I'm glad that Lyles looks as if he's going to be a good innings-eater but we all know he's extremely unlikely to be anything more than that. Speaking of pitching....
At The Athletic Eno Sarris and Fabian Ardnaya posted an excellent article on the newest fashionable pitch in MLB: the sweeper. They did it very nice job of pointing out both the advantages and drawbacks to the pitch, as well as going into what other pitches are needed in order to make it more effective.
For example, it's nearly useless against lefty hitters for righty pitchers - thus virtually necessitating the use of a changeup in those situations. (No surprise there!) If you have access to The Athletic, I highly recommend this article!
Yeah, it was a great article. I'll read anything about pitching that Eno writes. I think it's just like anything. If used correctly, it can be great. If used incorrectly, it likely won't be. I just like that the Royals are teaching it now.
I'm totally with you about Eno and about the Royals teaching that pitch. My main question now is whether Royals pitchers can develop and effectively utilize the other pitches that are necessary to complement it.
I think they have the staff to do it. And what I appreciate maybe even more than that is that they have a staff that's willing to let a player explore outside their teaching as well. They know they don't have every answer and want players to find the answers they don't necessarily have.
Not sure where to go today. this team, woof. I don’t want to beat a dead horse with Dozier so I guess I’ll beat the dead horse with Melendez. Glad the defense metrics are looking good for him. I’m still quite hesitant behind the plate defensive numbers but better is better than worse. He’s athletic enough to be an average outfielder given the time. Offense……we are starting to get to the point that it’s getting tough to hear about “bad luck”….make more contact dude. But I generally agree….the ability is definitely in there to be much better. The same question I keep coming back too is what is the plan? Why are we saying Bobby, you get SS for the entire year to see what you are but then turn around and NOT do that with Melendez? I don’t feel like they have a plan yet. I don’t like Witt at SS…but I’m actually ok with it because you at least have a plan. If you feel like you won’t be able to sign Melendez and will need to trade him why are you jacking him around at multiple positions? How bout keep him at one and let him get comfortable. Its frustrating. They have about 8 catchers on the depth chart they could bring up as the backup catcher. Just let him be the outfielder. I don’t understand the plan here. I’m getting to the point that I’m ready for anyone associated with the old regime to be out. It won’t happen…and I can listen to the argument this isn’t JJ’s fault….but I can’t sit here and watch this and not think he didn’t have anything to do with this product. Frustration is back. Lol
Every day we get closer to it not being early, but I always look at 110-125 plate appearances for a hitter. People generally don't have that patience, but there is a lot of noise this early. Look at Melendez as an example. He's hitting .170/.290/.302. That's awful. Let's say he goes 9 for 25 with a double, four home runs and four walks over his next, oh let's say, seven games. That puts his season line at .231/.333/.487. I picked those numbers because he had that seven-game stretch last season at one point. If you can raise your OPS by 200+ points in a week's time with a very good but not superhuman week, it's still early.
The difference between Melendez and Witt is that I don't think they see Melendez as part of the long-term plan so they're not as concerned about him. I agree he's likely to be a guy who is moved, but I don't agree with handling him that way because of it. I think they do need to let him get comfortable in the outfield, bring up Fermin, let MJ be the emergency catcher and be done with one of the bottom-feeders on the roster. We'll see if that ever happens. I think it certainly helps the odds that he's looked pretty solid in the outfield.
But I think that’s my main issue with this front office. Why does it matter if Melendez isn’t part of the long-term plan? Chances are neither are signing long term with you at this point. Why are you not treating them the same? Stick Melendez in the OF and say “go, be a mlb ball player everyday”. Even if you know you are going to have to trade him you should want all your commodities to perform as well as possible. Not jacking them around from position to position. To be fair, i guess they did do that with Bobby Witt last year between third and SS. So maybe they are being more consistent in that than I give them credit for.
Hey, I agree with that. If that's why they're not as careful with him, then that's bad. I also think they're pretty player friendly and that can be to a fault sometimes. Melendez likes to catch and it gives them an extra roster spot (which they're using poorly, but that's another issue) so they're good with it. I'm skeptical of the defensive numbers behind the plate, but in the small sample, I think the eye test matches at least. Only one wild pitch and no passed balls when that was a HUGE weakness for him last year.
It seems pretty obvious to me - a catcher is a lot more valuable than a right fielder. They don't want to turn him into an above-average everyday RF if they can market him as a team's future star C, which is what he could be when his bat gets back to where we expect it to be, especially if he's improved behind the plate.
But if they're wanting to market him as a catcher, shouldn't he catch more? I buy that they'd want to market him that way if they're moving him, but he's only caught 39 innings. Maybe this'll change when Waters is back, but if that's the case, DH Salvy and catch MJ more.
Agree. I like Melendez, want it to work out. But we are also jerking around a guy who is a .4 WAR player for his 500 plate appearances. Not enough plate appearances and time I get, but can we just let him be an above average hitter in one spot first? Catcher or OF…I don’t really care. But let’s make a decision here fellas.
This is only vaguely related, but I think it's important to consider the context of WAR if you're talking about only offense or defense. Melendez, for example, has a career bWAR of 0.4, but his career offensive bWAR is 1.8. Does the penalty for defense matter if he's improved? I don't personally think so. It doesn't change your argument at all, which I think makes perfect sense, but I've been thinking about this a lot lately.
It kind of started in my head thinking about Nicky Lopez vs. Hunter Dozier. It's super easy to say that Dozier has been worth -1.4 bWAR over the last year plus and that Lopez is a better player because he's been dead even on bWAR at 0.0. But if you're talking about their bats, the defense is irrelevant and suddenly Dozier's .230/.283/.375 is more appetizing than Lopez's .225/.285/.278.
I'm not singling you out as much as this reminded me that I was thinking about this very thing the other day.
Remember when we were told the pitching was just a development problem at the major league level and nothing else. Now we don’t even know who will replace Bubic because every minor league pitcher has an era over 6 down on the farm. Feelin feisty today!
Heasley leads all Royals minor leaguers with 12.1 innings. You know why relievers are so fickle? Because a small sample can skew an entire season with them.
Drew Parrish has pitched well in 10 innings with 13 strikeouts and six hits allowed. I'm not sure I buy it, but that's an improvement. Austin Cox has 13 strikeouts in 9.1 innings. I'm worried about Heasley because I don't think he's very good, not because he's been terrible in 12 innings. I'm worried about Kowar because I'm not sure his fastball is usable even at 99, not because he's been terrible in 7.2 innings.
Andrew Hoffman has been a success story so far with 11 strikeouts in nine innings. Anthony Veneziano looks outstanding in AA. Noah Cameron has 14 strikeouts in nine innings in high-A. Chandler Champlain has gotten rave reviews and has 13 strikeouts without a walk in 9.2 innings. David Sandlin is going to have to move up soon. He has 17 strikeouts in 9.2 innings. The upper-level rotation depth is a problem. We knew that. But I don't think I'd pin that on the current development team. There are a lot of good things happening actually.
Does there come a point this season when our first priority is to win rather than make sure everyone gets a “turn” at numerous positions? If we want to win, Witt at 3rd, Nicky at SS, Massey at 2nd and Vinnie at first. Pick an outfield spot for Olivares and MJ and leave them there. When Waters returns, he has to earn CF, not just have it handed to him
The short answer is probably no. But I also don't think anyone is getting a "turn" at a position necessarily. They want to evaluate Witt at shortstop with Alguacil coaching him and him not bouncing back and forth. Nicky is a utility guy. He doesn't need to be seen at any particular spot. Massey would be playing more if he didn't look entirely lost at the plate and Vinnie has started at first in 80% of the games he's played.
As for the outfield, I get the impression from people I've talked to that Waters will be in a corner when he comes back and the likely player to lose his job in that situation is Edward Olivares, who has not ingratiated himself defensively to the staff. It's not that Waters won't play center, but that's Isbel's spot now.
We have 3 infielders that cannot hit. Dozier at 153, Mazsey at 143, and Eaton at 045. Most everyone wants to see what Garcia, Taylor, and Loftin can do with the big club, I personally would like to two or maybe all three switched out and let's let them play and see what they can do. They certainly can't be any worse, can they?
I wouldn't say Massey or Eaton can't hit. I'd say they're struggling. But both could absolutely use a reset. I also think Eaton is a nice bench piece regardless (and not really an infielder either).
I will say that there comes a point, and this team is at it, where the development of guys in the minors matters more than what's happening in the big leagues. As long as the plan is to get those three up, I'm fine with them getting more time. It's not like any have much experience in AAA.
I see it through the lens of time... Massey and Eaton are young, full of potential...Dozier has played his best baseball and there is nothing left...see ya!
I may be wrong, but I can't think of anyone other than Pablo Sandoval who was released with more than two years to go on a deal. It just doesn't happen too often, so I'm not surprised they didn't make a move.
Hmm...that one gets tricky. The Padres traded him but ate the salary. And they also got back a prospect for him. The Red Sox owed him next to nothing. Could go either way, but fair point.
Just doing a little search...man, there are a lot of historically bad contracts out there.... the money is spent...keeping Dozier is like continuing to wear those shoes that are two sizes too small because you paid a lot of money for them...stop the self flagellation... if I have to watch him swing and miss another low and outside pitch I just may explode!
It’s a sunk cost. Teams just don’t give up on that so early typically. The Royals historically have waited until about June. Hopefully they don’t wait so long.
Wonder if the Royals would start padding the budget with items marked: "slippage" and "breakage," like they're a grocery or other retailer. Chalk Dozier's contract up to those things... No one likes to just lose money, but if they can't trade Dozier can they at least bench him?
He's definitely not an every day guy already. Including tonight, he's only started in three of the last seven and hasn't hit higher than sixth in any of those games. I don't think Quatraro is a fan of having bench guys sit for too long, based on what we've seen, so at least they've moved him out of being a full-on regular.
Growing up in Brooklyn, I was a very nominal Mets fan. It's kind of in my DNA to root for the underdog. So #LetsGoRoyals!
But it is so difficult to watch games like last night's...but I guess, that's what I get.
David, I do hope they move Dozier sooner than later. I like Lyles and maybe this whole team just feels too new and sort of spooked by everything. Like they don't trust each other or play as a team quite yet.
I’m glad MJ is playing well defensively in RF but should he be getting more looks behind the plate if his catching ability has improved? With his offensive numbers theres no doubt he’d be a valuable everyday catcher but I don’t know if those numbers translate to an everyday corner outfielder. Sure would make moving Salvy easier. If we’re dead set on keeping salvy though I think it’s in our best interest to find a trade partner for Melendez, especially if he showing promise at catcher.
I would be pretty surprised if Melendez is a long-term Royal. But this isn't the right time to move him, both due to service time and where he is in his career. I'll also be interested to see how much he catches once Drew Waters is back.
I'm glad that Lyles looks as if he's going to be a good innings-eater but we all know he's extremely unlikely to be anything more than that. Speaking of pitching....
At The Athletic Eno Sarris and Fabian Ardnaya posted an excellent article on the newest fashionable pitch in MLB: the sweeper. They did it very nice job of pointing out both the advantages and drawbacks to the pitch, as well as going into what other pitches are needed in order to make it more effective.
For example, it's nearly useless against lefty hitters for righty pitchers - thus virtually necessitating the use of a changeup in those situations. (No surprise there!) If you have access to The Athletic, I highly recommend this article!
Yeah, it was a great article. I'll read anything about pitching that Eno writes. I think it's just like anything. If used correctly, it can be great. If used incorrectly, it likely won't be. I just like that the Royals are teaching it now.
I'm totally with you about Eno and about the Royals teaching that pitch. My main question now is whether Royals pitchers can develop and effectively utilize the other pitches that are necessary to complement it.
I think they have the staff to do it. And what I appreciate maybe even more than that is that they have a staff that's willing to let a player explore outside their teaching as well. They know they don't have every answer and want players to find the answers they don't necessarily have.
Not sure where to go today. this team, woof. I don’t want to beat a dead horse with Dozier so I guess I’ll beat the dead horse with Melendez. Glad the defense metrics are looking good for him. I’m still quite hesitant behind the plate defensive numbers but better is better than worse. He’s athletic enough to be an average outfielder given the time. Offense……we are starting to get to the point that it’s getting tough to hear about “bad luck”….make more contact dude. But I generally agree….the ability is definitely in there to be much better. The same question I keep coming back too is what is the plan? Why are we saying Bobby, you get SS for the entire year to see what you are but then turn around and NOT do that with Melendez? I don’t feel like they have a plan yet. I don’t like Witt at SS…but I’m actually ok with it because you at least have a plan. If you feel like you won’t be able to sign Melendez and will need to trade him why are you jacking him around at multiple positions? How bout keep him at one and let him get comfortable. Its frustrating. They have about 8 catchers on the depth chart they could bring up as the backup catcher. Just let him be the outfielder. I don’t understand the plan here. I’m getting to the point that I’m ready for anyone associated with the old regime to be out. It won’t happen…and I can listen to the argument this isn’t JJ’s fault….but I can’t sit here and watch this and not think he didn’t have anything to do with this product. Frustration is back. Lol
Every day we get closer to it not being early, but I always look at 110-125 plate appearances for a hitter. People generally don't have that patience, but there is a lot of noise this early. Look at Melendez as an example. He's hitting .170/.290/.302. That's awful. Let's say he goes 9 for 25 with a double, four home runs and four walks over his next, oh let's say, seven games. That puts his season line at .231/.333/.487. I picked those numbers because he had that seven-game stretch last season at one point. If you can raise your OPS by 200+ points in a week's time with a very good but not superhuman week, it's still early.
The difference between Melendez and Witt is that I don't think they see Melendez as part of the long-term plan so they're not as concerned about him. I agree he's likely to be a guy who is moved, but I don't agree with handling him that way because of it. I think they do need to let him get comfortable in the outfield, bring up Fermin, let MJ be the emergency catcher and be done with one of the bottom-feeders on the roster. We'll see if that ever happens. I think it certainly helps the odds that he's looked pretty solid in the outfield.
But I think that’s my main issue with this front office. Why does it matter if Melendez isn’t part of the long-term plan? Chances are neither are signing long term with you at this point. Why are you not treating them the same? Stick Melendez in the OF and say “go, be a mlb ball player everyday”. Even if you know you are going to have to trade him you should want all your commodities to perform as well as possible. Not jacking them around from position to position. To be fair, i guess they did do that with Bobby Witt last year between third and SS. So maybe they are being more consistent in that than I give them credit for.
Hey, I agree with that. If that's why they're not as careful with him, then that's bad. I also think they're pretty player friendly and that can be to a fault sometimes. Melendez likes to catch and it gives them an extra roster spot (which they're using poorly, but that's another issue) so they're good with it. I'm skeptical of the defensive numbers behind the plate, but in the small sample, I think the eye test matches at least. Only one wild pitch and no passed balls when that was a HUGE weakness for him last year.
It seems pretty obvious to me - a catcher is a lot more valuable than a right fielder. They don't want to turn him into an above-average everyday RF if they can market him as a team's future star C, which is what he could be when his bat gets back to where we expect it to be, especially if he's improved behind the plate.
But if they're wanting to market him as a catcher, shouldn't he catch more? I buy that they'd want to market him that way if they're moving him, but he's only caught 39 innings. Maybe this'll change when Waters is back, but if that's the case, DH Salvy and catch MJ more.
Agree. I like Melendez, want it to work out. But we are also jerking around a guy who is a .4 WAR player for his 500 plate appearances. Not enough plate appearances and time I get, but can we just let him be an above average hitter in one spot first? Catcher or OF…I don’t really care. But let’s make a decision here fellas.
This is only vaguely related, but I think it's important to consider the context of WAR if you're talking about only offense or defense. Melendez, for example, has a career bWAR of 0.4, but his career offensive bWAR is 1.8. Does the penalty for defense matter if he's improved? I don't personally think so. It doesn't change your argument at all, which I think makes perfect sense, but I've been thinking about this a lot lately.
It kind of started in my head thinking about Nicky Lopez vs. Hunter Dozier. It's super easy to say that Dozier has been worth -1.4 bWAR over the last year plus and that Lopez is a better player because he's been dead even on bWAR at 0.0. But if you're talking about their bats, the defense is irrelevant and suddenly Dozier's .230/.283/.375 is more appetizing than Lopez's .225/.285/.278.
I'm not singling you out as much as this reminded me that I was thinking about this very thing the other day.
Remember when we were told the pitching was just a development problem at the major league level and nothing else. Now we don’t even know who will replace Bubic because every minor league pitcher has an era over 6 down on the farm. Feelin feisty today!
Heasley leads all Royals minor leaguers with 12.1 innings. You know why relievers are so fickle? Because a small sample can skew an entire season with them.
Drew Parrish has pitched well in 10 innings with 13 strikeouts and six hits allowed. I'm not sure I buy it, but that's an improvement. Austin Cox has 13 strikeouts in 9.1 innings. I'm worried about Heasley because I don't think he's very good, not because he's been terrible in 12 innings. I'm worried about Kowar because I'm not sure his fastball is usable even at 99, not because he's been terrible in 7.2 innings.
Andrew Hoffman has been a success story so far with 11 strikeouts in nine innings. Anthony Veneziano looks outstanding in AA. Noah Cameron has 14 strikeouts in nine innings in high-A. Chandler Champlain has gotten rave reviews and has 13 strikeouts without a walk in 9.2 innings. David Sandlin is going to have to move up soon. He has 17 strikeouts in 9.2 innings. The upper-level rotation depth is a problem. We knew that. But I don't think I'd pin that on the current development team. There are a lot of good things happening actually.
Just let me have this one David…..lol
I think you know I can't do that!
Amen
Does there come a point this season when our first priority is to win rather than make sure everyone gets a “turn” at numerous positions? If we want to win, Witt at 3rd, Nicky at SS, Massey at 2nd and Vinnie at first. Pick an outfield spot for Olivares and MJ and leave them there. When Waters returns, he has to earn CF, not just have it handed to him
The short answer is probably no. But I also don't think anyone is getting a "turn" at a position necessarily. They want to evaluate Witt at shortstop with Alguacil coaching him and him not bouncing back and forth. Nicky is a utility guy. He doesn't need to be seen at any particular spot. Massey would be playing more if he didn't look entirely lost at the plate and Vinnie has started at first in 80% of the games he's played.
As for the outfield, I get the impression from people I've talked to that Waters will be in a corner when he comes back and the likely player to lose his job in that situation is Edward Olivares, who has not ingratiated himself defensively to the staff. It's not that Waters won't play center, but that's Isbel's spot now.
We have 3 infielders that cannot hit. Dozier at 153, Mazsey at 143, and Eaton at 045. Most everyone wants to see what Garcia, Taylor, and Loftin can do with the big club, I personally would like to two or maybe all three switched out and let's let them play and see what they can do. They certainly can't be any worse, can they?
I wouldn't say Massey or Eaton can't hit. I'd say they're struggling. But both could absolutely use a reset. I also think Eaton is a nice bench piece regardless (and not really an infielder either).
I will say that there comes a point, and this team is at it, where the development of guys in the minors matters more than what's happening in the big leagues. As long as the plan is to get those three up, I'm fine with them getting more time. It's not like any have much experience in AAA.
I see it through the lens of time... Massey and Eaton are young, full of potential...Dozier has played his best baseball and there is nothing left...see ya!
Management did everything I wanted last off-season except the jettison of Dozier...he's done like dinner..and "he's gots to go!"
Bring up those who deserve it, use all your options to move guys around...lets go Mr. Sherman!
I may be wrong, but I can't think of anyone other than Pablo Sandoval who was released with more than two years to go on a deal. It just doesn't happen too often, so I'm not surprised they didn't make a move.
Hosmer...released with 3 years ...39 million left on the paper.
Hmm...that one gets tricky. The Padres traded him but ate the salary. And they also got back a prospect for him. The Red Sox owed him next to nothing. Could go either way, but fair point.
Just doing a little search...man, there are a lot of historically bad contracts out there.... the money is spent...keeping Dozier is like continuing to wear those shoes that are two sizes too small because you paid a lot of money for them...stop the self flagellation... if I have to watch him swing and miss another low and outside pitch I just may explode!
It’s a sunk cost. Teams just don’t give up on that so early typically. The Royals historically have waited until about June. Hopefully they don’t wait so long.
Wonder if the Royals would start padding the budget with items marked: "slippage" and "breakage," like they're a grocery or other retailer. Chalk Dozier's contract up to those things... No one likes to just lose money, but if they can't trade Dozier can they at least bench him?
He's definitely not an every day guy already. Including tonight, he's only started in three of the last seven and hasn't hit higher than sixth in any of those games. I don't think Quatraro is a fan of having bench guys sit for too long, based on what we've seen, so at least they've moved him out of being a full-on regular.
Breakup letters are hard to write. My condolences. ;-)
Growing up in Brooklyn, I was a very nominal Mets fan. It's kind of in my DNA to root for the underdog. So #LetsGoRoyals!
But it is so difficult to watch games like last night's...but I guess, that's what I get.
David, I do hope they move Dozier sooner than later. I like Lyles and maybe this whole team just feels too new and sort of spooked by everything. Like they don't trust each other or play as a team quite yet.
I’m glad MJ is playing well defensively in RF but should he be getting more looks behind the plate if his catching ability has improved? With his offensive numbers theres no doubt he’d be a valuable everyday catcher but I don’t know if those numbers translate to an everyday corner outfielder. Sure would make moving Salvy easier. If we’re dead set on keeping salvy though I think it’s in our best interest to find a trade partner for Melendez, especially if he showing promise at catcher.
I would be pretty surprised if Melendez is a long-term Royal. But this isn't the right time to move him, both due to service time and where he is in his career. I'll also be interested to see how much he catches once Drew Waters is back.
Sad thing is this article could refer to the game AND the season.