Weekend in Review: The AAA/MLB Gap, A Royals Sweep, Player of the Week and What's Next

The Royals did what good teams are supposed to do and took care of business against a team they're better than.

There are some who will downplay a team’s success and make it seem somehow less important that they do things like gets a sweep when the games are against a team that isn’t any good. But the truth is that the schedule is what the schedule is and wins against the bad teams count (mostly) the same as wins against the good teams. I only say mostly because there are now tie-breakers in baseball, so a season series is actually important if the two teams end up tied at the end of the year. But that’s an issue to be concerned with for another day. The point is that a sweep is a sweep and while they were supposed to win these games, that doesn’t mean they are guaranteed to win.

So the question I’ve been asking myself and people in my life over the last couple of days is now pretty interesting. The Royals are 29-19. They’re 10 games over .500 for the first time since 2015. At this moment, after the Guardians swept the Twins, they are 1.5 games out of first and four games up on third, which also means they’re four games up on the final Wild Card spot. With 114 games to go, we are not anywhere near close enough to start thinking too much about that, but we’re also not that far away from it. So, I’ll pose the question here and then give my answer.

What is the point where it becomes a disappointment if they don’t make the playoffs? To clarify, right now, it would be welcome and loved and very cool, but there will be a point that they should make it. For some that point may be today. For others that point may be tomorrow or a month from now. For me, it’s June 17. They play three against Detroit, three against Tampa Bay, four against Minnesota and three agents San Diego before they have a day off and play Cleveland for the first time. They play a stretch of games from June 4 to June 16 where they play the Guardians, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers over 13 games. Those four teams are 120-71 combined. So that’s 26 games. If they go, say, 13-13 in those 26 games, the date that I will begin expecting a postseason berth is June 17. That’s not to say I don’t believe they can make it now. I just don’t expect it. Yet.

The Gap Between AAA and MLB

I wrote about this last week when I was looking at some possible internal moves for the Royals, but I want to bring this up again because of some interesting conversations I had over the weekend. I’ll link the article in The Athletic again if you’d like to read it. But the gist of the whole idea is that there are a number of reasons why there is a bigger gap between the majors and minors than ever before. It’s something that I believe is giving the Royals some pause in calling players up to help a struggling offense. It’s easy to say that this player or that player can’t be worse than someone on the big league roster, but Jackson Holliday’s .059/.111/.059 line with a 50 percent strikeout rate might say otherwise.

No, one top prospect coming to the big leagues and struggling doesn’t mean everyone who comes to the big leagues will struggle mightily, but it does speak to the Buddy Bell axiom of never claiming it can’t get worse. So while fans are perplexed at how Drew Waters is hitting .305/.378/.519 in AAA and Nick Loftin is hitting .293/.398/.440 in AAA and Devin Mann is hitting .303/.403/.477 in AAA and none can get a shot over struggling players like MJ Melendez, Nelson Velazquez, Garrett Hampson and Hunter Renfroe, there might be a reason and it might go a little deeper than just that the Royals aren’t sure they can get it done at the big league level.

The Royals famously don’t have the best farm system in the game, which means that if they are looking to make trades to upgrade their roster, they have to get creative. Sure they can look to move players like Javier Vaz, Austin Charles and others to avoid trading their top prospects, but I’ve been told by multiple people now that there’s a thought process to potentially utilizing talent that is either close or has been at the big league level to help the return. I’m not saying that’s unequivocally the case, but I believe that’s a part of the thought process, if not a big part.

Does Waters help to get back Reid Garrett from the Mets? Maybe there’s a swap involving Loftin and James Outman from the Dodgers. I haven’t thought deep enough into the specifics of what these types of players might offer to other teams, but I do think the rationale is at least reasonable. And you might say that if the Royals are concerned about these players, then other teams should and probably do have the same ones. And maybe they do. But I can tell you that concerns become knowledge if these players end up coming to the big leagues and proving the concerns true. I’m not sure I agree with it, but I understand it.

Of course, who knows what happens today? All three players I mentioned sat in yesterday’s big Omaha win, so maybe they’re coming up today to shore up the offense, or at least attempt to do so.

The Weekend Sweep

Friday - Royals 6, A’s 2: Cole Ragans Gets His Groove Back

After his last start, people were really doubting Ragans. I guess I sort of get it, but also that’s such a weird response for a guy who has been as good as he’s been. Still, it certainly wouldn’t hurt for him to go out and have a good game against an offense that had shown flashes here and there, but was there for the taking. And he showed up. He threw seven shutout innings, allowed just two hits and struck out seven while walking two.

There was a point when I was noticing that his fastball velocity was down a bit, and it was overall. He averaged just 95 MPH compared to his season average of 96.3 MPH coming into the game. But afterward, Matt Quatraro noted that he thought he might have been backing off it a bit in order to get a little better command. And let me tell you, it worked. The fastball did get hit harder than you want with an average exit velocity of 93.4 MPH on nine in play, but he had eight whiffs and five called strikes. The A’s were also chasing his four-seamer out of the zone more than teams had been.

And the velocity? Well, I’ll be keeping an eye on it on Wednesday afternoon against the Tigers, but he was able to reach back for it when he needed it. Here was his 94th and final pitch of the game.

When you can add and subtract throughout a game and then be able to dial up 98.6 MPH on your final pitch, I think that will certainly play.

It wasn’t just the fastball, of course. As usual, his changeup was filthy. He threw 29 of them total, got 20 swings and seven whiffs. he also got 10 foul balls and chases on 56 percent of them that were out of the zone. It was absolutely nasty for him. Just look at the bottom drop out of this thing.

That is certainly the bounceback he was needing. And it helped that the offense did what it has done so much this season. They scored a first inning run, which was enough for Ragans, but then they went silent again against a Rule 5 pick making his first big league start. Now, I will say in the offense’s defense that the A’s didn’t announce their starter until pretty close to game time. I do wonder how much preparation time they had, but also it’s not like Mitch Spence wasn’t a possibility.

Still, they basically immediately got to the A’s bullpen against Austin Adams right after I’d mentioned him as a trade possibility for the Royals. Salvador Perez walked, which was his 14th of the year, putting him ahead of his entire 2015 season. Then Michael Massey fell down in the count 1-2 and Adams left a slider in a bad spot.

That will work. Just like that, the Royals tripled their lead, which ultimately would have been enough if they didn’t keep going. But they did. Melendez worked a walk, which was his first since April 26 and the A’s went to the bullpen again to bring in Brandon Bielak, who they had just acquired. Renfroe broke his bat on a single and Kyle Isbel hit into a force out. Just when the A’s had a chance to get out of the inning, Maikel Garcia unloaded.

I’ll get to him in a bit, but he’s on quite a heater.

The Royals brought in Matt Sauer to close out a six-run game and he did what he’s done so often lately and gave up a couple of runs. I mentioned this on Twitter, but the Royals probably need to make a move with Sauer. They like him. I understand why they picked him in the Rule 5. And I love that they did. He’s just not ready for the big leagues right now, and that’s okay! The Royals are too good to fill a roster spot with someone like him, so I hope they can work out a deal with the Yankees to keep him and get him the development he needs. They’ll have to make a decision on Carlos Hernandez soon with his rehab coming up in a few days, so maybe that’ll force their hand.

Saturday - Royals 5, A’s 3: Vinnie Buttons Up, Lugo Keeps Up His Strikeouts

Through five starts, Seth Lugo had a strong 2.03 ERA, but just 14 strikeouts in 31 innings. That was a rate of 11.1 percent, which if you weren’t aware, isn’t good and success with a rate that low is not especially sustainable. It didn’t make a ton of sense to me given that he’s always gotten a reasonable number of strikeouts and even after moving to the rotation, he was still around league average last year. He struck out nine in his next game. Then eight. Then five. Then 12. And then on Saturday night, he struck out 10 more.

It took him five more starts to more than double his strikeout rate. He’s now sitting at 22.7 percent, which is just half a percent below last season. He’s walking just 5.1 percent of hitters. He’s getting more swings on pitches outside the zone this season and he’s getting a fair amount less contact than last year on those. He is getting hit in the zone, so it makes sense that he’s trying to live just outside the zone a little more often.

In this one, his slurve was doing the trick. He threw 19 of them, which is the most he’s thrown in a game this year and tied for the most he’s thrown in a game since becoming a starter again last year. He got 11 swings and six whiffs. He did allow two in play and they were both hit hard, which isn’t great, but it was a really great pitch for i’m in this one. His slider and curve also got a bunch of whiffs, and in the end, he had 16 whiffs on 43 swings with another 22 called strikes. After getting 43 whiffs and called strikes combined in his last start, he added 38 more in this one.

What he’s doing right now is really incredible, and the fact that he gave up two runs over 5.2 innings and that was one of his worst starts is insane. He leads all of baseball in innings pitched. He’s fourth in ERA among qualified starters (and first in the AL). His walk rate is 20th in baseball (13th in the AL). And his strikeout rate since April 26th is sixth in all of baseball. I’m not going to say Lugo is the American League Cy Young Award Winner, but if they voted today, he might very well be. He also leads the American League in wins and is just one off the eight that led the 2023 Royals.

He needed some help in this one, first from his offense and then from his bullpen. After the Royals took a quick 2-0 lead in the first, Lugo gave them right back on a home run to Seth Brown, who always kills the Royals. He held the A’s down the rest of the way obviously, but the Royals offense had to tack on. In the fifth, Garcia doubled and Bobby Witt Jr. grounded out, which brought up Vinnie Pasquantino with two outs. At that moment, Pasquantino hadn’t had a hit since May 13, another longish hitless streak.

The story goes that Quatraro told him to button up his jersey. He was obviously joking around with him, but told him it looked unprofessional. And on an 0-2 pitch, he hit a sharp line drive to right to drive in the run. The Royals tacked on in the sixth with a Velazquez single to score Michael Massey. But John Schreiber gave up a rare run in the seventh, so Kyle Isbel had to take matters into his hands to get the lead back to two.

I know Isbel gets a lot of flack for his offense or lack of it, but that’s a nice swing on a big fastball from Lucas Erceg. If he could just do that a little more often, boy that would be great to add to his defense.

Angel Zerpa handled the eighth with no issue. He now has a 1.47 ERA in 20 games with 20 strikeouts and just three walks in 18.1 innings. I will say that I was very wrong on him. And when he’s averaging 96.7 MPH with that sinker, I’ll take it. James McArthur gave up a couple of soft singles in the ninth to give us a bit of a scare, but he struck out the last two hitters he faced and the Royals had won a series and clinched yet another non-losing week.

Friday - Royals 8, A’s 4: Brady Singer’s Bounceback and Extra Base Hits

Ragans needed a good start and I’d argue Singer needed it even more. He got it too. In some ways, I think he might have even been a touch better than Ragans with a couple more strikeouts. But Ragans did go the extra inning, so maybe we’ll call it a draw. In the end, Singer went six innings with one run on six hits allowed and nine strikeouts against just one walk. His ERA came down to 2.70 and the top of the Royals rotation performed as planned once again.

Singer is interesting because the big issue is that he seems to refuse to throw his newer pitches, particularly when he’s struggling. The problem is that when his sinker and slider are good, he doesn’t really need a third (or fourth) pitch. That’s pretty true of every pitcher, honestly. When their two best are good, they generally don’t really need others. And yesterday, Singer’s slider was outstanding and his sinker was really good, though not as good by the numbers as I’d have expected.

He ended up getting eight whiffs on 21 slider swings and generally kept the contact weak. The A’s were chasing it and it was getting the job done. I was surprised to see the CSW numbers for the sinker with just one whiff and eight called strikes. So often, we’ll see one or two whiffs on it and then 17 called strikes. So to only be at 26 percent there was a little surprising. But, with those working, he utilized his four-seamer a bit more and actually ended up with some chase on it and two whiffs.

He had a little trouble in the fifth and sixth innings. In the fifth, Witt misjudged a Max Schuemann line drive and it was a single. Then Singer got a strikeout. Abraham Toro hit a little grounder down the line that was a double and Singer walked his only batter of the day. But he was able to get Brent Rooker to ground out to end the threat. In the sixth, Singer had two outs before he gave up two singles that out runners on first and third with two outs, but he made a great pitch to Schuemann to get a strikeout to end that threat and his day.

Then the Royals did what good teams do. After the A’s missed an opportunity in the fifth, the Royals struck. Massey drew just his second walk of the year and then was moved to second on a sacrifice bunt by Hampson. Garcia hit a booming double to left center to score him. Garcia then stole third (he’s 11 for 11 this year) and scored on a Witt sacrifice fly. The A’s couldn’t score and the Royals promptly put up two.

In the sixth, Freddy Fermin singled and Renfroe walked. Another sacrifice bunt, this time by Dairon Blanco, moved them each up 90 feet. With Hampson on deck, the A’s intentionally walked Massey, but the Royals countered with Pasquantino, with a fully buttoned jersey.

Yes, that’s right, Pasquantino tripled as a pinch hitter. It was a nice piece of hitting to get the bat head to the ball and he cleared the bases. It is the first pinch hit triple for the Royals since Emmanuel Rivera did it back on May 11, 2022 against the Rangers. He also cleared the bases with his. That made the game 8-1, which put it into Sauer territory and he did what he’s done so much lately and gave up runs, but it didn’t matter because the game was too far out of reach and the Royals had their sweep.

Player of the Week

Another winning week for the Royals would lead you to believe there are a lot of possibilities here, but the reality is that there weren’t a ton of great weeks. Ragans threw seven shutout innings. I just struggle to give a Player of the Week to a guy who only took the field once. Singer pitched twice, but once just wasn’t very good. There were legitimate offensive candidates. Until Sunday, Witt didn’t have a great week, but Perez hit .400/.500/.500 with four runs batted in. Massey hit .318/.346/.545 with 4 RBI and 4 runs scored. But the best of the week, in my opinion, was Maikel Garcia, who hit .333/.333/.619 with three doubles, a home run, six RBIs and five runs scored. That hitless streak from April feels like a long time ago now. In his last 28 games, Garcia is hitting .302/.344/.422 with 10 doubles, two homers, 18 RBIs and 18 runs scored. That works.

The Week Ahead

As I mentioned, the next opponent for the Royals is the Tigers. While they aren’t a great team, they’re at least decent and maybe a little better. They lost their series finale against the Diamondbacks yesterday but did put up some numbers in their first two games, both wins. I don’t think I expected to type this sentence, well ever, but Andy Ibanez has really helped their offense out since he’s been back. They have some threats, but they are a bit like the Royals in that their lineup just isn’t really deep enough beyond their big bats. They’re carried by pitching and the Royals will see three good ones over the series:

• Monday: Reese Olson vs. Michael Wacha

• Tuesday: Casey Mize vs. Alec Marsh

• Wednesday: Tarik Skubal vs. Cole Ragans

Woo boy, that Wednesday afternoon pitching matchup looks tasty. But the first two will be tough for a still iffy Royals offense, so they’re going to need to get the sort of starting pitching they’ve gotten all season. We know what the Tigers bullpen is, which is pretty darn solid, so they’ll need to have a shot by the sixth to really be able to win a couple of games. And make no mistake, they need to win two of three here. That’ll go a long way toward 13-13 or better over these next 26 games.

After Detroit, they’ll see the Rays for the first time. Tampa Bay was off to a slow start, but since being swept by the White Sox in April (that’s why you never dismiss a sweep, no matter who you’re sweeping), they’ve gone 12-7. I wouldn’t say the bats have come around, but they’ve pitched much better. Overall, they have to be pretty disappointed with guys like Randy Arozarena and Jose Siri offensively and their pitching staff hasn’t been what we expect of them usually, but it feels like just a matter of time before they get on track. Maybe they can wait until a week from now.