42 Comments

I’ve come to the conclusion Singer is what he is Lesky. I feel stupid I thought…maybe…after his first two starts back but he’s the same pitcher now he was before being sent down. Average, which is useful but he still hasn’t really changed except maybe throwing 5% more of a third pitch instead of not at all.

Anyway, what I wanted to get your thoughts on is that I watched a bit of the Braves/Dodgers game last night. I keep coming back to the question of if the talent is really there…..or B. If the talent is really there but you can’t get it out of them…is the talent still there? I watched a 23 year old Strider absolutely dominate the Dodgers last night. A guy that was drafted in 2020…and barely made the top 100 list last year. I totally am admitting I’m just catching games here or there because I quit paying for the MLB tv subscription with the royals this year until DM gets fired. So it could very well just be a one game situation. I know they royals have some talented players, Witt Jr, Salvy, Melendez, but I sometimes wonder when you watch one team all the time if we lose sight of the talent other teams have. I’ve seen Ashby, Gore, and now Strider dominate (and i totally get Singer and Lynch HAVE dominated a game or two) but I’m immediately struck by the fact that they are younger or just as young as our guys and better. I still can’t figure this season out frankly. The Royals aren’t as bad as the A’s, who bless there hearts, are trying to lose. So do the Royals only have as much talent as the A’s? It can’t be when I look at the lineup….or have we just seen too much of our guys that our perception is off? Not sure what to believe anymore except that I don’t believe DM. Lol

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Just re-read…I don’t me “you” as in you specifically on the talent level. Still thinking if Montas, Mahle, or Castillo, is still available…just pay what it takes and sign them to an extension because they will be the best pitcher we have for the next few years.

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I would 100% make a trade for a pitcher to head a rotation, so I'm with you there. The one thing I'd argue about is what you were saying about seeing guys succeed elsewhere that you don't see here. You kind of touched on this, but I think being so close to a team has its advantages and its disadvantages. For one, like you said, you only see a game here or there for other teams. Ashby has dominated at times for the Brewers. He has a 4.25 ERA and a 10.7 percent walk rate. Would we take that on the Royals? Absolutely. But it's not like he's setting the world on fire. Gore was a guy who was almost a non-prospect before reemerging this year. He has an 11.1 percent walk rate. I'd take him too over just about everyone they have, but he has his issues. Strider has looked great, and has always been able to get the strikeout. I'm curious to see how he fares in the second half.

This isn't to defend the Royals in any way. They're broken, at least in terms of pitching development. I think they actually do a pretty solid job in the minors, but my theory remains that the big leagues are more of a finishing school for pitchers than hitters and the people in charge at the big league level are incapable of getting these pitchers over that final hump. It's why you see the talent flash occasionally but not regularly. If they could develop pitchers like the Brewers and then have them finish their development in the majors, I'd be over the moon. But, and I apologize if I'm putting a spin on this that you don't agree with, I think you're seeing things through very jaded glasses. I get it. I see them too. I have to snap myself out of it. But this organization has legitimate talent. Scouts much smarter and savvier than me see it. I trust that.

Do I have faith they'll make the right moves to help get the most out of it? Not at all. But there is absolutely talent there.

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Around the time the "Royals fans are done" pieces were published earlier this year, you should've seen some of the quote tweets and replies from fans of other teams. White Sox, Tigers and Mariners fans came out of the woodwork to express their disbelief that Royals fans could possibly be so upset because of their own situations.

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Easy to feel like the grass is greener. And it is with a lot of teams. But outside opinions of the Royals are WAY better than what most of us see. The general consensus of what I hear is that they need to fix the coaching issues. And that’s scary because what if they don’t? But people really like the collection of talent at least.

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See good thing you guys are defending the royals because I’m freely admitting I’m looking at it with jaded glasses. Lol. Like I said, I’m just catching a game here or there anymore it just so happens to be a young kid throwing bullets the games I’ve seen lately that does nothing but cause irritation on my part. :) I still am trying to figure out how these guys are this bad in all categories. I KNOW some of it is coaching….but there has to be another piece to this that hasn’t been figured out yet to make up the difference from 100 losses to 81 losses. And up until this last week they have been pretty healthy. I need to stop trying to figure it out and just accept it is what it is at this point.

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I wouldn’t say they’ve been terribly healthy. They lost Mondesi for the year, and whether or not you think he matters, he was the starting shortstop. Salvy missed time earlier. Greinke missed almost a month. Olivares missed a month and a half. The only main relievers from the Opening Day roster who have avoided the IL are Barlow, Coleman, Clarke and Collin Snider, I think.

But put yourself in the shoes of, say, a Tigers fan. Casey Mize is out until next year. Matt Manning has missed a ton of time. They’ve has a couple guys come up and do okay, but other than Skubal, their young pitching has been sort of a mess too for different reasons. So they tune in and see Heasley go seven shutout against the Orioles and think, “hell, why can’t we get that from MY guy?”

I think the Royals examples are fewer than other teams, sure, but when you watch a team regularly, it’s easy to get hung up on the bad ones. But also, outside of Greinke, every single starter on this team is 26 or younger. So while the Padres may get a great start from Gore, it’s another five days before a young pitcher can disappoint them. For the Royals, three days out five, you’re watching a guy with the same experience of Gore. So if one succeeds and two fail, it’s easier to remember the two.

Again, I don’t say this as someone who is trying to say the Royals are doing things right. They obviously aren’t. But comparing to other teams lends itself to a skewed view.

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I only watched the third game, but it was definitely winnable. This team doesn't remind me of our past at all. These batters don't seem to have any kind of pitch recognition, and none of the pitchers can finish an inning or even a batter. If I see another hitter take a fastball down the middle with two strikes, I might stop watching. I stopped last year in June. Bobby Witt and M.J. Melendez are two reasons I keep watching. Jonathan Heasley has started to intrigue me as well. I think I will wear my Greinke jersey to the game Wednesday, my first of the season( thanks Joe).

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For what it's worth, the hitters are 8th in the AL in walks (216). I'm seeing better plate appearances across the board.

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Yeah, was going to mention what Kevin did below, but the Royals are 7th in the AL in walk rate. They also have the seventh fewest called third strikes in baseball on fastballs over the heart of the plate. They actually have the fourth fewest called strikes in baseball on fastballs in general.

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I think it just stands out to me when it happens. I hear that the best hitting philosophy is to look fastball and adjust to breaking or off speed pitches. This past week, both Dozier and Pratto watched very hittable fastballs go by for strike three with two outs and runners in scoring position.

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I like your thoughts on the trades mentioned. Benintendi to the Phillies makes a lot of sense. Santana to the Mariners would be a dream come true as it would unblock one or two great prospects. The trouble is, the Royals are probably the least transactional team in baseball. They make a mess of their roster and just sit with it without trying to improve or correct their mistakes. Unless someone aggressively tries to get Santana from them, I'm pretty sure he will block Vinnie and/or Nick in Omaha all year long. Then he will probably retire, but who is to say Dayton/JJ won't sign another prospect blocker for next year. It gets so old to see the same patterns over and over. Sherman must be fine with all this, so it won't change.

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The Royals have the 11th youngest offense and 4th youngest pitching staff in baseball. I understand the frustration that they haven't called up *everyone*, but they've provided regular playing time to several of their own prospects this year.

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If Agee keeps getting to these first, I'm going to have to pay him. The Royals are absolutely terribly non-transactional, but they are 100% shopping Santana. You can believe me or not, but they are. You can argue if they should have even started the year with him and I don't think I would have, to be honest, but they did and now they're in a situation where their patience might actually pay off to move him.

And I've written this before, but can we quit with the Sherman stuff? I may have started it and I was way wrong about it the more I thought about it. He's been the owner for 233 games. The first year he owned the team was 2020. Trying to make evaluations on that year would have been a fool's errand. Last year, they were terrible in the first half, but finished 38-35 against a pretty good schedule with the young pitching leading the way. The direction looked okay. I'm not saying I wouldn't move on from pretty much everyone in power (though I'd like to see JJ get a shot), but at least give the guy until the end of this season to see what he is as an owner.

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Fair or not…..I feel like there is an assumption already with Sherman that he only cares about the new stadium and needs DM to help him push that through. That being the case, I feel like there is an assumption DM will be around for as long as he needs that to happen. I don’t know if that is true or not but that’s very much seems to be the thought process.

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It’s probably all David’s fault.

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It’s absolutely my fault. I’ll own it.

But for what it’s worth, that belief is based on the idea that he should have cleaned house when he never was going to without proper evaluation.

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I’m just joking with ya. No issue with him evaluating. This offseason will be telling though.

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Oh I know you were. I was just saying where I think the disdain is from.

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I think this coming off-season will tell us a whole lot about Sherman. 95% of the time I advocate for owners to be essentially hands-off. The Royals right now are in the other 5%.

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I accept Venmo or PayPal.

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How 'bout a post-dated third-party counter check drawn on the Bank of Baghdad? 😸

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The Prince can’t afford me.

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Any theories on why MJ has such ridiculously backward lefty-righty splits? (OPS over 1.000 against lefties, well below .650 against righties.)

Random noise in a small sample size? Or is something else going on there?

And while I'm asking about guys....

In your opinion, which is a truer indication of the real Nicky Lopez? What he did at the plate last year or what he's doing this year?

I anticipated a bit of a regression this year, but I'll admit it: I expected considerably better than this... maybe something along the lines of .265/.325/.660 - which (I think) is about halfway between where he was last year and where he is now. Yes, he could still reach those numbers this year, but he's going to have to be pretty damn good for an extended time in order to do it. As skeptical as I've become as I've embarked upon my curmudgeonhood, sometimes I still have trouble taking those Royal-blue glasses off.

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Often, lefties who have reverse splits do so because they force themselves to stay on the pitch a little longer. It's also way too small of a sample to come to any real conclusions. He has seen a lot more hard stuff from lefties with righties giving up some changeups that have caused him issues.

As for Nicky, I've written quite a bit about my thoughts, so I'm not going to get too deep again, but he was fueled on a lot of good fortune last year. I thought it would be more sustainable than this, but I'm not terribly surprised he's regressed back.

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David - I'll bring up one other injury that has serious ramifications for the Royals trade possibilities: the injury to Salvy's left thumb. I could have taken a bite out of the coffee table when they had to pull him from that game.

Catcher is one of the very few positions where they can genuinely offer something of real value to other teams, and with a little luck get something of real value in return. I was already so frustrated with DM for having not already made a trade involving one of our catchers - I didn't even care who it was, but for cryin' out loud, what happened to "we need to be more transactional"!?!?!?

Now it appears that any significant trade involving a catcher will have to wait until the off-season, and I don't think Salvy will have enough time at the end of the season to reestablish any sort of trade value.

From where I sit, that's another opportunity lost to lethargic passivity - waiting for some other team's GM to call and initiate a trade.

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Salvy's injury likely had essentially zero impact on any of their trade plans. They were never trading him and they aren't trading Melendez. Those are the two with value to matter. Some teams will value Cam and likely would have made an offer, and they still might, but the return for a backup catcher isn't one to spend a lot of time lamenting the loss of. I'm a big fan of Cam, but he or Rivero just aren't moving any kind of needle on a trade. So if you're waiting for a "significant" trade of a catcher, I'd say you might want to pour yourself some water because it's going to be awhile and it was always going to be awhile.

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Trying to wrap up my posts for the day with something positive here… As hard as it is to believe, we almost seem to be taking Bobby Witt's rookie season for granted. It's worth reviewing a few numbers. Through games of June 25th he was on pace for:

90 runs

37 2B

12 3B

25 HR

86 RBI

74 XBH

23 SB

Based on the improvement he's shown just from April, I wouldn't find it a bit surprising if he exceeds every one of those numbers, assuming that he stays healthy. (Nor do those numbers indicate the large number of insanely difficult defensive plays he's executed successfully, sometimes with almost contemptuous ease.)

It's not all good news…. There are a few numbers that could use improvement: He's on pace for 160 K's and just 32 BB's, both of which are contributing to his OB% of just .286. But as the saying goes, "the arrow is pointing up" since April on virtually every BWJ offensive stat you could possibly think of.

By all appearances this kid is just starting to scratch the surface of what he can do. If you predicted right now that he'll have a 30HR - 30SB - 50 doubles season at some point in his career, I absolutely would not bet against you. (For that matter, if he keeps improving as he has been, maybe this year!)

I know it's not easy, but we should try not to let the team's overall horribleness stop us from enjoying what may turn out to be the best rookie season in team history. Guys like this just don't come along every day.

Yes, we're all frustrated with situations involving Matheny and Eldred and Santana and Pratto and Pasquantino and O'Hearn and Dayton and various others. (I'm particularly frustrated with Dayton's misleading pretense that he's going to be "more transactional" this year.) But I'm trying my damnedest not to let that get in the way of appreciating what BWJ is doing. We probably won't see another rookie season like it for a very long time, at least not from a guy in a Royals uniform.

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Well, the Royals actually did engage in a transaction today, trading Santana to Seattle for two pitchers - a 27-year-old AAA guy and a 23-year-old low-A guy.

I suspect that probably really was all they could get for him.

I'd like to think this means they'll call Pratto or Vinnie up. So why am I already having nightmares that O'Hearn starts every game at first base for the rest of the season?

Oh, I know why. Because I'm an experienced Royals fan.

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Well David, you called the Santana trade to Seattle because of the injury. You may also prove to be right about Benintendi. If the Phillies have any interest in making that happen, time is of the essence. If they snooze a couple of weeks , they may be buried. You are probably right about Sherman and only having 233 games as the owner. If he needs Dayton to spearhead the new stadium, one thing I would like to see happen is to put JJ directly under him in the reporting order, taking Dayton's approval of all JJ's decisions off the table. This is very much what Clark Hunt does with Brett and Andy. Onward with the youth movement!!!!!!!

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Okay so I may have been wrong. They called Vinnie up. We'll see if he's actually permitted to play or not.

I'm making no assumptions or predictions about how he'll perform. At 62 years old I've seen far too many minor league Babe Ruths turn into big-league Chris Getz types to make that mistake.

But it's high time they started the process of figuring out what they really have in the guy. For better or worse.

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It's interesting to me that David, both here and on the radio today, seems adamant that the Royals haven't been willing to consider trading Salvy in the past and won't be anytime soon. I'm not going to ask him about his sources, but it seems as if he's stating more than just a well-informed opinion.

I was advocating loudly that if they believed in MJ as much as they claimed, then then they should trade Perez last offseason before the work stoppage, because I feared one of three things happening very quickly: A) His performance fell off the inevitable cliff, or B) he became too injury-prone to have much value, or C) both.

Now that "C" has happened, my frustration with DM is at an all-time high.

All of the experts over at The Athletic were berating me for even thinking such heretical thoughts. Funny thing is, I haven't heard much from them on this topic lately. I wonder why that could be....

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I'm sorry, I swear I'm not trying to monopolize the comments! But this seemed worthy of note...

Eno Sarris with some interesting comments on the radio today: among Royals starters, he's most optimistic about Jonathan Heasley because of the shape of his fastball (it doesn't sink as much as hitters anticipate.) He's sorta kinda optimistic about Lynch. Not really optimistic at all about anybody else.

....he posted as he watched Bubic walk a guy with the bases loaded....and throw his 43rd pitch with nobody out in the second inning....

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I still think Bubic will be able to find his way. He has to get out of his own head. I think they might be pumping too much information into these guys. I watched the Brady Singer start in SF the other day. They said he lost the grip and that's why he walked four straight batters. It truly is amazing that something that small can destroy a game.

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