Well, so much for my sweep thinking….frustrating with Ragans, Lugo, and Singer lined up too. Offense just didn’t do what they should in Colorado except for yesterday.
Caught most of the game Friday. I’m going to bring up Pennington….mainly because I was pretty interested to watch him after kind of the report you got from your people about it not working up here with the stuff and spin rates. IDK….he looked pretty normal stuff wise to me. It’s a slider that’s going to be pretty tough on lefties. I’m not saying he’s going to be Hader or anything…but I saw no reason he couldn’t be successful. So my frustration with them continues with Pennington. I guess they are too worried about too many lefties with Bubic now. But I’m to the point of just get the best guys up regardless of which side they throw from. Maybe they think they can flip Long for a little something. I guess it’s a fine problem to have. But man, the bullpen (Schrieber) hurt on Friday. Fine the other two days.
On Pennington, I'm just relaying what people have mentioned to me, and it was concern over the fact that the big strikeout numbers were more a result of lesser hitters because the shape of his pitches isn't remarkable. In his eight total pitches of which he threw no more than three of any pitch (so you really can't even scout anything from your couch), the slider spin rate was 2,362 rpms. The average for lefty sliders is 2,385. He was 92-93 on the hard stuff. The average for lefties is 93. I don't really think anyone doesn't think he *can* do it in the big leagues. I think most of the conversation was more around it not being what people might expect it to be based on his AAA numbers.
All that said, I'm disappointed he got sent down, but I think there is something to not wanting five lefties in your bullpen even if both Schreiber and Nick Anderson have options that could be utilized. I know the idea of get the best guys you can in there makes a lot of sense, but there are bigger picture issues to look at, and some of it is you don't want opponents to start to see too much of the same look. We talked about that a few weeks ago. As rough as it's been for the bullpen, at least they don't have a bunch of guys showing the same thing as the guy before them. I don't know. I'd have probably dealt with the five lefties, but I at least understand the thought process.
Yeah, I mean. I get it. Do I think he can help sure…in maybe the same way Long has. Did I see a real weapon…no probably not. But I think it is just frustrating cause I can feel this thing starting to slip away. It’s still kind of what I thought would happen…but it’s still frustrating non the less. They are improved from last year greatly. I’ll take it I guess.
The good news is they still have everything in front of them with their remaining games. They're 1.5 behind the Red Sox and still play them six times. They're only three behind the Twins. Hell, the Guardians August schedule is brutal. Their lead may be big enough to not matter, but they could have a tough month and really fall back to the pack. Nobody thought it would happen to the Yankees and here we are with them.
It seems like both Schreiber and Stratton have consistently struggled, and if you add in Will Smith it all adds up to a major "S" pitcher problem. It seems like we've seen enough not to trust any of them in close games. That's part of why Pennington being sent down is frustrating. I really have no idea who our 7th and 8th inning guys are but we just can't keep throwing these same guys out there and hope for different results.
I'd argue that Stratton has very inconsistently struggled. He's given up runs in roughly the same percentage of outings that some of the better relievers have. It's just that when he struggles, it's really bad. And Smith has a sub-1.00 WHIP in his last 23 appearances. Schreiber has been an issue for a bit. They need two or three pitchers to push these guys into middle reliever roles and they'll look a lot better.
Agree, if you look at the larger body of work it doesn't seem as bad with Stratton, but the last 3 outings they've been pretty bad. I just feel like we can't really trust any of these guys in late inning/close game situations right now.
That's fair. He's been 100% bad for the last week or so. That's what happens with middle relievers, though. A big issue is that he's having to be a leverage reliever.
Another big week coming up, especially the games against the Red Sox. Beyond the four/five all stars, what I see is: (1) the Royals are not a good team on the road, and they have more road games than home games remaining, (2) they are not currently in the playoffs, (3) they’ve had pretty good luck with injuries so far, (4) and, of course, their offense and bullpen are lacking and inconsistent. I’m not advocating a big sell off, but I think they need to approach the trade deadline strategically to look beyond this season.
I wouldn’t trade anyone with value for anyone who isn’t under team control beyond 2024, that’s for sure. You want to go get Tommy Pham and you’re trading Erick Pena for it. Cool. I don’t care about that. But don’t move Mason Barnett for Carlos Estevez. I still believe they should be focused on adding, but it is definitely not a go for it deadline at this point.
I wouldn’t trade for anyone who isn’t within team control through at least 2025. They should be targeting players who can help them for multiple years. And they have multiple players who they could trade who may be at peak trade value right now.
That's what I'm saying. They need to at least be in KC in 2025.
I'd argue that they have multiple players to move right now, though. You want to trade Singer or Wacha? Sure. You can't trade Lugo. I mentioned this in a comment the other day. It would destroy any credibility with free agents moving forward. You can't give a guy a multi-year deal and then trade him in the middle of the first year when you're contending. Whether it should be the case or not, I've had two agents tell me they'd change the way they deal with the Royals on free agents if they traded Lugo this year.
The start of this season was the first time in a long time the Royals built a cushion to keep them in play by the ASG. It was fun, but it also felt very much like the team was playing above their ability (as a whole), and then everyone came back to earth. What we got to see is what this team can be, if we add the right pieces now and during the offseason. I’m not riding any playoff hopes this season and if they make a couple of strategic moves at the ASG great, if the right deal isn’t there don’t do it.
David, excellent analysis as always. MLB has to do better on the replays. The fan literally took the ball out of Blanco’s glove which was in the field of play!!! I was glad to see Bubic look good in his one inning because we were both at the game on April 15, 2023 where it was obvious something was wrong with him. He helps solidify the bullpen and if necessary can be a 6th starter. I still do not like Melendez lunging at the ball as he starts his swing but the last 20 games he has been hitting. He is also no longer a defensive liability in the outfield. I agree with your analysis about two more relievers (Bubic and Pennington?) and two more bats IF they do not give up their top prospects. They are still in the playoff hunt and remember the Diamondbacks of last year! I wish I had laid down some bets early in the season that they would be NL champions!!! A crucial week starting tomorrow!
Yep, big big week for them. I think they need to go outside the organization for a reliever or two because I just don't think you can 100% count on Bubic or Pennington, even though both looked good in a limited sample.
Now that Bubic is back (and his performance is nothing short of remarkable only 15 months removed from FULL TJ surgery), let's speculate on next year's rotation.
We've got Ragans/Lugo/Singer as a locks (and under contract).
If Kyle Wright can return like Bubic (seemingly) has after a 12+ month layoff after surgery, then you have a decent looking 5-man starting rotation...and we haven't even talked about Wacha (depends on options) and Marsh! Now you can start thinking about possible trade scenarios among some of our minor league starting depth (and Lynch may be the worst of them)...unless they become studs (Kurdma?).
I think I'd say Ragans and Lugo are locks for next year and Singer is if he's not traded. They might be moving him. I don't think they have to, but don't be surprised if they do. Your options for the remaining spots are the guys you mentioned and then Marsh as of right now. Chandler Champlain hasn't been great in AAA, but he could be a candidate as well. One thing I'm going to write about at some point is that Wacha is going to become a free agent. He's pitched well enough to do better than the one year and $16 million left on his contract. I think the Royals should give him the QO and he might actually accept that number, which should be around $20 million.
Replay review has gotten so bad that I was genuinely shocked when the challenge on the safe call at first was successful yesterday. I’ve started just assuming the Royals will lose replay challenges even if the video evidence clearly supports them.
No kidding: it looked like Q was going to pull his hair out! One missed replay I could understand...2 I'm thinking "what's going on"...but 3 IN THE LAST WEEK means there has to be some sort of conspiracy!
Sports betting makes me doubt everything. Hard not to be a conspiracy theorist when you read about players getting death threats when they have a bad day at the plate, on the mound, or in the field.
The prevalance of sports betting makes every bad call stink. Say you're betting a Cole Ragans over/under on strikeouts of 7.5 and he has a bad call on a 3-2 pitch and strikes out seven. How do you handle that? It all sucks.
With Salvy no longer carrying the offense (.200/.267/.327 in his last 30 games) and Garcia in a deep slump (.152/.219/.457 in his last 30 games), what is your thinking on ways to correct the hitting problems. The outfield production has been nothing less than horrible. BWJ can't carry the entire load.
Other than Mitchell and Wallace (our only two minor leaguers with 50+ grades on MLB Pipeline), do we have anyone of value to trade? I can't imagine anyone wants Pratto (.254 with 28% strikeouts in AAA) or Waters (.259, also with a 28% strikeout rate).
WAR
Isbel .9
Renfroe .5 but .308/.388/.582 over his last 30 games
Frazier .2 ($4.5 million contract - UGH)
Hampson .1 ($2 million contract)
Blanco -.1
Waters -.1
Alexander -.2
Melendez -.3 (1241 career ABs with -.2 overall WAR)
Velazquez -.6
While you are at it, how do you fix the bullpen with essentially a 0 WAR through the first half. Stratton ($8 million - UGH) and Smith ($5 million - UGH) seem to have been horrible signings. Lugo was a great signing and maybe Wacha will be okay, but the other free agent signings were complete whiffs.
WAR measures a player's value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position (e.g., a Minor League replacement or a readily available fill-in free agent).
The outfield has kind of been fine for a bit now. MJ is hitting over the last three weeks, Renfroe is hitting since early May and Isbel had a great June, but also doesn't need to be great offensively because he hits ninth and plays great defense. They should probably be targeting someone who can play an infield spot, maybe third base. I wrote about them looking at third basemen back in February. Nothing Garcia has done this year should make them think they were wrong to do that. The problem is who is out there? There isn't much.
What I will say is that I think Will Smith gets unfairly criticized. He was AWFUL to start, but relievers simply can't recover numbers-wise from stretches like that. He's had a sub-1.00 WHIP for more than two months now. He's not a closer, but he's fine in middle relief. Stratton has generally been fine, but is unpredictable of *when* he won't be. Schreiber has been horrible.
The reality, though, as I've written so many times, is that the pieces this team needs just don't cost that much in deadline deals. I wrote about it in the Weekend in Review two weeks ago (I think? Maybe three?). They've got the pieces to go get the supplementary pieces in any deal and you wouldn't even think twice about them pulling the trigger on them.
Probably agree on Smith, but $5 million? I shudder every time Stratton comes into the game, but that goes for the entire bullpen.
Piccolo signed seven free agents with one big hit (Lugo), a maybe or two (Wacha, Renfroe) and it looks like at least four misses. That doesn't give me a lot of confidence in the front office.
15-24 since May 26, by my calculation. That ties back to the Perez and Garcia slumps. It seems to me someone has to pick up the slack if they are to contend, not just be replacement level players or "kind of fine".
Will supplement players do the job? I really don't think so. And who do they have to trade that is of any value other than Mitchell and Wallace?
Last, I must be missing something here: I haven’t seen the Melendez to which you refer. I have seen the one who is below replacement level over 1200 ABs.
Classy move putting BWJ in the Home Run Derby in Texas! Nice to see him representing. Did you comment on this same thing earlier or maybe I heard it somewhere else?
You said we need better #5 and # 8 hitters. What about the lead-off spot? The lack of consistency there is killing the offense. With Witt hitting second, we've got to find a better lead-off guy. I'm not convinced Garcia is the guy. I was hoping he was. But he's clearly not.
Maybe what's really hurting the offense is that we have at least six players hitting .250 or below. I know you like Melendez, but (unless you're Kyle Schwarber) can you really have an everyday player hitting .190? At this point in his career, he is what he is.
What do you think the ceiling is on Pasquantino? I'm not as high on him as others are, but do you see him as a potential .300/30/100 guy?
Salvy's great start is ancient history now. It was nice while it lasted. I was really hoping he had changed his approach to stop swinging at bad pitches. He would be so much more productive if he did. You'd think he'd realize that based on the success he had early on. And the power's not there like it once was.
Look, I know a lot of these shortcomings are because we don't have anyone better to replace underperforming players with. I get it. How long will it take for the new coaching/instruction regime to see results in the farm system?
I don’t know that I said 5 and 8 hitters. They need two or three more bats. And yeah, leadoff hitter is one of them.
I also believed they should have demoted Melendez but they didn’t and now he’s hitting. And I think Pasquantino can still be a top-30 hitter in the game. That doesn’t necessarily mean .300/30/100. He can be a .350 OBP/.500 SLG guy though.
And the reality is the system takes time to change. That will change in a year or two if what they’re doing actually works.
I think fans, myself included, forget how much the system needs to change. Throughout the entire org. And one of the things they learned in our “evaluation year”, was that they needed more coaches.
As well, half of our position players have barely one season in the big leagues. Throw in a struggling pen and not every player is getting all of the attention it would be nice they did.
Great article as usual. I am interested to hear your thoughts (maybe an article is coming out about this?) on whether it's better for the Royals to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline? I would love for the Royals to make the playoffs, but I don't think they have the players needed to make the necessary trades. I think long-term we would benefit much more if we traded Lugo and Wacha for high end prospects that could booster r upper minor leagues. My second question, r u hearing any whispers on who the Royals might be drafting in the upcoming draft?
Thanks, Ryan. I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago. They're within a game and a half of a playoff spot right now and have at least six games left with many of the teams directly in front of them. I don't think you can purely sell. I think you can be creative, but you also have to add to this roster for a number of reasons, but I think it's a disservice to the players and the fans to wave a white flag after the seasons they've had. Does that seem silly to go against long-term success? Maybe, but I also don't think selling gets nearly as much as you'd think.
For one, I've mentioned this too, but they can't trade Lugo. They just can't. I spoke with two agents. Both of them said that if the Royals trade Lugo in the middle of a contending season after giving him a multi-year deal that any multi-year deal in the future would require an extra year and an extra $2-$4 million per year. It's just not good business to promise something and then when that something is being delivered to pull the plug on it. As for the rest, I'm not sure they're getting all that much for anyone other than maybe Singer.
Wacha has a player option for $16 million. A team might want him, but that's a massive risk to take on. It lowers his value considerably. I'm not saying you don't explore the options, but I think you end up better off just keeping him based on what I've heard from a few people. Singer has two years of control and while his value isn't going to match his current performance, there are enough teams that would be interested in him that they can get a nice return there, but I think they wait until the offseason to make that move anyway.
Instead, my guess is they look for incremental upgrades that don't cost much (because those don't cost much) and maybe make a longer-term move that hurts a bit but at least gets someone back for the future. I think whatever team acquires Jazz Chisholm is going to badly overpay for a solid but not great player, but a deal like that is something I could see them making if they can figure out the proper return and beat other teams' offers. Then they'd have someone for the future as well. But no, I don't think they can or should sell.
I hate it when people get overly analytical of managers and their lineups, but I attended all 3 games this weekend in Colorado and I was genuinely frustrated by the lineups Q put out there. Hampson got too much run and we only got 1 game of Massey. I know Q puts a huge value on rotating guys in and out and then puts a big focus on righty and lefty splits, but bottom line: with the team struggling (and rest days coming up!) it would have been nice to simply put the best bats in the lineup to try and give your team a chance to win a series or even sweep it. I hope we get the chance to see if Q continues lineup construction like this in a playoff series or if he simply puts his best 9 guys out there.
The thing we don't know about Massey is just how available he is every day. They are doing what they can to ease him back into the lineup regularly and they've been pretty open that he's still sort of rehabbing at the big league level. With that in mind, lefties on the mound might have been the excuse to keep him out of there. I agree, though, that they need to put their best in there more often. I just think the Massey situation in particular might not be as cut and dry as just playing platoons, even if that's what they said publicly.
I'm a day late, but had to get this off my chest: I can't figure out what the replay team was thinking on the home run call.
I can understand (but disagree with) the call a week earlier. The ball hit the arm connecting the net to the pole, but that's only "clear" because of the way the ball ricocheted off the horizontal arm, which was different from how it would have acted if it hit the vertical pole. The pole itself blocked the view of the ball and so I could understand the replay officials struggling to find "clear and convincing evidence" to overturn the bad call on the field.
There's no dancing around the Blanco call. There's a camera shot that shows the fan's hands undeniably in the field of play, on the wrong side of the outer edge of the fence. The camera is even slightly angled backward, so the extent that the fan's hands are in the field of play is somewhat concealed - but they're clearly past the fence. I just can't understand the logic and I think it's REALLY problematic that the league hasn't addressed it beyond the email they sent out a few minutes later.
When I look at the Royals' lineup I don't think it's even 2 bats off.
You've got Witt, Salvy, and Vinnie to bat in the middle. Renfroe, Massey, and Garcia to bat in the mid-bottom. Isbel to bat ninth. That means they need a lead-off hitter and a number 8 hitter and I am not overly concerned with upgrading the 8-hole in the lineup.
So what the Royals need is a leadoff hitter - and not necessarily a star, just a league-average one - and a couple of relievers who can strike guys out. If they further upgraded the bottom of the order, I wouldn't complain if they did so without trading away any real prospect capital, but as long as they focus on those other three acquisitions I think they'll be fine.
Also, could maybe settle for one reliever if we replaced two of those currently up (My vote is for Smith and Anderson) with Klein and Pennington.
Well, so much for my sweep thinking….frustrating with Ragans, Lugo, and Singer lined up too. Offense just didn’t do what they should in Colorado except for yesterday.
Caught most of the game Friday. I’m going to bring up Pennington….mainly because I was pretty interested to watch him after kind of the report you got from your people about it not working up here with the stuff and spin rates. IDK….he looked pretty normal stuff wise to me. It’s a slider that’s going to be pretty tough on lefties. I’m not saying he’s going to be Hader or anything…but I saw no reason he couldn’t be successful. So my frustration with them continues with Pennington. I guess they are too worried about too many lefties with Bubic now. But I’m to the point of just get the best guys up regardless of which side they throw from. Maybe they think they can flip Long for a little something. I guess it’s a fine problem to have. But man, the bullpen (Schrieber) hurt on Friday. Fine the other two days.
On Pennington, I'm just relaying what people have mentioned to me, and it was concern over the fact that the big strikeout numbers were more a result of lesser hitters because the shape of his pitches isn't remarkable. In his eight total pitches of which he threw no more than three of any pitch (so you really can't even scout anything from your couch), the slider spin rate was 2,362 rpms. The average for lefty sliders is 2,385. He was 92-93 on the hard stuff. The average for lefties is 93. I don't really think anyone doesn't think he *can* do it in the big leagues. I think most of the conversation was more around it not being what people might expect it to be based on his AAA numbers.
All that said, I'm disappointed he got sent down, but I think there is something to not wanting five lefties in your bullpen even if both Schreiber and Nick Anderson have options that could be utilized. I know the idea of get the best guys you can in there makes a lot of sense, but there are bigger picture issues to look at, and some of it is you don't want opponents to start to see too much of the same look. We talked about that a few weeks ago. As rough as it's been for the bullpen, at least they don't have a bunch of guys showing the same thing as the guy before them. I don't know. I'd have probably dealt with the five lefties, but I at least understand the thought process.
Yeah, I mean. I get it. Do I think he can help sure…in maybe the same way Long has. Did I see a real weapon…no probably not. But I think it is just frustrating cause I can feel this thing starting to slip away. It’s still kind of what I thought would happen…but it’s still frustrating non the less. They are improved from last year greatly. I’ll take it I guess.
The good news is they still have everything in front of them with their remaining games. They're 1.5 behind the Red Sox and still play them six times. They're only three behind the Twins. Hell, the Guardians August schedule is brutal. Their lead may be big enough to not matter, but they could have a tough month and really fall back to the pack. Nobody thought it would happen to the Yankees and here we are with them.
It seems like both Schreiber and Stratton have consistently struggled, and if you add in Will Smith it all adds up to a major "S" pitcher problem. It seems like we've seen enough not to trust any of them in close games. That's part of why Pennington being sent down is frustrating. I really have no idea who our 7th and 8th inning guys are but we just can't keep throwing these same guys out there and hope for different results.
I'd argue that Stratton has very inconsistently struggled. He's given up runs in roughly the same percentage of outings that some of the better relievers have. It's just that when he struggles, it's really bad. And Smith has a sub-1.00 WHIP in his last 23 appearances. Schreiber has been an issue for a bit. They need two or three pitchers to push these guys into middle reliever roles and they'll look a lot better.
Agree, if you look at the larger body of work it doesn't seem as bad with Stratton, but the last 3 outings they've been pretty bad. I just feel like we can't really trust any of these guys in late inning/close game situations right now.
That's fair. He's been 100% bad for the last week or so. That's what happens with middle relievers, though. A big issue is that he's having to be a leverage reliever.
Another big week coming up, especially the games against the Red Sox. Beyond the four/five all stars, what I see is: (1) the Royals are not a good team on the road, and they have more road games than home games remaining, (2) they are not currently in the playoffs, (3) they’ve had pretty good luck with injuries so far, (4) and, of course, their offense and bullpen are lacking and inconsistent. I’m not advocating a big sell off, but I think they need to approach the trade deadline strategically to look beyond this season.
I wouldn’t trade anyone with value for anyone who isn’t under team control beyond 2024, that’s for sure. You want to go get Tommy Pham and you’re trading Erick Pena for it. Cool. I don’t care about that. But don’t move Mason Barnett for Carlos Estevez. I still believe they should be focused on adding, but it is definitely not a go for it deadline at this point.
I wouldn’t trade for anyone who isn’t within team control through at least 2025. They should be targeting players who can help them for multiple years. And they have multiple players who they could trade who may be at peak trade value right now.
That's what I'm saying. They need to at least be in KC in 2025.
I'd argue that they have multiple players to move right now, though. You want to trade Singer or Wacha? Sure. You can't trade Lugo. I mentioned this in a comment the other day. It would destroy any credibility with free agents moving forward. You can't give a guy a multi-year deal and then trade him in the middle of the first year when you're contending. Whether it should be the case or not, I've had two agents tell me they'd change the way they deal with the Royals on free agents if they traded Lugo this year.
The start of this season was the first time in a long time the Royals built a cushion to keep them in play by the ASG. It was fun, but it also felt very much like the team was playing above their ability (as a whole), and then everyone came back to earth. What we got to see is what this team can be, if we add the right pieces now and during the offseason. I’m not riding any playoff hopes this season and if they make a couple of strategic moves at the ASG great, if the right deal isn’t there don’t do it.
David, excellent analysis as always. MLB has to do better on the replays. The fan literally took the ball out of Blanco’s glove which was in the field of play!!! I was glad to see Bubic look good in his one inning because we were both at the game on April 15, 2023 where it was obvious something was wrong with him. He helps solidify the bullpen and if necessary can be a 6th starter. I still do not like Melendez lunging at the ball as he starts his swing but the last 20 games he has been hitting. He is also no longer a defensive liability in the outfield. I agree with your analysis about two more relievers (Bubic and Pennington?) and two more bats IF they do not give up their top prospects. They are still in the playoff hunt and remember the Diamondbacks of last year! I wish I had laid down some bets early in the season that they would be NL champions!!! A crucial week starting tomorrow!
Yep, big big week for them. I think they need to go outside the organization for a reliever or two because I just don't think you can 100% count on Bubic or Pennington, even though both looked good in a limited sample.
Now that Bubic is back (and his performance is nothing short of remarkable only 15 months removed from FULL TJ surgery), let's speculate on next year's rotation.
We've got Ragans/Lugo/Singer as a locks (and under contract).
If Kyle Wright can return like Bubic (seemingly) has after a 12+ month layoff after surgery, then you have a decent looking 5-man starting rotation...and we haven't even talked about Wacha (depends on options) and Marsh! Now you can start thinking about possible trade scenarios among some of our minor league starting depth (and Lynch may be the worst of them)...unless they become studs (Kurdma?).
I keep forgetting about Wright, always nice to be reminded
I think I'd say Ragans and Lugo are locks for next year and Singer is if he's not traded. They might be moving him. I don't think they have to, but don't be surprised if they do. Your options for the remaining spots are the guys you mentioned and then Marsh as of right now. Chandler Champlain hasn't been great in AAA, but he could be a candidate as well. One thing I'm going to write about at some point is that Wacha is going to become a free agent. He's pitched well enough to do better than the one year and $16 million left on his contract. I think the Royals should give him the QO and he might actually accept that number, which should be around $20 million.
Replay review has gotten so bad that I was genuinely shocked when the challenge on the safe call at first was successful yesterday. I’ve started just assuming the Royals will lose replay challenges even if the video evidence clearly supports them.
Oh me too. I didn't even mention the HBP that didn't get overturned. That was bad too.
No kidding: it looked like Q was going to pull his hair out! One missed replay I could understand...2 I'm thinking "what's going on"...but 3 IN THE LAST WEEK means there has to be some sort of conspiracy!
The look on his face could tell a 10,000 page story.
Sports betting makes me doubt everything. Hard not to be a conspiracy theorist when you read about players getting death threats when they have a bad day at the plate, on the mound, or in the field.
The prevalance of sports betting makes every bad call stink. Say you're betting a Cole Ragans over/under on strikeouts of 7.5 and he has a bad call on a 3-2 pitch and strikes out seven. How do you handle that? It all sucks.
With Salvy no longer carrying the offense (.200/.267/.327 in his last 30 games) and Garcia in a deep slump (.152/.219/.457 in his last 30 games), what is your thinking on ways to correct the hitting problems. The outfield production has been nothing less than horrible. BWJ can't carry the entire load.
Other than Mitchell and Wallace (our only two minor leaguers with 50+ grades on MLB Pipeline), do we have anyone of value to trade? I can't imagine anyone wants Pratto (.254 with 28% strikeouts in AAA) or Waters (.259, also with a 28% strikeout rate).
WAR
Isbel .9
Renfroe .5 but .308/.388/.582 over his last 30 games
Frazier .2 ($4.5 million contract - UGH)
Hampson .1 ($2 million contract)
Blanco -.1
Waters -.1
Alexander -.2
Melendez -.3 (1241 career ABs with -.2 overall WAR)
Velazquez -.6
While you are at it, how do you fix the bullpen with essentially a 0 WAR through the first half. Stratton ($8 million - UGH) and Smith ($5 million - UGH) seem to have been horrible signings. Lugo was a great signing and maybe Wacha will be okay, but the other free agent signings were complete whiffs.
WAR measures a player's value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position (e.g., a Minor League replacement or a readily available fill-in free agent).
The outfield has kind of been fine for a bit now. MJ is hitting over the last three weeks, Renfroe is hitting since early May and Isbel had a great June, but also doesn't need to be great offensively because he hits ninth and plays great defense. They should probably be targeting someone who can play an infield spot, maybe third base. I wrote about them looking at third basemen back in February. Nothing Garcia has done this year should make them think they were wrong to do that. The problem is who is out there? There isn't much.
What I will say is that I think Will Smith gets unfairly criticized. He was AWFUL to start, but relievers simply can't recover numbers-wise from stretches like that. He's had a sub-1.00 WHIP for more than two months now. He's not a closer, but he's fine in middle relief. Stratton has generally been fine, but is unpredictable of *when* he won't be. Schreiber has been horrible.
The reality, though, as I've written so many times, is that the pieces this team needs just don't cost that much in deadline deals. I wrote about it in the Weekend in Review two weeks ago (I think? Maybe three?). They've got the pieces to go get the supplementary pieces in any deal and you wouldn't even think twice about them pulling the trigger on them.
Probably agree on Smith, but $5 million? I shudder every time Stratton comes into the game, but that goes for the entire bullpen.
Piccolo signed seven free agents with one big hit (Lugo), a maybe or two (Wacha, Renfroe) and it looks like at least four misses. That doesn't give me a lot of confidence in the front office.
15-24 since May 26, by my calculation. That ties back to the Perez and Garcia slumps. It seems to me someone has to pick up the slack if they are to contend, not just be replacement level players or "kind of fine".
Will supplement players do the job? I really don't think so. And who do they have to trade that is of any value other than Mitchell and Wallace?
Last, I must be missing something here: I haven’t seen the Melendez to which you refer. I have seen the one who is below replacement level over 1200 ABs.
Classy move putting BWJ in the Home Run Derby in Texas! Nice to see him representing. Did you comment on this same thing earlier or maybe I heard it somewhere else?
I had semi-broken that he was going to be in it last week on Twitter. Heard from a solid source that he was, so it was nice to have something first!
It’s the right thing to do & lends credibility to the Royals on a big stage.
You said we need better #5 and # 8 hitters. What about the lead-off spot? The lack of consistency there is killing the offense. With Witt hitting second, we've got to find a better lead-off guy. I'm not convinced Garcia is the guy. I was hoping he was. But he's clearly not.
Maybe what's really hurting the offense is that we have at least six players hitting .250 or below. I know you like Melendez, but (unless you're Kyle Schwarber) can you really have an everyday player hitting .190? At this point in his career, he is what he is.
What do you think the ceiling is on Pasquantino? I'm not as high on him as others are, but do you see him as a potential .300/30/100 guy?
Salvy's great start is ancient history now. It was nice while it lasted. I was really hoping he had changed his approach to stop swinging at bad pitches. He would be so much more productive if he did. You'd think he'd realize that based on the success he had early on. And the power's not there like it once was.
Look, I know a lot of these shortcomings are because we don't have anyone better to replace underperforming players with. I get it. How long will it take for the new coaching/instruction regime to see results in the farm system?
I don’t know that I said 5 and 8 hitters. They need two or three more bats. And yeah, leadoff hitter is one of them.
I also believed they should have demoted Melendez but they didn’t and now he’s hitting. And I think Pasquantino can still be a top-30 hitter in the game. That doesn’t necessarily mean .300/30/100. He can be a .350 OBP/.500 SLG guy though.
And the reality is the system takes time to change. That will change in a year or two if what they’re doing actually works.
I think fans, myself included, forget how much the system needs to change. Throughout the entire org. And one of the things they learned in our “evaluation year”, was that they needed more coaches.
As well, half of our position players have barely one season in the big leagues. Throw in a struggling pen and not every player is getting all of the attention it would be nice they did.
Great article as usual. I am interested to hear your thoughts (maybe an article is coming out about this?) on whether it's better for the Royals to be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline? I would love for the Royals to make the playoffs, but I don't think they have the players needed to make the necessary trades. I think long-term we would benefit much more if we traded Lugo and Wacha for high end prospects that could booster r upper minor leagues. My second question, r u hearing any whispers on who the Royals might be drafting in the upcoming draft?
Thanks, Ryan. I wrote about this a couple of weeks ago. They're within a game and a half of a playoff spot right now and have at least six games left with many of the teams directly in front of them. I don't think you can purely sell. I think you can be creative, but you also have to add to this roster for a number of reasons, but I think it's a disservice to the players and the fans to wave a white flag after the seasons they've had. Does that seem silly to go against long-term success? Maybe, but I also don't think selling gets nearly as much as you'd think.
For one, I've mentioned this too, but they can't trade Lugo. They just can't. I spoke with two agents. Both of them said that if the Royals trade Lugo in the middle of a contending season after giving him a multi-year deal that any multi-year deal in the future would require an extra year and an extra $2-$4 million per year. It's just not good business to promise something and then when that something is being delivered to pull the plug on it. As for the rest, I'm not sure they're getting all that much for anyone other than maybe Singer.
Wacha has a player option for $16 million. A team might want him, but that's a massive risk to take on. It lowers his value considerably. I'm not saying you don't explore the options, but I think you end up better off just keeping him based on what I've heard from a few people. Singer has two years of control and while his value isn't going to match his current performance, there are enough teams that would be interested in him that they can get a nice return there, but I think they wait until the offseason to make that move anyway.
Instead, my guess is they look for incremental upgrades that don't cost much (because those don't cost much) and maybe make a longer-term move that hurts a bit but at least gets someone back for the future. I think whatever team acquires Jazz Chisholm is going to badly overpay for a solid but not great player, but a deal like that is something I could see them making if they can figure out the proper return and beat other teams' offers. Then they'd have someone for the future as well. But no, I don't think they can or should sell.
I hate it when people get overly analytical of managers and their lineups, but I attended all 3 games this weekend in Colorado and I was genuinely frustrated by the lineups Q put out there. Hampson got too much run and we only got 1 game of Massey. I know Q puts a huge value on rotating guys in and out and then puts a big focus on righty and lefty splits, but bottom line: with the team struggling (and rest days coming up!) it would have been nice to simply put the best bats in the lineup to try and give your team a chance to win a series or even sweep it. I hope we get the chance to see if Q continues lineup construction like this in a playoff series or if he simply puts his best 9 guys out there.
The thing we don't know about Massey is just how available he is every day. They are doing what they can to ease him back into the lineup regularly and they've been pretty open that he's still sort of rehabbing at the big league level. With that in mind, lefties on the mound might have been the excuse to keep him out of there. I agree, though, that they need to put their best in there more often. I just think the Massey situation in particular might not be as cut and dry as just playing platoons, even if that's what they said publicly.
I'm a day late, but had to get this off my chest: I can't figure out what the replay team was thinking on the home run call.
I can understand (but disagree with) the call a week earlier. The ball hit the arm connecting the net to the pole, but that's only "clear" because of the way the ball ricocheted off the horizontal arm, which was different from how it would have acted if it hit the vertical pole. The pole itself blocked the view of the ball and so I could understand the replay officials struggling to find "clear and convincing evidence" to overturn the bad call on the field.
There's no dancing around the Blanco call. There's a camera shot that shows the fan's hands undeniably in the field of play, on the wrong side of the outer edge of the fence. The camera is even slightly angled backward, so the extent that the fan's hands are in the field of play is somewhat concealed - but they're clearly past the fence. I just can't understand the logic and I think it's REALLY problematic that the league hasn't addressed it beyond the email they sent out a few minutes later.
Oh it's a huge issue. The fact that even on a replay review, they didn't get the call right and everyone in the world sees it is insane.
When I look at the Royals' lineup I don't think it's even 2 bats off.
You've got Witt, Salvy, and Vinnie to bat in the middle. Renfroe, Massey, and Garcia to bat in the mid-bottom. Isbel to bat ninth. That means they need a lead-off hitter and a number 8 hitter and I am not overly concerned with upgrading the 8-hole in the lineup.
So what the Royals need is a leadoff hitter - and not necessarily a star, just a league-average one - and a couple of relievers who can strike guys out. If they further upgraded the bottom of the order, I wouldn't complain if they did so without trading away any real prospect capital, but as long as they focus on those other three acquisitions I think they'll be fine.
Also, could maybe settle for one reliever if we replaced two of those currently up (My vote is for Smith and Anderson) with Klein and Pennington.