21 Comments

Thx for the wrap, nicely done as always. Totally subjective observation, but Singer did seem to be psyched out a little by the BWJ error. Felt like you could almost see him trying to talk himself off the ledge ... nothing obvious, just a vibe. Or maybe I was projecting, given my general feelings about Singer's outings. And obviously things did not go well after that.

Expand full comment

I can't say I noticed that, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen. And it would jive with the past. Sometimes those things have gotten to him, and when they do, there's trouble.

Expand full comment

Definitely could be my imagination...His starts feel fragile to me, but I may just still be shell shocked from that Braves outing a few months ago before he started to turn the corner.

Expand full comment

I had the feeling during most of 2021 that he struggled quite a bit with any sign of adversity, so I definitely have that on my mind when he pitches.

Expand full comment

After almost 4 years, barring an extensive change to his arsenal, it just feels like Singer is who he is at this point: a league-average pitcher who's always going to underperform his FIP/xFIP a little and give you innings at the back of the rotation, maybe middle of the rotation if he gets some good batted ball luck one year. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing, you need someone to pitch league-average-ish innings, I just have sort of given up on him ever being the type of ace we thought he might be.

Expand full comment

Yep, that's exactly where I've landed with him and that's why I have zero issue with any path they take with him. Year to year is fine. Trading him is fine. Extending him for a year or two for cost certainty is totally fine. There really isn't a wrong answer, which is kind of nice.

Expand full comment

Yeah, I think you're right. IIRC, his projections coming out of the draft were mostly mid-rotation starter, so this is a decent outcome. And if he's a #3-5 starter, I personally would rather have a guy who gives you 1/3rd of his starts at a #1-2 level and 1/3rd at a AAA level than a guy who's slightly below average every time out. But that's a matter of preference.

Expand full comment

I think that's sort of where Singer is. I'll take it.

Expand full comment

Excellent analysis as usual. I saw the Waters throw live and it has to be in the top ten I’ve seen in my life. The best part is how effortless/nonchalant/cool Waters made it seem. I mentioned in an earlier reply I’m ok with him

And Isbel and down the order OF doing their thing because their D is just that good.

As an aside, did you see the article out there mentioning that the Reds and Royals talked about Brady Singer and that Jonathan India was thought to be part of the package .... which I threw out here as a possibility.

Expand full comment

It was seriously incredible.

I did see the article about Singer, but I didn't take it that India was definitely in the deal, just that the Reds were willing to deal India, maybe in a separate deal. I would say that India is fairly overrated though. He's been below average offensively and pretty bad defensively.

Expand full comment

One of the biggest differences I have noticed with Bobby this year is that he's doing damage on mistake pitches. I feel like last year and early this season, he would foul off or even take a lot of hanging curves and grooved fastballs. But lately he's been doing what he should with them. In addition to doing things like homering on 102 up and in.

Expand full comment

I'd love to dig in on that, but I do feel like you're right there.

Expand full comment

It's hard for me not to be overly optimistic about BWJ with how fun he's been over the past couple of months, but it seems to me that even as good as he's been, he's so freaking talented (athleticism, work ethic, etc.) that he could still have potential to be even better, which kinda blows my mind. And as much of a slog as this year has been, it does feel like we're starting to see several pieces on the position player side that can give us hope. I'm trending toward thinking that Garcia, Witt Jr., Massey, Salvy (if he isn't dealt), Fermin, hopefully a health Vinny, and some combo of Waters, MJ, Velasquez and Isbell may actually be a solid core. And if that is the case and they chose to spend FA $$ on pitching and added a couple veterans (a notch above Jordan Lyles) to pair with Ragans and Singer, well, maybe there is quite a bit of W/L improvement next year. I know you've referenced looking into their luck in close games this year, but it does seem there record is about as bad as it possibly could have been this year.

Expand full comment

Where I think we could see a jump from him is if pitchers start to pitch around him and he can up the walk rate. That's the final step for him. The amount contact is good. The quality of contact is good. He's done a better job of not swinging at pitches out of the zone, but he still has some work to do. I do think there's a nice core of players offensively. They need pitching for sure, but I think it's reasonable to expect them to be better just because it's so hard to be worse. Buddy Bell would hate that I said that.

Expand full comment

I won't tell Buddy. And that's a good point on potential improvement for BWJ. I believe he was up in the 6th inning yesterday with runners on 2nd and 3rd, and it was clear Hendricks was not going to give him a pitch to hit. Bobby ended up hitting the ball hard and lining out to right, but it was on a pitch that was clearly (at least to me) meant to be ball four.

Expand full comment

I happen to have Bomby & Corbin Carroll on my fantasy team, & this morning I was looking at both guy's 2023 stats so far.

HR's : Bomby has 24, CC has 21.

Stolen Bases : they both have 37.

AVG/OBP/OPS :

BWJ : 281/320/820

CC : 273/354/856

For all the attention Carroll's gotten, I was a little surprised they were that close.

Expand full comment

Yeah, Witt's come on STRONG to get there.

Expand full comment

And Carroll's dipped a bit. They kinda met in the middle. If they could get BWJ to sign the Carroll deal, I'd be ALL over it. Unlikely, though.

Expand full comment

Yeah that’s not happening at this point. But there is a deal out there that could work. Just have to find that middle ground.

Expand full comment

I have a feeling McMillon will become our closer/high leverage specialist at some point next year. Hernandez just doesn't seem to have the consistency to be a guy you can confidently turn to when you need to shut the door.

Expand full comment

I don't know if Hernandez will ever develop that consistency, but I do agree that McMillon has the look of an answer.

Expand full comment