Weekend in Review: Defensive Confusion, Another Sweep Avoided and the Week to Come

The Royals have sort of become masters at winning one game and avoiding that sweep. I guess that's something.

The Royals started the year by getting swept. Then they were swept in two straight series a couple of weeks later in the middle of a seven-game losing streak. So that’s three sweeps in six series to start the year. That’s to be expected for a team pacing to be one of the 10 worst teams of all time. But they’ve actually only been swept twice in their next 13 series. They have made a specialty out of winning just one game in a series, doing it 11 times this year. I guess what I’m trying to say is sort of what I’ve said a bit over the last couple of weeks. This team is bad in such weird ways.

They lost those seven in a row in April, but they’ve lost four in a row twice and three in a row seven different times. I’m not sure what it is they’re doing that’s allowing them to generally avoid the long losing streak, but even with their rough rotation, they’ve only gone one time through that rotation without a win once all season. There’s just something very odd about their inability to get wins Every time you turn around and think you’re going to see something very telling, it’s sort of the opposite. I wrote on Friday that we’ve seen some very real improvements from the pitching staff as a whole and some individuals. I honestly just find myself struggling to properly evaluate this team sometimes.

Defensive Differences

Watching the Royals every day, I think most would agree that the Royals defense is inconsistent at best. I think they’ve figured out a nice infield formula with some combination of Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., Michael Massey and Nicky Lopez at second, third and short. And I think first base looks great when Nick Pratto is there and good enough when Vinnie Pasquantino is there. Jackie Bradley Jr. is still a great defender in the outfield. Drew Waters has looked good in his limited time this year and Kyle Isbel was great before the injury. But still, it’s an inconsistent defense.

And if you look at defensive runs saved, they’re not just inconsistent but bad. They rank 28th in baseball with -19 DRS. That’s horrific. Only the Nationals and A’s are worse. And you can look at that number and think that, yeah, that’s about right. Especially when you think about Saturday’s game and the first inning in particular. But then you look at outs above average, which is Statcast’s metric. It’s not just that the two metrics differ a little. It ranks the Royals as the fourth-best in baseball with 10 OAA, behind only the Padres, Diamondbacks and Mariners. Fangraphs also has a defensive metric for value and the Royals are fifth in baseball in that.

I guess if we go by majority, they’re a good defense because two of three metrics like them, but what gives here? With regard to OAA, the Royals are third-best in baseball on the infield! I would not have expected that. They collectively struggle a bit to their right which is kind of odd, but they’re great going to their left and coming in and going back. In the outfield, they’re middle of the pack at -1, but that’s in the corners with MJ Melendez, Edward Olivares and others. So if you believe OAA, the Royals defense when Isbel returns might actually be pretty darn good.

Now, DRS tells a similar story in the outfield. They’re second-best in center field, but seventh-worst overall. So it’s even more drastic there. But the infield is where it gets so different. At shortstop, for example, the Royals are +5 OAA, but -3 DRS. That’s almost entirely Witt. At second base, they’re +3 OAA and -4 DRS. I think some of it is the denominator is different. One is calculating runs and one is calculating outs, but one leads to the other, so I don’ tknow. What does this tell us? I think a couple of things. One is that defensive stats are pretty finicky. But another is that I think the defense is sort of like the rest of this team. I don’t quite understand anything about them. If you look one way, you think they’ve got some pieces. If you look another way, it feels like there’s no chance they can ever compete.

I guess I don’t have a real point here other than that I thought it was an odd difference and wanted to point it out. The Nationals are the only other team with a similarly massive gap between DRS and OAA. They’re -21 DRS and 0 OAA, but nobody jumps from terrible to good between those two stats. It’s just…odd. Like this season.

The Games

Friday - Rockies 7, Royals 2

As you know, the Royals are not legally allowed to come out victorious in a game in which Jordan Lyles starts. But, boy, when he has a good start like he did in this one, that law just seems mean-spirited. He looked the best we’ve seen him as a member of the Royals. He went five innings, gave up just one run on two hits and struck out eight while he walked one. He threw just 74 pitches to get through those five, but I don’t think anyone was worried about the decision to get him out before seeing a lineup a third time.

Still, the value of hindsight makes you wonder if he should have gone into the sixth and maybe later. His four-seamer was fantastic and because it was so good, he went with it a lot more than he had in the past. The 54.8 percent usage was the second-most in a game this year. It was about 20 percent higher than his season average. I don’t know if it was the extra days off because the Royals stayed on rotation with him in spite of the two off-days preceding this game, but his velocity was up on everything.

His fastball was 1.7 MPH up. His sweeper was up by 1.3 MPH. His curve was 1.2 MPH higher. His sinker was 2.5 MPH higher, though he threw just three of them. And he really limited his curve usage, going with the sweeper a lot more. With regard to the fastball, there may be some changes the team has made that aren’t drastic, but could make a bit of a difference. His released the ball a little closer to home plate the last few games and it looks like he’s dropped down a touch on it as well to give it a little more ride. He did show improved velocity with it in his start prior to this one and was way down in the first start where the horizontal release point dipped, so that could be a sign of working on something.

Either way, it’s at least given me something to be interested in the next time he starts. One game can be a blip on the radar, but it can also be the start of something. Given the contract, I’m obviously hoping it’s the start of something and it can be another win for this pitching development staff. But, in spite of this being positive about Lyles, don’t forget the Royals lost. They had a lead with a home run in the second from Olivares, who looked for a minute like he might be starting to heat up.

In the third, Drew Waters hit a very impressive homer the opposite way to give the Royals a 2-1 lead.

They’d carry that lead through the sixth with Taylor Clarke and the seven with Jose Cuas. When the bullpen gate opened up before the eighth, it wasn’t Aroldis Chapman coming out but Carlos Hernandez. You might remember that Chapman’s knee was acting up on Tuesday in St. Louis, so the Royals opted to give him another day of rest, giving his inning to the guy in the bullpen with maybe the closest stuff. And man, it just didn’t work. It didn’t feel like Hernandez was pitching particularly poorly, but he looked like old Hernandez when he couldn’t get a swing and miss.

He gave up a soft single on what I thought was a good 1-2 pitch to Brenton Doyle. He hung a slider a bit to Equequiel Tovar for a double, and that was trouble with runners on second and third and nobody out. He got a groundout with the infield in on a splitter that could have been a couple more inches to the arm side, but Pratto made a great play to get that job done.

And then in a long battle with Jurickson Profar, the still-young veteran hit the 10th pitch on the ground to second, but Nicky Lopez had to go to his knees to field it and couldn’t get the runner at the plate. Looking back, you wish that they had just conceded the run and a tie game because Ryan McMahon hit a 70.1 MPH single to left to score the third run and that was it for Hernandez.

He faced five hitters, was at two strikes with four of them and just couldn’t put them away. I’m still incredibly encouraged by him. He was throwing hard. His pitches were moving. He threw strikes. But it just didn’t work in this one. That’ll happen. When he left, he was replaced by Nick Wittgren who has, honestly, looked horrible since his callup. Maybe he was in AAA for a reason through his opt-out date. He gave up a double, a single, a fielder’s choice and then another double to get the Rockies their final runs of the inning and that was that.

Saturday - Rockies 6, Royals 4

This game was ugly. I’m thankful that I was at a wedding and missed most of it. So congrats to Claire and CJ and thanks for picking this game for me to miss! I also have to apologize to the winner of the ticket giveaway, Hayden R., for getting this one as his ticket-winner. I did see a bit of the top of the first, which was the real ugly part and went back and watched some of Daniel Lynch’s outing to get an idea of if he was good or bad the rest of the way.

I’ll tell you this. I came away encouraged by him. I know exit velocity isn’t everything, but he allowed two singles on balls hit 75.7 MPH or slower and then a triple on a well-placed fly ball that was then misplayed by Melendez. And the subsequent sacrifice fly should have been just advancing the runner to third, at best, if it wasn’t played poorly in the right field corner. Oh yeah, and how could I forget Witt not starting at least the force at second on the game’s second batter. I don’t know that it would have been a double play, but I think maybe.

In the end, Lynch gave up five runs on three hits in the first inning. He gave the Rockies a runner by hitting Charlie Blackmon to lead off the game, but he deserved a better fate in the first, and ultimately in the game. I loved the way he used his fastball up in the zone and I think his changeup emerged for a second straight start as his second-best pitch. You can do a lot of damage with a fastball and a changeup, especially if you’ve got a breaking ball working to supplement it.

In this one, his fastball got hit a little bit, but pretty much when he didn’t get it up in the zone high enough, so thats’ a lesson for him. But his changeup was pure filth. He threw 22 of them, got 15 swings and seven whiffs. Five of them were fouled off and three were put in play, none hit hard.

This is the kind of pitch it was on Saturday afternoon/evening. If he can continue to do that, I think he’s going to be just fine.

This was a game marred by mistakes. Witt’s error in the first was bad. Melendez’s inability to play the fly ball to right was bad. Witt also had another blunder in the third when he singled and then got picked off third by Elias Diaz. Now, this was bad. Not to go full Hudler on everyone, but I think I was a little less frustrated about this on a rewatch because I’ve seen guys get that far off quite a bit. He was too far, yes, and it was a mistake, but Diaz made a gorgeous throw to third. Bad, yes, horrific, no. The result was horrific.

It also felt even worse when Garcia followed it with a single to score one and it could have scored two, but as I always say, we don’t know what would have happened if the previous play hadn’t. Still, I appreciate the offense continuing to chip away as they pretty much have all season. They couldn’t get it done, but this team, for all its faults, doesn’t quit. Down five in the first and they were still scoring in the ninth inning to try to make it back. As is the case so often, they gave themselves a shot, but it was only after they gave themselves no shot early.

Sunday - Royals 2, Rockies 0

After Lynch showed something without great results, it was Brady Singer’s turn. While we’ve all been curious to see Lynch, Singer is the one we’re the most interested in, I think. After his 2022 season, he’s been pretty horrible this year for a number of reasons. But after seeing his ERA jump to near 9.00 after a bad start against the A’s, of all teams, he’s been a little better numerically in his last four. He has a 4.35 ERA and 4.11 FIP over 20.2 innings, but he’s still struck out just 16 and walked 11. It’s better, but certainly not good.

I think something may have started to click against the Nationals his last time out, though, when gave up two runs on four hits with six strikeouts over five innings. It carried over to this one. The final line is shiny. No runs on five hits in 5.2 innings with seven strikeouts and no walks. I thought his first inning showed some promise. He did hang a slider that ended up as an out, but threw a couple others that were very good. But, from that point on, other than when Nolan Jones was batting, he looked great.

He had his sinker working, though the velocity is still hovering where it’s been all year. He got 11 called strikes on it, though he did get just two grounders on it, if my math is correct. He also didn’t get a single swing on his sinker on one outside the zone. I wonder a little if that’s a scouting report thing now. If you pick up sinker out of his hand and it starts at whatever point, don’t swing. He did throw a lot more pitches in the zone with it. That’s interesting. So not a perfect day, but it looked so much better to me.

His slider was probably the best I’ve seen it all year. He got 21 swings, nine whiffs and six foul balls. He threw it a ton. It was the pitch he needs it to be if he’s going to get back to what he did last season. I’ve written so much about Singer that I don’t need to get too deep into everything with him, but he absolutely showed out a lot more than he had in previous starts. I thought he filled up the zone pretty well, but did catch a little too much of the middle and maybe could have gotten hit by a better offense.

But he looked fantastic. Slowly but surely, things are looking up. Here are his last five starts now:

26.1 IP
28 H
23 K (19.7%)
11 BB (9.4%)
3.42 ERA
3.40 FIP

There is still obviously room for improvement, but that’s much better. I thought Matt Quatraro was perfect on his timing with the hook. He gave up a two-out single to Mike Moustakas in the sixth inning of a 1-0 game and Jones was coming to the plate. Jones had hit him hard, Singer was at 95 pitches and that was it for him. He wasn’t going to be given the chance to let Jones beat him and take away his chance for that win and I really appreciate that. It helps that Clarke got Jones to end the inning, but I’d have liked the move if Jones hit a two-run homer. Process over results, friends.

The offense was fairly stymied by Kyle Freeland all day. They didn’t get their first hit until the fifth inning and even that probably shouldn’t have been ruled a hit. But Melendez hit a grounder to the right side that Harold Castro couldn’t field and Melendez hustled that into a double when Jones was a little slow to get to the ball in right. A Massey line drive drove him home for the game’s first run. Then they got to him once more in the eighth on Garcia’s first big league home run.

It was a bit anticlimactic as they had to review it, but it’ll still be on his Baseball Reference page forever. That gave the Royals and Scott Barlow a little ninth inning insurance that he wouldn’t need as he continued pitching extremely well, though there were two on and two out, so the insurance did make everyone feel a little better.

The pitching staff was great as a whole in this one. You know what Singer did, but Clarke, Chapman and Barlow combined for 3.1 innings with seven strikeouts and no walks. That’s a strong day and they needed it when the offense could only push two across.

What’s Next

The Royals held to Miami for a three-game set with the Marlins, who are in second place in the NL East. They’re certainly not there because of their offense. They rank dead last in the NL in runs scored, though they’re ahead of four AL teams. I think they’re probably a bit unlucky with sequencing, though. They’re sixth in baseball in average, 15th in OBP and 18th in SLG. That’s not a formula for one of the worst offenses in terms of runs scored. They have three guys having excellent seasons. Old nemesis Luis Arraez is hitting .392 so far this year. Old friend Jorge Soler has 17 homers and a .532 SLG. And someone nobody in Kansas City has ever cared about, Jesus Sanchez, is their best overall hitter probably, hitting .302/.381/.547.

The pitching, which was supposed to be their strength, hasn’t been as good because Sandy Alcantara has struggled a bit coming off his Cy Young season. He has a 5.07 ERA, but even so I’m glad the Royals will miss him. They’ll get Braxton Garrett, Jesus Luzardo and Edward Cabrera and will counter with Hernandez/Mike Mayers, Zack Greinke and Lyles. The Marlins throw a lot of stuff at you from their pitching staff. Their bullpen has been solid enough too, so this’ll be a tough series for the Royals offense. I could see them rising to the occasion, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they struck out 35 times in three games.

Then it’s on to Baltimore to finish their season-series with another surprise second place team. The Orioles are without Cedric Mullins, but they can still hit and it looks like the Royals will see Tyler Wells, Austin Voth and Kyle Gibson. While the Orioles are middle of the pack in terms of team ERA, the Royals did score six or more in all three games against them in KC at the start of May, so that’ll be interesting to see if they can do that again. Maybe their pitching can hold up a little better to win more than one if they do that.