Weekend in Review: A Demotion, Another Rough Weekend and More

It could have been worse this weekend, but there's not a whole lot that could have gone worse on the road trip.

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That was not a week the Royals will want to remember. It wasn’t a weekend the Royals will want to remember. But the good news is that they were able to salvage the final game of the road trip and the series to avoid an even longer losing streak and to at least keep within some sort of shouting distance of .500. It’s not that they can’t go on a winning streak at some point because they can. It’s that watching them, specifically with bats in their hands, makes it kind of hard to actually envision them reeling off the sort of winning streaks they did last year.

Remember, they won seven in a row to get to 9-4. Then they won eight in a row to get to 34-19. They also put together a couple of five-game winning streaks. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. One of the marks of a good team is that they don’t let the bed stretches get overwhelming. I believe one of the exact examples I’ve used in the past is that they turn a 10-game losing streak into a 2-8 stretch. Well, the Royals are in the middle of a 2-8 stretch after one of the worst road trips they’ve had in a bit. The trick now is to figure out how to turn that one victory into a springboard, which, again, seems nearly impossible with the way the bats are going.

On the plus side, they are through their gauntlet first three and a half weeks that featured seven series and all but one was against a playoff team from last season. And the one that wasn’t was against a team that finished over .500 and was in second place as late as September 5. That’s not to say that they shouldn’t beat good teams if they want to call themselves a good team as well. It’s just to say that it’s a very difficult start to the season and treading water was acceptable, to me anyway. I had mentioned a few weeks before the season that I was really looking for 11-12, but 10-13 would be okay. Well, they’re 9-14. That doesn’t mean the season is over or anything but it does mean they now have to make up a win or two somewhere. The good news about going through this early is there’s plenty of time to make it up. But they have to start activing fast.

MJ Melendez Sent Down

Honestly, the big news of the weekend was that the Royals made a roster decision when Mark Canha was ready to come off the IL. I think when he went down, we all sort of figured that Drew Waters would be the one to go back to AAA. And when MJ Melendez homered and hit the ball hard off Max Fried, I think that was pretty well the conventional wisdom. But he didn’t follow it up with anything of value and then when he sat for the first two games of the Tigers series against right-handed starters, I think we all knew.

And, sure enough, the move was made to activate Canha and Melendez was the one sent to Omaha. It wouldn’t have been newsworthy had Waters gone down, but because it was Melendez, there were some conversations had. I’ve talked to a couple of people and I wasn’t told this directly, but I can glean some things. It almost seems like maybe it was a relief for Melendez because everything was clearly weighing on him. The Royals are making some great points too about players who have been sent down and gone on to have great success. You don’t have to look beyond Melendez’s own organization to look at Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas and more.

From Anne Rogers’ article about the move on MLB.com:

“As I shared with [Melendez], there are very few players in this world who don’t get optioned at some point,” Picollo said. “It’s certainly not the end of his career. We’d like to think it’s just the start of a new beginning. Take advantage of the opportunity to go out and play in Triple-A, play well and get back here. Here, it’s about performance. You’ve got to be able to perform.”

I think that makes sense. Picollo also touched on why they stuck with him as long as they did.

“That’s why our patience was a little bit more long-lasting with MJ, just because we believe those tools are going to turn into skill. And we still believe that they will. Just the timetable may be a little bit different.”

I think that’s fair, honestly. I’ve said this before, but of all the options in AAA and the big leagues, I’m not sure there’s a player who can become a middle of the order big league bat who isn’t Melendez. Now some guys are starting to get closer in AA, so that’s going to change shortly, but the best bet for what they need is Melendez. I sort of get why they gave him the chance to prove that the new approach was going to work or not work.

I’ve heard more than a couple of thoughts on this. My initial reaction is that this sort of feels like it’s more about Melendez than anyone else because of the fact that he does have the tools to be an impact bat. Get him right in AAA and get him back at some point. I wouldn’t be surprised if he rakes down there and comes back in June or July and the Royals tout it as a trade deadline acquisition. My eyes will roll so far back in my head, I may not be able to recover, but I think that’s possible.

I’ve also heard that they believe the Royals are just so frustrated that we don’t ever see him in the big leagues again. As is almost always the case, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle of that. My guess is we do see him again. Waters isn’t an answer. I’m not sure John Rave or Joey Wiemer or Nick Loftin or Tyler Gentry are either. Eventually, they’re going to come back to the guy who has had big league success at points. That’s what I think anyway. For now, though, they’ve made a clear declaration. There are a few more guys who might need that declaration soon.

The Games

Friday - Tigers 7, Royals 3

It didn’t seem like Cole Ragans had his best early, but he was still getting strikeouts, which was nice to see. He ended the night with eight strikeouts over four innings and he wasn’t getting hit terribly hard or anything, but he just wasn’t quite right. That will happen, and I’m not worried, but when the offense isn’t hitting, the ace needs to be perfect. It also didn’t help that he threw at least three pitches that were called balls that should have been called strikes while his opponent, Jackson Jobe, seemed to be getting a bigger zone. But that didn’t impact anything; it was just another example of some awful strike zones this series.

The offense actually came out strong against Jobe. Bobby Witt Jr. doubled and then Pasquantino doubled him in. It was a pretty quick and relatively easy run scored to get on the board. It’s happened so many times during this stretch, though, where they’ll get on the board early and then you just never hear from the offense again. Sure they had some runners on, but they didn’t get a runner to third again until the sixth and that runner didn’t score.

They did load the bases in the eighth. It started with a Salvador Perez double and then Maikel Garcia and Cavan Biggio walked, but Waters was called out on strikes and Kyle Isbel popped up to end that threat. They were down 7-1 after eight. They did put a threat together in the ninth with one out. Witt singled and moved to second on defensive indifference and Pasquantino drove him in again with a single. Then Perez reached on catcher’s interference, Garcia walked and Massey walked with the bases loaded to put the Royals within four with the bases loaded. Okay, that’s kind of interesting. Biggio struck out and Waters lined out to right and that was that.

Back to Ragans, you could tell he wasn’t quite right because he just wasn’t getting the swing and miss he usually does. His changeup, which had a 65.7 percent whiff rate coming in only ended up with a 36.3 percent whiff rate. That’s still a big number, but it was just clear early that he wasn’t “on.” I’m surprised the Tigers got to him like they did. At times, I wondered a bit if this was an example of a bad offense impacting a pitcher because he felt like he had to be too fine, but he also seemed to really struggle with the mound all game, which does happen.

The scare came late when a line drive hit off Lucas Erceg’s foot and bounced high in the air. He tried to get up, but couldn’t and ended up having to be helped off the field. The Royals seem to have averted disaster with him on that with a clean x-ray, but until he gets back on the mound, I’m going to be concerned. He didn’t pitch in either of the final two games of the series.

Saturday - Tigers 3, Royals 1

All it takes is one mistake when the offense can’t score runs. Seth Lugo was really pretty good in this one. You can’t argue with the line - 6.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 5 K, 2 BB. He put up zeroes in six of the seven innings in which he pitched. But unfortunately, he needed seven of seven to have a chance in this one because the offense couldn’t do much of anything against Casey Mize, who has revived his career early this season.

I didn’t think Lugo was great or anything before the fifth inning, but I did think it was about as good as he’s looked in a bit of an uneven start to the season. His control was better than it had been and his command was too. He threw 10 recorded pitches, which I think is the first time he’s cracked double digits, so that’s something interesting.

The lone hiccup came in the fifth and it started pretty innocuously with a lineout to right. Javy Baez singled to left, but Ryan Kreidler struck out swinging, so there’s a man on first and two outs. Kerry Carpenter had a phenomenal at bat. He did a great job of spoling an out pitch for a foul ball and then just serving a ball into left field for a hit to keep the inning alive for Spencer Torkelson. On the fifth pitch, Lugo threw his worst pitch of the night.

I don’t believe in Torkelson long-term. I think he’s a very talented hitter, as most big leaguers are, and he’s in the middle of a great stretch that the Tigers should be very happy about. But you can’t leave that pitch there to just about anyone. Well, I guess technically you could leave it there to him at home because that’s just a flyout at Kauffman Stadium, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a big mistake. It was 3-0 Tigers and anyone in the world knew the game was over at that point.

The Royals did get a run back in the seventh.

Just in the interest of fairness, that’s also not a home run at home, but Fermin has looked better with the bat. He went into a deep freeze the last couple of months last year and looked a little tepid with the bat to start this year too. He did go 0 for 4 on Sunday with a couple of strikeouts, but since he was 0 for 10 to start the year, he’s hitting .273/.333/.409. I’d be a little hesitant to assume he can maintain that with regular playing time, but they may have to try it soon.

The Royals weren’t without their chances after the home run. In the eighth, Jonathan India doubled to lead off the inning. With one out, Pasquantino hit a line drive right to second and India was almost doubled off, but the throw ended up rattling around in left field. India was deked and was literally laying on second base after diving back as the Tigers took six full seconds to go get the ball. Vance Wilson was jumping up and down and screaming, but India didn’t get up and advance. I think he’d have at least had a chance to score if he saw it immediately and definitely should have been on third. Who knows what happens if he moves up?

They had two on and two outs in the ninth after a Drew Waters walk and Fermin single, but Isbel ended it with another popup. Six in a row in the books.

Sunday - Royals 4, Tigers 3

Finally a score with the Royals in the first position. If you told me the Royals were going to win one game this week and it would be against Skubal, I’d have called you a liar. But you’d have been right. I thought the approach against him was really interesting. I’m not going to jump up and down and get excited that they went the other way like you’ll hear on the broadcast, but I do think that maybe just getting back to some basics is a good thing.

The other thing is I recall a conversation from long ago that I’ve relayed before about facing an ace when the offense is struggling. The idea is that when you’re struggling, you start to press. But sometimes facing an ace can do two things. For one, you know you can’t press against him because it’s going to end poorly. And two, the next pitcher you see can’t be nearly as tough. Well, Skubal is a legitimate ace, so that part was in place. And I thought the Royals did a nice job against him. Sure they did some chasing and they whiffed some, but they generally got to him. He’s now made 51 starts since coming back in 2023 and he’s allowed two more hits than innings pitched in five of them. This was the fifth. It’s not a normal stat, but I wanted to point out how rare it is to get that many hits against him.

The Royals used a lineup of eight righties and one lefty (Pasquantino), and here’s the spray chart:

You can see four balls to the left of second. Three of them are Salvador Perez because apparently he’s just going to yank the ball until he’s out of the slump. But the rest are going the other way or up the middle. It’s a really interesting look to me. And it worked in the second when they got to him. Garcia singled to right. Hunter Renfroe singled to right. Pasquantino singled to center to drive in a run. And Waters singled to center to drive in the second. Two runs on four hits against one of the best by one of the worst offenses this year. That’s impressive.

It looked like it might hold up with the way Michael Wacha was pitching, but this goes back to having to be perfect with this offense. He gave up a similar inning in the fifth getting dinged by four singles to give up two runs. And we were tied. I'll admit this because it’s a safe space. I felt like the game was over at that point because the Royals certainly weren’t going to score again. And then when the Tigers scored again in the seventh after a weird grounder to first that probably wasn’t anyone’s fault, but looked bad, I thought it was really over. I was most upset for Daniel Lynch IV, who saw his scoreless streak end.

But give the Royals credit. The Tigers opened the door for them with an error that allowed Witt to advance to second to second. And a one-out Canha single got Witt home to tie the game. It wasn’t pretty, but it doesn’t always have to be pretty. The key for extra innings, though, was that Carlos Estevez got through the bottom of the ninth to send the game to extra innings on just seven pitches, which allowed him to come back for the 10th.

The Royals had scored in the most struggling offense way in the top of the 10th. A grounder to the right side moved the Manfred Man to third and then a Witt sacrifice fly scored him to make it 4-3. The bottom of the 10th was dramatic because the tying run was on second to start the frame, but Estevez was great. He got a popup and then a foul ball flyout that moved the runner to third. Where I was lost a bit is that he intentionally walked Riley Greene to put the potential winning run on base. I don’t care about the matchup. I didn’t love that. But it worked because Dillon Dingler popped up to end the game end the agony of the losing streak. Phew.

Player of the Week

I really wish there was more to put in this space, but there isn’t even really a second candidate. It’s Witt, and honestly, he had a nice week, but it was nothing special. He hit .310/.323/.517 with three doubles and a homer. Estevez could probably get some honorable mention for the work he did yesterday, but three innings isn’t really enough here, unfortunately.

The Week Ahead

The Royals get their first off day since April 3, which is kind of crazy given how many off days they usually get in April and how they even added off days in the last CBA. Still, they could use it, and nice to have a win preceding it. Even nicer to get to come home and welcome in the worst team in baseball, the Coloardo Rockies. They did win the second game of their doubleheader yesterday and improved to 4-17. They are 1-11 on the road and have averaged about 2.2 runs per game away from Coors Field. This is a get right series if there ever was one, which actually does provide some pressure.

The pitching matchups, as it sits now look like:

• Tuesday: LHP Kris Bubic vs. RHP Ryan Feltner

• Wednesday: RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. RHP German Marquez

• Thursday: LHP Cole Ragans vs. RHP Chase Dollander

Offensively, the Rockies have a couple of bright spots. Kyle Farmer i shaving a weirdly productive start to this season with a ton of doubles. Hunter Goodman has been pretty solid as a catcher. Mickey Moniak has been oddly good for them as well. Brenton Doyle is probably their best player, but he’s dealing with a personal issue and I’m not sure when he’ll return. You never like a player to be out for what he’s going through.

On the pitching side, Feltner has generally been a stable enough arm in their rotation when he pitches for a few years now. He made 30 starts for the first time last year and had an above average ERA+, but doesn’t do anything exceptionally well. And his walks, which dipped last year, are back up this year so far through four starts. He throws a four-seamer, changeup, slider, sweeper, sinker and curve, but is above 10 percent usage with the first four. His fastball is pretty hittable and down a full mile per hour from last year. His changeup is the tough pitch with a huge whiff rate and very little in the way of results from opponents. His slider also gets a lot of whiffs, but it’s bewen whalloped in a small sample.

Marquez came back for one start last year after having Tommy John and then was shut down again for the rest of the season. He’s given up 17 runs on 22 hits in 16.1 innings this year with 11 strikeouts and eight walks. He’s leaning four-seamer and sinker this season, which isn’t great for him. Both get hit hard. His curve has been pretty good, but he will hang it at times. And Dollander is the top prospect who got the call a couple of weeks ago. He’s allowed 15 runs on 19 hits in 14.2 innings, but he has struck out 18 and walked five. The eight home runs he’s allowed really stand out. It’s not a question of stuff. He comes at you in the upper-90s, but hitters have DESTROYED it to the tune of a .970 SLG in 38 plate appearances.

After the Rockies leave town, the Astros take their place. They are not the same team they’ve been in the past and are struggling to get it going this year after losing yesterday to fall to 10-11. Christian Walker has gotten off to a very slow start with his new team. Yordan Alvarez hasn’t been himself. Jose Altuve is now playing left field and not particularly well. They’ve got the names that can take over and get them back to where they want to be, but it’s not starting off well for them. The matchups right now look like the Royals will get Hayden Wesneski, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, so still not easy for the bats. They’ll counter with Lugo, Wacha and Bubic.

I hate to say that it’s a big week in April, but it’s kind of a big week in April. Get back on track and win even just four of six and you feel pretty good heading to Tampa and Baltimore on the next trip. But falter even more and it’s not hard to see things getting ugly fast. So, uh, yeah, big week in April.