Weekend in Review: Doing the Work, Recapping the Weekend, Looking Ahead

The Royals got swept again. What more can be said?

One of the things I try to do here on this newsletter is be balanced. If you were ever in my living room during one of the many losses by the team we follow so closely for some reason, you’d think someone else is a ghostwriter. But one thing that I recognize as someone who has watched baseball my whole life is that it’s almost never as bad as it seems. Subsequently, it’s almost never as good as it seems either. And so some days I’ll write right after a game. Other days, I know that I need to take a beat. I’ll either write a few hours later if it’s a day game. Or I’ll write the next morning after I’ve had a chance to digest what happened. This is being written Monday morning. After a whole weekend of baseball, I just had to wait a little bit longer.

Usually, after I’ve waited, I find some clarity. I think it’s funny that I’ve been noted for an optimistic tone given what people said about me a decade or so ago when I was writing about this organization. I also think I’m not especially optimistic about this team, but that just shows how bad they are. Anything good is considered optimistic. I think it’s fair to say that I’m also a bit of a contrarian. If someone says they’re good, I’ll tell you how bad they are. But if someone says they’re bad, I’ll find a way to show that it’s not as bad as it looks (because again, it usually really isn’t). After this weekend, man, even waiting until Monday morning hasn’t helped my feeling about this team. It feels hopeless right now.

Look, I know it’s not. That’s not to say it’s good by any stretch. But it’s not. There are obviously huge differences in terms of what those teams had, but the 2021 Diamondbacks lost 110 games. They’re 54-46 today. The 2021 Orioles also lost 110 games. They have the best record in the American League today. Again, it’s different because every situation is different, but things looked awfully bleak for those two organizations even when much better times were obviously (now) on the horizon.

This isn’t to say that the Royals are just two years away from competing for the postseason or even having the best record in the league. It’s to say that if you had asked the fans of those two teams two years ago if they’d be where they are today, they’d have laughed in your face just as you’d laugh in theirs today as a Royals fan. If I was a betting man (oh wait, I am), I’d say the laugh of the Royals fan is right, but I’m also not arrogant enough to guarantee that.

Putting the Work In

I don’t know that I have a major statistical point here like I often do. I don’t have any updates on trades. I just did that on Friday. But one thing I do appreciate is that, for the most part, I believe the struggling Royals aren’t just sitting around with their fingers knuckle-deep in their noses hoping and praying for something to get better. They are working and something that I’ve realized over the years is that I’m not going to bury a player who is working hard.

I’ll call out bad play. Nick Pratto has very clearly worked on some things. Prior to the break, he was swinging at just 41 percent of pitches. It wasn’t working. Sure he was only swinging at 26.5 percent of pitches outside the zone, but it wasn’t working. He’s swinging (and chasing) a lot more since the break. It’s still not working. I’m not sure Pratto is a long-term big leaguer. But I’m not going to crush the guy other than saying that, in a year of evaluation, no matter what Pratto does, it doesn’t seem to work. But he’s trying to make adjustments and I appreciate that.

I appreciate that Michael Massey has made an effort to do different things to try to find success. We know that he made a big effort with his plate discipline. And he’s hit .237/.312/.428 since May 1. That’s not great, but it’s good for a 101 wRC+. He’s walked at a reasonable rate. He’s struck out reasonably. He was boosted some by Yankee Stadium this weekend, but he’s hit for a little power. He’s also a good defender at second base. I’m not saying he’s someone you write in pen to the 2024 and beyond lineup, but I appreciate the effort and the results that have come with it.

The same is true of Bobby Witt Jr. But he’s obviously put in the work defensively and he’s putting together better at bats. He had a 36.3 percent chase rate in April and May. It’s 33.8 percent since. And the results are showing up. He’s slumping now, but he’s hit .285/.326/.459 in that time. I appreciate that. And I don’t say that just to say that if you work hard, you get a pass. No, but I think it’s a different conversation. These are players who I unequivocally know are giving a big effort to get better, whether it’s working or not and I’m going to support that in my writing.

And if I haven’t said a player here is working hard, it doesn’t mean I don’t think they are. It might, but it’s not an exact science, so there’s no sense in trying to suss it out. But one more who I’m interested in is someone who I’ve said a few times should be in AAA instead of the big leagues and that’s MJ Melendez. The guy has had a rough year after showing promise in 2022, at least offensively. He was hitting .206/.289/.333 heading into the break. That’s a 70 wRC+ with bad defense. That player is unplayable. The Royals could have and probably should have sent him down.

But they didn’t. From all accounts, he spent the break working hard to figure things out. Let me throw some of his “swing decision” numbers at you from before the break:

• 31.3% chase rate

• 47.7% swing rate

• 66.2% contact rate

• 16.1% swinging strike rate

And now since:

• 32.9% chase rate

• 55.6% swing rate

• 69.6% contact rate

• 16.9% swinging strike rate

It’s not an exact science. Some stats here are worse, some better. I tend to think the chase and swinging strike rate are basically the same because it’s a small sample, but he’s also hit .297/.333/.486 since the break with an average exit velocity of a ridiculous 96.8 MPH and a reasonable 23.1 percent strikeout rate. The expected numbers are a bit worse on average and OBP and the slugging percentage is about 40 points higher, so the OPS is roughly a wash. I don’t know if it’ll stick. I tend to think that if you’re swinging that much and subsequently missing that much, it won’t work. I also think if you’re only walking 2.6 percent of the time, it won’t work. But I do think that a guy working deserves the praise when the results are there. I’d like to see if the rest can catch up to the results.

I just can’t watch a team this bad and not find some ability to root for the guys trying to work their way out of it. I know that people will likely hate this entire section. It’s not about working hard, it’s about winning and all that. And I completely agree. But they’re not winning. They stink out loud at basically all facets of the game. For my sanity, and yours, I like to find the nuggets that are worth celebrating. We can spend the offseason talking about how bad this guy is or that guy is.

The Weekend’s Games

As I said last week, I’m not going to necessarily look at this through the lens of each individual game, but rather through some interesting things that happened because the wins and losses are beyond irrelevant at this point. So what’s important to this team? It’s the young/inexperienced pitching. It’s the young bats. And, well, that’s about it. I don’t care what Salvador Perez does. I just don’t. I mean I love it when he gets hot and helps the team, but he is who he is. I don’t care what Jordan Lyles does outside of if he can help to boost his trade value any. I don’t care if Taylor Clarke throws well.

Alec Marsh Was a Mixed Bag

But I do care when Alec Marsh takes the mound. He started the series on Friday and the line was not good. 5.1 innings with five runs and five hits allowed and just three strikeouts is not something he’s going to write about in his diary. I mentioned this on Twitter, but I wonder some how to evaluate this outing. On one hand, he didn’t look especially good to me. His command wasn’t nearly what it was in his last start, but that’s to be expected because he was so good there. But he still had 14 whiffs, which was just one off what he’d done in his last two starts.

His slider was, once again, outstanding. He got 22 swings and nine whiffs on it, but even when the Yankees made contact, they weren’t doing much with it. They put five balls in play and just one was hard hit. Unfortunately it was one of the home runs he allowed, but the slider absolutely plays at the big league level. I also thought his curve was really good. He had three whiffs on eight swings. They put four in play and only hit one hard. But it was a home run. You seeing a pattern here?

So what do you say about this? On the surface, it was a bad outing. In the box score, it was a bad outing. By the eye test, it wasn’t a good outing (I don’t know that I’d say he looked bad, but as I said, he didn’t look good). But he gave up two home runs that would have been out in just three out of 30 parks. Does an outing where Marsh didn’t look great, got 14 whiffs and ended up giving up one run over five innings change anything? Because that’s what would have happened had this game been played at Kauffman Stadium. It wasn’t, of course, so it didn’t happen that way. I truly don’t know the answer to that question. I’m not saying it does.

Maybe I’d find myself looking at the outing and thinking that he was fortunate the game wasn’t played in Yankee Stadium. I don’t know. But basically what I’m looking for from Marsh is to continue looking like he can be a big league pitcher and hopefully a starter. I don’t think I came away from Friday’s outing with any changes one way or another. He’ll get a shot against Cleveland on Wednesday afternoon. That’s going to be an interesting one for him. They don’t strike out and they don’t swing and miss. But they also don’t homer. So I think it’ll be a test that tells us a little more we haven’t learned yet about Marsh.

Brady Singer Looked Outstanding…Eventually

What an ugly start for Singer. He walked the first batter and gave up a rocket infield single to the second. He got a double play on another hard hit ball, but then gave up the game’s first run on a line drive from Giancarlo Stanton. I didn’t notice it at the time, but I should have. He wasn’t locating his sinker at all, but his slider was kind of perfect to start.

You can see four sinkers in a very bad spot and the rest in spots that weren’t going to get anything done for him. That’s sort of the story of his season. His slider has been off and on fine, but his sinker is just not doing what it did last season for him to get so many called strikes and weak contact.

Things were better in the second and the results were there at least, but he just couldn’t get anyone to really chase much. The lineup turned over with one out in the third and Singer turned into a different pitcher. Here’s what the second time through looked like for him:

Strikeout
Sacrifice Fly
Strikeout
Lineout
Strikeout
Strikeout
Strikeout
Strikeout
Strikeout

Yep, that’s five in a row and seven of the nine hitters the second time through the order. He was doing it with great command and his slider was doing a lot of work. He threw 44 pitches that second time through and that included 23 sliders, 17 sinkers and four changeups. Maybe he’s figured out that he simply has to throw more sliders to get his sinker to work better. Whatever he did, it worked for him. He basically matched Gerrit Cole. Cole gave up two runs on five hits in 6.1 innings with 10 strikeouts and a walk. Singer gave up two runs on five hits in 6 innings with nine strikeouts and a walk. That will work.

I’m not saying Singer is fixed and magically back, but I was very pleased with what I saw from him. Since his ERA hit its apex on May 6 after a bad start against Oakland, Singer has made 13 starts, averaged a little more than 17 outs per start and has a 4.08 ERA over 75 innings. That comes with a 3.67 FIP. The strikeouts are down from last year. The walks are up but still manageable at 7.4 percent in that time.

What if this is just who Singer is? He has the ability to look very good for stretches. He has the ability to look very bad for stretches. But ultimately, he’s an average-or-so pitcher who has a place in a big league rotation but doesn’t deserve a long-term deal. Look, the Royals need a guy like that. Who else do they have to take the ball every fifth day and generally be fine?

I’m not thrilled with his unwillingness to throw whatever third pitch he wants (goes back to the guys putting in the work), but maybe his second half last year put expectations on him that he couldn’t fulfill and we need to understand that he’s fine. My thoughts are that the organization would be wise to trade him on one of his upswings, and that may not be this deadline, but if he finishes the year strong, I’d absolutely shop him in the winter.

Atrocious Baserunning

I am generally of the belief that the Royals coaching staff as a whole deserves a bit of a pass for just about everything. I question if they can stick with Alec Zumwalt as hitting coach after what the young hitters have done this year and I wonder a little if Matt Quatraro needs to get a little more Mike Matheny in him in terms of how he runs the team because of some mental mistakes. But generally, I don’t know that you can evaluate the coaching staff much on the whole of this team. Individuals, sure, but overall, there are so many roadblocks for them.

You’d be surprised to know this, but on the whole, the baserunning for the 2023 Royals has been solid. By Fangraphs metrics, they’re above average and rank middle of the pack at 13th. Noted baserunning savants, the Cleveland Guardians, rank 12th. The Royals are 12th in taking the extra base too. You’d be surprised to know that they don’t have the most outs on the bases either. They have 30, which does rank as 10th-most, but they’re 23 behind the Reds at the top and 11 behind the Guardians in second. There must be something in the Ohio water.

I think the point is that they’re aggressive (and they should be). They have the fifth-most outs at third, but actually are tied for the 12th-fewest outs at the plate. I’m fine with a team without a ton of power being aggressive. They’re going to get thrown out sometimes, but they need to be. My point is that it isn’t a season-long issue like many believe. But man was it bad this weekend.

Friday was probably the most egregious. It started in the fifth inning. Pratto had singled to start the inning and then Kyle Isbel hit a ball into the right field corner. As Pratto was cruising into third, Stanton was kicking the ball. Now, I haven’t seen what Vance Wilson was doing, but even if he had the stop sign up, you can still go hard into the base and put on the brakes. Pratto did not do that. He had already slowed down when the ball was being kicked around, so he couldn’t score. Then, to add to the issues, Maikel Garcia hit a ground ball to an infield that was back and Pratto froze. You could tell Garcia was annoyed by it. The run didn’t score.

And in the ninth, Drew Waters singled to start the inning and ended up stealing second on a play that the Yankees challenged but lost on. With two outs, Witt hit a ball to the hole between short and third. Anthony Volpe fielded what looked like it’d be an infield hit for Witt, but he threw to third. Waters was originally ruled safe, but the Yankees asked the umpires to challenge and they did and he was ruled out to end the game. Putting aside the fact that the Yankees lost their challenge and then still were able to challenge, I have some questions. It didn’t look like Waters got a bad jump, but it did look like his secondary lead was non-existent. I don’t know. I’m not sure he made a bad play there. Maybe the Yankees just made a good one, but those two examples in a one-run loss look bad.

On Saturday, Witt made the second-worst baserunning decision he’s made all year. He was slumping and put down a bunt to get a hit. I actually love that. DJ LeMahieu swatted the ball as it went foul, but the umpire ruled (incorrectly, in my opinion) that the ball was actually fair. The ball didn’t get too far away, but Witt saw the Yankees arguing and saw a chance to get to second. Only he didn’t get to second because Cole was able to pick the ball up and throw a strike to second to get him.

Look, I get the idea. He saw the Yankees arguing and thought he could steal a second base on that bunt. But given how casually Cole picked that ball up and fired it to second, it obviously wasn’t correct. Again, there’s credit to the Yankees on that play, but that was unnecessary, especially for someone with his speed where he could have gotten to second on a steal anyway. It was a 2-1 game at that point with the middle of the order due up. Just why?

Sunday wasn’t as horrific on the decisions, but Garcia got picked off in the third and Witt got caught stealing in the sixth ahead of a Melendez double and Massey home run. It just wasn’t a good weekend on the bases for a team that more and more looks like it might be pressing (and they probably need to be). That needs to get cleaned up.

The Week Ahead

I mentioned the Guardians are the next start for Marsh and that’s because it’s where the Royals head starting this evening. They’ll play two at 6:10 central and then at 12:10 central on Wednesday afternoon before getting an off day we all need on Thursday. The pitching matchups this week are:

Tonight: Ryan Yarbrough vs. Logan Allen

Tuesday: Zack Greinke vs. Aaron Civale

Wednesday: Alec Marsh vs. TBD (I’d guess Gavin Williams, but not sure)

I really struggle with caring about games when guys like Yarbrough or Greinke pitch. The Royals are a combined 7-35 when those two or Jordan Lyles pitch. It’s not that they’re juggernauts when it’s not those veterans, it’s that they’re truly horrific when it is. I just don’t care what those pitchers do, unless they do something historically great. The Royals saw Allen last month when the Guardians were in town and they didn’t get ar un off him in 3.2 innings, but they forced him to throw 98 pitches, which is crazy. Civale has a 3.50 career ERA against the Royals, but went seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts and no walks last month against them. He hasn’t really struggled against KC since 2021. And Williams got hit a bit last time against KC, giving up eight hits in 5.2 innings. He did get the win, but didn’t pitch terribly well.

After that, the Royals will come home for their final series of the year against the Twins, which is a welcome sight with the way the Twins have handled the Royals. I wonder a little if they’ll bring Cole Ragans back for that series with Daniel Lynch on the IL. That would be a welcome sight because otherwise, we’re looking at a weekend of Singer, Lyles and Yarbrough, which isn’t what anyone needs. The Twins, right now, have it set up for Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda to pitch. I’m convinced the Twins could throw out Brad Radke, Scott Aldred and Frankie Rodriguez and they could handle the Royals, but I guess we’ll see how it goes!