Where Are the Innings Coming From?

Nobody threw much in 2020. It's going to be a big challenge to find that sweet spot between used enough and overused.

If I have to see another article start with, “the 2020 season was like nothing we’ve ever seen before,” I might explode. But for real, though, the 2020 season was like nothing we’ve ever seen before, and it’s not just the pandemic that will continue to impact the game into the 2021 season. You’ve probably heard me talk about the six through 10 in a rotation more times than you can count, but the reality is that teams are going to need way more pitching than ever before. 

We don’t have the most accurate count on alternate site and Summer Camp innings for these guys, but below is a list of the number of innings thrown in competition in 2019 compared to what they threw in 2020 for pitchers the Royals are likely thinking will be part of the 2021 team at some point:

Those were sorted by 2020 innings, by the way. 

I may have missed an arm or two, but you get the idea. Like I said, this doesn’t alternate site or Summer Camp so you can add a handful of 2020 innings for the big leaguers on here and probably more than a handful for the guys who spent a lot of time at the alternate site, but there are some pretty big numbers in that right column. While I don’t agree with everything about the idea that guys can’t jump innings from season to season, I do think that teams will be careful with most pitchers, especially those with big futures and/or big contracts.

So looking at the above list, the Royals will likely be very careful with the young guys. So looking at young starters, that means Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Carlos Hernandez, Asa Lacy, Austin Cox, etc. I think they’ll be careful enough with Brad Keller but sort of let him dictate when they need to back off him a bit. I don’t think they’ll worry too much about riding Mike Minor and Danny Duffy hard, but Duffy hasn’t been the picture of health in his career, so he might regulate his innings with a trip to the injured list that has become so common for him. Or he might get pushed to the bullpen naturally. 

The bullpen is where I think there’ll be some interesting moves to be made for this team, and it’s not an area too many are talking about. Options are going to be the name of the game this season. Among Royals pitchers who are likely ticketed for work in the bullpen, Scott Barlow, Scott Blewett, Ronald Bolaños, Hernandez, Jakob Junis, Richard Lovelady, Jake Newberry, Josh Staumont, Angel Zerpa, Kyle Zimmer and Tyler Zuber all have options. Brad Brach, Wade Davis, Jesse Hahn and Greg Holland do not.

Of course, all the prospects who have yet to be added to the 40-man roster will have three options remaining once they are added, so you can add a handful of possibilities like Jonathan Bowlan, Cox, Kowar, Lacy and Lynch, but of course, you add someone and you likely have to take someone off, assuming they’re playing with a full roster. 

Without putting an exact innings cap on any one pitcher, my guess is they won’t allow any of the young arms to make more than 20-22 starts, which should be about 120 innings or so. That means you can pencil in Singer and Bubic for roughly 240 innings. They’ll probably be lucky to get 150 innings from Duffy. Keller, I think, could be good for 175 or so and maybe you’re looking at 180-190 for Minor. Let’s go on the high side and say 190. That’s about 750 innings for the main rotation pieces and probably around 120 starts. That covers a bit more than half the innings they’ll need in 2021. 

What can be expected from the bullpen? 

I think they’ll be careful with Barlow, Staumont and Zimmer for sure. Maybe 50 innings apiece, assuming health, is what I’d guess for them. Holland is probably there too and I think if you get more than 35-40 out of Hahn, you’re probably pretty happy. Junis is a guy who will bounce a little between both the bullpen and the rotation, so maybe you can get 100 innings from him with eight to 10 coming from starts. 

Those 10 pitchers now have us to a bit under 1,000 innings. And this is where the roster magic starts to happen. And this is also part of why I think the Royals went out and got Wade Davis and Brad Brach and even Ervin Santana, who didn’t really pitch all that much in 2019 either due to ineffectiveness. I’m starting to believe that Brach and Davis are going to break camp with the big club. Someone like Zuber, who had his moments at least last year, may not. 

At best you’re looking at 130 starts from the six we’ve already talked about, but that’s assuming picture perfect health. Realistically, the number is probably closer to 115 and probably around 625 nnings. That leaves 47 starts and 225-275 innings. Hernandez, Lynch, Cox, Kowar and Lacy can fill those probably with maybe some help from someone like Bolaños. But there’s a chunk of bullpen innings too. 

The 2019 Royals bullpen threw 565 innings. I’ve got them penciled in for probably 350 of those from players we feel pretty good about being on the team. In a bad bullpen in 2019, they got 275 innings from five pitchers and had to get 290 from others. And it got ugly. That’s why the depth is so important this season. Zuber can give them 40-50 innings at some point. So can Richard Lovelady. That’s better depth than anything we’ve seen in the past few years. 

They can debut pitchers in the bullpen. Kowar and Lynch have dominant pitches that could play up even more in a short relief role. Imagine seeing Keller for six with his stuff and then being forced to deal with a lanky lefty throwing 98 for two more innings. That could really work. 

There are other ways to skin this cat, but I really think they end up backing off guys for periods of time either with trips to the bullpen for the starters or utilizing the options they have for relievers. It’ll be tough for guys like Holland and Hahn out of the bullpen because they can’t be sent down, so they might have a hamstring flair up randomly here and there (though with both, they’ve spent time on the IL recently enough that it could be a real injury). It’ll be a very difficult task for Mike Matheny and Dayton Moore to navigate, but an important one as pushing through 2021 could have lasting impacts well beyond this upcoming season. 

Whatever they choose to do, the Royals young pitching talent puts them in a better position than most, in my opinion. Yes, it’s more volatile, but not many teams have as much upside in their six through 10 (and nine through 14 in the bullpen) as this team. This could be a season of real opportunity with needing so much depth that pitchers who likely wouldn’t typically get a chance getting one in 2021. 2020 was weird, but 2021 isn’t exactly going to be normal.