welcome back...i hope you didn't watch while you were away. Did you happen to read Max's article on the 2012 draft? what a BUST...do you know if any of those guys besides Strahm made it?
Mr. L, given Staumont's ongoing struggles, I'd rather see Keller as a setup arm, but his salary seems expensive for a reliever and what if he goes to arbitration and actually wins? Your thoughts please?
I’m not 100% sure on this with him in the bullpen now, but I believe he’ll be able to compare himself to starters because of how he’s been used for the last four plus years and he could conceivably get $10 million. I think that’s the highest high end of possibility but it could happen. I just can’t imagine spending that on a setup man when that’s the going rate for proven setup men. Look at what Graveman got last year (3/$24 million). Sure it’s one year vs. three, but I have a tough time thinking they’ll pop that for a setup guy.
I don’t understand the voodoo magic the Rays have. How are they a playoff team with that offense? Oh, because they can pitch you say?……man, that’s frustrating.
Anyway, Keller. Concerned about arms going into next year…because who wouldn’t be…but Castillo put a lot of those fears to rest. He can probably do as good as Keller being near league minimum than paying Keller 8m to do that. Its just a couple of games but still. Question is this……do you feel like this was the plan since the trade deadline? Meaning, its possible the thought has been around for a while now that he is going to get non-tendered. Or no, he’s just been so bad they had to do something. I’m glad he’s not happy…not personally for him. But you still have to produce at some point and because its a move the Royals don’t usually make.
Thoughts on Royals farm system being ranked last now? I know its not that big a deal as they have 7 rookies in the lineup. I’m not saying its a huge deal. However……it makes it look like a trade is somewhat unlikely this offseason doesn’t unless you are using pieces already on the big league club.
They pitch and they’re managed exceptionally well. Very frustrating.
I wouldn’t worry about finding bodies to pitch. Castillo looked good and he’ll probably look bad at some point, but I do think they’re going to spend this winter. I don’t think this was the plan necessarily as much as they knew it was a possibility. I know people have been up in arms they didn’t trade Keller, but I keep trying to get answers on what the offers were and nobody can give an answer. I don’t necessarily have the world’s best sources so I’m sure there were answers but my people usually can give me SOMETHING. So I think there just wasn’t much of an offer and they stood pat.
I actually wrote about the system on RR today that just posted. I think it’s a bit of an under rank, but not by much, but yeah, they have plenty of young and controllable talent.
Well what I didn’t understand going into the deadline was Keller’s possible Arb number going into next year….and I’m sure EVERY other team knew that information. So, if the royals who need pitching are willing to walk away from him this offseason for that number, why would any team actually trade for him? Probably a situation where fans and media overvalue our guy. I completely understand why he wasn’t traded. There was no market. If teams think they can fix him….then sign him but its not a 7-8M project they want to take on. The fastball velo was higher last night but I feel like he used to get more movement on it. He doesn’t seem to get much movement on it anymore and its the fine line between soft contact and hard contact.
That’s what I’m saying. Every team knows. It’s also why they didn’t make a move on Staumont. Every team can see what’s going on with these guys. There are just no secrets around the game anymore.
He’s shifted to his four-seamer more lately, though he did throw a pretty equal number of fours and twos last night, so maybe he’ll get back to the two-seamer but with higher velocity. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up good in the bullpen. He just wasn’t last night.
Maybe I'm nuts--well, there's no DOUBT that I'm nuts--but I think that Keller is brooding and once he gets used to the idea that he is in the pen at least for the balance of this season (and Max Castillo certainly earned at least another start or three), he'll actually perform.
Now, how do they fix the mess that Josh Staumont has become?
Oh I think he can be an excellent reliever. I don’t know that I’d predict it, but like I wrote, it won’t surprise me in the least.
I’m convinced Staumont just isn’t 100%. The issue is that I’m not sure he ever will be. I also think back to before they moved him to the bullpen in the minors when people said that they were worried he was almost too cerebral on the mound. I sort of get the sense that he’s tinkering a lot right now.
Can Sherman not hire someone from the Guardians to run things? He should know everyone and know how everyone operates. I bring it up because on RR on your notes you said the Guardians are the only team close with players 25 and under. So they have as close to the royals in young controllable players, are CURRENTLY leading the division, AND if I’m reading this right….a top 5 ranked farm system from BA yesterday still to pull from.
What are we doing here? I’m sure JJ Picollo/DM are good people.….but just pull your contacts from Cleveland and lets go.
I wouldn't be surprised if someone from that organization does come over this winter, but there are a lot of incredibly well run orgs. I'd hope that Sherman doesn't only look to what he knows, which I assume would be the case. The reality is that, as much as I disagree with it, they're not going to do anything until after the season if they do something. Personally, I don't think it makes much of a difference at this point, but I imagine this group would wait.
Yost can be prickly in news conferences. But in an intimate setting, he’s engaging, even warm. One afternoon this summer, he shared memories with me about a friend he considered a mentor, the car racer Dale Earnhardt, whom he met through a common friend in the early 1990s. Yost wears his No. 3 to honor Earnhardt, who died in a crash in 2001. ‘‘We hit it off,’’ he said. ‘‘Hunted together every year.’’ In 1994, when a labor dispute truncated the baseball season, Earnhardt invited Yost to travel with him on the Nascar circuit and serve as ‘‘rehydration engineer’’ (in other words, water-fetcher). At one race, Earnhardt roared back from a huge deficit and nearly won. When Yost congratulated him, Earnhardt grabbed him by the shirt and pulled his friend nose to nose. ‘‘Never, ever, let anybody who you’re around, anybody you’re associated with, allow you to settle for mediocrity,’’ Yost says Earnhardt told him.
Later, Yost would be criticized for not replacing erratic infielders when he had late-inning leads and allowing untested pitchers to compete — and often fail — in crucial situations. The critics didn’t understand, he told me, that he wasn’t necessarily trying to win those games. ‘‘The difference between 72 and 76 wins doesn’t mean a damn thing to me,’’ he says. It was the same as the difference between second place and last place, which, Earnhardt had stressed, was no difference at all.
‘‘I wanted to put those young players in a position to gain experience, so that when we could compete for a championship, they’d know how,’’ Yost says. ‘‘You can’t do that when you’re pinch-hitting for young guys. You can’t do it when you quick-hook starting pitchers. They’ll never learn to work themselves out of trouble. People would say, ‘What’s he doing?’ They didn’t understand. I’d rather lose a game on my watch so they could win later.’’
The Royals have taken the 14th most called third strikes, so right in the middle. They've taken the fewest middle-middle pitches in baseball. And they've swung and missed at the 11th fewest middle-middle pitches in baseball. So yes.
Feels to me like Keller is a lost cause under the current regime and Staumont is not far behind. Regardless of velocity, neither of these guys appear to be able to hit their spots and consistently get behind in the count and then leave one in the middle of the plate that costs us. I'm really enjoying watching the young guys play, but Matheny and Eldred cannot be on the payroll beyond this year if we ever plan to contend.
The Braves continue locking down their best (and really young) players with long-term contracts/extensions. We know how much Dayton loves doing things the Braves way. Let's hope that extends to doing some of this, here in KC.
But I'm not holding my breath for that.
Added later: when I posted this I had no idea that Soren's opening monologue on Friday would be an excellent one on this very topic. That was immediately followed by an even more excellent discussion of this with Lesky, followed by a very cool examination of the Brad Keller question. If you missed it, I highly recommend checking out the podcast of the first hour of Friday's "The Program." Really interesting and informative stuff!
Assuming Dayton is even still in KC, which is not anywhere near a foregone conclusion, I'd expect them to make big efforts to sign some of these young hitters. I'd expect it whether Dayton is around or not, but Cleveland and Atlanta both do it regularly. The owner came from Cleveland and the President does a lot of things the Atlanta way. I don't think it's silly to assume the effort will be there. It's a lot easier to get a young player to sign away 7-10 years for a perennial winner than a perennial loser. So we'll see if it gets done, but I can promise you that the effort will be there whether it does or not.
Even before Zumwalt was promoted to MLB hitting coach, it seems pretty clear that he was the "guy in overall charge of hitting philosophy" at least in the minor leagues. Which leads to a question: who is the analogous person (or people) on the pitching side?
It's Paul Gibson. Alec Lewis wrote this morning about the changes made on the pitching side at the same time as the changes made on the hitting side. They hired Jason Simontacchi and some other coaches as well.
David - I feel so validated!! I promise you I wrote this comment before I read your article!
Pinch-hitting Rooker for Pratto against a LHP…I'm unclear on how that helps Pratto improve or gain the experience that he needs. And I'm REALLY unclear on how that enhances the team's chances of winning a ballgame.
True, Pratto's BA was .180 at the time. But that was ~50 points higher than Rooker's. And please don't tell me that Pratto's delicate psyche can't handle the trauma of making an out against a lefty. I don't believe that one for a second.
I mean I don’t really care about either of their averages. Neither has a big enough sample for that to matter. The only thing that matters for this team is 2023 and beyond and that move was made with August 18, 2022 in mind and only that, which makes it wrong even if Pratto was hitless in 100 at bats.
What do you make of Pratto's time in the big leagues so far?
All I know is... if I have him in with 2 strikes in a count, I'm throwing a fastball middle-in because Lord knows he isn't swinging. Feels like I've seen him go down looking on that exact pitch at least 10 times in his brief stint with the big league club.
He's struck out looking eight times. Three on four-seam fastballs, twice on sinkers, once each on a cutter, slider and changeup. Four of those were pitches that he absolutely should have been swinging at. I think he needs to be a little more aggressive. He has a great eye, but he gets himself into holes. My guess is he's approaching at bats against pitchers like he saw in the minors and needs to adjust to the fact that a big league pitcher will throw any pitch at any time. I'd like to see that adjustment start to happen. While I think the 1500 PA thing is pretty silly from Dayton, Pratto only has 104 PA at this point. I think it's fair to give him a little time.
Before Dayton Moore was hired to be the new GM were there any leaks that he was going to be the man to replace Allard Baird? If not, then I don't expect there to be any now. If so, then that's a bit troubling.
Dayton Moore was the hottest name on the market, so there was talk, but it was also an entirely different world 16 years ago in terms of rumors and access to information. Also, the organization was under different ownership. What happened in 2006 has as little bearing on what happens on 2022 as possible.
Whoops, I had Dayton Moore on the brain. What I meant was Alec Zumwalt who was the minor league hitting coordinator before he was promoted to be the Royals hitting coach.
There was nothing publicly other than me saying I would expect a move to be made fairly soon, but that was only because I had some very good information on that. I had zero clue it would be Zumwalt replacing Bradshaw.
Interesting stat on the telecast Friday night: When BWJ faces a pitcher for the 2nd time in a game, his BA jumps by 97 points. His slugging% also improves dramatically. I find that really impressive - that a guy so young would be able to diagnose and adjust to what opponents are trying to do to him so quickly. Especially when you consider that he's seeing a lot of those pitchers for the first time in his life.
He also has the 3rd-highest BA with two outs in all of MLB. I never would have guessed.
On the surface, it makes no sense that Rooker is in the big leagues while Waters is at Omaha. Does it just come down to the simple fact that they're more interested in getting regular AB's for Waters than for Rooker?
Waters was kind of a disaster before the trade. They’re working with him on a lot of things and, yes, they want him getting every day at bats. I was told he’ll be in AAA the rest of the year when the trade was made, basically no matter what. Not sure if it’s changed since then, but I wouldn’t count on seeing him this year.
welcome back...i hope you didn't watch while you were away. Did you happen to read Max's article on the 2012 draft? what a BUST...do you know if any of those guys besides Strahm made it?
I haven’t gone back to read that, but it was a brutal draft. Eight players they signed made it to the big leagues. None have been anything special.
Mr. L, given Staumont's ongoing struggles, I'd rather see Keller as a setup arm, but his salary seems expensive for a reliever and what if he goes to arbitration and actually wins? Your thoughts please?
I’m not 100% sure on this with him in the bullpen now, but I believe he’ll be able to compare himself to starters because of how he’s been used for the last four plus years and he could conceivably get $10 million. I think that’s the highest high end of possibility but it could happen. I just can’t imagine spending that on a setup man when that’s the going rate for proven setup men. Look at what Graveman got last year (3/$24 million). Sure it’s one year vs. three, but I have a tough time thinking they’ll pop that for a setup guy.
I don’t understand the voodoo magic the Rays have. How are they a playoff team with that offense? Oh, because they can pitch you say?……man, that’s frustrating.
Anyway, Keller. Concerned about arms going into next year…because who wouldn’t be…but Castillo put a lot of those fears to rest. He can probably do as good as Keller being near league minimum than paying Keller 8m to do that. Its just a couple of games but still. Question is this……do you feel like this was the plan since the trade deadline? Meaning, its possible the thought has been around for a while now that he is going to get non-tendered. Or no, he’s just been so bad they had to do something. I’m glad he’s not happy…not personally for him. But you still have to produce at some point and because its a move the Royals don’t usually make.
Thoughts on Royals farm system being ranked last now? I know its not that big a deal as they have 7 rookies in the lineup. I’m not saying its a huge deal. However……it makes it look like a trade is somewhat unlikely this offseason doesn’t unless you are using pieces already on the big league club.
They pitch and they’re managed exceptionally well. Very frustrating.
I wouldn’t worry about finding bodies to pitch. Castillo looked good and he’ll probably look bad at some point, but I do think they’re going to spend this winter. I don’t think this was the plan necessarily as much as they knew it was a possibility. I know people have been up in arms they didn’t trade Keller, but I keep trying to get answers on what the offers were and nobody can give an answer. I don’t necessarily have the world’s best sources so I’m sure there were answers but my people usually can give me SOMETHING. So I think there just wasn’t much of an offer and they stood pat.
I actually wrote about the system on RR today that just posted. I think it’s a bit of an under rank, but not by much, but yeah, they have plenty of young and controllable talent.
Well what I didn’t understand going into the deadline was Keller’s possible Arb number going into next year….and I’m sure EVERY other team knew that information. So, if the royals who need pitching are willing to walk away from him this offseason for that number, why would any team actually trade for him? Probably a situation where fans and media overvalue our guy. I completely understand why he wasn’t traded. There was no market. If teams think they can fix him….then sign him but its not a 7-8M project they want to take on. The fastball velo was higher last night but I feel like he used to get more movement on it. He doesn’t seem to get much movement on it anymore and its the fine line between soft contact and hard contact.
That’s what I’m saying. Every team knows. It’s also why they didn’t make a move on Staumont. Every team can see what’s going on with these guys. There are just no secrets around the game anymore.
He’s shifted to his four-seamer more lately, though he did throw a pretty equal number of fours and twos last night, so maybe he’ll get back to the two-seamer but with higher velocity. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up good in the bullpen. He just wasn’t last night.
Maybe I'm nuts--well, there's no DOUBT that I'm nuts--but I think that Keller is brooding and once he gets used to the idea that he is in the pen at least for the balance of this season (and Max Castillo certainly earned at least another start or three), he'll actually perform.
Now, how do they fix the mess that Josh Staumont has become?
Oh I think he can be an excellent reliever. I don’t know that I’d predict it, but like I wrote, it won’t surprise me in the least.
I’m convinced Staumont just isn’t 100%. The issue is that I’m not sure he ever will be. I also think back to before they moved him to the bullpen in the minors when people said that they were worried he was almost too cerebral on the mound. I sort of get the sense that he’s tinkering a lot right now.
Can Sherman not hire someone from the Guardians to run things? He should know everyone and know how everyone operates. I bring it up because on RR on your notes you said the Guardians are the only team close with players 25 and under. So they have as close to the royals in young controllable players, are CURRENTLY leading the division, AND if I’m reading this right….a top 5 ranked farm system from BA yesterday still to pull from.
What are we doing here? I’m sure JJ Picollo/DM are good people.….but just pull your contacts from Cleveland and lets go.
I wouldn't be surprised if someone from that organization does come over this winter, but there are a lot of incredibly well run orgs. I'd hope that Sherman doesn't only look to what he knows, which I assume would be the case. The reality is that, as much as I disagree with it, they're not going to do anything until after the season if they do something. Personally, I don't think it makes much of a difference at this point, but I imagine this group would wait.
New York Times - October 1, 2015
Yost can be prickly in news conferences. But in an intimate setting, he’s engaging, even warm. One afternoon this summer, he shared memories with me about a friend he considered a mentor, the car racer Dale Earnhardt, whom he met through a common friend in the early 1990s. Yost wears his No. 3 to honor Earnhardt, who died in a crash in 2001. ‘‘We hit it off,’’ he said. ‘‘Hunted together every year.’’ In 1994, when a labor dispute truncated the baseball season, Earnhardt invited Yost to travel with him on the Nascar circuit and serve as ‘‘rehydration engineer’’ (in other words, water-fetcher). At one race, Earnhardt roared back from a huge deficit and nearly won. When Yost congratulated him, Earnhardt grabbed him by the shirt and pulled his friend nose to nose. ‘‘Never, ever, let anybody who you’re around, anybody you’re associated with, allow you to settle for mediocrity,’’ Yost says Earnhardt told him.
Later, Yost would be criticized for not replacing erratic infielders when he had late-inning leads and allowing untested pitchers to compete — and often fail — in crucial situations. The critics didn’t understand, he told me, that he wasn’t necessarily trying to win those games. ‘‘The difference between 72 and 76 wins doesn’t mean a damn thing to me,’’ he says. It was the same as the difference between second place and last place, which, Earnhardt had stressed, was no difference at all.
‘‘I wanted to put those young players in a position to gain experience, so that when we could compete for a championship, they’d know how,’’ Yost says. ‘‘You can’t do that when you’re pinch-hitting for young guys. You can’t do it when you quick-hook starting pitchers. They’ll never learn to work themselves out of trouble. People would say, ‘What’s he doing?’ They didn’t understand. I’d rather lose a game on my watch so they could win later.’’
Man, I love Ned. And man, I miss Ned.
Have you ever seen a team take so many hittable called third strikes? Or take or miss middle middle fastballs or hanging sliders?
The Royals have taken the 14th most called third strikes, so right in the middle. They've taken the fewest middle-middle pitches in baseball. And they've swung and missed at the 11th fewest middle-middle pitches in baseball. So yes.
Feels to me like Keller is a lost cause under the current regime and Staumont is not far behind. Regardless of velocity, neither of these guys appear to be able to hit their spots and consistently get behind in the count and then leave one in the middle of the plate that costs us. I'm really enjoying watching the young guys play, but Matheny and Eldred cannot be on the payroll beyond this year if we ever plan to contend.
The Braves continue locking down their best (and really young) players with long-term contracts/extensions. We know how much Dayton loves doing things the Braves way. Let's hope that extends to doing some of this, here in KC.
But I'm not holding my breath for that.
Added later: when I posted this I had no idea that Soren's opening monologue on Friday would be an excellent one on this very topic. That was immediately followed by an even more excellent discussion of this with Lesky, followed by a very cool examination of the Brad Keller question. If you missed it, I highly recommend checking out the podcast of the first hour of Friday's "The Program." Really interesting and informative stuff!
Assuming Dayton is even still in KC, which is not anywhere near a foregone conclusion, I'd expect them to make big efforts to sign some of these young hitters. I'd expect it whether Dayton is around or not, but Cleveland and Atlanta both do it regularly. The owner came from Cleveland and the President does a lot of things the Atlanta way. I don't think it's silly to assume the effort will be there. It's a lot easier to get a young player to sign away 7-10 years for a perennial winner than a perennial loser. So we'll see if it gets done, but I can promise you that the effort will be there whether it does or not.
Even before Zumwalt was promoted to MLB hitting coach, it seems pretty clear that he was the "guy in overall charge of hitting philosophy" at least in the minor leagues. Which leads to a question: who is the analogous person (or people) on the pitching side?
It's Paul Gibson. Alec Lewis wrote this morning about the changes made on the pitching side at the same time as the changes made on the hitting side. They hired Jason Simontacchi and some other coaches as well.
David - I feel so validated!! I promise you I wrote this comment before I read your article!
Pinch-hitting Rooker for Pratto against a LHP…I'm unclear on how that helps Pratto improve or gain the experience that he needs. And I'm REALLY unclear on how that enhances the team's chances of winning a ballgame.
True, Pratto's BA was .180 at the time. But that was ~50 points higher than Rooker's. And please don't tell me that Pratto's delicate psyche can't handle the trauma of making an out against a lefty. I don't believe that one for a second.
I mean I don’t really care about either of their averages. Neither has a big enough sample for that to matter. The only thing that matters for this team is 2023 and beyond and that move was made with August 18, 2022 in mind and only that, which makes it wrong even if Pratto was hitless in 100 at bats.
What do you make of Pratto's time in the big leagues so far?
All I know is... if I have him in with 2 strikes in a count, I'm throwing a fastball middle-in because Lord knows he isn't swinging. Feels like I've seen him go down looking on that exact pitch at least 10 times in his brief stint with the big league club.
He's struck out looking eight times. Three on four-seam fastballs, twice on sinkers, once each on a cutter, slider and changeup. Four of those were pitches that he absolutely should have been swinging at. I think he needs to be a little more aggressive. He has a great eye, but he gets himself into holes. My guess is he's approaching at bats against pitchers like he saw in the minors and needs to adjust to the fact that a big league pitcher will throw any pitch at any time. I'd like to see that adjustment start to happen. While I think the 1500 PA thing is pretty silly from Dayton, Pratto only has 104 PA at this point. I think it's fair to give him a little time.
Before Dayton Moore was hired to be the new GM were there any leaks that he was going to be the man to replace Allard Baird? If not, then I don't expect there to be any now. If so, then that's a bit troubling.
Dayton Moore was the hottest name on the market, so there was talk, but it was also an entirely different world 16 years ago in terms of rumors and access to information. Also, the organization was under different ownership. What happened in 2006 has as little bearing on what happens on 2022 as possible.
Whoops, I had Dayton Moore on the brain. What I meant was Alec Zumwalt who was the minor league hitting coordinator before he was promoted to be the Royals hitting coach.
There was nothing publicly other than me saying I would expect a move to be made fairly soon, but that was only because I had some very good information on that. I had zero clue it would be Zumwalt replacing Bradshaw.
Interesting stat on the telecast Friday night: When BWJ faces a pitcher for the 2nd time in a game, his BA jumps by 97 points. His slugging% also improves dramatically. I find that really impressive - that a guy so young would be able to diagnose and adjust to what opponents are trying to do to him so quickly. Especially when you consider that he's seeing a lot of those pitchers for the first time in his life.
He also has the 3rd-highest BA with two outs in all of MLB. I never would have guessed.
On the surface, it makes no sense that Rooker is in the big leagues while Waters is at Omaha. Does it just come down to the simple fact that they're more interested in getting regular AB's for Waters than for Rooker?
Waters was kind of a disaster before the trade. They’re working with him on a lot of things and, yes, they want him getting every day at bats. I was told he’ll be in AAA the rest of the year when the trade was made, basically no matter what. Not sure if it’s changed since then, but I wouldn’t count on seeing him this year.