Say what you want, 95% of this comes from coaching. Quartero and Sweeney are making Eldred and Matheny look like geniuses. You are busting about the defenses, it’s still coaching, out of positions, look at the good SS and 2B, they were always in good position, they used the catchers signals and player knowledge to position themselves by the pitch, Ripken didn’t have to make a ton of diving plays he was always in position, they didn’t have to over exaggerate a shift or play in the grass (no longer), they played and were coached smarter. Too many specialized coaches now and not enough good old baseball smarts. Isbel back, good bye Bradley. Line up is too inconsistent day to day. Isbel and Lopez should be the next to go.
I don't know that I could disagree with you more. Quatraro has had some issues, but I think his leadership has been a big reason why the team simply doesn't quit. There's a learning curve here and if he's still doing some of the things he's done in the first third in the last third, I might change my tune, but I think he's done a great job with getting pitchers out when he has. And as for Sweeney, I'm looking for improvement. In the last 30 days, the staff is 14th in baseball in ERA, 4th in FIP and 8th in strikeout rate. They still walk too many guys, no doubt, but there is very real improvement there.
Yikes, there is so much to unpack here! Great article! But I want to focus on just a couple of things. First, you're absolutely right, the defense appeared to be actively sabotaging Daniel Lynch. That was both frustrating and disappointing.
But my main question involves Carlos Hernandez: have you heard any theories from credible sources why his velocity dropped so suddenly last year? General arm fatigue? (Unlikely given his age and previous workload.) One or more injuries? Flawed mechanics? Something else?
And that brings up a related question: how did he get his velocity back so quickly? (Not that I'm complaining!) Does anybody have a good idea or theory about that particular process?
I haven't heard anything that I'd consider an actual answer on Hernandez, but enough people I've talked to think it was a combination him trying to be able to go deeper into games and to take something off to throw more strikes. Being able to air it out in shorter situations has been really beneficial for him, but what I think is so interesting is that it hasn't come at the expense of control. I was actually thinking of looking at some videos to see if there was a big difference in mechanics, but just haven't gotten around to it yet. But it should also be noted that his average fastball velocity in 2021 was 97.2 compared to 96.8 last year, so it wasn't a massive difference. If I had to guess, I'd say the move to relieving full-time is the bulk of it, but a bump of 2 MPH is nothing to sneeze at.
This might be overly simplistic, I don’t know the formulas to OAA and DRS but assuming they measure what they say they measure, could a reasonable theory be that the Royals don’t make the easy plays (see DRS) but make the harder plays (see OAA)?
I would have to dig in more, but maybe? I know that's not the answer you were hoping for, but it could make some sense. Anecdotally, I think it seems like they do kick the ball around on routine plays, but I think that's because we remember them more.
Thanks David, didn’t get to see Friday or Sunday’s games but saw the majority of Saturday. Made a point to watch some of Lynch. Came away……disgusted really. But that’s not the point….Lynch looked pretty good to me. I don’t see a top of the rotation starter BUT THAT’S OK. A solid middle of the rotation starter would be a god send to this team right now. With the opportunity to continue to grow. As far as your defensive stats…..I don’t watch every game like you…I would certainly try more if they were even average…..but the games I do see….I see more of the bad defense than I do the good defense which makes those defensive stats even more interesting. For instance, Saturday I watched the error at SS and then Melendez misplay a ball….usually my games are involving Olivares….so this was a nice change of pace. They may have made some great plays the other days to even it out…so this is a bit of just a when you watch observation. Inconsistent at best is probably accurate.
2. I had to turn off Hud on Saturday. I can usually do ok with him…but had to mute and put it on in the background. I understand they are trying to talk up the team but if every player was as good as you’d say they are Hud, this team would have more than 18 wins or whatever it is at this point. Just call the game as it is please.
3. Super encouraged by the walk numbers you have thrown out. I see that stat and keep hearing about how the pitching numbers are better. And I believe it, but then wonder how they aren’t winning more games. Not that it matters, but it would just be nice to see some more W’s.
I saw your comment after I started writing this and meant to go back, so I'm glad you mentioned it again here. I think some of it is that you're getting unlucky in what you end up watching, but I think some of it is they have had some very bad defensive games. I think it's gotten a lot better lately with Garcia or Lopez at third, but their corner outfielders are so bad and the infield is so young that they are prone to some mistakes, so it kind of shines through sometimes.
I think I've said this before about Hud, but I was told when he was hired that you absolutely despise him if and when the team is bad but you love him when the team is good. I think that's been the case in KC, though I wonder a little if people are just tired of him in general and even if they won next year, maybe they'd be tired of him then too.
And I completely agree that the pitching not leading to more wins is a little disappointing, but seeing the forest through the trees is important in a year like this. I'm really intrigued by what this staff has done with this group of pitchers. Maybe it all falls apart again at some point, but the trend is good for now.
Here’s what I can’t figure out David. Using you as my therapist at the moment for my sports issues. This has happened a few times now this year. For instance I watched Saturday, Royals had a bad defensive game, I get it. But I was so UNIMPRESSED with the Rockies. But they still lose two out of three. Was so umimpressed with the Nationals….same deal. And I know, wins don’t mean much this year. But I can’t quite wrap my head around how they are losing all these series to some of these teams. I don’t think we are any worse than the Rockies….and one series doesn’t mean anything right. But it’s happened too many times now that you’re just like….We must be. So then I can’t figure out if Nolan Jones for instance is our Melendez….and the talent is just not there yet for the Royals with this group. Some disconnect is there I can’t figure out…cause I think the coaching has been good.
It's sort of what I've written about lately. The loss by five runs on Friday was their first by more than four since April. They're in EVERY SINGLE GAME. Some they're more in than others, but they've lost by more than four runs twice since like April 19 or something like that. They've had one long losing streak and then a bunch of short ones. How are they able to limit the losing streaks without ever going on a winning streak? I think it all depends on your perspective.
The glass half full is that they're young and figuring it out and one of these days, it'll click and they'll start to win more of these games and instead of losing three and winning one, then losing three and winning two, they'll win three and lose one and then win five and lose one and so on. The glass half empty is that they're not getting any younger. They've almost all had a full year of experience or more and they're still making silly mistakes. And they can't win consistently because the starting rotation isn't giving them that chance. I don't know. I think if you continue down the path you're on, the likelihood is that some losses turn to wins and then things can snowball, but it's hard to say day in and day out for sure.
I think you nailed it with this comment, David. That's been my thought watching most of the games this year (although thankful I missed Friday and Saturday's). They do seem like an enigma that will make more sense when we look back a year or two from now. We'll know better then whether this was a young, talented team going through their growing pains and learning to win, or if it was just a collection of young players that weren't that talented (collectively) to begin with. Hoping for the former obviously. And I still believe it will be. As I said, I missed seeing the Friday/Saturday games, but was encouraged to see Bobby seem to totally own his miscues and take ownership. Still hoping he can learn some discipline at the dish, but that kid carries himself a lot older than 22. I wonder if that doesn't work against him at times...he wants to help the team so badly that it seems to lead to being too quick on defense at times, and too aggressive at the plate and on the bases. But I'd take his makeup and professionalism all day long, I'd just like it to come with a walk every now and then!
The coaching has been good….but Q needed to sit Bobby yesterday. At some point….getting doubled off first on an infield pop up I heard Friday….error in the first inning and then getting picked off third. I don’t care about the error it happens. The other two….come on man. I know your super talented 22 year old but Q….its ok to send a message to your best player even that’s not good enough.
The popup on Friday was the worst baserunning I've ever seen. I didn't write about it because I didn't want to get mad again. Here's where I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I don't know that I agree either. It's Q's job to know his player. Does giving a guy day send a message to him that you don't want to send? Maybe Witt getting back out there is better for him whereas maybe Garcia needs to sit after that happens. Just two examples, but that's good leadership to know the answers. I don't know if he was right to play him or not, but that's the sort of thing as I've managed people in my career that I understand a lot better now. Everyone is different and everyone has a different way they get reached, so I'm a lot slower to call for this guy or that guy sitting after various issues. That, of course, only applies if the player is giving effort. If they're loafing, I think they always sit, but that's not the case with Witt.
I had looked the other day at the Fangraphs leaderboards so I knew that the offense was 14th in baseball by fWAR in May, but I was quite surprised to see that the pitching was also middle of the pack (17th in baseball), so you would've maybe expected them to have a better record than 10-17 over that span. Something that also might support your point about them being in most games is that their Pythag W/L is 4 games better than their actual record, though that's not necessarily a guarantee that things will level out; regardless a -75 run differential is bad but not what you'd expect for an 18-41 team. No real point there, just some additional things to think about.
Absolutely. They're kind of an enigma. And they were just -6 in May, but seven games under. Some of it is bad timing on bad pitching/bad hitting, but some of it could even out over time. I don't know. I just don't watch this team and think "wow, they're one of the 10 worst teams ever." And yet, that's what they're pacing for.
oof, thought we might win this one many innings ago
Enjoyed the article, thank you for articulating much of what I have been thinking: "I don’t quite understand anything about them. If you look one way, you think they’ve got some pieces. If you look another way, it feels like there’s no chance they can ever compete."
And were you kinda positive about Lyles?? Ha either way I am happy to see him doing ok, happy to see Singer maybe improving, and happily surprised to see Lynch looking ok
Why few sweeps and so weirdly not looking awful considering record? I have to wonder if that is a coaching thing. Maybe just a youth optimism thing, but have to think they are getting some support from coaching. They don't seem to give-up (but I am starting to get concerned about MJ even though I am a big fan)
Of course I was positive about Lyles! He pitched well! I don't like the signing, but gotta call a spade a spade.
I do think the leadership of this team, both in the coaching staff and on the roster has been excellent to keep them competing. At some point, they have to do more than compete, but it's a good base.
And yeah, Pratto has been awesome. I tweeted last night that we need to be talking much more about him. He's a great example of a player making adjustments and seeing them pay dividends.
Looks like Tuesdays line-up and defensive alignment might be the best all year.
Feel that there should have been a lot more improvement since last year, seeing deja vu. Injuries haven’t helped, and yes there is more motivation than last year, it shows. Not running enough, swinging at too many ball 4’s, Melendez still doesn’t look comfortable in the outfield, Lopez’s bat is waste, won’t miss Bradley when Isbel returns. Everything is just too inconsistent, both offensively and defensively, no consistent line-up. Consistency builds quality, dependability, improvement, passion, reliability and success.
Say what you want, 95% of this comes from coaching. Quartero and Sweeney are making Eldred and Matheny look like geniuses. You are busting about the defenses, it’s still coaching, out of positions, look at the good SS and 2B, they were always in good position, they used the catchers signals and player knowledge to position themselves by the pitch, Ripken didn’t have to make a ton of diving plays he was always in position, they didn’t have to over exaggerate a shift or play in the grass (no longer), they played and were coached smarter. Too many specialized coaches now and not enough good old baseball smarts. Isbel back, good bye Bradley. Line up is too inconsistent day to day. Isbel and Lopez should be the next to go.
I don't know that I could disagree with you more. Quatraro has had some issues, but I think his leadership has been a big reason why the team simply doesn't quit. There's a learning curve here and if he's still doing some of the things he's done in the first third in the last third, I might change my tune, but I think he's done a great job with getting pitchers out when he has. And as for Sweeney, I'm looking for improvement. In the last 30 days, the staff is 14th in baseball in ERA, 4th in FIP and 8th in strikeout rate. They still walk too many guys, no doubt, but there is very real improvement there.
Has Pratto ever been tried at 3B, good glove and reaction time
He's a lefty thrower. It would never work.
Yikes, there is so much to unpack here! Great article! But I want to focus on just a couple of things. First, you're absolutely right, the defense appeared to be actively sabotaging Daniel Lynch. That was both frustrating and disappointing.
But my main question involves Carlos Hernandez: have you heard any theories from credible sources why his velocity dropped so suddenly last year? General arm fatigue? (Unlikely given his age and previous workload.) One or more injuries? Flawed mechanics? Something else?
And that brings up a related question: how did he get his velocity back so quickly? (Not that I'm complaining!) Does anybody have a good idea or theory about that particular process?
I think he had a blister he was dealing with that night. Probably messed with his grip.
He's asking about last year vs. this year. I think the velocity was fine on Friday actually. But yeah, the blister was an issue.
I haven't heard anything that I'd consider an actual answer on Hernandez, but enough people I've talked to think it was a combination him trying to be able to go deeper into games and to take something off to throw more strikes. Being able to air it out in shorter situations has been really beneficial for him, but what I think is so interesting is that it hasn't come at the expense of control. I was actually thinking of looking at some videos to see if there was a big difference in mechanics, but just haven't gotten around to it yet. But it should also be noted that his average fastball velocity in 2021 was 97.2 compared to 96.8 last year, so it wasn't a massive difference. If I had to guess, I'd say the move to relieving full-time is the bulk of it, but a bump of 2 MPH is nothing to sneeze at.
It's about time we petition the Powers That Be to change the "Lyles Can't Win" law.
You know how long it takes for a bill to become a law. He's only on a two-year deal!
insert rolling eyes emoji here :)
"Inside The Crown" - come for the analysis, stay for the Schoolhouse Rock
This might be overly simplistic, I don’t know the formulas to OAA and DRS but assuming they measure what they say they measure, could a reasonable theory be that the Royals don’t make the easy plays (see DRS) but make the harder plays (see OAA)?
That certainly describes BWJ's defensive career so far.
I would have to dig in more, but maybe? I know that's not the answer you were hoping for, but it could make some sense. Anecdotally, I think it seems like they do kick the ball around on routine plays, but I think that's because we remember them more.
Thanks David, didn’t get to see Friday or Sunday’s games but saw the majority of Saturday. Made a point to watch some of Lynch. Came away……disgusted really. But that’s not the point….Lynch looked pretty good to me. I don’t see a top of the rotation starter BUT THAT’S OK. A solid middle of the rotation starter would be a god send to this team right now. With the opportunity to continue to grow. As far as your defensive stats…..I don’t watch every game like you…I would certainly try more if they were even average…..but the games I do see….I see more of the bad defense than I do the good defense which makes those defensive stats even more interesting. For instance, Saturday I watched the error at SS and then Melendez misplay a ball….usually my games are involving Olivares….so this was a nice change of pace. They may have made some great plays the other days to even it out…so this is a bit of just a when you watch observation. Inconsistent at best is probably accurate.
2. I had to turn off Hud on Saturday. I can usually do ok with him…but had to mute and put it on in the background. I understand they are trying to talk up the team but if every player was as good as you’d say they are Hud, this team would have more than 18 wins or whatever it is at this point. Just call the game as it is please.
3. Super encouraged by the walk numbers you have thrown out. I see that stat and keep hearing about how the pitching numbers are better. And I believe it, but then wonder how they aren’t winning more games. Not that it matters, but it would just be nice to see some more W’s.
I saw your comment after I started writing this and meant to go back, so I'm glad you mentioned it again here. I think some of it is that you're getting unlucky in what you end up watching, but I think some of it is they have had some very bad defensive games. I think it's gotten a lot better lately with Garcia or Lopez at third, but their corner outfielders are so bad and the infield is so young that they are prone to some mistakes, so it kind of shines through sometimes.
I think I've said this before about Hud, but I was told when he was hired that you absolutely despise him if and when the team is bad but you love him when the team is good. I think that's been the case in KC, though I wonder a little if people are just tired of him in general and even if they won next year, maybe they'd be tired of him then too.
And I completely agree that the pitching not leading to more wins is a little disappointing, but seeing the forest through the trees is important in a year like this. I'm really intrigued by what this staff has done with this group of pitchers. Maybe it all falls apart again at some point, but the trend is good for now.
Here’s what I can’t figure out David. Using you as my therapist at the moment for my sports issues. This has happened a few times now this year. For instance I watched Saturday, Royals had a bad defensive game, I get it. But I was so UNIMPRESSED with the Rockies. But they still lose two out of three. Was so umimpressed with the Nationals….same deal. And I know, wins don’t mean much this year. But I can’t quite wrap my head around how they are losing all these series to some of these teams. I don’t think we are any worse than the Rockies….and one series doesn’t mean anything right. But it’s happened too many times now that you’re just like….We must be. So then I can’t figure out if Nolan Jones for instance is our Melendez….and the talent is just not there yet for the Royals with this group. Some disconnect is there I can’t figure out…cause I think the coaching has been good.
It's sort of what I've written about lately. The loss by five runs on Friday was their first by more than four since April. They're in EVERY SINGLE GAME. Some they're more in than others, but they've lost by more than four runs twice since like April 19 or something like that. They've had one long losing streak and then a bunch of short ones. How are they able to limit the losing streaks without ever going on a winning streak? I think it all depends on your perspective.
The glass half full is that they're young and figuring it out and one of these days, it'll click and they'll start to win more of these games and instead of losing three and winning one, then losing three and winning two, they'll win three and lose one and then win five and lose one and so on. The glass half empty is that they're not getting any younger. They've almost all had a full year of experience or more and they're still making silly mistakes. And they can't win consistently because the starting rotation isn't giving them that chance. I don't know. I think if you continue down the path you're on, the likelihood is that some losses turn to wins and then things can snowball, but it's hard to say day in and day out for sure.
I think you nailed it with this comment, David. That's been my thought watching most of the games this year (although thankful I missed Friday and Saturday's). They do seem like an enigma that will make more sense when we look back a year or two from now. We'll know better then whether this was a young, talented team going through their growing pains and learning to win, or if it was just a collection of young players that weren't that talented (collectively) to begin with. Hoping for the former obviously. And I still believe it will be. As I said, I missed seeing the Friday/Saturday games, but was encouraged to see Bobby seem to totally own his miscues and take ownership. Still hoping he can learn some discipline at the dish, but that kid carries himself a lot older than 22. I wonder if that doesn't work against him at times...he wants to help the team so badly that it seems to lead to being too quick on defense at times, and too aggressive at the plate and on the bases. But I'd take his makeup and professionalism all day long, I'd just like it to come with a walk every now and then!
The coaching has been good….but Q needed to sit Bobby yesterday. At some point….getting doubled off first on an infield pop up I heard Friday….error in the first inning and then getting picked off third. I don’t care about the error it happens. The other two….come on man. I know your super talented 22 year old but Q….its ok to send a message to your best player even that’s not good enough.
I’m not saying bench him…but give him the day off to clear the mind.
The popup on Friday was the worst baserunning I've ever seen. I didn't write about it because I didn't want to get mad again. Here's where I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I don't know that I agree either. It's Q's job to know his player. Does giving a guy day send a message to him that you don't want to send? Maybe Witt getting back out there is better for him whereas maybe Garcia needs to sit after that happens. Just two examples, but that's good leadership to know the answers. I don't know if he was right to play him or not, but that's the sort of thing as I've managed people in my career that I understand a lot better now. Everyone is different and everyone has a different way they get reached, so I'm a lot slower to call for this guy or that guy sitting after various issues. That, of course, only applies if the player is giving effort. If they're loafing, I think they always sit, but that's not the case with Witt.
I had looked the other day at the Fangraphs leaderboards so I knew that the offense was 14th in baseball by fWAR in May, but I was quite surprised to see that the pitching was also middle of the pack (17th in baseball), so you would've maybe expected them to have a better record than 10-17 over that span. Something that also might support your point about them being in most games is that their Pythag W/L is 4 games better than their actual record, though that's not necessarily a guarantee that things will level out; regardless a -75 run differential is bad but not what you'd expect for an 18-41 team. No real point there, just some additional things to think about.
Absolutely. They're kind of an enigma. And they were just -6 in May, but seven games under. Some of it is bad timing on bad pitching/bad hitting, but some of it could even out over time. I don't know. I just don't watch this team and think "wow, they're one of the 10 worst teams ever." And yet, that's what they're pacing for.
oof, thought we might win this one many innings ago
Enjoyed the article, thank you for articulating much of what I have been thinking: "I don’t quite understand anything about them. If you look one way, you think they’ve got some pieces. If you look another way, it feels like there’s no chance they can ever compete."
And were you kinda positive about Lyles?? Ha either way I am happy to see him doing ok, happy to see Singer maybe improving, and happily surprised to see Lynch looking ok
Why few sweeps and so weirdly not looking awful considering record? I have to wonder if that is a coaching thing. Maybe just a youth optimism thing, but have to think they are getting some support from coaching. They don't seem to give-up (but I am starting to get concerned about MJ even though I am a big fan)
To end on a positive note, How about that Pratto?
Of course I was positive about Lyles! He pitched well! I don't like the signing, but gotta call a spade a spade.
I do think the leadership of this team, both in the coaching staff and on the roster has been excellent to keep them competing. At some point, they have to do more than compete, but it's a good base.
And yeah, Pratto has been awesome. I tweeted last night that we need to be talking much more about him. He's a great example of a player making adjustments and seeing them pay dividends.
Looks like Tuesdays line-up and defensive alignment might be the best all year.
Feel that there should have been a lot more improvement since last year, seeing deja vu. Injuries haven’t helped, and yes there is more motivation than last year, it shows. Not running enough, swinging at too many ball 4’s, Melendez still doesn’t look comfortable in the outfield, Lopez’s bat is waste, won’t miss Bradley when Isbel returns. Everything is just too inconsistent, both offensively and defensively, no consistent line-up. Consistency builds quality, dependability, improvement, passion, reliability and success.