Weekend in Review: Bobby Remains Hot, Royals Lose a Series and the Week Ahead

The losses are somehow both easier and harder to swallow for the Royals.

The Royals are playing competitive baseball regularly. That’s sort of a weird thing to say about a team playing at a 65-win pace since the break, but it’s true. They came out of the break and went 3-10 with a -21 run differential. That’s quite bad. But then they started their seven-game winning streak. Since and including that, they’re just 11-11, but have a +10 run differential.

A bad bullpen helps a positive run differential turn to .500. But interestingly enough, only three of their 11 losses have been by more than two runs. And one fo them was a walk-off grand slam by Boston that never should have happened if not for a brutal call. They’ve had a chance to tie or take the lead in the eighth or later in all but two of those losses.

Some of that is their resiliency, which I’ve hounded on for awhile. They don’t quit. Yesterday’s loss, for example, is one that looked like one of the less competitive losses even though it was a competitive game. But they fought for two in the ninth to give themselves some semblance of a chance. But some of that seems to bode at least somewhat positively for the future. So in that way, even the losses aren’t quite so damning.

It’s also easy to look at a team that started the second half 3-10 and then went 7-0 and has gone 4-11 since. But I don’t think anyone watching the Royals would say they’re the same team that rolled over all first half. And that’s what sort of makes the losses hurt more. You feel like they’re actually capable now. I haven’t done any research on if teams that lose a lot of close games are any more or any less likely to turn things around the next season, but it’s on my list at some point. It’s just nice to watch a game that you believe at least could end in a positive result because every win before the break was a true surprise.

TWIB Notes

Yes, it’s This Weekend in Bobby time as we look at Bobby Witt Jr.’s continued assault on actual baseball history. While he’s not on fire quite like Julio Rodriguez, Witt had another monster weekend. He went 6 for 13 with a homer, four runs and two stolen bases. He also made a rare costly error that he couldn’t make up for, so it wasn’t a perfect weekend, but those will happen. But the Royals don’t win on Friday afternoon without Witt’s heroics.

Cole Ragans had pitched well (I’ll get to that), but because his defense let him down a bit (actually including Witt), he gave up three runs in the fourth inning to put the Royals down 3-2. Move to the top of the sixth and Matt Duffy, who replaced Maikel Garcia after Garcia left with an injury, reached on an error and that brought Witt up.

Yeah, that pitch is definitely one that should have been hit as far as it was and it was absolutely hit that far. That was his 24th home run of the season and 22nd he hit as a shortstop. That only means something in Kansas City, but it does mean something. In 1997, the Royals traded for Jeff King and Jay Bell from the Pirates. Bell played shortstop in Kansas City for one year and hit 21 homers. That was the most hit by a Royals shortstop until Witt came along. Maybe it really means nothing, but I actually think that’s pretty cool.

With three more hits on Saturday afternoon, including an RBI single and another hit on Sunday, Witt finds himself leaving the weekend with a season average of .281/.320/.500. I’ll get to where he sits in the big picture in a second, but this is a player who was hitting .221/.262/.402 after play on May 22. That’s not that long ago. It’s a random-ish date, but it’s still very impressive. Since that day, he’s hitting .320/.358/.564 in 328 plate appearances. Since the break, he’s hitting .343/.374/.650. Since the start of August, he’s hitting .382/.427/.697. He has a legitimate case for American League Player of the Month. He needs to finish strong, but what he’s done is amazing.

And now for the year, he finds himself seventh in all of baseball in fWAR. With what’s happening with Wander Franco, he is pretty clearly the most valuable shortstop in the American League. He has a very real chance to win a Gold Glove. If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve already seen this stat, but take a look at his counting stats: 24 doubles, seven triples, 24 home runs and 37 steals. He is one of only nine players IN THE HISTORY OF BASEBALL to do that. There are 36 games left! If he reaches his pace of 31 doubles, nine triples, 31 homers and 48 steals, he will be the ONLY PLAYER TO EVER DO THAT.

This extension article I’ve started to work on is tough.

Reviewing the Weekend

That’s what you all came here for, right? I know I’ve said this before, but I’m going to keep repeating it. The results are meaningless anymore, so I’m going to look at the interesting points from the weekend’s games that have some value moving forward. If Matt Beaty hit a big home run, that’s super cool and I’m going to be happy to see it, but it has no bearing on anything that actually matters. I might make a gif so you can see it, but whatever. Let’s get to it.

Cole Ragans Looked Really Good Again

The line wasn’t terribly special for Ragans with three runs allowed in six innings, but I alluded earlier that he was let down a bit by his defense in that fourth inning. He gave up some hard contact in that inning, but it could have been less than three runs. Still, overall, he was excellent. He threw a career-high 106 pitches and what was so intriguing were pitches 105 and 106. His penultimate pitch was a called strike at 97.7 MPH. Then he ended his outing with a 98.4 MPH fastball that he sent right by Patrick Wisdom.

Yep, his last two pitches were his seventh-hardest and second-hardest pitches thrown respectively in the entire game. For a time, he was throwing more changeups than fastballs again, which is what he did in his last start, but you could start to see the confidence in the fastball rising as the game was going on. His velocity was excellent, not just on those final pitches, but all game. He ended up getting three whiffs on it on 14 swings and it was hit hard the two times all game it was put in play, but it’s a difference-maker of a pitch. He caught the middle with it a little more than I’d like, but when it’s that good of a pitch, you can make that mistake.

His changeup was again outstanding. He got seven whiffs on that and even when the Cubs put it in play, it wasn’t quality contact. For all the talk about Brady Singer needing a third pitch, the reality is that when your two best are working, you don’t actually need that third pitch too often. But it sure is nice that he can go to a slider that’s gotten so good so fast. He threw 16 of them, got whiffs on four and generally weak contact. He threw 13 curves and seven landed for called strikes. That’s a huge pitch to have in his arsenal. And he uses his cutter well, though he did make one mistake with it.

In all, I thought it was a great bounceback for Ragans from a start where he struggled for the first time as a member of the Royals. Everything looked sharp and he was commanding pretty well. All of that came too with a leadoff walk to start his game, which is never ideal, but he was able to make it work for him. Four of his 10 walks with the Royals are in the first inning, so that’s something to work on, but he just continues to look a future part of the rotation.

Backup for Singer

Singer has been really good for awhile now, but he struggled with command in a big way against the Cubs on Saturday. He wasn’t walking a terrible number of hitters, but he just found himself living in the middle of the plate. We’ve talked about this. His stuff just isn’t good enough to make those mistakes consistently, especially if he isn’t locating in general. And if you look, there’s a cluster in a spot we haven’t seen much of lately.

On the bright side, this is okay. It happens. The best of the best have bad outings and I don’t think Singer is the best of the best. He’s still a competent rotation piece on any team. But, that said, there was a little concern for me. His velocity was down a fair amount. He averaged just 91 MPH on his sinker compared to 92.3 MPH for the season. His slider velocity was down too, but I don’t really know how much that matters because he’s been messing with slightly different sliders, so that might just be throwing it a bit differently.

He still has a 3.43 ERA since the break and a 3.83 ERA since his ERA climbed to its highest point in early May. And he threw 10 changeups out of 91 pitches. I know that’s everyone’s first point when Singer struggles. Did he throw the changeup?!?! The answer is yes. He threw a lot of them. And, if you’re looking for something encouraging out of this outing, it was pretty good. The location was great.

That’s exactly where he wants them. The next key is for him to feel comfortable enough to throw them in different spots where he isn’t used to throwing them if his sinker isn’t quite there. Or even not hold it back until later in the game. Take the first inning. Nico Hoerner had reached on Witt’s error and Singer started Cody Bellinger with two very hittable sliders. Bellinger took both, so it was 0-2. Then he tried to waste a slider. Okay, great. Love it. Then he threw a sinker that ran up. I don’t love it in the middle like it was, but I love the changing of eye levels. He let a sinker get away to make the count 2-2, but then went back to the slider. It was another extremely hittable one and Bellinger got it to the stands.

If in that spot, Singer threw the changeup and it looked like most of the changeups he threw, I’d wager the Royals are out of the inning with no runs scoring. But he’s not there yet with the pitch. I hope he gets there soon because I’m actually really liking what I’m seeing out of that pitch.

It looks like his next start will be in Seattle against the team he held hitless for 6.2 innings in Kansas City. The Mariners, as a team, have hit .139/.235/.278 against him in four games. They are 3 for 24 against him in two games in Seattle. Hopefully that can summon up some additional confidence for him to get back on track on Friday night in Seattle.

The Bullpen Was…Great?

The Royals bullpen has been such a problem for this team, particularly in that Seattle series, that if they have some good outings, it needs to be mentioned. Their services weren’t required at all yesterday with Jordan Lyles giving his third complete game (loss) of the year, but on Friday, they closed down a tight game. Look, it wasn’t easy, but they did it after Ragans gave six strong.

Dylan Coleman came in and got an out, walked a batter and threw a wild pitch because of course, but then got a strikeout and a lazy flyout. that will work. How he did it was interesting and has been a trend for him. He threw 19 pitches and just five fastballs. It does appear that his velocity is back, but he’s really alternating between the hard slider at 90ish MPH and the bigger sweeper at 81-82 MPH. Both have incredible spin and both have been working pretty well. He does need to get back to his fastball, but it’s working okay for him for now.

He has a 4.05 ERA with 16 strikeouts in 13.1 innings since he’s been back, but those numbers have come with 12 walks. He has pitched seven straight scoreless outings, but with six walks in 5.1 innings. Though I will say, with only one hit, it sort of feels like that can work. A walk can’t drive a runner in from second. Obviously better control is important, but he has just had so bad of a season that baby steps are okay here.

Then Taylor Clarke came back off the IL with no rehab and looked as good as he’s looked in months. Maybe he really was just hurting. That, of course, makes me wonder why he was pitching so much, but that’s another question for another day I guess. He also didn’t throw many fastballs, going with eight sliders and two sweepers out of 15 pitches. He did give up a single to Seiya Suzuki and the Royals wanted to turn Jeimer Candelario around to the right side, so they brought in Austin Cox, but he ended up getting the last out after walking Candelario, so all was good.

And Carlos Hernandez closed the door. He was a little shaky and needed some help. After striking out Christopher Morel to start the inning, Hoerner hit a ball down the right field line and Drew Waters made one of the best throws I think I’ve seen.

The throw was on the money, but what you couldn’t see above is how he just stopped himself before he threw. Check this out.

That is truly amazing. The body control and everything is something I just don’t know that I’ve seen much of in that situation. Very cool. Hernandez walked Ian Happ before getting Bellinger swinging to end the game and hopefully build a little confidence.

Then on Saturday with Singer going out in the fourth, the bullpen was needed in a big way. Tucker Davidson had to get out of a bases loaded jam and did. He combined with Taylor Hearn, John McMillon and Jackson Kowar to retire all 13 batters they faced. McMillon looks like the real deal with his 99+ MPH fastball and slider and Kowar looks somehow different this time around too. I think it’s fair to note that after he was sent back down a few weeks ago, Kowar had two rough AAA outings, but had a 2.37 ERA with 17 hits allowed in 19 innings in his last 12 games in Omaha. That includes 19 strikeouts and seven walks. Look, I’m not saying he’s an answer, but I’m at least interested in seeing him for a bit more.

I wrote on Friday about the pitching staff, but if you can squint and see Hernandez and Cox and then McMillon and one more from this group that’s there now, things don’t look quite so bad. I still want to see Will Klein in spite of his struggles. And Steven Cruz too. There are some options. The Royals need to start cycling through them as the season winds down.

The Week Ahead

The Royals head to Oakland to start the week, which is a series that will be followed closely by nobody outside of Royals fans and the handful of A’s fans who haven’t checked out after their team has been so horrible and destined for Las Vegas. It’s not a terribly interesting week, but I am really interested in Zack Gelof, who they called up and has been fantastic, hitting .308/.376/.617 for them with eight homers in 31 games. He strikes out a fair amount, but the guy can hit. Otherwise, they’re not a terribly impressive bunch. Brent Rooker has been better lately, but he’s still hitting .218/.291/.393. They just don’t have much, which is no surprise.

The Royals look like they’re on track to face Paul Blackburn, Kyle Muller and Luis Medina and will match up with Alec Marsh and Angel Zerpa pitching bulk innings and Ragans on Wednesday afternoon in the series finale. Blackburn has been the A’s best pitcher, Muller has been truly terrible this season and Medina is young and sort of interesting, but he’s also been bad. Otherwise, it’s kind of interesting because these two teams squared off way back in May and I’m not sure there’s a single reliever who was on the roster then who remains on the roster now.

After leaving Oakland, the Royals head north to Seattle to face the Mariners again. Maybe Rodriguez will have cooled off by then. They’ll see Bryce Miller for the first time along with a repeat of Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo from the series in Kansas City. I follow a few people who cover the Mariners and all they had to say about the Royals was how tough a series that was in Kansas City, so I’m hopeful the Royals can give the Mariners another scare on their home field.