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After Sunday's game BWJ's OPS was .677 (yawn) and MJ's was .659 (double yawn.) At least they're doing better than Dozier and Eaton and JBJ but that's a terribly low bar to clear. It seems particularly unlikely that BWJ will ever achieve an OB% above .300 for an entire season. Are we just going to have to resign ourselves to the idea that this is who and what they are at the MLB level, period?

Maybe we're not there yet but when exactly will we be there? That day can't be very far off. Of course there will be ups and downs but they may well average out to exactly what the numbers are now.

Is there any genuinely factual basis for assuming otherwise besides unadulterated hope?

In April I said I thought that BWJ would hit .265 to .280 most seasons. Now I'm beginning to suspect that I was grossly overoptimistic. Pratto and Vinnie are looking very encouraging but can't realistically hope to carry their own weight plus compensate for what BWJ and MJ aren't doing, except possibly in very short stretches.

Salvy and Duffy are definitely productive but are certainly closer to the end of their careers than the beginning. They may be even closer to the end of their time with the Royals, especially Duffy. Who else is there to carry the load? Yes I like Massey and Garcia (at least so far) but they can hardly be expected to carry the team the way Salvy has so many times before.

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I would bet any sum of money you'd offer that Witt will have a .300+ OBP at some point. I'd probably bet a lot that it'll be within the next couple of seasons. I believe in the worker that he is and the talent there. Sometimes players struggle in their second seasons. It's why I wrote about it. Look at Julio Rodriguez and his .656 OPS (triple yawn!). It happens.

These are players with flaws. Flaws don't mean failures. Plenty of stars have flaws. I'm not going to make a permanent judgment on any of these players just yet. I think they're likely to lack consistency until they tone down some of those flaws, which is why I'd like them to add some pieces, but to think that this is just what they are and that's it is silly to me.

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That's why I posed it as a question instead of a definitive statement. But your reply raises another question: when will it be okay to "make a permanent judgment on any of these players"? My concern is that if any of them eventually do figure it out, it will be right around the time they're becoming eligible for free agency.

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It's okay whenever you want it to be okay. There isn't a hard and fast rule no matter what people want to claim. Some guys take longer than others. If you want to make the judgment today, make it today.

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I'm definitely not there yet. But I'm also quite confident that I'm closer to it than you are!

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I'm pretty confident that part is true too.

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This OPS thing is almost like a demented game of limbo: "how LOW can you GO?"

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Perhaps 5 ER in 4 ⅔ IP is all we can expect out of Castillo or any "bulk guy" on this roster. I fully understand what the plan was on Sunday but I also understand this: once battle is joined, whether in military matters or in business or in sports, sometimes plans need to be modified. Sometimes they need to be modified A LOT.

We can only hope that Quatraro will soon prove himself willing and able to recognize this fact and to act on it. The quality and effectiveness of any manager's decisions depend to a significant extent on this, and that's not true just in sports.

This we know for certain: Hernandez, especially when he is "on" as he was on Sunday, is fully capable of throwing more than 27 pitches in a baseball game.

Replacing him so quickly with Castillo was a very poor decision regardless of what the plan was before the game began. When opposing hitters have proven themselves utterly helpless against your pitcher you should never remove him from the game, not unless there's an injury or significant risk of injury involved. And this isn't just the benefit of hindsight. I said so - LOUDLY and maybe a little profanely - at the time.

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The only thing we know for certain is that Hernandez can throw more than 27 pitches. Should he have? Maybe. But I can tell you with some degree of certainty that if it didn't work out, there would have been people complaining about that. And maybe the plan is to ensure that Hernandez is available tomorrow. Every game is part of 162, not one of one. I have zero problem with Hernandez going two and being done because that was his role. He hasn't thrown more than 36 pitches in a game since August of last year. What they've done this year is obviously working to make him a dominant relief force. I'd have been fine with another inning. I was fine with not another inning. And that's even with the benefit of hindsight.

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I only saw some of Sunday’s game too. Not really missing anything I see. I don’t see it with Castillo either. If we need to use him this year to get through some innings so be it…but I just don’t see the combination of stuff and/or location for his stuff. Someone has to throw…and I don’t mind the trade to find out. But he can’t be an answer next year.

Hernandez. More please. I actually wouldn’t mind 3 innings and/or one time through the lineup. No way the 7-9 hitters will be able to hit what he is doing right now I get why 2 innings…but that shouldn’t be set in stone. He’s proven he might not be the guy to go 5-6 innings. But he is a perfect guy to get you through the order once I think. He was the best pitcher in the game and an actual weapon.

I think I’ve said this already but I’m done with Olivares. It’s not happening. He can hit, but he’s such a tweaner. The one game I watched this weekend he doesn’t run out a grounder that was close to the line and then I watched him drop a (it was a tough play) ball in the outfield. Yes, it was tough, but this is also the major leagues. If it hits in your glove you need to catch it. The evaluation is over with him for me. I sure hope it is for the Royals as well. I get SOMEONE has to play to field a team….but come on with some of these guys already Royals. Dozier, JBJ, and Olivares particularly. But a team needs to be fielded….i get that.

This is a 100 loss team isn’t it?

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If you're going to go three with Hernandez, I'd prefer him as the bulk guy. Maybe get four out of him that way. I think I'd be very interested in something like Garrett to start and Hernandez for a few after that if they're looking for some other combinations. Especially against a team like Cleveland or something since they have three lefties in their top six most nights.

I agree that Olivares has proven he's not good enough to be a starter. I think he's a nice bat off the bench on a good team, but this team isn't that. He has an option left, but at this point, he's keeping a spot warm. If Isbel and Waters could ever get on the field at the same time, I would think that his time would be done, but he's been saved by some injuries.

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Wait, what? So it turns out that you really ARE "willing to make a permanent judgment" with some players but not with others? What's up with that?

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May 22, 2023Liked by David Lesky

I don’t think anyone should be making any permanent judgements on 21/22 year old guys. BWJ is going to get better. Does it mean he is going to be the star that the Royals envisioned and sold us on? No. But that doesn’t mean he’s not going to be an above average player for them. Is it a concern he hasn’t really taken a step forward with the bat? Yes, for sure. But he has taken a step forward defensively. Look, BWJ is a major league player. Him, Vinny, and Salvy are the only ones they have in the lineup that you can be pretty darn sure on. They are the least of the worries.

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May 22, 2023·edited May 22, 2023

I fully agree with you that it's still too soon in the case of MJ and BWJ. But that leaves a very significant question unanswered: when will it not be "too soon"? I understand that everyone can come up with their own opinion on that but it's clear that David has a very strong one. I'm trying to figure out exactly what the basis for that is.

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It's a case by case basis. Elite talent gets longer than non-elite talent.

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I’ve actually got a lot of questions with MJ. He’s got so much going on at the plate. He’s got elite power, so you give him more time. But if they traded him I say “yeah, that’s not a sure thing”. He could absolutely hit 30 home runs for a different team, but that wouldn’t mean it was the wrong move. You don’t do it for nothing obviously, I’m just saying I’ve personally got a lot of questions with his swing.

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No swing has to be alike. I’m just saying my eyes say BWJ swing 1000% better and easier maintenance than MJ’s.

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He has A LOT of moving parts. When it works, it works great. He has hit .279/.333/.456 since late April. It's an arbitrary endpoint, but have to start somewhere. I don't think it really matters too much with him. It's been made pretty clear in a number of ways that he isn't long-term with this club.

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When a player hasn't shown a single elite tool, I'll make a judgment. That's "what's up with that."

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May 22, 2023Liked by David Lesky

He now, Olivares elite tool is not being able to field. Give credit where credit is due!

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🤣🤣

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A couple of musings (and as usual, David, great piece):

The White Sox pitching has been shockingly abysmal this season. The biggest culprit has been Lance Lynn. The back of his baseball card (well, except for that "born" part, because Father Time always wins in the end) indicates that he was due to turn it around. I wouldn't be surprised to see the White Sox still challenge for this division. Now what that means, I have no idea. Will it even take more than 80 wins to grab this thing?

I know the other day I expressed a little frustration with people who thought this season was about wins and losses, and now I'd like to backtrack a bit. I did a quick gaze at all the standings since 1998 and found that there have been 39 100-plus-loss seasons in the 24 full seasons since then. SIX of them belong to the Royals and nobody else has more than four (Pirates). At some point, the "evaluation" shtick gets old. I'm a degenerate, so I'll follow the Royals no matter what, but I have no call to criticize how anybody else does it just because it isn't what I'd do. They're the rational ones, not me.

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Oh it just gets old Chris because the Nationals, Tigers, and some of these teams you thought you were ahead of are better than you. And honestly, if they would have REALLY cleaned house with new everything it would just feel better. Sometimes you just have to put the blame on the last group right? It happens everywhere, in every business, where the last group gets the blame even if not their fault just so the new group can start fresh. But when you kinda sorta do a clean house…and now you are worse. It’s just frustrating all around. So yeah, I’m frustrated by the wins and losses even if it doesn’t mean anything this year. It just feels like they are so far away right now.

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Yup. You're absolutely right. And look: they play exactly those two teams on this homestand. We'll really find out where they stand now.

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Have you seen the standings that show it's in full order if you start at the top of the AL East all the way to the bottom of the AL Central? I don't *think* the first place team in the Central will win fewer than the last place team in the East, but I also don't know that it won't happen.

The Royals bought themselves a soft reset when they fired Dayton Moore, Mike Matheny and Cal Eldred. That's when what happened in 2018 and 2019 and 2020 and all those other years stopped mattering and when it became about this moment moving forward. The past can't be changed and all that. This is the problem, though, with perpetual rebuilding. A team that had hope in guys like Adalberto Mondesi and Ryan O'Hearn (just as an example) and is now building around others is, for all intents and purposes, brand new, but to the fans, it's the same team. It's hard to justify losing for this long.

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It is hard to justify it, and it's my sincere hope that the continued struggles, plus the added annoyance of where the new stadium is going to be located, don't just turn fans off completely and give ownership a reason to relocate. I don't think that's going to happen, but man...

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May 22, 2023·edited May 22, 2023Author

I promise you the Royals aren't leaving KC.

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May 22, 2023Liked by David Lesky

I liked "laving" better. The town needs a good washing!

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I can’t shake the Carlos who in August of ‘21 was dominate in 5 1/3 against the mariners. I lost pretty much all hope for that guy coming back but here I am again lol. IMO if he’s not seen as a backend guy in the bullpen then why not let him start? Patience is probably key here and a few more appearances out of the pen can’t hurt but it is an evaluation year and I still think there’s a valuable starter there. Worst case scenario it doesn’t work out and he losses coincidence and can’t even return to his present form. In that scenario we’re down a replaceable bullpen arm...oh no

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I've written why they don't want him starting. At least not right now. It's the days between the starts. They don't believe he does well with the set schedule and does well with the uncertainty of pitching this day or that day. They may revisit it down the road, but it was important to get him in a role where he can succeed for the timebeing.

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Definitely and it’s certainly the right call and those reasons you’ve wrote about are legit and understandable. His development path is also so different since a lot of it was at the big league level. I’m bad at patience but it could be really important here and frankly I won’t be upset if they keep using him how they do.

But there’s something there. Can’t deny it, we all see it. I think if we play our cards right we have a stud on our hands. I trust our pitching development to get him there so I will buy in to their plan for him

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May 22, 2023Liked by David Lesky

Herenandez is the guy that would be on 10 different teams because the “stuff” is there. The fact that the royals are finding the right way to use him and get him throwing enough strikes is a positive. He’s the type of guy they would let go and some other team would figure out 3 years ago.

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There are so many variables with the starter vs. reliever thing. Maybe he's not 99 when he's throwing 100 pitches, but he's 96. Eh, does that make a difference? Maybe not! But maybe! Just a lot of factors, but I do believe they have the right staff in place to ultimately get it right.

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I know the offense hasn’t been good, but man I’ve still feel so much better about the offense than I do the pitching. The pitching has gone worse than I feared….and I had pretty strong fears about the rotation and depth going into the year. Singer and Lynch finding something would go a long way…but they need a win or two on the pitching side this year. Maybe that’s Hernandez…IDK. More than minor league wins would help let’s put it that way.

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I wasn't prepared for the injuries, though maybe I should have been, but I actually think the pitching has been about what I expected other than Singer struggling, though he's had two good ones in a row, so maybe he's turning it around. I mean Lyles is worse than I thought, but who really cares? So yeah, Singer and Lynch would be huge. They need to get *someone* up to have some success. Maybe it's Zerpa if he gets back on a mound this year. I've heard NOTHING on him, which is weird. Maybe it's Veneziano or Marsh or maybe what we saw from Kowar was the start of something. I don't know, but you're absolutely right that they need a win or three.

But if we get to August 1 and they're getting starts from some combination of Singer, Lynch, Veneziano, Marsh, Bowlan, whoever and they're pitching well, I think we feel pretty good about things. At least some reason for optimism. It feels like it's forever away, but it doesn't necessarily have to be.

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So. As a teacher this time of the year is crazy busy with graduation, end of the year this and that. As such, I was lucky enough to completely miss this series. But checking box scores, listening to Kaufman Korner, and this newsletter a few things have sprung to mind. We need to know what’s real and what’s noise. On the lineup side, I think we can legitimately only say Salvy and Vinny are real. I think Pratto has a chance to get there and I argued in the Kaufman Korner pod chat that they should stick him on LF and leave him there and have Alex Gordon tutor him this off-season. His BABIP is unsustainable but he’s got pop and has a good command of the strike zone. I’m really out on Witt and MJ. Witt needs to be hitting 5th or below. Preferably 7th or 9th as a secondary lead off type. Even with MJ’s hot streak he is still below league average by a wide margin. As for the pitchers. We need to leave Hernandez alone. He seems to have been positively impacted by the new coaching staff. Singer seems to have righted the ship but his stuff is just so mediocre. I think Kowar has a place. I don’t think his AAA numbers mean anything. I think he was working on stuff. And .... that’s it?

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I don't have a problem with Pratto in left field, but I think there may be more valuable in moving him than having him play out of position, especially with how many corner outfielders this team has and how relatively easy they are to theoretically find. I said with Soren last week that they shouldn't go into next year with all four of Vinnie, Salvy, Pratto and MJ and I still think that's true. I'm fine with Pratto being able to slot in a corner on the days that Salvy doesn't catch, but I think he needs to ultimately be playing first base most days.

I'm not going to be out on Witt or MJ that fast. MJ is still below average in spite of playing well, but he dug himself quite a hole. The fact that he dug that hole is concerning, of course, but it just seems like a quick hook on either guy who is so talented. Development isn't always linear, though I do agree Witt should be in the middle of the order, not at the top.

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I agree. And with Witt I actually buy that. If you look at his rookie season it is weirdly similar, offensively, to Manny Machado. Less power and more speed. With MJ, though. He has flashes of the tools. But we’re 700 plate appearances in and his numbers are almost identical to what they were last year. He’s the one I would ship out.

If Pratto can hit 270/360/450 in LF, I’d take that any day of the week. I think he has the athleticism to make it work.

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He's fine in left field. But I just hate the idea of taking someone who is legitimately very good at one position and putting him somewhere he's fine.

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Thanks for bringing up where BWJ is in order, I was trending that way and wondered what Lesky thought. Maybe it takes a little pressure off him even?

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I really enjoyed your review of Saturdays game, you may remember I am ok (just ok) with his contract, but this was a much needed belly laugh.

You have written about when the losing gets to these guys, I am afraid it started creeping in this past weekend. As much hope as I had for Oli going into the season his performance was uninspired at best. Idk, maybe moving bwj down in the order would not only make sense but could also help morale a little. Lets hope they can rally for this next series against someone they can theoretically beat.

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I don't know if it did or didn't. I mean, they just won a series in San Diego on Wednesday.

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May 22, 2023Liked by David Lesky

A few thoughts on your weekend review. Loved the review of Saturday's game, I think Friday could have been summed up with. Greinke pitched so the offense took the night off, seems like we never give him any run support. I was happy to see Kowar with no runs and 3 strikeouts in 2. innings pitched, I really hope he can work through his control issues and be a good pitcher. Sunday, I guess I don't get the whole opener and bulk guy, whats the different if you give up 5 runs in the first few innings or in the middle of the game it is still 5 runs, leave the guy in who is getting outs and they aren't even touching.

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