Well, They Scored
The Royals newest reliever turned a tight game into a laugher, but there was some good at least.
It was nice to go on vacation! It wasn’t so nice that the Royals scored all of two runs in three games while I was gone. I guess in some ways, it was nice that the Royals didn’t score until the eighth inning because it meant that me leaving town wasn’t the problem. So phew, I guess? While I was gone, the Royals made a change to their rotation, moving Brad Keller to the bullpen and made it official that his rotation replacement would be Max Castillo, who they got back in the Whit Merrifield deal with Toronto. Since I’ve been gone for a bit, I’m just going to get into some of the interesting storylines from last night.
Castillo Looked Good
You might recall that I liked the Merrifield deal. To be able to get a pitcher who had some upper level success for an older player with declining skills seemed like a nice haul. Castillo didn’t perform especially well in Omaha, but it was only two starts. He came out last night and I thought he was really good. He ended up throwing 69 pitches and 48 strikes. He threw a first-pitch strike to 73.7 percent of batters. He simply attacked hitters in a way we’ve kind of only seen consistently from Brady Singer.
Castillo doesn’t have the hardest fastball, so location is key for him. And if there wasn’t a plan in place to start the game to keep the fastball up, then Castillo has some explaining to do.
But I think that was absolutely the plan. But in the end, the fastball proved to need to be a setup pitch for him. The Rays went 3 for 4 against him on the fastball and were 0 for 11 on his other pitches. He made a mistake to Yandy Diaz to start the game with the fastball, but I actually didn’t think it was a terrible pitch other than that Diaz just opened his hips up quite well on. I’d have liked to see it get a little farther in, but it was on the inside corner.
His changeup, to me, was his best pitch and was what could be the key to keeping him as a starter and not as a reliever. Here’s the pitch chart.
He threw 22 total and only seven even touched the strike zone. And yet, he still got 10 swings on it, including four whiffs. The Rays put three of them in play, fouled off three and took three for called strikes. Of the three they put in play, the maximum exit velocity on it was 75.7 MPH and the average was 73.5 MPH. That’s a pitch that is an absolute difference maker.
I could see that pitch causing some problems for it in the future if he leaves it over the plate, but with the changeups there and the fastballs up, that right there is a pretty impressive combination.
His slider is a work in progress to me, but I think you can see how it could be a plus pitch at some point if it progresses. Just to give you the same idea of where he was putting it like the other two pitches…
…you can see that he left too many over the plate. It ultimately didn’t hurt him, but it was just a little flat and when it stays over the plate without a ton of movement, it could cause problems. It seemed like he had it in the first inning but sort of lost the feel. While the changeup is going to be his bread and butter, his slider could be huge for him. His changeup could keep him a starter, but his slider could be what makes him more than a back-end starter.
Here’s a good one:
And here’s a bad one:
Again, the result of the pitch was fine, but that was middle-middle and hit nearly 108 MPH off the bat.
Sometimes you can watch a pitcher and you just can’t see if there’s any more in there. I watched Castillo last night and see someone with a future. The Rays don’t have an especially good lineup and I think he got a little fortunate with some hard-hit outs, but you can see the basis of a good big league pitcher. There are obviously no guarantees, but after seeing him in Toronto and seeing him last night, I feel comfortable asking more of if he’ll be a starter or reliever vs. asking if he’ll be a big league pitcher or not and that’s a good position to be in.
The Bats Stay (Mostly) Silent
This Royals offense has been really good at times. When it’s clicking, they put together good at bats from top to bottom. They’ve got power, they’ve got speed, they’ve got guys who hit for average and they have guys who can get on base. But this is a team running a minimum of five rookies out there every night with as many as seven. There are going to be peaks and there are going to be valleys. That said, to go 33 straight innings without scoring is pretty ridiculous. For that to be the second similar streak since the break is absolutely insane. I don’t have any doubts about Alec Zumwalt & Co. or anything, but they need to find a way to not let everyone get cold at the same time like we’ve seen so much over the last few seasons with this organization.
Where they missed opportunities in the series in Minnesota, particularly in the first two games, they simply didn’t have opportunities last night. They only had three at bats with runners in scoring position all game. They had two infield singles, a bloop single and a grounder that found a hole before they were able to get some loud contact in the last couple of innings from Michael Massey and Kyle Isbel. It was just an ugly game from the bats and to make matters worse, Vinnie Pasquantino saw his hitting streak end, which is about all there was to watch for from this offense.
That’s not entirely true. It’s probably bad form to bring up the headline of today’s newsletter this deep into it, but Massey FINALLY got his first home run of his career.
He’d been so close a few times with doubles off the wall over the last week or so, but finally got into one and broke the Royals scoreless streak. On one hand, a lot of times it just takes a little bit to break it open in future games. Seeing Massey get into that one and Isbel hit a big double to dead center could be something to build on. On the other hand, Shane McClanahan goes for the Rays tonight, so, well, good luck guys.
Keller’s Relief Debut
I honestly don’t have a lot to say about this. I was able to catch some of Wednesday’s game on a muted television in a restaurant on the way home from my vacation. I could be reading way too much into it, but they showed a shot of Keller sitting in the bullpen and he did not look happy at all. I probably shouldn’t have even said anything because I’ve been told that I look angry when I’m just sitting and reading, so maybe that’s just his resting face, but I have wondered a bit how he feels about being moved back there.
He came into a 1-0 game and gave up two groundball singles through the infield before getting a chopper that a miscommunication made another single. It’s easy to see three groundballs and think things could have been different. And they absolutely could have, sure, but they were also all hit hard. Yes, grounders are good because grounders don’t leave the park, but also the harder they’re hit, the more likely it is they can sneak through, especially on turf. The first was hit 108.5 MPH. The second was 102.5 MPH. And the third was 107 MPH. So sure, it could have been a 1-2-3 inning if they were hit a few feet either way, but it also would have been a 1-2-3 inning if the contact were weaker and gave the infielders time to actually get to the ball.
I’ll give bad luck the credit for Yandy Diaz’s double that chopped over Bobby Witt Jr.’s head, but Keller threw a slider that caught too much of the plate against Brandon Lowe and he blooped it into center. This was actually soft contact, but it was on a slider that caught a ton of the plate. Then Randy Arozarena doubled to right on a ball Isbel could have caught, but didn’t. He finally got it together and struck out David Peralta looking and then got a weak grounder from Taylor Walls. So it was a bad outing that could have easily not been as bad, but also Keller didn’t do much to make it easier on his defense behind him.
Here’s what intrigued me, though. He averaged 97.1 MPH on his fastball and touched 98.2 MPH. I’m not giving up on him as a reliever. He has a swing and miss slider when he’s right and if he can live at 97+, it can cover for a few mistakes. It was a terrible first outing out of the bullpen, but if he’s on the team next year, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he’s got 15 saves by the break.
Matheny’s Mixed Messages
Just one last thing that bothered me during the Minnesota series and then bothered me again last night. In a big situation, the Royals had Nick Pratto due up and the Rays went to their bullpen to bring out a lefty. For the second time on this trip, Matheny went to his bench and pinch hit with Brent Rooker. And I hated it.
For one thing, Rooker hasn’t even been that good against lefties throughout his career. He’s actually been better against righties. So from the start, it’s not a smart statistical move. But more than anything, 27-year old Rooker isn’t a big part of the future. Sure he might be on the roster if and when the Royals compete again, but Pratto is one of the core guys. The experience of that plate appearance in that spot is far more important than a run or a win in a season where the Royals are playing a game while 23 games under .500. And it reminds me of Ned Yost with Alcides Escobar.
“Pinch-hitting for guys gets in their dome. And you don’t want to get in their dome in the second game. When nobody is really swinging the bat good.”
I don’t know that I agreed with Yost then, but I’ve evolved quite a bit as a baseball fan and writer in the last decade. This doesn’t apply to only baseball. Learning by doing is just about the best way to get better. Pratto absolutely needed to be batting there and I’d be saying that even if Rooker hit a three-run homer. What’s the benefit to that if they win the game with Rooker coming through? It’s not nothing because winning helps development quite a bit, but it’s also not nearly as important for the 2023-2027 Royals as Pratto getting that experience.
I continue to believe Matheny is not the right manager to lead a young team both as they’re developing and as they turn toward winning being the only result that matters. Last night only reinforced that thought.
Now we see if an offense that has scored three runs in their last four games can find a way to break through against one of the best starters in baseball. And hey, at least we’re watching the future give it a go…you know, until there’s a need for a veteran pinch hitter.
Feels to me like Keller is a lost cause under the current regime and Staumont is not far behind. Regardless of velocity, neither of these guys appear to be able to hit their spots and consistently get behind in the count and then leave one in the middle of the plate that costs us. I'm really enjoying watching the young guys play, but Matheny and Eldred cannot be on the payroll beyond this year if we ever plan to contend.
New York Times - October 1, 2015
Yost can be prickly in news conferences. But in an intimate setting, he’s engaging, even warm. One afternoon this summer, he shared memories with me about a friend he considered a mentor, the car racer Dale Earnhardt, whom he met through a common friend in the early 1990s. Yost wears his No. 3 to honor Earnhardt, who died in a crash in 2001. ‘‘We hit it off,’’ he said. ‘‘Hunted together every year.’’ In 1994, when a labor dispute truncated the baseball season, Earnhardt invited Yost to travel with him on the Nascar circuit and serve as ‘‘rehydration engineer’’ (in other words, water-fetcher). At one race, Earnhardt roared back from a huge deficit and nearly won. When Yost congratulated him, Earnhardt grabbed him by the shirt and pulled his friend nose to nose. ‘‘Never, ever, let anybody who you’re around, anybody you’re associated with, allow you to settle for mediocrity,’’ Yost says Earnhardt told him.
Later, Yost would be criticized for not replacing erratic infielders when he had late-inning leads and allowing untested pitchers to compete — and often fail — in crucial situations. The critics didn’t understand, he told me, that he wasn’t necessarily trying to win those games. ‘‘The difference between 72 and 76 wins doesn’t mean a damn thing to me,’’ he says. It was the same as the difference between second place and last place, which, Earnhardt had stressed, was no difference at all.
‘‘I wanted to put those young players in a position to gain experience, so that when we could compete for a championship, they’d know how,’’ Yost says. ‘‘You can’t do that when you’re pinch-hitting for young guys. You can’t do it when you quick-hook starting pitchers. They’ll never learn to work themselves out of trouble. People would say, ‘What’s he doing?’ They didn’t understand. I’d rather lose a game on my watch so they could win later.’’