I have to say that I keep going back and forth on Salvy with his expected stats. Watching him does not paint the picture of a bad luck hitter. But are the statistics lying? I can't imagine they are. So yeah, there's a pretty easy uptick to see there. My eyes have been wrong before.
Agree on when you watch him, it doesn't look like it's just bad luck. Lot of bad swings on balls nowhere near the plate. Know that's not new either, he just looks slower than ever, as you've said.
It also seems that a lot of the struggling hitters (which I guess is about everyone) have had a lot of half/not full swings on the outs they make. That might be my eyes lying to me; not sure if there is way to verify that with bat speed on outs made vs last season or something along those lines.
You know, I had that thought too and I'm honestly not entirely sure how to search it, but I'll put it on my list because I think that makes some sense to dig into.
I really hope they turn things around soon. Last year was such a great year. It had been ages since I'd kept up with the team on a daily basis and enjoyed what was happening. I admit that I've already started to fall into old habits of just checking a score the next day and sighing deeply when I see they lost yet again. I just keep telling myself it's early. If they hit a big skid like that in June or July, it would just be a skid and nothing more--I just have to keep telling my brain that that's all this is, too, and the pendulum will swing the other way soon enough. I hope.
I think the thing to remember is that they were 8-8 at the start of the losing streak. Is anyone losing hope at 8-8? I doubt it. I would hope not. I think your point about the timing is a good one. I say this all the time, but when the small sample is the only data you have, it feels like a big sample. They've shown how badly they can struggle offensively, but I sitll believe we'll see a stretch where they win because of their bats.
It's wild to me that for as bad as the offense has looked, the Royals are only two extra inning coin flips away from the 11-12 record that you mentioned above. I feel like that really speaks to how a small sample feels like a big sample when it's the only data you have.
Also, I shouldn't be encouraged by the Royals leaving 38 runners on base in Detroit, because that is obviously terrible! But it also means that a lot more people were getting on base than in New York or Cleveland and just weren't coming around to score. You've said on here before that last years RISP numbers were unsustainably high, which is true, but this series felt like the exact opposite to me in that they felt unsustainably low at 7 for 40. So my hope is that the numbers eventually balance out at a happy medium between last year and this year, and with that they'll start scoring enough runs for the pitching to bring home some wins.
I'm with you on all of that. One more point that I think I made on a radio spot but not on here is that if Vinnie and Salvy are actually hitting well, I think they win three more games than they've won. If they were 12-11, we'd be doing back flips.
But yeah, leaving all those guys on base means they got all those guys on base. Maybe it's nothing, but maybe it's a start.
I still think they are generally fine and am not overly concerned yet. They are still going to have a 6 game winning streak to offset this somewhere in here.
That said, I think my upper ceiling potential for this team has come down quite a bit. I just wasn’t expecting an offense this bad. They could yet, but I just don’t see them winning the division over Detroit at this point. But get to .500 first, and then the wildcards are still very much in play. No panic here yet. Some concerns, but not panic.
I think winning the division is still very possible. The question is do you think the Tigers are a 90+ win team? I think they have a lot of markers of that, but also I don't trust their bullpen, no matter how good they've been, and they have some health questions. Torkelson being for real would help quite a bit, but I think they've got a rough stretch in them too. If you think the division can be won with 88 games (and I do), an 88-win team statistically will probably have a 9-14 stretch in them at some point. I think the defense is worse than I thought and the offense is too, so I'm not sure they'll win 88 games, but theoretically, there's no reason they can't get there.
They can get there. I don’t get overly concerned with bullpens though because that’s easier to fix than offense. I still see 88 as in play. I’m thinking that’s more high end now. But still certainly doable. 82-84 wins seems more doable. But I think the Royals are still going to add pieces and get better as well as the season goes on.
Since we're talking about playoffs (right?), my bigger concern is the WC may be slipping away vis-a-vis the AL East and West. Remember how surprised everyone was last year when the AL Central sent that extra WC to the playoffs? Right now that doesn't look like it will repeat itself.
I still think the Royals have the pitching to do it (assuming HEE stay healthy), but will the hitting "wake up" before winning the division is out of reach?
I think the league as a whole is just more condensed. I could see three AL Central teams making it. I could see one. I could see four AL East teams making it. Not sure I see a world where there’s only one there, but Baltimore looks like they’ve got plenty to figure out and I don’t think the Blue Jays are all that good. In the west, the Angels offense has cooled A TON though they’re better than I expected. I don’t know. I think it’s just sort of a league where a bunch of teams are going to win between 75 and 87 games and the White Sox are going to lose 110. The Twins are interesting. Do they blow it up? If they do, things could get real bad for them too.
I remember last year Detroit was barely .500 or maybe even below .500 at the deadline. That could be the Royals this year. They certainly have the pitching for it to come together later if they can figure out the bats. Its seems like a big if at the moment with the bats being so bad. But it’s a team that would be capable.
Detroit wasn't only below .500. They sold. They traded Jack Flaherty. They shopped Skubal (they're glad they didn't move him). And then they took off and finished 34-19, which I still think is meaningless but interesting but matches the Royals start to the season.
I think JJ’s major task in the next six weeks is figuring out how many below average position players they have in their starting lineup. If it’s one or two, that could (hopefully) be addressed through a minor league call up and/or trade of prospects. If it’s 3 or 4, that means they probably won’t be making the playoffs this season or next, and they need to consider a major trade where they get back multiple young position players that can make an impact immediately or in a year or so. If it’s 5 or 6, then they need a big sell off so they can rebuild before Bobby can opt out. It’s a big decision and they need to get it right.
I think you're absolutely right. It's not the best way to evaluate a minor leaguer, but guys should get 2-3 weeks to prove they can stay in the lineup. If they can't make their case in that time, it's on to the next guy. I think there's a world where we look up in the first week of June and you feel pretty good about 1-7 in the lineup. Would it be that shocking if Vinnie, Salvy and Massey get things figured out. They all had a 102 or better wRC+ last year. India is a proven on base guy. He's not going to hit .205 all year. If he hits .240, he's on base at a .340 clip. Maikel Garcia is looking like he's just a year late to what they thought he'd be last year. I'm cautiously optimistic on him. That covers six spots in the lineup before they've even dipped into the system.
Okay, so now you have to find one guy from Waters, Gentry, Rave, Devanney, Loftin, Melendez, Rave, Wiemer, Peyton Wilson (he's destroying AA right now and needs to be in AAA), etc. Maybe Mark Canha can play a part for awhile. You get the idea.
Now, that requires four players to get going, which is easier said than done, but also three of the four have a multi-year track record. Obviously, if two get going, you need three guys. If three, you need two. But I don't think it's crazy to feel a lot better about this team without even having anyone new come in. And then you get to the deadline and make a move. It'll probably hurt. But if they get there needing a bat or two and being in it, I'd argue it's worth it.
Fingers crossed that they sweep the Rockies because I'm not convinced they're getting to four wins any other way. Until I see them start scoring runs, I'm not going to believe they can do it and the Astros are too experienced and talented to lose to a team that doesn't score. I think we saw that in the four-game road trip last fall.
That Astros team was clicking after looking worse than the current Royals to start the year, so I don’t know how much that matters. I do think they’re too good to get trounced by a bad team but I’ve watched a few of their games and they’re not impressive. But they do have talent. I also am curious if the Kauffman Stadium magic takes over for the offense a little. It’s easy to overlook it, but the cold and the wind seem like it’s done now and that took away at least six runs from the Royals against the Twins. Maybe the day off and some home cooking will help.
Actually just mentioned him in a comment, and yes, he's a guy I'm intrigued by. There are some things that we just don't know with him. He's in his third try at AA, so he needs to be in AAA like yesterday. The Royals really liked him and then he sort of flamed out, but he's back this year. He also looked really good to me in Arizona, but I didn't think much of it because I only saw him on back fields and against minor leaguers late in games. But you can't argue with those results.
Haha! I love your Manfred Mann reference, although being a child of the 60s, that's where my mind immediately ran to. LOL It took a couple of reads before I got my mind back. Nice one.
Interesting stat here on Perez with his current ISO vs expected. Hopefully this does lead to a breakout and a ripple effect.
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/hitter-xiso-underperformers-overperformers/
I have to say that I keep going back and forth on Salvy with his expected stats. Watching him does not paint the picture of a bad luck hitter. But are the statistics lying? I can't imagine they are. So yeah, there's a pretty easy uptick to see there. My eyes have been wrong before.
Agree on when you watch him, it doesn't look like it's just bad luck. Lot of bad swings on balls nowhere near the plate. Know that's not new either, he just looks slower than ever, as you've said.
It also seems that a lot of the struggling hitters (which I guess is about everyone) have had a lot of half/not full swings on the outs they make. That might be my eyes lying to me; not sure if there is way to verify that with bat speed on outs made vs last season or something along those lines.
You know, I had that thought too and I'm honestly not entirely sure how to search it, but I'll put it on my list because I think that makes some sense to dig into.
I really hope they turn things around soon. Last year was such a great year. It had been ages since I'd kept up with the team on a daily basis and enjoyed what was happening. I admit that I've already started to fall into old habits of just checking a score the next day and sighing deeply when I see they lost yet again. I just keep telling myself it's early. If they hit a big skid like that in June or July, it would just be a skid and nothing more--I just have to keep telling my brain that that's all this is, too, and the pendulum will swing the other way soon enough. I hope.
I think the thing to remember is that they were 8-8 at the start of the losing streak. Is anyone losing hope at 8-8? I doubt it. I would hope not. I think your point about the timing is a good one. I say this all the time, but when the small sample is the only data you have, it feels like a big sample. They've shown how badly they can struggle offensively, but I sitll believe we'll see a stretch where they win because of their bats.
It's wild to me that for as bad as the offense has looked, the Royals are only two extra inning coin flips away from the 11-12 record that you mentioned above. I feel like that really speaks to how a small sample feels like a big sample when it's the only data you have.
Also, I shouldn't be encouraged by the Royals leaving 38 runners on base in Detroit, because that is obviously terrible! But it also means that a lot more people were getting on base than in New York or Cleveland and just weren't coming around to score. You've said on here before that last years RISP numbers were unsustainably high, which is true, but this series felt like the exact opposite to me in that they felt unsustainably low at 7 for 40. So my hope is that the numbers eventually balance out at a happy medium between last year and this year, and with that they'll start scoring enough runs for the pitching to bring home some wins.
I'm with you on all of that. One more point that I think I made on a radio spot but not on here is that if Vinnie and Salvy are actually hitting well, I think they win three more games than they've won. If they were 12-11, we'd be doing back flips.
But yeah, leaving all those guys on base means they got all those guys on base. Maybe it's nothing, but maybe it's a start.
I still think they are generally fine and am not overly concerned yet. They are still going to have a 6 game winning streak to offset this somewhere in here.
That said, I think my upper ceiling potential for this team has come down quite a bit. I just wasn’t expecting an offense this bad. They could yet, but I just don’t see them winning the division over Detroit at this point. But get to .500 first, and then the wildcards are still very much in play. No panic here yet. Some concerns, but not panic.
I think winning the division is still very possible. The question is do you think the Tigers are a 90+ win team? I think they have a lot of markers of that, but also I don't trust their bullpen, no matter how good they've been, and they have some health questions. Torkelson being for real would help quite a bit, but I think they've got a rough stretch in them too. If you think the division can be won with 88 games (and I do), an 88-win team statistically will probably have a 9-14 stretch in them at some point. I think the defense is worse than I thought and the offense is too, so I'm not sure they'll win 88 games, but theoretically, there's no reason they can't get there.
They can get there. I don’t get overly concerned with bullpens though because that’s easier to fix than offense. I still see 88 as in play. I’m thinking that’s more high end now. But still certainly doable. 82-84 wins seems more doable. But I think the Royals are still going to add pieces and get better as well as the season goes on.
Bullpen is fixable, yes, but I still don’t love what they have. More concerning to me is the fact that nobody can seem to stay on the field for them.
Since we're talking about playoffs (right?), my bigger concern is the WC may be slipping away vis-a-vis the AL East and West. Remember how surprised everyone was last year when the AL Central sent that extra WC to the playoffs? Right now that doesn't look like it will repeat itself.
I still think the Royals have the pitching to do it (assuming HEE stay healthy), but will the hitting "wake up" before winning the division is out of reach?
I think the league as a whole is just more condensed. I could see three AL Central teams making it. I could see one. I could see four AL East teams making it. Not sure I see a world where there’s only one there, but Baltimore looks like they’ve got plenty to figure out and I don’t think the Blue Jays are all that good. In the west, the Angels offense has cooled A TON though they’re better than I expected. I don’t know. I think it’s just sort of a league where a bunch of teams are going to win between 75 and 87 games and the White Sox are going to lose 110. The Twins are interesting. Do they blow it up? If they do, things could get real bad for them too.
I remember last year Detroit was barely .500 or maybe even below .500 at the deadline. That could be the Royals this year. They certainly have the pitching for it to come together later if they can figure out the bats. Its seems like a big if at the moment with the bats being so bad. But it’s a team that would be capable.
Detroit wasn't only below .500. They sold. They traded Jack Flaherty. They shopped Skubal (they're glad they didn't move him). And then they took off and finished 34-19, which I still think is meaningless but interesting but matches the Royals start to the season.
I think JJ’s major task in the next six weeks is figuring out how many below average position players they have in their starting lineup. If it’s one or two, that could (hopefully) be addressed through a minor league call up and/or trade of prospects. If it’s 3 or 4, that means they probably won’t be making the playoffs this season or next, and they need to consider a major trade where they get back multiple young position players that can make an impact immediately or in a year or so. If it’s 5 or 6, then they need a big sell off so they can rebuild before Bobby can opt out. It’s a big decision and they need to get it right.
I think you're absolutely right. It's not the best way to evaluate a minor leaguer, but guys should get 2-3 weeks to prove they can stay in the lineup. If they can't make their case in that time, it's on to the next guy. I think there's a world where we look up in the first week of June and you feel pretty good about 1-7 in the lineup. Would it be that shocking if Vinnie, Salvy and Massey get things figured out. They all had a 102 or better wRC+ last year. India is a proven on base guy. He's not going to hit .205 all year. If he hits .240, he's on base at a .340 clip. Maikel Garcia is looking like he's just a year late to what they thought he'd be last year. I'm cautiously optimistic on him. That covers six spots in the lineup before they've even dipped into the system.
Okay, so now you have to find one guy from Waters, Gentry, Rave, Devanney, Loftin, Melendez, Rave, Wiemer, Peyton Wilson (he's destroying AA right now and needs to be in AAA), etc. Maybe Mark Canha can play a part for awhile. You get the idea.
Now, that requires four players to get going, which is easier said than done, but also three of the four have a multi-year track record. Obviously, if two get going, you need three guys. If three, you need two. But I don't think it's crazy to feel a lot better about this team without even having anyone new come in. And then you get to the deadline and make a move. It'll probably hurt. But if they get there needing a bat or two and being in it, I'd argue it's worth it.
Fingers crossed that they sweep the Rockies because I'm not convinced they're getting to four wins any other way. Until I see them start scoring runs, I'm not going to believe they can do it and the Astros are too experienced and talented to lose to a team that doesn't score. I think we saw that in the four-game road trip last fall.
That Astros team was clicking after looking worse than the current Royals to start the year, so I don’t know how much that matters. I do think they’re too good to get trounced by a bad team but I’ve watched a few of their games and they’re not impressive. But they do have talent. I also am curious if the Kauffman Stadium magic takes over for the offense a little. It’s easy to overlook it, but the cold and the wind seem like it’s done now and that took away at least six runs from the Royals against the Twins. Maybe the day off and some home cooking will help.
I’m holding out hope to say the least. Both Vinnie and Massey had positives to take from the Tigers series and I’m holding them close.
Any thoughts on Peyton Wilson? I name I know not much about, but curious if he’s a legitimate prospect?
Actually just mentioned him in a comment, and yes, he's a guy I'm intrigued by. There are some things that we just don't know with him. He's in his third try at AA, so he needs to be in AAA like yesterday. The Royals really liked him and then he sort of flamed out, but he's back this year. He also looked really good to me in Arizona, but I didn't think much of it because I only saw him on back fields and against minor leaguers late in games. But you can't argue with those results.
Haha! I love your Manfred Mann reference, although being a child of the 60s, that's where my mind immediately ran to. LOL It took a couple of reads before I got my mind back. Nice one.
Why is Renfroe still on the team?? Why don’t they DFA him & find someone else