that are going to contribute to a good team for a few years in exchange for Lugo/Wacha/Singer/Whoever" (though I'd still love to see them unload Singer, I just really want him to be someone else's problem). And that really shouldn't be my attitude. I've let myself slip into a planning-for-next-year-only brain space with the Royals over the past mostly decade, and I gotta stop that. So, thanks for the gentle Come to Jesus!
Sorry about the typos. I hate posting on my phone. Yes, phone, I know I type the wrong word every time because I have fat fingers. No, that doesn't mean it's a real word.
Ha no biggie on that. We all typo. Hell, I do it in the articles that I make people pay to read!
My issue with true selling is two-fold. I do think they can get a decent amount for Lugo (but not as much as the start to his season would indicate) and they can probably get back something for Singer. But who else is bringing back much? Wacha is a risk with his option year. I've said that from the start. The rest of the guys you'd move are Hunter Renfroe (bad plus the option), John Schreiber (really bad lately), Nick Anderson (super inconsistent), Chris Stratton (better than the numbers, but not bringing much back) and Will Smith (pretty solid lately, but underwhelming peripherals). So that leads to the second point of isn't that doing a disservice to fans who have sat through absolute garbage for seven years? If you're not getting that much back, why do it?
The rotation is too good to not be in the race. I’ll still stand by that. “In the race” can mean a slow decent and 7 games out in September…but you’re still in it for most of the year.
You still have to be a buyer. We may not have top end talent….they guys you think could be the top end don’t move. That’s fine. But everyone else….if you can get a year of control on Koepech for instance. Just move them. If you can’t replace some mid 20 level prospects in two years….this thing isn’t going to work.
That's pretty much what I'm saying. I'm not even sure who the biggest star to be traded will be, but I don't think the Royals can or should be in on that. But go get average players.
If we are talking a Ward or a Koepech….I’m pretty sure we would still have both for next year right? So in theory we would be better next year as well. Maybe the ask is too high IDK. But it seems like any 10-15 range prospect would be fine to move. Again, for this thing to work long term it’s gonna have to be from the farm system. You are going to have to be able to replace them. Give it two drafts and cycles….they should not miss a beat.
Ward's actually under team control through 2026, I believe. Kopech through next year, yeah. So you're right. The issue I'm seeing with Ward is he might be the best outfielder traded, so there might be some inflation because of competition. It's a rough look at outfielders this season on the trade market.
Well, they are in a tough spot right now. You can play pitching and defense but only if the bullpen doesn’t suck. You can play offense….but only if you have a capable bottom half of the lineup. The rotation is still nails. I expect two of three from Miami just with Ragans and Lugo going to start the series. IDK what to expect from Cleveland…..but the longer the season goes the more I look at the pitching matchups. They have Ragans and Lugo each throwing twice this week I think. They really should have at least a .500 week and probably, hopefully, better.
In fact, I’d rather move the guys that are closer. Mainly because I want the guys who have been in the “system” since Q and the coaching staff was in place. More just to see if any difference and my own curiosity really. The guys that were from the prior regime could all work. Don’t get me wrong. But I kinda wanna see the guys who have come through this system the whole time to see if any difference. Which could be hard to tell anyway.
I think most of the guys who could/would be moved were part of the organization before this group came in, so that seems likely. I'm assuming you're talking about guys like Waters, Pratto, Lynch, etc. and while none are bringing back a huge return, I do think they can help lessen some of the prospect burden too. With so many playoff teams, maybe a near big leaguer entices a team that hopes to not be selling next season.
Yeah pretty much that crew but the time to trade them was a couple years ago and the Royals clearly didn’t know what they had. So that is pretty much just a second our third piece now….which has a place. I’d actually move Cross though. He was a DM guy, hasn’t been with this staff the whole time. Not exactly a consistent guy but supposedly has the talent. I mean, maybe that is the main piece for Ward. Of which….three years of average mlb outfielder for Cross….yeah, I’d probably do it.
I think three years would be a minimum I'd trade Cross for. He's a legit prospect and should be a starter in the big leagues, maybe as soon as next season.
Great article David. While I see what the fans you are talking about are saying I sit here and look at the returns for Soler, Merrifield, Barlow, Benintendi, Duffy etc etc and I see 0 big leaguers ever acquired in trade by the Royals. It’s time to identify guys that won’t make it and send them out to everyone.
Now for it to matter won’t Bobby, Vinnie, Salvy, Massey, MJ, Marsh, at least half the bullpen have to bounce back from their slumps? Yep. But it’s not a given you’ll be this close even next year! So protect your top ~5-7 future MLB contributors and make it happen. Package Pratto and Waters and get a reliever! (Small) Improvements don’t have to hurt that bad.
I'll argue slightly with the zero big leaguers. So far, yes, but I think the Barlow and Benintendi deals can and will change that. Henry Williams is a nice return for Barlow. He may never make it, but he's a legitimate prospect. And I think both Beck Way and Chandler Champlain are big leaguers at some point.
But yeah, the bigger issue is that Witt/Salvy/Vinnie went 1 for 32 against Texas (I think). You're not going to win many games when those three do that.
Definitely not. I just looked at least year's returns for my examples above. Average players get back average prospects. Average prospects are generally below average bets to make it and even lower than that to make it and make an impact.
Thanks for recognizing MJ. We have criticized him so much, and rightly so, this year that it’s only fair to give him some credit when it’s due. His defense has also been stellar. Also, Isbel has shown some offensive improvement over the past 3 weeks. I will be watching and hoping for consistency out of these two players.
Isbel has looked MUCH better, only to now be hurt, which happened last year too. He had just started to look better before the hamstring injury. Hopefully this back thing only keeps him out a couple of days and he comes back hitting like he had - .333/.361/.576 in his last 11 games.
Isbel has a fairly significant injury history I feel like. It doesn’t seem like the first time he’s starting to hit better and then gets sidetracked.
Does anyone know if CJ Alexander is any good at third. Is it possible Garcia could play center? I know you are going to say no. But if all the outfielders suck…..something has to be tried. Lol.
Alexander isn't a good third baseman, I know that. I have no idea if Garcia can play center. I know that they gave him some time out there last spring and he hasn't seen the outfield again. That's what I can tell you.
MJ and Izzy are so much fun to watch in the field, and even though their batting averages are anemic overall, it seems that Izzy often hits when it counts and that he battles at every PA. The injury was icing on the crap cake this week. It’s good to see signs of life in MJ’s bat, though. He has so much ground to make up.
Regarding the fans, I just have to laugh at everyone on twitter/facebook, or any other social media that are convinced it's just so easy to fix the problems. I have a favorite poster on several of the Royals Facebook sites who is convinced JJ is "sitting on his ass" because none of the 150 trades he's been advocating for since spring training have happened.
Right now, it feels so much like 2023, it's a struggle for me to continue to have hope. This weekend was brutal. Saturday and Sunday I turned off the game the second they gave up a run, it just felt like they weren't going to fight back. And it sucked to be right about that. But they have just been too good for the first couple of months for me to throw in the towel.
People believe that JJ just has his phone out waiting for it to ring. He's making calls. It takes two teams to make a deal and there aren't that many teams dealing yet for various reasons. A lot of teams want to add talent, but not many are ready to get rid of theirs.
I've said it before, will say it again: fans are hilarious.
There are only a few teams that know they're serious contenders. A lot of teams are like the Royals, hopeful but not sure they have what it takes, so they're not ready to buy OR sell.
There's a reason deals tend to happen at the deadline.
Schreiber defied fate for most of April. He was striking nobody out and getting soft (or fortunate, maybe) contact. But a K/9 of under 6 was always going to catch up to him.
Now, I've heard rumors that he's a double agent and is still on the Red Sox payroll and is trying to make sure they get a postseason spot. I've also heard that the starting pitchers beat him with baseball bats after Friday night's performance. As far as I can tell, neither of those are true. :)
A little gallows humor for a bleak and unbearably hot Monday.
The difference, in my opinion, between Schreiber succeeding that way in April and failing now is that in April, you thought that he'd find the strikeouts again like he has for the last three years. So when some things turned on batted ball luck, it'd be counteracted. It hasn't at all.
As brutal as watching 22 straight scoreless innings is (and something like 18 out of 27 1-2-3 innings plus two more with only three batters at the plate this weekend), they're still not even halfway to their own (and the live-ball American League) record of 45 straight scoreless that happened while they were still in a race in 2017. It can always get worse, and I feel somewhat confident that it won't this time.
I like the way you think, and if they could actually get three or four early, with the way Ragans has been pitching this month it could be lights-out early for the Marlins.
My subscription to this Substack renews at the end of the month, and I don’t think I’ve ever needed to read it more than today. This last week felt like all of 2023: like we were finding ways to do less than enough no matter what. Like we were making bad teams look like the Yankees. Weirdly, the last two losses to the Rangers hurt less than the previous few, because we were never really in it.
We’re 5 games over .500 and it feels like we’re 10 games under. It’s hard to believe this month that we were eagerly anticipating the Guardians series last month because we genuinely wanted to know who was better.
This whole week felt like Maikel Garcia’s face lately.
I’m hoping Massey is a spark plug, but this is obviously a deeper problem than one guy on offense.
Last month you wrote at one point about Bobby’s puzzling lack of pull power. It still feels like he’s figuring things out there, which is a weird thing to say about a player near the top of the AL’s offensive stats in several categories. Has there been improvement there? Obviously not in the last week, but overall?
He's been pulling the ball for power a lot more. I don't know if it's to the level of last season, but it's been enough that I haven't even thought to look it up.
The big thing for this offense is they need to score early. It's like a losing streak or any other sort of streak. If you get into another day and the same things keep happening, you develop a "here we go again" mindset. If you can nip that right away, it doesn't happen.
I know you’ve mentioned the 40 man roster and the difficulties with it on guys not on the 40 man. But I am still a little surprised we haven’t seen Rave or Pennington. So the question isn’t so much about them but do you think they are using them as trade bait? I’m mainly curious if we can look back in a couple months and think….I see what they were doing now.
If I were Pennington…I’d be like…what more do you want. Just trade me already if you aren’t going to give me a chance. Lol.
I'm less surprised about Rave than Pennington. The Royals don't buy the numbers in AAA right now. I think they've made that clear. But that makes Pennington even more curious.
I enjoyed the article, thanks. My only point is that the Royals' "20th prospect" is not the same as the Yankees "20th prospect". The Royals' farm system is weak, so teams with good farm systems can trade lower level prospects and get something decent in return. The Royals' system will have to give up a higher level prospect to get that same decent return. Just my opinion.
In a vacuum, that's true, but that's partially why I went a few spots higher when I gave the Royals example. But also, I've heard from many people that the issue with the Royals system isn't 11-30, it's 1-10. I talk to lots of scouts who really like the back half of their top prospects. They're on par or better than a lot of good systems there. It's just that there isn't the star power to get there.
I hope you are right. It is just when you look at the different top 100 prospect lists, there is one Royal on it. Perhaps the guys 11-30 as you said will eventually make it. I do fully understand though that just because a guy is top ranked, doesn't mean he will be a top notch major league player.
A couple points about this. One, outside of the top 50 or so, I’ve heard that 51-150 are really fairly interchangeable. Maybe you’re not going to find #51 off many lists but there are about 100-110 guys who any reasonable person might list in their top 100. I’m not saying the Royals system is better than it appears because of that, but just one thing to consider.
And the other is that there are no 11-30 team prospects in a top 100. So the fact that the Royals only have the one really has very little bearing on the back half of their top prospects.
Well to your point David. I think the Royals are ranked in the high teens or the low 20’s. If they only have 1 top 100 prospect. It is already telling us what the industry has already said. They don’t have the top end talent….but clearly at 20 let’s say, they have prospects and talent. So I kinda feel like our 20th ranked prospect is pretty in line with every other team. Obviously, it can changed based on team but its gonna be in that same grouping. So I’d push back a bit that our 20th ranked prospect isn’t in line with others. It’s just the top end prospects. We don’t have them. That’s really all.
With Boston passing the Royals for the last playoff spot and looking better than the Royals, it looks bleak for the Royals to nab a wildcard spot. The other teams in contention appear to be better. The bullpen is so bad, why not try someone different like Walter Pennington? He is pitching to a 1.80 ERA the last time I looked and has thrown upwards of 50 innings. How could he be worse than Schreiber or Zerpa? Time for them to try something and jettison the guys having a really bad year. Maybe they will strike gold like they did in Ragans last year.
I'm hearing some rather loud stomping footsteps. Those belong to the Astros. Nobody wants to hear about that, but now they're only 4.5 games behind Boston and they have Verlander and Blanco back on the mound (the latter took a second no-hit bid into the eighth inning the other night). They also know what it takes.
I have a lot of friends in Houston so I heard all of their wailing about how badly the Astros were playing in April and May, but it's no surprise to me that they're back in the race. I think they and the Rangers will have a strong second half of the season and make the West really competitive.
I would imagine Pennington will eventually get his shot. The numbers are excellent. The profile is something I've heard from more than a couple of people works in the minors but won't in the majors. At some point, they have to find out for sure.
Agree with you 100% David. I went to all 3 games against Texas (unfortunately) and wanted to share a few "unprofessional" observations. 1) After the team gave up 5 runs after leading in the first, the demeaner for the majority of the team changed. Garcia was the one that showed up nearly every at bat, especially after each strikeout. He walked so slowing to the dugout that a pitch was being delivered to the next batter. He just looked defeated. 2) There was no hustle on ground out with the exception of Bobby, MJ and Fraiser. They literally stopped running almost out of the box. The worst was Garcia who hit one yesterday deep in the hole, the SS had to make a good play and backhand. As soon as Garcia saw he caught it, he jogged the rest of the way. I thought it might be a close play. Maybe it's just a different game than when I played but credit to those 3 that put the burners on even when it was hit to the pitcher (MJ). 3) For what it's worth, I was curious if I could predict the pitches on what Singer was going to throw. On one hitter, I got 6 in a row and over a couple of batters I was over 80%. I guess it isn't a big deal given he throws typically one of his 2 pitches so you have a 50/50 chance. However, I did it after there were some really hard hit pitches that got outstanding defense. 4) I don't recall ever seeing so many popup outs over a 3 game period especially ones that are foul or don't even get out of the infield (usually on the 1st or 2nd pitch of the AB). I still believe this team can roll over 7-8 in a row and get us back on track. Maybe the home venue will get them back on track.
This is their first really tough stretch of the year. Before this one, you could chalk it up to just playing great teams, but when you start to lose to bad and mediocre teams, it can get to them. Garcia's body language is pretty brutal right now. He's an emotional player and that can carry him through good stretches, but it's something he needs to learn to be better about through down stretches. Part of the development process I guess.
And yeah, Singer is super predictable and the offense is just way off. Hopefully getting back home can be the mental reset they need.
Agree David. Adversity builds character and this team is definitely a young team. The team will be stronger and this stretch will make the Royals stronger later on in the season.
I was at two of the three games against Texas as well (also unfortunately) and thought the same thing you did Bill. I told my wife I don't think I've ever been to a game with more weak pop-outs. And the body language wasn't good, but hey, it's their first extended funk, and they will learn from this I hope. They learned a lot about winning games over the first two months, but the season is a grind...and it may even be more of a grind when you start to develop expectations and then the funk hits. Hoping we break out of it tonight! Maikel looks totally worn down by his recent stretch. And while still hustling like crazy, even Bobby looked down to me yesterday. I also wonder if he presses when he comes back home to Texas. He hasn't hit here and has a gaggle of friends and family at all these games.
I'm glad I'm not the only one absolutely confused about the way people have talked about the trade deadline. For years, we've moaned about how we can't get anything for the rentals we traded away at the deadline, but everyone is convinced that every player who might helps us is going to cost Cross, Mitchell, and six pitching prospects. Rentals aren't that expensive! If, as many said before the season, the system lacks high end talent but has a lot of mid-tier talent, then it isn't going to hurt to trade away some of that mid-tier talent because we have an excess anyway!
Yes! I just can't get over this idea of "the system sucks, so there's nothing to trade, but you can't trade away the future for a team that isn't good enough to win the World Series!"
Okay, but you said...
Also, if the system sucks, isn't that the time to absolutely blow it out and go for it?
It’s also like fantasy football. People want to hang on too much to what’s working, sell the bad, and hope to get good players in return. That’s obviously not how it works.
Thanks David for an honest assessment of the Royals! It is now like 2023 when somebody is summoned from the bullpen because you KNOW the game is lost! They need to crush Miami starting tonight!
Right now, they're bad. There's just no way around it. Are they truly a bad team? I don't think so, but we'll see soon enough, I guess.
Yes, we will know in about 12-13 hours! I know hitting is contagious as many years ago I was playing with a team that got into the loser’s bracket of a double-elimination tournament and then won six consecutive games in 103 degree Fahrenheit heat to get to the championship game! I was playing shortstop and had to keep moving around because my feet were on fire from the heat! But during those six games everyone was hitting. It all starts with BWJ and he was 0-for Texas! Time to turn it around starting tonight. GO ROYALS!!!
I actually felt bad for Witt's parents/family (dressed to the 9's in their Royals garb) having to watch Bobby's offensive outage...but I'm sure the good times will roll again.
I don't know about that. Baseball doesn't tell you much in individual games. It's about stretches. They need to put together a 4-3 week in the worst way.
I feel like this article was targeted at me, and I appreciate it! We'll, not ENTIRELY targeted. I've never been one of the "don't trade our mid-tier prospects" guys. I'm all for it. If they can swing deals for guys they believe have higher floors/ceilings if they can get their hands on them, I hope more than anything that they do it early and often. And if they can do it for rentals that can help now, all the better. BUT, I have been finding myself wondering quite a bit things like "could they get some guys that are going to contribute to a good team for a few years in exchange for Lugo/Wacha/Singer/Whoever" (though I'd still love to see them unload Singer, I just really want him to be someone else's problem). And that really shouldn't be my attitude. I've let myself slip into a planning-for-next-year-only brain space with the Royals over the past mostly decade, and I gotta stop that. So, thanks for the gentle Come to Jesus!
Sorry about the typos. I hate posting on my phone. Yes, phone, I know I type the wrong word every time because I have fat fingers. No, that doesn't mean it's a real word.
Ha no biggie on that. We all typo. Hell, I do it in the articles that I make people pay to read!
My issue with true selling is two-fold. I do think they can get a decent amount for Lugo (but not as much as the start to his season would indicate) and they can probably get back something for Singer. But who else is bringing back much? Wacha is a risk with his option year. I've said that from the start. The rest of the guys you'd move are Hunter Renfroe (bad plus the option), John Schreiber (really bad lately), Nick Anderson (super inconsistent), Chris Stratton (better than the numbers, but not bringing much back) and Will Smith (pretty solid lately, but underwhelming peripherals). So that leads to the second point of isn't that doing a disservice to fans who have sat through absolute garbage for seven years? If you're not getting that much back, why do it?
The rotation is too good to not be in the race. I’ll still stand by that. “In the race” can mean a slow decent and 7 games out in September…but you’re still in it for most of the year.
You still have to be a buyer. We may not have top end talent….they guys you think could be the top end don’t move. That’s fine. But everyone else….if you can get a year of control on Koepech for instance. Just move them. If you can’t replace some mid 20 level prospects in two years….this thing isn’t going to work.
That's pretty much what I'm saying. I'm not even sure who the biggest star to be traded will be, but I don't think the Royals can or should be in on that. But go get average players.
If we are talking a Ward or a Koepech….I’m pretty sure we would still have both for next year right? So in theory we would be better next year as well. Maybe the ask is too high IDK. But it seems like any 10-15 range prospect would be fine to move. Again, for this thing to work long term it’s gonna have to be from the farm system. You are going to have to be able to replace them. Give it two drafts and cycles….they should not miss a beat.
Ward's actually under team control through 2026, I believe. Kopech through next year, yeah. So you're right. The issue I'm seeing with Ward is he might be the best outfielder traded, so there might be some inflation because of competition. It's a rough look at outfielders this season on the trade market.
Well, they are in a tough spot right now. You can play pitching and defense but only if the bullpen doesn’t suck. You can play offense….but only if you have a capable bottom half of the lineup. The rotation is still nails. I expect two of three from Miami just with Ragans and Lugo going to start the series. IDK what to expect from Cleveland…..but the longer the season goes the more I look at the pitching matchups. They have Ragans and Lugo each throwing twice this week I think. They really should have at least a .500 week and probably, hopefully, better.
If all goes to plan, they'll start and end the week with their two horses, which is a good thing.
In fact, I’d rather move the guys that are closer. Mainly because I want the guys who have been in the “system” since Q and the coaching staff was in place. More just to see if any difference and my own curiosity really. The guys that were from the prior regime could all work. Don’t get me wrong. But I kinda wanna see the guys who have come through this system the whole time to see if any difference. Which could be hard to tell anyway.
I think most of the guys who could/would be moved were part of the organization before this group came in, so that seems likely. I'm assuming you're talking about guys like Waters, Pratto, Lynch, etc. and while none are bringing back a huge return, I do think they can help lessen some of the prospect burden too. With so many playoff teams, maybe a near big leaguer entices a team that hopes to not be selling next season.
Yeah pretty much that crew but the time to trade them was a couple years ago and the Royals clearly didn’t know what they had. So that is pretty much just a second our third piece now….which has a place. I’d actually move Cross though. He was a DM guy, hasn’t been with this staff the whole time. Not exactly a consistent guy but supposedly has the talent. I mean, maybe that is the main piece for Ward. Of which….three years of average mlb outfielder for Cross….yeah, I’d probably do it.
I think three years would be a minimum I'd trade Cross for. He's a legit prospect and should be a starter in the big leagues, maybe as soon as next season.
Great article David. While I see what the fans you are talking about are saying I sit here and look at the returns for Soler, Merrifield, Barlow, Benintendi, Duffy etc etc and I see 0 big leaguers ever acquired in trade by the Royals. It’s time to identify guys that won’t make it and send them out to everyone.
Now for it to matter won’t Bobby, Vinnie, Salvy, Massey, MJ, Marsh, at least half the bullpen have to bounce back from their slumps? Yep. But it’s not a given you’ll be this close even next year! So protect your top ~5-7 future MLB contributors and make it happen. Package Pratto and Waters and get a reliever! (Small) Improvements don’t have to hurt that bad.
I'll argue slightly with the zero big leaguers. So far, yes, but I think the Barlow and Benintendi deals can and will change that. Henry Williams is a nice return for Barlow. He may never make it, but he's a legitimate prospect. And I think both Beck Way and Chandler Champlain are big leaguers at some point.
But yeah, the bigger issue is that Witt/Salvy/Vinnie went 1 for 32 against Texas (I think). You're not going to win many games when those three do that.
Ok ok you’re right. Either way the Royals sold for many years in a row and did not exactly reel in solid major leaguers left and right.
Definitely not. I just looked at least year's returns for my examples above. Average players get back average prospects. Average prospects are generally below average bets to make it and even lower than that to make it and make an impact.
Are we just pretending the trade of Aroldis Chapman for Cole Ragans didn't happen?
No, of course not. But I’m not looking for an Aroldis Chapman type trade. Don’t have the horses for those guys.
Thanks for recognizing MJ. We have criticized him so much, and rightly so, this year that it’s only fair to give him some credit when it’s due. His defense has also been stellar. Also, Isbel has shown some offensive improvement over the past 3 weeks. I will be watching and hoping for consistency out of these two players.
Isbel has looked MUCH better, only to now be hurt, which happened last year too. He had just started to look better before the hamstring injury. Hopefully this back thing only keeps him out a couple of days and he comes back hitting like he had - .333/.361/.576 in his last 11 games.
Isbel has a fairly significant injury history I feel like. It doesn’t seem like the first time he’s starting to hit better and then gets sidetracked.
Does anyone know if CJ Alexander is any good at third. Is it possible Garcia could play center? I know you are going to say no. But if all the outfielders suck…..something has to be tried. Lol.
Alexander isn't a good third baseman, I know that. I have no idea if Garcia can play center. I know that they gave him some time out there last spring and he hasn't seen the outfield again. That's what I can tell you.
MJ and Izzy are so much fun to watch in the field, and even though their batting averages are anemic overall, it seems that Izzy often hits when it counts and that he battles at every PA. The injury was icing on the crap cake this week. It’s good to see signs of life in MJ’s bat, though. He has so much ground to make up.
Regarding the fans, I just have to laugh at everyone on twitter/facebook, or any other social media that are convinced it's just so easy to fix the problems. I have a favorite poster on several of the Royals Facebook sites who is convinced JJ is "sitting on his ass" because none of the 150 trades he's been advocating for since spring training have happened.
Right now, it feels so much like 2023, it's a struggle for me to continue to have hope. This weekend was brutal. Saturday and Sunday I turned off the game the second they gave up a run, it just felt like they weren't going to fight back. And it sucked to be right about that. But they have just been too good for the first couple of months for me to throw in the towel.
People believe that JJ just has his phone out waiting for it to ring. He's making calls. It takes two teams to make a deal and there aren't that many teams dealing yet for various reasons. A lot of teams want to add talent, but not many are ready to get rid of theirs.
I've said it before, will say it again: fans are hilarious.
There are only a few teams that know they're serious contenders. A lot of teams are like the Royals, hopeful but not sure they have what it takes, so they're not ready to buy OR sell.
There's a reason deals tend to happen at the deadline.
Schreiber defied fate for most of April. He was striking nobody out and getting soft (or fortunate, maybe) contact. But a K/9 of under 6 was always going to catch up to him.
Now, I've heard rumors that he's a double agent and is still on the Red Sox payroll and is trying to make sure they get a postseason spot. I've also heard that the starting pitchers beat him with baseball bats after Friday night's performance. As far as I can tell, neither of those are true. :)
A little gallows humor for a bleak and unbearably hot Monday.
The difference, in my opinion, between Schreiber succeeding that way in April and failing now is that in April, you thought that he'd find the strikeouts again like he has for the last three years. So when some things turned on batted ball luck, it'd be counteracted. It hasn't at all.
As brutal as watching 22 straight scoreless innings is (and something like 18 out of 27 1-2-3 innings plus two more with only three batters at the plate this weekend), they're still not even halfway to their own (and the live-ball American League) record of 45 straight scoreless that happened while they were still in a race in 2017. It can always get worse, and I feel somewhat confident that it won't this time.
That was freaking brutal that season. I'll even go one farther and say that I think the Royals score in the first tonight.
I like the way you think, and if they could actually get three or four early, with the way Ragans has been pitching this month it could be lights-out early for the Marlins.
They always do seem to loosen the belts and relax after a bad road trip. Fingers crossed.
My subscription to this Substack renews at the end of the month, and I don’t think I’ve ever needed to read it more than today. This last week felt like all of 2023: like we were finding ways to do less than enough no matter what. Like we were making bad teams look like the Yankees. Weirdly, the last two losses to the Rangers hurt less than the previous few, because we were never really in it.
We’re 5 games over .500 and it feels like we’re 10 games under. It’s hard to believe this month that we were eagerly anticipating the Guardians series last month because we genuinely wanted to know who was better.
This whole week felt like Maikel Garcia’s face lately.
I’m hoping Massey is a spark plug, but this is obviously a deeper problem than one guy on offense.
Last month you wrote at one point about Bobby’s puzzling lack of pull power. It still feels like he’s figuring things out there, which is a weird thing to say about a player near the top of the AL’s offensive stats in several categories. Has there been improvement there? Obviously not in the last week, but overall?
He's been pulling the ball for power a lot more. I don't know if it's to the level of last season, but it's been enough that I haven't even thought to look it up.
The big thing for this offense is they need to score early. It's like a losing streak or any other sort of streak. If you get into another day and the same things keep happening, you develop a "here we go again" mindset. If you can nip that right away, it doesn't happen.
I know you’ve mentioned the 40 man roster and the difficulties with it on guys not on the 40 man. But I am still a little surprised we haven’t seen Rave or Pennington. So the question isn’t so much about them but do you think they are using them as trade bait? I’m mainly curious if we can look back in a couple months and think….I see what they were doing now.
If I were Pennington…I’d be like…what more do you want. Just trade me already if you aren’t going to give me a chance. Lol.
I'm less surprised about Rave than Pennington. The Royals don't buy the numbers in AAA right now. I think they've made that clear. But that makes Pennington even more curious.
I enjoyed the article, thanks. My only point is that the Royals' "20th prospect" is not the same as the Yankees "20th prospect". The Royals' farm system is weak, so teams with good farm systems can trade lower level prospects and get something decent in return. The Royals' system will have to give up a higher level prospect to get that same decent return. Just my opinion.
In a vacuum, that's true, but that's partially why I went a few spots higher when I gave the Royals example. But also, I've heard from many people that the issue with the Royals system isn't 11-30, it's 1-10. I talk to lots of scouts who really like the back half of their top prospects. They're on par or better than a lot of good systems there. It's just that there isn't the star power to get there.
I hope you are right. It is just when you look at the different top 100 prospect lists, there is one Royal on it. Perhaps the guys 11-30 as you said will eventually make it. I do fully understand though that just because a guy is top ranked, doesn't mean he will be a top notch major league player.
A couple points about this. One, outside of the top 50 or so, I’ve heard that 51-150 are really fairly interchangeable. Maybe you’re not going to find #51 off many lists but there are about 100-110 guys who any reasonable person might list in their top 100. I’m not saying the Royals system is better than it appears because of that, but just one thing to consider.
And the other is that there are no 11-30 team prospects in a top 100. So the fact that the Royals only have the one really has very little bearing on the back half of their top prospects.
Well to your point David. I think the Royals are ranked in the high teens or the low 20’s. If they only have 1 top 100 prospect. It is already telling us what the industry has already said. They don’t have the top end talent….but clearly at 20 let’s say, they have prospects and talent. So I kinda feel like our 20th ranked prospect is pretty in line with every other team. Obviously, it can changed based on team but its gonna be in that same grouping. So I’d push back a bit that our 20th ranked prospect isn’t in line with others. It’s just the top end prospects. We don’t have them. That’s really all.
Which is pretty much the point I've been making since before the season. Their top end doesn't compete with other teams. The rest does.
I'd like to retract my comment from the other day. This team stinks. (Edit: I'm kidding. At least a bit.)
You know what? You stink!
Sorry, I lashed out.
It's all the losing. It frustrates people.
With Boston passing the Royals for the last playoff spot and looking better than the Royals, it looks bleak for the Royals to nab a wildcard spot. The other teams in contention appear to be better. The bullpen is so bad, why not try someone different like Walter Pennington? He is pitching to a 1.80 ERA the last time I looked and has thrown upwards of 50 innings. How could he be worse than Schreiber or Zerpa? Time for them to try something and jettison the guys having a really bad year. Maybe they will strike gold like they did in Ragans last year.
I'm hearing some rather loud stomping footsteps. Those belong to the Astros. Nobody wants to hear about that, but now they're only 4.5 games behind Boston and they have Verlander and Blanco back on the mound (the latter took a second no-hit bid into the eighth inning the other night). They also know what it takes.
I have a lot of friends in Houston so I heard all of their wailing about how badly the Astros were playing in April and May, but it's no surprise to me that they're back in the race. I think they and the Rangers will have a strong second half of the season and make the West really competitive.
Agreed on that. The Mariners are good but they aren’t going to just stroll to this division title.
I would imagine Pennington will eventually get his shot. The numbers are excellent. The profile is something I've heard from more than a couple of people works in the minors but won't in the majors. At some point, they have to find out for sure.
Agree with you 100% David. I went to all 3 games against Texas (unfortunately) and wanted to share a few "unprofessional" observations. 1) After the team gave up 5 runs after leading in the first, the demeaner for the majority of the team changed. Garcia was the one that showed up nearly every at bat, especially after each strikeout. He walked so slowing to the dugout that a pitch was being delivered to the next batter. He just looked defeated. 2) There was no hustle on ground out with the exception of Bobby, MJ and Fraiser. They literally stopped running almost out of the box. The worst was Garcia who hit one yesterday deep in the hole, the SS had to make a good play and backhand. As soon as Garcia saw he caught it, he jogged the rest of the way. I thought it might be a close play. Maybe it's just a different game than when I played but credit to those 3 that put the burners on even when it was hit to the pitcher (MJ). 3) For what it's worth, I was curious if I could predict the pitches on what Singer was going to throw. On one hitter, I got 6 in a row and over a couple of batters I was over 80%. I guess it isn't a big deal given he throws typically one of his 2 pitches so you have a 50/50 chance. However, I did it after there were some really hard hit pitches that got outstanding defense. 4) I don't recall ever seeing so many popup outs over a 3 game period especially ones that are foul or don't even get out of the infield (usually on the 1st or 2nd pitch of the AB). I still believe this team can roll over 7-8 in a row and get us back on track. Maybe the home venue will get them back on track.
This is their first really tough stretch of the year. Before this one, you could chalk it up to just playing great teams, but when you start to lose to bad and mediocre teams, it can get to them. Garcia's body language is pretty brutal right now. He's an emotional player and that can carry him through good stretches, but it's something he needs to learn to be better about through down stretches. Part of the development process I guess.
And yeah, Singer is super predictable and the offense is just way off. Hopefully getting back home can be the mental reset they need.
Agree David. Adversity builds character and this team is definitely a young team. The team will be stronger and this stretch will make the Royals stronger later on in the season.
Here's hoping!
I was at two of the three games against Texas as well (also unfortunately) and thought the same thing you did Bill. I told my wife I don't think I've ever been to a game with more weak pop-outs. And the body language wasn't good, but hey, it's their first extended funk, and they will learn from this I hope. They learned a lot about winning games over the first two months, but the season is a grind...and it may even be more of a grind when you start to develop expectations and then the funk hits. Hoping we break out of it tonight! Maikel looks totally worn down by his recent stretch. And while still hustling like crazy, even Bobby looked down to me yesterday. I also wonder if he presses when he comes back home to Texas. He hasn't hit here and has a gaggle of friends and family at all these games.
I was wondering that about Witt too. But he did have a good series there last year. The sample is too small to really gain any conclusions.
If we had players in the minors that could even remotely help, they’d be up here. Trade them away.
What are your thoughts on Lynch IV or Bubic going to the pen for now?
I still don’t think Lynch will work as a reliever, but Bubic is interesting because the changeup and slider get whiffs.
In the minors do they start all pitchers out as starters and then send them to the pen, or do they determine that before they are drafted?
It’s kind of a mix. Some are drafted as relievers. Some are starters who they move to the bullpen immediately. Many are starters who get moved though.