I'm not sure that MLB will be as careful as you think they will be with workloads for veteran pitchers in 2021. They didn't limit pitchers after work stoppages in the past. Nor do I recall a situation where a pitcher with a history of pitching x number of innings was hurt with a non throwing injury in June, came back the next year, and the team said, "Hold up Sparky, we're only gonna let you start 20 games this year since you only started 15 last year. If you count the second extended Spring Training, they got in roughly half a season last year. For a veteran pitcher, I'm not sure how this doesn't mean they are coming off a year with less wear and tear than usual.
The Royals do have issues with only one of their starters having any history of pitching 200 IP, and teams do certainly make an understandable effort to limit increases in IP from a young pitchers from one year to the next. If I'm them, I go with a 6 man rotation and I'm quick to pull Singer and Bubic especially before they run up high pitch counts. I'm also using the additional roster spot on a bullpen arm especially given the positional versatility of Whit, Dozier, etc. If Bubic and Singer pitched 150 innings in 2019 roughly, I would limit them to around that number. I'd want to have security around before I told Singer that he was only going to start 20 games in 2021. He would have a hard time not punching the person telling him that in the nose... These guys are competitors, they want to play. Shane Bieber will take the ball every 5th day for 162 games.
The other question I have is how much can you really save a guy like Lynch so he's still available in September. If he starts in the minors, he's still getting the same workload. He's still going out there every 5-6 day and throwing at 100%. He's never pitched even 100 innings in a year.... Carlos Hernandez has never pitched more than 80. Maybe you keep them in the pen, maybe you put Duffy and or Junis in the pen with the idea or bringing them back to the rotation later in the year.
IDK, it is unprecedented, but everyone is balancing winning, both now and in the future, not blowing out precious arms, and the understandable desire for a professional pitcher to go out and compete at what he's good at as he stands to make a ton of money if he succeeds. Their window is short and uncertain, even in the best of circumstances.
On a final note, Nolan Ryan is off somewhere muttering under his breath about what a bunch of weanies these kids are.
Pretty much every interview with any manager or front office person who touches on this talks about managing workload, so I think it's something you're going to see around the league. You mentioned work stoppages, but no season has ever had as few games as 2020. And you mentioned injuries, but no team has ever had every single pitcher coming off an injury. And even so, you see guys held back all the time in years following injuries.
The six-man rotation is definitely a possibility as is potentially piggybacking with some of the depth they have later in the season, but as much as these guys want the ball, the Royals and every other team has too much invested in some of them to let them dictate how they're used. For the Royals specifically, a decision to throw Singer and Bubic and Lynch and all of them to the point that they could find themselves hurt for future years is one that will absolutely cost jobs. People don't want to lose their jobs.
I think the key to "saving" guys is actually helped a bit by the delay of the AAA season into May. We'll see all of the young arms at the alternate site continuing to ramp up and throw their 2, 3, 4 innings, etc. while they await the start of the minor league season. And I would assume turns will be skipped regularly.
But like you say, it's all unprecedented. Maybe it's something that won't even really be noticed, but as I said at the top, I haven't heard a single interview where this has been brought up with people in all organizations that didn't include them talking about needing a plan to keep guys healthy both for this season and beyond, so it will play a big role this season.
6 man rotations may become the norm, at least for this season. Lots of teams are considering it. I wish MLB would have expanded the rosters to 28. Relying heavily on the bullpen to limit SP pitch counts combined with a 6 man rotatation seems like the way to go about it.
I agree about roster expansion. I'm also not sure what the right way to do it would be, but options are a big issue this season, so I feel like there should be some sort of exemption this year. Teams would absolutely abuse it, but if it's about player health, I feel like it would at least be worthwhile.
I'm not sure that MLB will be as careful as you think they will be with workloads for veteran pitchers in 2021. They didn't limit pitchers after work stoppages in the past. Nor do I recall a situation where a pitcher with a history of pitching x number of innings was hurt with a non throwing injury in June, came back the next year, and the team said, "Hold up Sparky, we're only gonna let you start 20 games this year since you only started 15 last year. If you count the second extended Spring Training, they got in roughly half a season last year. For a veteran pitcher, I'm not sure how this doesn't mean they are coming off a year with less wear and tear than usual.
The Royals do have issues with only one of their starters having any history of pitching 200 IP, and teams do certainly make an understandable effort to limit increases in IP from a young pitchers from one year to the next. If I'm them, I go with a 6 man rotation and I'm quick to pull Singer and Bubic especially before they run up high pitch counts. I'm also using the additional roster spot on a bullpen arm especially given the positional versatility of Whit, Dozier, etc. If Bubic and Singer pitched 150 innings in 2019 roughly, I would limit them to around that number. I'd want to have security around before I told Singer that he was only going to start 20 games in 2021. He would have a hard time not punching the person telling him that in the nose... These guys are competitors, they want to play. Shane Bieber will take the ball every 5th day for 162 games.
The other question I have is how much can you really save a guy like Lynch so he's still available in September. If he starts in the minors, he's still getting the same workload. He's still going out there every 5-6 day and throwing at 100%. He's never pitched even 100 innings in a year.... Carlos Hernandez has never pitched more than 80. Maybe you keep them in the pen, maybe you put Duffy and or Junis in the pen with the idea or bringing them back to the rotation later in the year.
IDK, it is unprecedented, but everyone is balancing winning, both now and in the future, not blowing out precious arms, and the understandable desire for a professional pitcher to go out and compete at what he's good at as he stands to make a ton of money if he succeeds. Their window is short and uncertain, even in the best of circumstances.
On a final note, Nolan Ryan is off somewhere muttering under his breath about what a bunch of weanies these kids are.
Pretty much every interview with any manager or front office person who touches on this talks about managing workload, so I think it's something you're going to see around the league. You mentioned work stoppages, but no season has ever had as few games as 2020. And you mentioned injuries, but no team has ever had every single pitcher coming off an injury. And even so, you see guys held back all the time in years following injuries.
The six-man rotation is definitely a possibility as is potentially piggybacking with some of the depth they have later in the season, but as much as these guys want the ball, the Royals and every other team has too much invested in some of them to let them dictate how they're used. For the Royals specifically, a decision to throw Singer and Bubic and Lynch and all of them to the point that they could find themselves hurt for future years is one that will absolutely cost jobs. People don't want to lose their jobs.
I think the key to "saving" guys is actually helped a bit by the delay of the AAA season into May. We'll see all of the young arms at the alternate site continuing to ramp up and throw their 2, 3, 4 innings, etc. while they await the start of the minor league season. And I would assume turns will be skipped regularly.
But like you say, it's all unprecedented. Maybe it's something that won't even really be noticed, but as I said at the top, I haven't heard a single interview where this has been brought up with people in all organizations that didn't include them talking about needing a plan to keep guys healthy both for this season and beyond, so it will play a big role this season.
All good points....
6 man rotations may become the norm, at least for this season. Lots of teams are considering it. I wish MLB would have expanded the rosters to 28. Relying heavily on the bullpen to limit SP pitch counts combined with a 6 man rotatation seems like the way to go about it.
I agree about roster expansion. I'm also not sure what the right way to do it would be, but options are a big issue this season, so I feel like there should be some sort of exemption this year. Teams would absolutely abuse it, but if it's about player health, I feel like it would at least be worthwhile.