Weekend in Review: Stressful Bullpen, Competitive Losing and the Week Ahead

The Royals seem to have found a bit of an identity and even after seeing their winning streak halted, there's some positivity to be found.

If I told you a month ago that the Royals would take a game in a series in Philadelphia, you’d take it. But you’d also call me a liar and probably some other names if I told you they’d win the one game started by Jordan Lyles in a bandbox ballpark. To add to this, you’d also tell me I’m an idiot if I told you that losing the series was a little disappointing. And yet, all three of those things happened, though I don’t know how disappointed I was in the result of the series. Coming off a six-game winning streak that got stretched to seven in the series opener, though, it would have been nice if they could have gotten one of the final two.

But this is still a bad team, no matter what the week before Saturday’s loss tells us. They still have very real issues and some inexperience that I’ll get to in a minute. Even factoring in a couple of losses, it’s been nice to watch baseball games where you feel like the Royals might win. Maybe they’re just reverting to form and we won’t be talking about a win for awhile, but even that relatively short break from the reality of the 2023 season was nice as a Royals fan. Combine that with a trade deadline that I think was generally pretty good and one that might set up for an interesting winter and this was easily the most fun week we’ve had since that 14-2 start in spring training.

Relief Needs R-O-L-A-I-D-S

The Royals starting rotation has done some interesting things since the break. They’ve almost entirely stopped walking batters with a 4.8 percent walk rate. They even have the 12th-best ERA in the second half. But the bullpen, my friends, that’s an adventure. It’s been an adventure all season, but with the trade of Aroldis Chapman at the end of June and the trade of Scott Barlow last week to go along with an injury to Taylor Clarke and, to a lesser extent, injuries to Josh Staumont and Josh Taylor, the bullpen is left with a whole lot of inexperience.

Other than Nick Wittgren, who has required 6.2 consecutive scoreless innings to drop his ERA to 5.54, the Royals bullpen is filled with a bunch of guys who haven’t really done it before. Carlos Hernandez has the second-most innings in his career of any Royals reliever and this is his first year pitching exclusively out of the bullpen. Jonathan Heasley has the second-most innings and Tucker Davidson the third-most. You may not have even realized Davidson was a Royals pitcher if you sort of checked out over the last week or so.

This isn’t inherently a bad thing. The results might end up bad. Saturday night’s game turned because Angel Zerpa gave up a three-run blast to Trea Turner to turn a 6-5 lead into an 8-6 deficit. Sunday’s game went from close to probably out of reach when Heasley struggled once again out of the bullpen. But again, I think that’s fine. When Heasley came out of the bullpen on July 4 (I think it was) throwing 97-98 MPH, that had me intrigued. He stopped doing that, though. I’m fine with giving him some opportunities down the stretch to see if he can figure out how to be a capable reliever. I’m not going to hold my breath that he can, but what else is a 110-loss season for?

It just makes for some stressful situations if you’re at all invested in the win-loss record. I think about Friday’s game. They had tons of options in terms of the number of pitchers available to pitch the ninth inning. Matt Quatraro had used Hernandez in a leverage spot in the seventh, which I’m more than okay with, but what was left was a combined eight career saves and Wittgren had six of them. Even in writing that, though, I realize that Hernandez only has the one career save, so even though we see him as the best reliever out there, he doesn’t have much experience at all.

I wrote about veteran leadership a couple of weeks back about Quatraro, and I do think there’s something to having someone back there who can be a guiding light. Maybe Wittgren is the guy. They also picked up Joe Barlow off the scrap heap and optioned him to AAA, which is an interesting move. He had a really nice year in 2021 with a 1.55 ERA and 3.45 FIP in 29 innings with just 12 hits allowed.

He wasn’t as good last year and then was pretty bad this season for Texas. But he’s a guy teams like the Royals should absolutely be picking up regularly. He’s a Barlow who relies on a breaking ball more than his fastball, so that’s at least familiar, but it’s been a pretty good slider in the past. He also threw a curve a lot more in his successful 2021 season, so I wonder if the Royals try to get him back to what he was that season and get him back to the big leagues. Worst case scenario, they’ve spent a little time with a guy who has had big league success and they move on. Best case, maybe they can get him back and deal him for another Henry Williams type. It’s a good gamble.

I’ll continue to bang the drum that the Royals should be getting a look at Will Klein and John McMillon and Christian Chamberlain if he ever gets on track in AAA. It sort of sounds like they might be bringing Anthony Veneziano up as a reliever whenever that time comes and maybe Jonathan Bowlan too, so we might see some musical chairs on these relievers as the season winds down. And that might mean some blown games, but it’s the wise move in a season like this.

Some Weekend Takeaways

Aggressiveness Rules the Day

This actually goes back a ways, kind of to the series in Tampa toward the end of June. But at some point, the Royals must have realized they have an athletic team and they need to take advantage of that. It’s not just stolen bases, but they attempted 68 steals in their first 74 games. They were successful on 53 of them, which is a 77.9 percent success rate. That’s solid. In the 39 games since then, they’ve attempted 64 stolen bases and been successful on 52 of them for a success rate of 81.3 percent.

That’s not exactly half, but it’s awfully close. It’s no surprise that they’ve averaged 4.2 runs per game in the last 39 compared to 3.7 per game in the first 74. It did take a seven-game winning streak to get there, but they’re 16-23 in that stretch, which is a 66-win pace. That’s nothing to celebrate, but compared to the 44-win pace, it feels like a parade should be planned. There are obviously more factors involved. I mentioned the starting pitching since the break, but the offense finding some identity has been really nice and gives me maybe some additional hope moving forward.

This weekend, in particular, the Royals went a little nuts against JT Realmuto. Coming into the weekend, he’d caught 32.7 percent of attempted base stealers. The Royals were six for six against him. They did have a caught stealing, but it was Bobby Witt Jr. getting picked off and thrown out at third, so that wasn’t a catcher caught stealing. It’s not just base stealing, though. They worked their magical safety squeeze with speed on third and Dairon Blanco at the plate. That play basically can’t be defended.

They push the envelope. They take an extra base. And they just run really fast. It doesn’t always work out, though they’re way less reckless on the bases than most think. They’ve made 32 outs on the bases this year, which is league average and 13th in the league. They have made 10 outs at third this season, which is seventh-most, but I also sort of get it. Getting to third for a team that doesn’t hit a lot is pretty important. It allows for a lot of ways to score. If a team isn’t likely to get a hit, pushing for third is big. Only seven teams have been thrown out at home less, so they don’t give away runs there like they have in the past.

They’re above league average in taking the extra base. It would be great if they could hit a few more home runs. They have the guys to do it, and certainly will next year when they add Vinnie Pasquantino back to the mix. But when you have guys like Witt, Maikel Garcia, Blanco, Samad Taylor, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters and even Michael Massey and MJ Melendez, you have to use the speed. Quatraro spoke in his opening press conference about winning in the margins. This is an area where the Royals are often better than their opponents. Win there.

The Bats Keep Hitting

Maybe we saw the hot streak come to an end yesterday when the Royals were shut down after the second inning, but I was encouraged quite a bit by the approach at the plate for the Royals. On Friday night, Aaron Nola came out of the gates looking good. He made Witt look silly in the first inning and thwarted a second-inning rally by striking out three in a row after the Royals had runners on second and third and nobody out. The first time through the order ended with Isbel striking out to give Nola five.

But as the lineup turned over, Garcia took a different two-strike approach and singled to right. That brought up Witt. Nola worked him up in the first at bat when he struck out. He started him with a cutter up in this at bat, but Witt was ready.

Michael Massey was fooled badly by a changeup from Nola in his second at bat. He got another one in his third (it was hung, but still) and crushed it.

They scored three more after that to take a lead they wouldn’t relinquish, partially thanks to the squeeze to give them some insurance, and that won them the game to be able to alter their approach to get something going.

On Saturday, they’d never seen Cristopher Sanchez before and his changeup was dirty. He struck out six of the first 11 hitters he faced. But after the third, something changed and the Royals completely got him out of his game.

They ended up scoring six runs against him, which is twice as many as his previous most allowed in a game. Some of it was thanks to Freddy Fermin with his first two-homer game as a big leaguer.

But some of it was going from not being able to put the bat on the ball to simply putting the bat on the ball. And man, that squeeze works so well.

And even on Sunday, the Royals got to Taijuan Walker in the first inning by just making solid contact against him. You sort of feel like they could have had more than three in the first and maybe the game is different, but the Phillies played some great defense. Melendez was robbed of a hit in the first, but in the second, he couldn’t be robbed.

Now, it would have been nice if Walker didn’t figure things out or if Zack Greinke didn’t leave unfortunately middling stuff in the zone so much, but I’m continuing to see signs from the offense that there’s hope yet.

The Royals Flashed Leather Too

I feel like a bit of a broken record talking about the Royals defense, but are they actually…good defensively? There’s still work to do, of course, especially when they put either Melendez or Edward Olivares in left field, but the Royals can really catch the ball. And they can really throw it too. I wish I could remember where they were in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) a few weeks ago, but I know they were -20 something. They’re now at -7. That’s a huge jump. After the weekend, they’re up to second in baseball in Outs Above Average at 23.

They pass the eye test and the sniff test too. They have two very good defensive center fielders. Garcia, Witt and Massey are fantastic at their respective positions. Fermin behind the plate is a legitimate defensive weapon. They have Blanco on the bench to play great defense either as a defensive replacement or a starter.

And the outfield can throw! Waters made an out at third ahead of a home run yesterday that he was going to his right and still threw a strike on the fly to third base. I know I mentioned this the other day, but a good throwing outfield is such a cool thing to have. Until teams stop running, you get free outs. But once they do, guys stop trying to advance. And sometimes even the best arms make errant throws, so to be able to hold guys from scoring from first on a double or second on a single can be huge.

And the best play they’ve made all year is one that it feels like Massey and Witt have been trying to perfect, but it worked when Witt got a day off and Garcia was there.

Unreal. That was awesome.

Run the bases well, hit enough, play great defense and limit walks from your starting pitching and you’ve got a nice basis for success. There’s a lot more work to be done, for sure, but seeing actual progress and success has been a breath of fresh air.

What’s Next?

The Royals stay on the East Coast and travel to Boston to see the Red Sox for the first time this season. They came out of the break strong, going 8-4 in their first 12. But they lost two straight by walkoff in San Francisco and are now 4-7 in their last 11 after getting swept by Toronto this weekend. There are two directions for this team to go. They’re just five out of a Wild Card spot, so the season is by no means done. Plus, the team is what the team is after the deadline. So they could rally and go on a run. They’re certainly talented enough, at least offensively. Or they can curl up. It’s hard to say what’ll happen.

Historically, the Royals have brought out the fight in teams this year. The Yankees felt like they were in that spot when the Royals went there and then they got three relatively easy wins. It’s hard to say where this goes, but the pitching matchups for the four games are set, as of now, to be:

• Cole Ragans vs. Brayan Bello

• Brady Singer vs. Kutter Crawford

• Jordan Lyles vs. James Paxton

• Alec Marsh vs. Nick Pivetta

I’m so excited to see what Ragans can do. Lefties in Fenway can be scary with that monster breathing down your neck, but most of the power for Boston is from the left side at least. His slider is going to be a very important pitch for him as he tries to navigate Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Alex Verdugo. Singer is more about what he can do. It’s a lot of good lefties, so how does he do in that spot? I don’t really care what Lyles does and I’m not expecting good things out of Marsh in a park like Boston. It’s a good test, but he just gives up too many home runs for me to feel confident about him in a park with distances like Fenway has.

After Boston, the Royals come home for a rare two-game weekend series. They’ll play Friday and Saturday and are off Sunday. Basically, the Cardinals wanted one of the games in St. Louis moved to Memorial Day (the near perfect game) when the first schedule came out (that nobody saw). So the Royals said they’d move it if the Cardinals would agree to playing this series on Friday and Saturday instead of Saturday and Sunday. Either way, it would have been weird. But on the bright side, it looks like we should get Zack Greinke vs. Adam Wainwright, so maybe you can feel a little younger for a day.