The math in this one is a little bit of a reality check for me actually. As we’ve mentioned numerous times, on offense someone will disappoint, but overall I see more ways for improvement than regression. After reading this article….I might be more worried about the starting pitching than before. LOL. The bullpen this year is going to save this team a bunch of runs. I’m 90% sure of that. I’m just not sure that the starters can be much better than last year. But even if that is the most likely scenario…I think that still gets them around your win total.
Also, when JBJ is in the opening day starting lineup in CF…….what am I supposed to do? Find a new team to root for? The rangers should be fun this year. 2.5 days and counting!
The big question I'm asking myself about JBJ is: will I be able to persuade myself to root against somebody in a Royals uniform? I know that's probably what's best for the team but I have 54 years of conditioning pushing me in the opposite direction! It's not as if he's going to be a part of any possible future success, if there is any.
I think we all (myself included) might be overstating how bad the rotation can be in terms of the end result for the team. The 2021 team won 74 games with a rotation of Mike Minor, Brad Keller, Kris Bubic, Bad Brady Singer, Carlos Hernandez and Daniel Lynch. Danny Duffy threw 61 innings before he got hurt. Oh and they didn't hit either.
They won 74 games because of the back of the bullpen was kind of nails. I think a good bullpen can cover up a bad rotation enough to make a team respectably bad instead of horrifically bad.
David, I couldn't help but chuckle a little! If you really think those are the only things that can go wrong then you're the world's most incurable optimist. No, Murphy's law doesn't apply to all baseball teams and all ballplayers but it certainly applies to some of them, especially those with a firmly established tradition of submediocrity.
What else could go wrong? Well, let's see...
Last season could be their best season for the next 5 years. Hell, they could even rehire Matheny and the old pitching coach whose name I won't mention! (Yeah, I know. That's never gonna happen. Right?) The list could go on forever....
I mean, I obviously don't think there isn't more that can go wrong. I don't want to write 5500 words and I also wasn't going to put things in like Bobby Witt retires or something that isn't even remotely realistic.
Yes, I was just having a little fun. I realize that you had to stay in the realm of things that were at least reasonably possible.
But I'll also point out that after you've experienced 54 seasons of Royals baseball with only two championships to show for it I can promise that your perspective will have changed. A lot. A whole lot.
75 + wins = a successful season, and by that I mean sufficient success for ownership to go out and spend some $ to plug some holes. < 65 wins is a disaster. Low 70s seems about right.
I agree that 75+ is an automatic successful year, but I think that it can be successful with less depending on how they get there. I'm going to be screaming pretty loud next year if they don't spend regardless, though.
I look at the talent on this team and just don't see much. Pasquintino will hit but I really don't see anyone else hitting. I'm not that high on Witt because of his strikeouts and lack of walks and his defense. Sure. He'll probably hit a few more home runs and maybe steal a few more bases but because of his strikeout to walk ratio I just don't care for him that much. I hope I'm wrong. I'm not high on Melendez either. No defense and until he changes that batting stance I just don't see him hitting. I think the rotation is bottom ten in the league and I haven't seen enough from the bullpen to think they'll be any better. Until they stop using 5 or 6 pitchers a game and cut that down to one starter and maybe two relievers they will not improve. Use too many pitchers one will probably get lit up. I think they're looking at 90+ losses. This team still looks like a Dayton Moore team
Ouch! Jackson - the season hasn't started yet - this maybe your last chance for unabashed optimism lol. I'm not going to drastically disagree with anything you said but I think I slightly disagree with a lot. A few more homeruns and steals by Witt can go a long way. Melendez, imo, will be a bit better - not sure if he's an All-Star. Rotation is probably bottom half. And it 'kinda' looks like a Dayton Moore team - but hey, he's been gone less than a year.
One thing is for sure; I would've felt better rolling out this team last year than the one that we did.
It pretty much the same team they ended the year with. The majority of the young guys they brought up last year with the exception of pasquintino stunk. Massey shows some pop but like Witt he strikes out a lot. The outfield. Especially with Melendez in it looks bad offensively. Center and right look ok defensively but so far none of them have shown they can hit. Left field with Melendez looks bad both offensively and on defense. The starting pitching is going to hinge on whether or not most of them can improve. Singer had a good year but he has to repeat. Keller has to rebound and bubic and lynch have to start getting better. They aren't kids anymore. They're 26. 27 years old. They should be going into their prime. You can't build a staff with greinke. With the shift gone I think he finally shows his age. As far as the bullpen goes I haven't seen anything this year that shows much improvement. Piccolo is just an extention of Moore. He maybe signed a few more guys than usual but they were still then same kind of retreads that Moore used to sign. A bunch of 30+ guys who haven't done anything for 2 or 3 years. Look. I'm getting tired of being so negative. I want them to win. I've been watching them since 76 and I've seen a lot of good talent over the years and this team doesn't have that much. I'm just frustrated. They can't seem to draft or develop talent at all like they use to and they did very little to address that issue
Great article. I kind of believe in the old 'the harder I work, the luckier I get' mantra. I think most on here would agree that our Royal's bad luck has often been the result of lack of work, inefficient work (never mistake action alone for progress) or just bad work in general that is attributable to ownership, management or combinations of the two.
I feel we've crossed a bridge on that front; I'm 95% optimistic that even if we've haven't hit ringers with new ownership and management, we are better than we were. So I'm gonna presume that we will have better 'luck' than in the past and that we'll have some good stuff and some bad but mostly good. With that has my foundational belief, it sure seems like we are one legitimate starter away from .500 ball.
We've a boon of NRI's who balled out, just sent a couple of great pitchers down and we're still a man over on the roster... is there a deal in the works Lesky???
I completely agree that the leadership gives them more of a chance to be "lucky" than previous leadership. And I'm pretty optimistic on that front. Smart leaders can help to gain a win or two just from being smart.
I honestly don't know about a deal, though it wouldn't surprise me. I wonder if Jonathan Heasley played himself off the 40-man entirely, though, with his spring.
David - last year BWJ's OB% was a paltry .294, which was a big part of the reason his WAR was only 0.9. Do you genuinely see either of those numbers improving this year, and if so why?
His bWAR was 0.9. His fWAR was 2.3. There are a number of reasons for the difference, but it's really just methodology. His offensive bWAR, though, was 3.3 last season. He lost a lot with his defense there.
But do I see the OBP improving? I don't know if it will or won't, but I know his walk rate in AA was 9.0% and 9.1% in AAA before it dropped to 4.7% as a rookie. What I found interesting is that the percentage of pitches he swung at outside the zone was in line with Julio Rodriguez, who had a 7.1% walk rate. It wasn't far from Trea Turner, who had a 6.4% walk rate. AJ Pollock was also in that ballpark and his walk rate was 6.1%. I think there's a chance the low walk rate will just naturally come up even without being more selective. He needs to take more pitches, but his whiff rate and chase rate weren't nearly as bad as many seem to believe.
So if he can hit .270, which I think is reasonable, and if he can carry a still below average walk rate of even 6%, suddenly, his OBP is .321 without anything crazy even happening.
Thank you for your extremely thoughtful reply. I appreciate it.
To me the wide variance between the fangraphs WAR and the baseball reference WAR indicates that there's still a lot of subjectivity in those numbers. A lot of imprecision, if you will. "Disagreement about methodology" strikes me as "we're still not sure exactly how to measure this beyond the pure counting numbers, or what weights to assign to all the variables, or even what variables are genuinely relevant."
Your point about his walk rate seems to me a strong one. He "SHOULD" be able to improve it. Whether he actually will or not remains to be seen. I certainly hope you're right about it!
One additional thought on BWJ's walk rate: if he cranks up the power this year as you think he will, his walk rate should improve as opponents start pitching around him.
Of course that also depends on who's hitting behind him and what kind of season he's having. That's another one of those zillion variables that appears impossible to include (and to weight properly) in any WAR or "AAV" type of calculations. How many "extra" hittable pitches did Roger Maris see in 1961 because Mickey Mantle was batting behind him? No way to know for sure and there's no algorithm that will answer that question.
That's absolutely true. If he hits more, he'll be pitched around more, though he'll likely hit in front of one of Salvy, Melendez or Vinnie, so we'll see about that.
David—not sure if you covered this and perhaps there’s a reason if not but…
Seems like most of the spring training buzz was about positional players. Haven’t heard a ton of updates (from maybe anyone?) on our once-highly-rated pitching prospects like Marsh, Bowlan, Lacy, Veneziano, the guys we got back from the Benny trade, etc.
Did any of them participate in Spring Training and generate any buzz to the point that any of those guys could impact the upcoming season?
The big reason we didn’t hear much, I think, is that there’s one beat writer for this team right now and she spent most of her time with the big league club. Bowlan pitched twice (I think) and Marsh once. Lacy is there but I’ve heard NOTHING on him. Most of the others have basically been on the back fields and this is one area the lack of coverage is really hurting.
Makes sense. So the silence doesn’t automatically mean none of those guys are looking like they possibly could have figured something out this off-season and could contribute. Here’s to hoping.
The farm’s top end pitching is probably one of the most important storylines for this organization’s new leadership this season. But I think I’m recalling correctly that the leadership of the minors didn’t see a ton of overhaul.
Yeah, I wouldn't read too much into the silence. It's just a lack of coverage, which sucks.
They didn't do much in the minors, but I've heard some really interesting things about how much more open they are now to other things and I wonder a little if they weren't hamstrung organizationally by what was coming from the top. I agree it's one of the most important things to watch, especially given that they are banking on a change in the big leagues resonating organizationally. They need to be right.
Just became a paid subscriber. I got a raise this morning ( not bragging - it was very much the standard corporate "we're giving you as little extra as possible" type of deal ), & you benefit! Wheeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!
Ha ha...I came back because I forgot to mention that you can keep my name outta the drawing for Opening Day tickets. I can't go, anyway, so we might as well make the odds better for everyone else.
The math in this one is a little bit of a reality check for me actually. As we’ve mentioned numerous times, on offense someone will disappoint, but overall I see more ways for improvement than regression. After reading this article….I might be more worried about the starting pitching than before. LOL. The bullpen this year is going to save this team a bunch of runs. I’m 90% sure of that. I’m just not sure that the starters can be much better than last year. But even if that is the most likely scenario…I think that still gets them around your win total.
Also, when JBJ is in the opening day starting lineup in CF…….what am I supposed to do? Find a new team to root for? The rangers should be fun this year. 2.5 days and counting!
If that's the straw that breaks the camel's back, I'm not sure what to say.
Oh it’s fine. So you are predicting 73 wins. Where is that in the central division in your predictions? 4th?
You'll see Thursday...
Now thats how u do a tease.
The big question I'm asking myself about JBJ is: will I be able to persuade myself to root against somebody in a Royals uniform? I know that's probably what's best for the team but I have 54 years of conditioning pushing me in the opposite direction! It's not as if he's going to be a part of any possible future success, if there is any.
I think we all (myself included) might be overstating how bad the rotation can be in terms of the end result for the team. The 2021 team won 74 games with a rotation of Mike Minor, Brad Keller, Kris Bubic, Bad Brady Singer, Carlos Hernandez and Daniel Lynch. Danny Duffy threw 61 innings before he got hurt. Oh and they didn't hit either.
They won 74 games because of the back of the bullpen was kind of nails. I think a good bullpen can cover up a bad rotation enough to make a team respectably bad instead of horrifically bad.
David, I couldn't help but chuckle a little! If you really think those are the only things that can go wrong then you're the world's most incurable optimist. No, Murphy's law doesn't apply to all baseball teams and all ballplayers but it certainly applies to some of them, especially those with a firmly established tradition of submediocrity.
What else could go wrong? Well, let's see...
Last season could be their best season for the next 5 years. Hell, they could even rehire Matheny and the old pitching coach whose name I won't mention! (Yeah, I know. That's never gonna happen. Right?) The list could go on forever....
I mean, I obviously don't think there isn't more that can go wrong. I don't want to write 5500 words and I also wasn't going to put things in like Bobby Witt retires or something that isn't even remotely realistic.
Yes, I was just having a little fun. I realize that you had to stay in the realm of things that were at least reasonably possible.
But I'll also point out that after you've experienced 54 seasons of Royals baseball with only two championships to show for it I can promise that your perspective will have changed. A lot. A whole lot.
75 + wins = a successful season, and by that I mean sufficient success for ownership to go out and spend some $ to plug some holes. < 65 wins is a disaster. Low 70s seems about right.
I agree that 75+ is an automatic successful year, but I think that it can be successful with less depending on how they get there. I'm going to be screaming pretty loud next year if they don't spend regardless, though.
David, this was a fun article to read. Thanks, Buddy.
Thanks, Mark!
I look at the talent on this team and just don't see much. Pasquintino will hit but I really don't see anyone else hitting. I'm not that high on Witt because of his strikeouts and lack of walks and his defense. Sure. He'll probably hit a few more home runs and maybe steal a few more bases but because of his strikeout to walk ratio I just don't care for him that much. I hope I'm wrong. I'm not high on Melendez either. No defense and until he changes that batting stance I just don't see him hitting. I think the rotation is bottom ten in the league and I haven't seen enough from the bullpen to think they'll be any better. Until they stop using 5 or 6 pitchers a game and cut that down to one starter and maybe two relievers they will not improve. Use too many pitchers one will probably get lit up. I think they're looking at 90+ losses. This team still looks like a Dayton Moore team
Ouch! Jackson - the season hasn't started yet - this maybe your last chance for unabashed optimism lol. I'm not going to drastically disagree with anything you said but I think I slightly disagree with a lot. A few more homeruns and steals by Witt can go a long way. Melendez, imo, will be a bit better - not sure if he's an All-Star. Rotation is probably bottom half. And it 'kinda' looks like a Dayton Moore team - but hey, he's been gone less than a year.
One thing is for sure; I would've felt better rolling out this team last year than the one that we did.
It pretty much the same team they ended the year with. The majority of the young guys they brought up last year with the exception of pasquintino stunk. Massey shows some pop but like Witt he strikes out a lot. The outfield. Especially with Melendez in it looks bad offensively. Center and right look ok defensively but so far none of them have shown they can hit. Left field with Melendez looks bad both offensively and on defense. The starting pitching is going to hinge on whether or not most of them can improve. Singer had a good year but he has to repeat. Keller has to rebound and bubic and lynch have to start getting better. They aren't kids anymore. They're 26. 27 years old. They should be going into their prime. You can't build a staff with greinke. With the shift gone I think he finally shows his age. As far as the bullpen goes I haven't seen anything this year that shows much improvement. Piccolo is just an extention of Moore. He maybe signed a few more guys than usual but they were still then same kind of retreads that Moore used to sign. A bunch of 30+ guys who haven't done anything for 2 or 3 years. Look. I'm getting tired of being so negative. I want them to win. I've been watching them since 76 and I've seen a lot of good talent over the years and this team doesn't have that much. I'm just frustrated. They can't seem to draft or develop talent at all like they use to and they did very little to address that issue
Great article. I kind of believe in the old 'the harder I work, the luckier I get' mantra. I think most on here would agree that our Royal's bad luck has often been the result of lack of work, inefficient work (never mistake action alone for progress) or just bad work in general that is attributable to ownership, management or combinations of the two.
I feel we've crossed a bridge on that front; I'm 95% optimistic that even if we've haven't hit ringers with new ownership and management, we are better than we were. So I'm gonna presume that we will have better 'luck' than in the past and that we'll have some good stuff and some bad but mostly good. With that has my foundational belief, it sure seems like we are one legitimate starter away from .500 ball.
We've a boon of NRI's who balled out, just sent a couple of great pitchers down and we're still a man over on the roster... is there a deal in the works Lesky???
I completely agree that the leadership gives them more of a chance to be "lucky" than previous leadership. And I'm pretty optimistic on that front. Smart leaders can help to gain a win or two just from being smart.
I honestly don't know about a deal, though it wouldn't surprise me. I wonder if Jonathan Heasley played himself off the 40-man entirely, though, with his spring.
Good catch on Heasley. I'm hoping we're both right now!
I think it might be tough to move on from depth, no matter how much it's struggled, in the rotation, but we'll see.
This season will be the trailer. And 2024 will be the MOVIE
Say it with me Royals Fans
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
Brady Singer Was Not A One Hit Wonder
David - last year BWJ's OB% was a paltry .294, which was a big part of the reason his WAR was only 0.9. Do you genuinely see either of those numbers improving this year, and if so why?
His bWAR was 0.9. His fWAR was 2.3. There are a number of reasons for the difference, but it's really just methodology. His offensive bWAR, though, was 3.3 last season. He lost a lot with his defense there.
But do I see the OBP improving? I don't know if it will or won't, but I know his walk rate in AA was 9.0% and 9.1% in AAA before it dropped to 4.7% as a rookie. What I found interesting is that the percentage of pitches he swung at outside the zone was in line with Julio Rodriguez, who had a 7.1% walk rate. It wasn't far from Trea Turner, who had a 6.4% walk rate. AJ Pollock was also in that ballpark and his walk rate was 6.1%. I think there's a chance the low walk rate will just naturally come up even without being more selective. He needs to take more pitches, but his whiff rate and chase rate weren't nearly as bad as many seem to believe.
So if he can hit .270, which I think is reasonable, and if he can carry a still below average walk rate of even 6%, suddenly, his OBP is .321 without anything crazy even happening.
Thank you for your extremely thoughtful reply. I appreciate it.
To me the wide variance between the fangraphs WAR and the baseball reference WAR indicates that there's still a lot of subjectivity in those numbers. A lot of imprecision, if you will. "Disagreement about methodology" strikes me as "we're still not sure exactly how to measure this beyond the pure counting numbers, or what weights to assign to all the variables, or even what variables are genuinely relevant."
Your point about his walk rate seems to me a strong one. He "SHOULD" be able to improve it. Whether he actually will or not remains to be seen. I certainly hope you're right about it!
One additional thought on BWJ's walk rate: if he cranks up the power this year as you think he will, his walk rate should improve as opponents start pitching around him.
Of course that also depends on who's hitting behind him and what kind of season he's having. That's another one of those zillion variables that appears impossible to include (and to weight properly) in any WAR or "AAV" type of calculations. How many "extra" hittable pitches did Roger Maris see in 1961 because Mickey Mantle was batting behind him? No way to know for sure and there's no algorithm that will answer that question.
That's absolutely true. If he hits more, he'll be pitched around more, though he'll likely hit in front of one of Salvy, Melendez or Vinnie, so we'll see about that.
David—not sure if you covered this and perhaps there’s a reason if not but…
Seems like most of the spring training buzz was about positional players. Haven’t heard a ton of updates (from maybe anyone?) on our once-highly-rated pitching prospects like Marsh, Bowlan, Lacy, Veneziano, the guys we got back from the Benny trade, etc.
Did any of them participate in Spring Training and generate any buzz to the point that any of those guys could impact the upcoming season?
The big reason we didn’t hear much, I think, is that there’s one beat writer for this team right now and she spent most of her time with the big league club. Bowlan pitched twice (I think) and Marsh once. Lacy is there but I’ve heard NOTHING on him. Most of the others have basically been on the back fields and this is one area the lack of coverage is really hurting.
Makes sense. So the silence doesn’t automatically mean none of those guys are looking like they possibly could have figured something out this off-season and could contribute. Here’s to hoping.
The farm’s top end pitching is probably one of the most important storylines for this organization’s new leadership this season. But I think I’m recalling correctly that the leadership of the minors didn’t see a ton of overhaul.
Yeah, I wouldn't read too much into the silence. It's just a lack of coverage, which sucks.
They didn't do much in the minors, but I've heard some really interesting things about how much more open they are now to other things and I wonder a little if they weren't hamstrung organizationally by what was coming from the top. I agree it's one of the most important things to watch, especially given that they are banking on a change in the big leagues resonating organizationally. They need to be right.
I'd settle for Asa Lacy being able to get within a couple of area codes of the strike zone!
Just became a paid subscriber. I got a raise this morning ( not bragging - it was very much the standard corporate "we're giving you as little extra as possible" type of deal ), & you benefit! Wheeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!
Thank you so much! I can finally stop badgering your boss now.
Ha ha...I came back because I forgot to mention that you can keep my name outta the drawing for Opening Day tickets. I can't go, anyway, so we might as well make the odds better for everyone else.
Did you mention to them that you've been educated by David Lesky and so you're now worth at least twice as much????
I brought it up, & she said "Lesky? That jerk owes me 20 bucks!!!!!"