Oh you never dismiss a sweep. I actually felt like yesterday was a little bit of a trap game. But hey, they pulled it out. Again, I don’t think they are this good. But they keep saying they are. At some point I guess I will believe. So no, I don’t expect playoffs yet. But we are getting closer. And the longer they go without any significant injuries…shoot I’m pretty much just on board with it being a magical season as far as most things going their way.
I know you don’t think they are. But I kinda feel like as long as they are winning, they aren’t going to really make any changes and try to let guys figure it out. Personally, I sorta think we are the inflection point with the entire outfield. If you are making the decision that you are going with Isbel in center. That’s fine…but it can’t be Melendez/Velasquez/Renfoe in the other spots then. IDK, you are winning so you are getting away with it I guess.
I thought they were going to make changes prior to this series, but when they didn't, it got me asking questions. I don't have any inside info here, but I get the distinct impression that they're working the trade market hard and know that they have a little wiggle room right now because of the head start on winning. I agree, though. They can't run out this outfield every single day against some of those teams coming up. Again, they don't need great. They need competent. Even below average would be a huge bump.
Ok, I’ll take the bait. Honestly, there is no point in the season when I would be disappointed if they don’t make the playoffs. They are playing with house money this season. There’s even a part of me that thinks they will be better off if they don’t make it (see Diamondbacks this season or those seasons when the Chiefs went 13-3 and flamed out in the first playoff game and were bad the next season). I’d rather see a sustained success than a one season fluke where they don’t even make the ALCS.
I absolutely see what you’re saying, but I would counter with the point that nothing is guaranteed. You could argue that they could have set themselves up for longer sustained success had they lost in the 2015 ALDS and traded some of the core guys, but I don’t think anyone would give away the World Series for 3 more lottery tickets. This is obviously very different, but I believe you win when you can win, within reason of course.
David, thanks for commenting on the notion of getting the job done. KC has the marks of a good team for specially this type of series sweep. Get me past the "June Swoon" portion of the schedule and I'll be thinking playoffs. Little closer to the trade deadline and the midway point.
I do believe KC has the minor league talent in upper ranks to pull off a trade to help their season. Players like Waters, Loftin, Eaton, C. Hernandez, Klein and some of their AA guys like Wallace could be attractive to a rebuild. Remember KC's desire to have "major league ready" talent.
If the Royals are serious about putting together the best team they can, a move on Sauer needs to be done. Omaha has better bullpen experience and Lyles will need a spot eventually (what is the story with him?) Rule 5 is good when KC had a season like last year but they need each player to contribute. Right now, Sauer is a mop up guy and contenders don't need that role.
Wednesday - what a match up and on a get away day too! Having said that, it will probably be a slugfest. That's baseball!
I obviously agree on Sauer. They need a full bullpen and not someone they only trust in blowouts. I’d bet his time is running super short with some of these guys working their way back from injury and others showing they deserve a big league spot. As for Lyles, I don’t know why he’s gone, but I’ve heard he might not be back. Might is obviously hedging, but I don’t know that there’s any real indication of when on him.
I'm really scratching my head on Lyles. I never, ever remember someone going on "permanent" personal leave during a season (and without any "leaks" fro the press).
I would say it’s more about people who know or having an idea understanding it’s not their place to say anything. If he was a more important player, I’d bet we’d get some info publicly. I’ll also say that I think that sucks, but it’s the world we live in.
Holy crap...I'd forgotten about Lyles completely. And I had to stop for a minute & remember why/how he left ( I was thinking injury, then remembered it was that weird "gotta go" deal ).
What are your thoughts on Walter Pennington? He keeps putting up impressive numbers at Omaha and another LH in the pen is nice. Trade bait or part of KC's beloved inventory?
At some point, they have to give it a go with him. I think the hesitancy is that the profile is a little concerning. He doesn’t have velocity and his spin rates don’t necessarily indicate he’ll be able to carry over the success, but I’d give it a shot sooner than later. The issue is a little bit the 40-man roster. They have candidates to cut for sure but Bubic will need his spot back in a couple of weeks once his rehab is up, so that would be two spots required. Again, not that they can’t find those spots, but it does add a wrinkle.
beyond reason, today may be the day i am disappointed they dont make the playoffs. They have done enough to make me think they can do it. This next month is rough, even the tigers have a decent chance to take series. Not bitter disappointment though, and if they make it through this rough stretch Ill just be happy they gave themselves a chance. Not coming close to .500 would leave a worst taste in my mouth at that point. If they do get past wild card, I will reset my taste meter
But I think your words indicate an important distinction. They *can* do it, but at what point do you *expect* them to do it. You may be there today even with that thought process, and that's great, but I think there's a bit of a difference there.
IDK I may not ever think they "should" make playoffs, but maybe September 9th after back to back with guardians and twins. The AL central is looking pretty good. Who would have expected them to still be holding their own with the AL east at end of May? I will be checking the standings diligently the next few weeks
It really is two different questions. The fact that the Royals are off to a great start in the year the Central is actually good is SUPER annoying haha.
I shouldn’t be negative on a day where they are coming off a sweep. But at what point do we start becoming concerned about Vinny’s .313 obp? The offense is the only concern I have. So I hope you spot on with the trade market talk. But they can’t really have Vinny/Witt/or Salvy go in any slumps.
The fact that they are 10 games above .500 on the backs of the pitching and Witt/Salvy is pretty amazing. Everyone else has been…meh….but mostly…..blahhhhh…to puke….
I will point out that you say "on the backs of the pitching" as if it's not literally all five starters and at least three of the bullpen arms and maybe more. So you're really talking about roughly half the team. It's easy to look at individual hitters and the pitching staff as a whole and make it feel like they've got 15 guys and three are performing well when really they have 26 and like 14 are performing well.
That’s true. When you put it that way it is over half the team. It’s just the seperate of offense and pitching is how I think of it. But when you are never out of a game…..you can always pull it out if you are in it long enough. The pitching has been incredible. This is what the Rays feel like all the time. Interesting…..
I may be wrong here, but I would guess that teams that overperform their preseason projections generally do it with above average pitching staffs. If it’s 3-1 in the fifth, you can come back. If it’s 8-1, you can’t. I suppose there are teams that get way more offense than expected and win that way, but I sort of doubt it happens often.
I think expected stats are a bit of a crutch at times, but they also indicate what batted ball metrics show a player "should" have done. Vinnie's xBA/xOBP/xSLG/xwOBA line is .275/.354/.483/.364 compared to what's actually happened - .236/.313/.420/.320.
So if he continues to make contact the way he has in addition to working walks and limiting strikeouts (which he's struck out a fair amount lately), the expectation would be for that line to come up. Until he's not putting up batted ball metrics and contact metrics that indicate he's fine, I won't be worried about him.
I am amazed at how many out calls at first base have been reversed. A good example is the one on Friday with Salvador Perez beating out throw from third with umpire standing three feet away with clear view. I always assumed that umps did pretty good job making close calls but now I'm starting to have my doubts.
My answer to your question is today. If this team doesn't make the playoffs, I'll be disappointed. Not like "Quatraro has to be fired because he didn't get this collection of talent to the playoffs" disappointed, but still pretty bummed about a missed opportunity.
They have arguably: (1) the best pitcher in the AL, (2) he best all-around player in the AL in BWJr, and (3) another guy who is/should be in the MVP conversation in Salvy. They have more than enough talent around those 3 guys to be a playoff team, especially in the expanded wildcard era. Also, we're not going to get many more seasons like this from Salvy, so failing to make the playoffs with him playing so well would be particularly sad.
Clearly, injuries happen and could totally derail this season, but that would be a reason for the heartbreak, not an exception to it. Quite a position to be in after a 106 loss season.
I don’t think I’m on the “more than enough” talent train quite yet. Until the starters have pitched more than 150 innings….they haven’t. Doesn’t mean they can’t, or they won’t, they just haven’t yet. I personally, don’t see enough talent on the offensive side. But it hasn’t mattered to this point. And what I’ve never really considered before mainly because hardly in this position….just get to the 150 inning mark with these guys and if they break down…we’ll you might have enough wins to bridge the gap at that point.
That makes total sense to me with your rationale. I posed the question a bit differently on Twitter that might be a better way to look at it. It’s not when do you believe they could make it, but when do you expect them to make it? Would your answer be the same?
Expect is a funny concept. I think they're better than 50% to make the playoffs - maybe close to 60% in my mind?
After writing that, I checked Fangraphs and see that they have the Royals at 46.6%, and the Twins at 58.1%, and I guess I think those 2 numbers should basically be reversed. I think it's likely a 2-team race between KC and CLE the rest of the way, and I'm expecting (there's that word) CLE to falter as the injuries catch up to them.
That said, I'm not sure where I would draw the line for "expect". 75%, maybe? Not there yet because there are too many variables this early in the year. Your mid-June suggestion seems about right to have a more solid feel on how things are likely to shake out.
And honestly it’s all personal opinion. You may believe we’ve seen enough and they should make it. I need a bit more, but I’m a lot closer than I expected to be at this time of the season.
I'm cautiously optimistic about their playoff chances, but I really want to see how they do against Cleveland (and also some more against Minnesota, even though they have played them). Need some wins against those teams to really convince me.
Yep, completely agree there. I feel like we keep saying “we’ll know more after these next __ games” but I also think the next 26 are huge for this team. Get to the 74-game mark at 40-34 or better and they’re in great shape, assuming health.
I’ve been bracing for June because that stretch from May 31-June 30 is going to be brutal. Would be ecstatic to stay at .500. If that happens then the Royals are making the playoffs barring catastrophic injuries.
I was listening to comments from Ned Yost, James Shields, and Alex Gordon about Salvy and how he has continued to play well and even gotten better with his defensive metrics. Since it was 2014 reunion weekend and HDH threw out the first pitch each night, their stats were being brought up. I saw one stat that said they are the only 3 bullpen arms to have over 65 appearances and sub 1.5 ERA. This made me think, does Salvador Perez deserve some of that credit for the success of HDH because of the way he called games and received those 3 players? I think that is a valid argument in favor of Salvy when the HOF come calling. Thoughts?
I’ve gotta say I think that’s a pretty big stretch and a little disrespectful to the great seasons those guys put up. In the sense that it’s a team effort and someone needs to catch the pitches, I guess, but I’d ask how he elevated those three while so many others have been terrible with Salvy behind the plate. His HOF case will come from his bat, the hopes that nobody cares about framing by the time he’s in the ballot and the improvement in that area and how long he can keep it up.
Oh you never dismiss a sweep. I actually felt like yesterday was a little bit of a trap game. But hey, they pulled it out. Again, I don’t think they are this good. But they keep saying they are. At some point I guess I will believe. So no, I don’t expect playoffs yet. But we are getting closer. And the longer they go without any significant injuries…shoot I’m pretty much just on board with it being a magical season as far as most things going their way.
I know you don’t think they are. But I kinda feel like as long as they are winning, they aren’t going to really make any changes and try to let guys figure it out. Personally, I sorta think we are the inflection point with the entire outfield. If you are making the decision that you are going with Isbel in center. That’s fine…but it can’t be Melendez/Velasquez/Renfoe in the other spots then. IDK, you are winning so you are getting away with it I guess.
I thought they were going to make changes prior to this series, but when they didn't, it got me asking questions. I don't have any inside info here, but I get the distinct impression that they're working the trade market hard and know that they have a little wiggle room right now because of the head start on winning. I agree, though. They can't run out this outfield every single day against some of those teams coming up. Again, they don't need great. They need competent. Even below average would be a huge bump.
Ok, I’ll take the bait. Honestly, there is no point in the season when I would be disappointed if they don’t make the playoffs. They are playing with house money this season. There’s even a part of me that thinks they will be better off if they don’t make it (see Diamondbacks this season or those seasons when the Chiefs went 13-3 and flamed out in the first playoff game and were bad the next season). I’d rather see a sustained success than a one season fluke where they don’t even make the ALCS.
I absolutely see what you’re saying, but I would counter with the point that nothing is guaranteed. You could argue that they could have set themselves up for longer sustained success had they lost in the 2015 ALDS and traded some of the core guys, but I don’t think anyone would give away the World Series for 3 more lottery tickets. This is obviously very different, but I believe you win when you can win, within reason of course.
I would still like to see them move Massey up to #2 in the order and drop everyone else down
My friend texted me (from the game) yesterday: this team is FUN!
Now that's something I haven't heard (about the Royals) in awhile--and I agree!
They are fun! And they’re almost never out of a game, which is not something we’ve been able to say for almost a decade.
David, thanks for commenting on the notion of getting the job done. KC has the marks of a good team for specially this type of series sweep. Get me past the "June Swoon" portion of the schedule and I'll be thinking playoffs. Little closer to the trade deadline and the midway point.
I do believe KC has the minor league talent in upper ranks to pull off a trade to help their season. Players like Waters, Loftin, Eaton, C. Hernandez, Klein and some of their AA guys like Wallace could be attractive to a rebuild. Remember KC's desire to have "major league ready" talent.
If the Royals are serious about putting together the best team they can, a move on Sauer needs to be done. Omaha has better bullpen experience and Lyles will need a spot eventually (what is the story with him?) Rule 5 is good when KC had a season like last year but they need each player to contribute. Right now, Sauer is a mop up guy and contenders don't need that role.
Wednesday - what a match up and on a get away day too! Having said that, it will probably be a slugfest. That's baseball!
I obviously agree on Sauer. They need a full bullpen and not someone they only trust in blowouts. I’d bet his time is running super short with some of these guys working their way back from injury and others showing they deserve a big league spot. As for Lyles, I don’t know why he’s gone, but I’ve heard he might not be back. Might is obviously hedging, but I don’t know that there’s any real indication of when on him.
I'm really scratching my head on Lyles. I never, ever remember someone going on "permanent" personal leave during a season (and without any "leaks" fro the press).
I would say it’s more about people who know or having an idea understanding it’s not their place to say anything. If he was a more important player, I’d bet we’d get some info publicly. I’ll also say that I think that sucks, but it’s the world we live in.
Holy crap...I'd forgotten about Lyles completely. And I had to stop for a minute & remember why/how he left ( I was thinking injury, then remembered it was that weird "gotta go" deal ).
What are your thoughts on Walter Pennington? He keeps putting up impressive numbers at Omaha and another LH in the pen is nice. Trade bait or part of KC's beloved inventory?
At some point, they have to give it a go with him. I think the hesitancy is that the profile is a little concerning. He doesn’t have velocity and his spin rates don’t necessarily indicate he’ll be able to carry over the success, but I’d give it a shot sooner than later. The issue is a little bit the 40-man roster. They have candidates to cut for sure but Bubic will need his spot back in a couple of weeks once his rehab is up, so that would be two spots required. Again, not that they can’t find those spots, but it does add a wrinkle.
beyond reason, today may be the day i am disappointed they dont make the playoffs. They have done enough to make me think they can do it. This next month is rough, even the tigers have a decent chance to take series. Not bitter disappointment though, and if they make it through this rough stretch Ill just be happy they gave themselves a chance. Not coming close to .500 would leave a worst taste in my mouth at that point. If they do get past wild card, I will reset my taste meter
But I think your words indicate an important distinction. They *can* do it, but at what point do you *expect* them to do it. You may be there today even with that thought process, and that's great, but I think there's a bit of a difference there.
ah gotcha, i was hungup on disappointment scale.
IDK I may not ever think they "should" make playoffs, but maybe September 9th after back to back with guardians and twins. The AL central is looking pretty good. Who would have expected them to still be holding their own with the AL east at end of May? I will be checking the standings diligently the next few weeks
It really is two different questions. The fact that the Royals are off to a great start in the year the Central is actually good is SUPER annoying haha.
I shouldn’t be negative on a day where they are coming off a sweep. But at what point do we start becoming concerned about Vinny’s .313 obp? The offense is the only concern I have. So I hope you spot on with the trade market talk. But they can’t really have Vinny/Witt/or Salvy go in any slumps.
The fact that they are 10 games above .500 on the backs of the pitching and Witt/Salvy is pretty amazing. Everyone else has been…meh….but mostly…..blahhhhh…to puke….
I will point out that you say "on the backs of the pitching" as if it's not literally all five starters and at least three of the bullpen arms and maybe more. So you're really talking about roughly half the team. It's easy to look at individual hitters and the pitching staff as a whole and make it feel like they've got 15 guys and three are performing well when really they have 26 and like 14 are performing well.
That’s true. When you put it that way it is over half the team. It’s just the seperate of offense and pitching is how I think of it. But when you are never out of a game…..you can always pull it out if you are in it long enough. The pitching has been incredible. This is what the Rays feel like all the time. Interesting…..
I may be wrong here, but I would guess that teams that overperform their preseason projections generally do it with above average pitching staffs. If it’s 3-1 in the fifth, you can come back. If it’s 8-1, you can’t. I suppose there are teams that get way more offense than expected and win that way, but I sort of doubt it happens often.
I think expected stats are a bit of a crutch at times, but they also indicate what batted ball metrics show a player "should" have done. Vinnie's xBA/xOBP/xSLG/xwOBA line is .275/.354/.483/.364 compared to what's actually happened - .236/.313/.420/.320.
So if he continues to make contact the way he has in addition to working walks and limiting strikeouts (which he's struck out a fair amount lately), the expectation would be for that line to come up. Until he's not putting up batted ball metrics and contact metrics that indicate he's fine, I won't be worried about him.
I am amazed at how many out calls at first base have been reversed. A good example is the one on Friday with Salvador Perez beating out throw from third with umpire standing three feet away with clear view. I always assumed that umps did pretty good job making close calls but now I'm starting to have my doubts.
You don’t want to get me going on umpiring…
My answer to your question is today. If this team doesn't make the playoffs, I'll be disappointed. Not like "Quatraro has to be fired because he didn't get this collection of talent to the playoffs" disappointed, but still pretty bummed about a missed opportunity.
They have arguably: (1) the best pitcher in the AL, (2) he best all-around player in the AL in BWJr, and (3) another guy who is/should be in the MVP conversation in Salvy. They have more than enough talent around those 3 guys to be a playoff team, especially in the expanded wildcard era. Also, we're not going to get many more seasons like this from Salvy, so failing to make the playoffs with him playing so well would be particularly sad.
Clearly, injuries happen and could totally derail this season, but that would be a reason for the heartbreak, not an exception to it. Quite a position to be in after a 106 loss season.
I don’t think I’m on the “more than enough” talent train quite yet. Until the starters have pitched more than 150 innings….they haven’t. Doesn’t mean they can’t, or they won’t, they just haven’t yet. I personally, don’t see enough talent on the offensive side. But it hasn’t mattered to this point. And what I’ve never really considered before mainly because hardly in this position….just get to the 150 inning mark with these guys and if they break down…we’ll you might have enough wins to bridge the gap at that point.
That makes total sense to me with your rationale. I posed the question a bit differently on Twitter that might be a better way to look at it. It’s not when do you believe they could make it, but when do you expect them to make it? Would your answer be the same?
Expect is a funny concept. I think they're better than 50% to make the playoffs - maybe close to 60% in my mind?
After writing that, I checked Fangraphs and see that they have the Royals at 46.6%, and the Twins at 58.1%, and I guess I think those 2 numbers should basically be reversed. I think it's likely a 2-team race between KC and CLE the rest of the way, and I'm expecting (there's that word) CLE to falter as the injuries catch up to them.
That said, I'm not sure where I would draw the line for "expect". 75%, maybe? Not there yet because there are too many variables this early in the year. Your mid-June suggestion seems about right to have a more solid feel on how things are likely to shake out.
And honestly it’s all personal opinion. You may believe we’ve seen enough and they should make it. I need a bit more, but I’m a lot closer than I expected to be at this time of the season.
I'm cautiously optimistic about their playoff chances, but I really want to see how they do against Cleveland (and also some more against Minnesota, even though they have played them). Need some wins against those teams to really convince me.
Yep, completely agree there. I feel like we keep saying “we’ll know more after these next __ games” but I also think the next 26 are huge for this team. Get to the 74-game mark at 40-34 or better and they’re in great shape, assuming health.
I’ve been bracing for June because that stretch from May 31-June 30 is going to be brutal. Would be ecstatic to stay at .500. If that happens then the Royals are making the playoffs barring catastrophic injuries.
I was listening to comments from Ned Yost, James Shields, and Alex Gordon about Salvy and how he has continued to play well and even gotten better with his defensive metrics. Since it was 2014 reunion weekend and HDH threw out the first pitch each night, their stats were being brought up. I saw one stat that said they are the only 3 bullpen arms to have over 65 appearances and sub 1.5 ERA. This made me think, does Salvador Perez deserve some of that credit for the success of HDH because of the way he called games and received those 3 players? I think that is a valid argument in favor of Salvy when the HOF come calling. Thoughts?
I’ve gotta say I think that’s a pretty big stretch and a little disrespectful to the great seasons those guys put up. In the sense that it’s a team effort and someone needs to catch the pitches, I guess, but I’d ask how he elevated those three while so many others have been terrible with Salvy behind the plate. His HOF case will come from his bat, the hopes that nobody cares about framing by the time he’s in the ballot and the improvement in that area and how long he can keep it up.