Weekend in Review: Offense Struggling Again, Another Terrible Weekend and What's Next

The April Royals reemerged this weekend in Chicago, and that was not fun to watch.

A big league season has ebbs and flows. For the best teams even, that means weekends like the one the Royals just had. The problem is that this is the second consecutive weekend in which the Royals have been swept and the fourth this season. That’s nothing new. If you replace “ebbs and flows” with peaks and valleys, bad teams have a lot more valleys than peaks, and I think we can all agree this Royals team is a bad team. I think what made this weekend so disappointing is they had just gotten through taking two of three from an underachieving but still very talented club in the Padres and hoped that there could be something to build on. I’ll, of course, get to the games, but that just didn’t happen, and it’s because a trend reemerged that had been the biggest problem in a terrible April.

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They just didn’t hit. It feels a lot less dire today than it did, say, a month ago because I think there were a lot more good plate appearances than we saw in the past. That wasn’t always the case during the season’s first month. But you worry a little bit about a team that has seen things get away from them quickly, even when the metrics might indicate it shouldn’t have. So that’s something to watch over these next few games, but it’s at least a little concerning. On the plus side, the Royals are about to get healthy with Drew Waters set to return (probably today, if I had to guess) and Nicky Lopez (though that doesn’t do much for the offense other than maybe get Hunter Dozier DFAed). But still, that leads me to the big talking point looking ahead today.

Finding Offensive Improvement

I wrote a couple of weeks ago that I think the Royals offense might actually be good. I still have faith in the offense even after a rough road trip. Good teams struggle sometimes. It happens. But I also maintain and understand that they could use a bat or two to add to the mix if they want to get their lineup as deep as possible. When they’re scoring the most runs, we see them getting things done at the bottom of the order as well as the top because when the bottom isn’t contributing, the top can only do so much.

I wrote a lot about improving the floor of this team this winter, and that still remains true. You can gain a lot of wins simply by not playing bottom-of-the-barrel players and replacing them with guys who are even below average. So who are the players who can’t be on the roster again? It’s Dozier. It’s Jackie Bradley Jr., though he was only brought in when Waters got hurt and only really started playing a lot when Isbel got hurt. You can argue maybe Nate Eaton, and I think he might be staring at a lost season already, but really it’s the veterans who simply can’t hit. That said, it’s not like the Royals have surefire starters at eight positions.

I think you feel good about where they are at the catcher spot and at first base along with probably shortstop or third because whatever you believe about Bobby Witt Jr., he’s part of the long-term plan. So there’s him, Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino. You want to feel good about Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez and Michael Massey and Waters and Isbel, but you just don’t know enough to say they simply can’t be improved upon. Some may move themselves into the category with the first three, but until they do, they haven’t. Plus, someone (and maybe multiple someones) are going to need to be moved from that group to help fill other holes.

So that means you can find people to fill in at literally any spot on the field but catcher and first base. Catchers are among the hardest to find, so that’s great. First base (and DH) is roughly the easiest to find, so maybe there’s your answer for a trade. But anywhere else, you can be looking. But here’s the problem, at least if you’re looking at free agents - the best options on the infield might be Amed Rosario, Matt Chapman and Gio Urshela. In the outfield, there’s DH Jesse Winker, Harrison Bader, Cody Bellinger, Kiké Hernandez, Joey Gallo, Teoscar Hernandez and Hunter Renfroe. Man, I don’t know that you’re supplementing a roster with any of those guys.

So then you look to the system. Maikel Garcia is obviously up and he’s shown some promise. Nick Loftin is there. Samad Taylor is there. Tyler Gentry could have a big rest of the year and be in the conversation. I’d like to see John Rave get some time in AAA this year to see if he can be in the conversation as well. So you have a bunch of internal options, which is great, but maybe the trade route is where you look.

The Rays aren’t afraid to trade guys and Brandon Lowe only has a couple years of club control after 2023. The Cardinals have a bunch of outfielders and aren’t likely to keep them all. I need to dig in some more on some trade options even beyond the big leagues, but that’s probably where this team needs to find their offensive support along with what’s already in their system. It’s a big reason why when the Royals move their bullpen pieces, players who typically don’t bring back a ton, can be so important. Maybe there’s a deal where Aroldis Chapman and Melendez are packaged to bring back a legitimate prospect or two or even a big leaguer. I don’t know if that’s even possible, it’s just an example, but that’s the sort of thing they likely need to do.

They don’t have to only supplement from outside since they do have a ton of internal options who could be an answer, but they’re likely not going to be able to get it done without bringing in someone else from somewhere else.

The Games

Okay, in the past I’ve said that I missed parts of this game or that game and then ended up writing a ton anyway. I legitimately did not watch a single pitch on Friday or Saturday, at least not live. I’ve gone back and seen a little bit so that I’m giving some value here, but I only saw yesterday’s game.

Friday - White Sox 2, Royals 0

The Royals sent 27 batters to the plate in this game, which you might be aware is the fewest possible in a full game. Thanks to a Massey single to break up the no-hitter late, they had one hit, but he was erased immediately on a double play. The story, as I understand it, was Jackson Kowar.

He walked the first two hitters, got a mound visit and then snapped into the form that I think we all had hoped we’d see from him two years ago when he was called up before he soiled himself in Anaheim. His slider was outstanding and could be a difference-maker for him if he can figure out how to throw it consistently.

That’s just nasty. I think the ship has probably sailed on Kowar starting, though I guess you’ll never say never, but that type of slider with a mid-90s fastball can be a big weapon in a bullpen. He is no lock to be even decent. He hasn’t been in AAA, so why would there be any guarantee he will be in the big leagues? But sometimes there’s a pitch like that and you think there’s a chance. It’s the sort of pitch that makes you hang on to a guy way too long.

As for the bats, again, didn’t see the game, but Zack Greinke did mention in postgame how good Kopech was. I did watch some highlights and Kopech looked nasty, but almost all pitchers do in highlights. Still, Greinke doesn’t usually mince words. If he said Kopech was really good, I’ll tend to believe that.

Saturday - White Sox 5, Royals 1

Jordan Lyles pitched.

Sunday - White Sox 5, Royals 2

There were two things that happened yesterday that I thought were noteworthy. The first was one of the same things I wrote about the last time they used Carlos Hernandez as an opener on Thursday and it’s that he has found a role. I don’t mean as an opener, though maybe that’s it, but simply pitching out of the bullpen. For the second straight time, he looked like the best pitcher in the game. He averaged 99.5 MPH and didn’t even get to his splitter. He struck out three and walked nobody.

His fastball was wicked.

His slider was nasty.

I would have been interested to see what he looked like in a third inning of work, but the whole idea is to start the bulk guy against the bottom of the order. I’ll repeat what I wrote the other day when people will undoubtedly continue to clamor for him to start. He may one day, but the reason he’s in the bullpen has nothing to do with this ability to pitch well. It’s about the time off between starts that the team believes he’s better off without. And there remains the point that sometimes players are good simply because they’re not exposed as much as others. But man is it fun to watch Hernandez pitch. For a guy with his stuff to never really get swing and miss other than in A-ball, that’s a nice feather in the cap of Brian Sweeney, Zach Bove and the rest.

And the other development is another Massey home run, but it’s not the home run that has me so excited. It’s the development and the turnaround of his plate discipline. He did give the Royals a two-run lead early with this home run.

But the pitch that led to it was very encouraging to me.

See pitch five? I fully believe that a month ago, Massey swings at the 10 times out of 10 and he didn’t just take it, but he didn’t even begin to offer at it. Pitch two and three both could have easily been swings too. He took all three. That led to a 3-2 count that gave him a pitch to drive. Unfortunately that was pretty much it for the positives other than Amir Garrett escaping a jam late.

Max Castillo has been fine in his limited action this season, but yesterday was interesting and a big reason why I don’t believe in him long-term. His slider can be very good and so can his changeup, but he didn’t get a single swing and miss until the White Sox 33rd swing against him. And, especially in today’s game where the defense is limited where they can stand, not swinging and missing leads to bad situations.

The home run he allowed to Luis Robert was a mistake. That happens. But the three runs he allowed the next inning could have been changed dramatically if he could get a swing and miss. He gave up a hit to Clint Frazier on a ball that probably should have been either up more or in more, but it was a hittable fastball.

Then he threw a 1-2 slider to Gavin Sheets that should have been down more and could have gotten a whiff but instead was a single to put runners on first and second. And then he hung a slider to Romy Gonzalez and he shot it the other way for a triple. The fourth run of the game scored on a sacrifice fly by Andrew Benintendi on a 2-2 pitch. Without ever getting one batter to miss a swing, all that contact led to three runs. I’d be very interested in seeing what Castillo could do in a short relief role, but with the injuries and depth issues, the Royals need his innings right now. But the longer he goes, the more it’s apparent that he just doesn’t have what it takes to give those kind of innings long-term.

The Week Ahead

The Royals finally get to come home, which doesn’t feel like a house of horrors after they had a 5-5 homestand last time they were in KC. After a 2-7 road trip, they might be excited to be back in their homes. Maybe a day off for Pasquantino on Sunday will get him going and maybe a return from Waters, which I really think does happen today, will give the offense a bit of a spark. They’ll welcome in the Detroit Tigers. Even with their loss yesterday to the Nationals, the Tigers are 10-7 in their last 17 games and have gotten some good pitching from two of the pitchers the Royals will see in this series - Michael Lorenzen and Eduardo Rodriguez. Alex Lange has also been brilliant out of their bullpen.

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They just can’t hit. They’re last in baseball in runs scored. They’re bottom five in home runs. They’re bottom three in ISO. They’re bottom three in wRC+. I guess my point here is that it’s a good chance for Brady Singer to continue his strong pitching and for Zack Greinke to have a good home start. I’m very curious who will start on Tuesday. It could be Daniel Lynch, but the Royals have been very clear that he’s getting at least one rehab start. If I had to guess, I’d say we might be looking at an opener and Mike Mayers going, but maybe they call up Austin Cox for his first big league start. I’d bet on the former, but you never know.

Then after an off day on Thursday, they welcome in the Nationals, who are bad but somehow better than the Royals. They also are among the worst offenses in baseball and have basically no power. Their pitching is better than I thought it would be, but I think they’re the type of staff the Royals offense can handle. I guess we’ll see on that.