Why Adam Frazier? And What's Next?

The Royals have now signed seven big league deals in free agency this winter, but this one is the most confusing to me.

Maybe we should have seen it coming. JJ Picollo and Royals brass haven’t been shy about telling the world they were looking for a left-handed hitting infielder. So when the news came out on Saturday morning that they had reached a deal with Adam Frazier for $2 million (with a mutual option that includes a $2.5 million option), why did that catch me off guard? I do know why, and it’s because I am simply not a fan of Frazier as a player, which I’ll get to here shortly, but shame on me for not seeing it coming.

In Frazier, the Royals signed a player who was once an All-Star. He hit .305/.368/.411 in that season and then started the next one hitting .324/.388/.448. It appeared he’d figured it out and was entering his next stage as a high-average second baseman. But he was traded from the Pirates to the Padres that year and hit just .267/.327/.335 down the stretch in San Diego. Then he hit just .238/.301/.311 for Seattle the next year. And last year, he hit a more respectable .240/.300/.396, which was good for a wRC+ of 93.

What he does well is he makes contact. Last year was a career-high swinging strike rate and it was just 8.6 percent. To put that into context, the worst number of his career ranked 49th in baseball out of 168 players with 450 or more plate appearances. Among players with 200 or more plate appearances on the Royals, only Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia and Kyle Isbel swung and missed less than Frazier last year. And that as his worst year. Now, you could argue that swinging and missing more than ever in your age-31 season isn’t exactly the best indicator of success, but I’m telling you what he does well.

He also rated as a good base runner, at least by Frangraphs metrics with a BsR of 2.1 If you’re unfamiliar with BsR, it’s a metric that looks at stolen bases, caught stealings and other plays like taking like the extra base and turns it into runs above or below average. So being at 2.1 is good. That would have tied him at third on the Royals with Michael Massey and behind only Isbel and some guy named Bobby Witt Jr. He’s not especially fast, though, with a sprint speed ranking him in the 31st percentile, and as with the swinging strike rate, that speed heading into an age-32 season seems like it could be an issue, but, again, I’m telling you what he does well. Or at least what he did well in 2023 because it was the first year since 2019 that he actually rated above average as a runner.

You’re getting the idea, right? I just don’t think he’s very good. Let’s add in his defense. He was -4 DRS at second for Baltimore last year and -15 OAA. There are a lot of DRS/OAA discrepancies that make it easy to cherry-pick the one you want to use, but when they’re both below average, it’s easy to be disappointed. That said, he has been a very good second base defender in the past. I mentioned age a couple of times and his lack of foot speed, but I’m willing to think that last year could have been an aberration. That said, those numbers are brutal.

And Fraizer can also put on a different glove and stand in the outfield. He actually rated exceptionally well in a minuscule sample last year and has generally rated well there his whole career. Of course, he’s played fewer than 300 innings out there over the last three seasons, so I’m not sure that’s a plan you want to enact if you don’t have to. So I guess my next point is that he’s not clearly versatile. He’s a second baseman who can handle a corner outfield spot in a pinch, but he’s a second baseman.

For $2 million in 2024, it’s easy to see him as a backup. That’s what they gave Garrett Hampson at least, and he’s clearly seen as a depth piece and not someone to play every day. But the fit just doesn’t make sense to me. And it’s mostly because they already have a left-handed hitting second baseman who is inexpensive, can’t really play anywhere else and has had his offensive issues. Only the difference is that the one they have has lit up the minor leagues, has way more power and is probably a considerably better defender at this point in their careers. So what’s the deal with signing Frazier when Massey already exists and is sitting right in front of them?

That’s what doesn’t make sense to me. They’re both lefties who could probably use a right-handed complement. Massey is faster and younger. I mentioned that he has more power. If you did a blind test and looked at two players…

Player A: 1,057 PA .239/.301/.347, 16 HR, 7.4% BB, 13.3% K, 86 wRC+, -9 OAA
Player B: 655 PA, .233/.284/.379, 19 HR, 5.0% BB, 22.1% K, 79 wRC+, +3 OAA

…who are you taking? We all know who A and B are, so it’s not really a blind test, but I think you’d look at those numbers and while you may end up with A (obviously Frazier), it’s close enough that you need to factor in age and upside and I have a hunch people are taking Massey nine times out of 10.

Here’s where I find sense in this move. The Royals have said and backed it up with their offseason actions that guys aren’t going to be given roster spots. And I’m not naive enough to say that Massey has done anywhere near enough to say that he should go to camp as the second baseman without any questions asked. Now, I haven’t even brought up Nick Loftin in this conversation yet, but I’d have liked to have seen him get a real opportunity to win that starting job, and maybe he still can. Maybe Loftin is the guy safest on this team with Massey and Frazier being so similar. But the value here is that it gives the Royals legitimate depth.

If they decide they want Massey to spend the first two months in AAA continuing to hone his craft and Frazier is going to play against righties and hit at the bottom of the lineup, I get it. I still really don’t like Frazier as a player, but I at least get it. I think there are still plenty of opportunities for Loftin to get in there, both against lefties at second base and to give Garcia and even Pasquantino days off. Garcia hit .213/.298/.227 in his last 19 games. He may be a guy who needs a little more regular time off just to stay fresh. Pasquantino is coming off major shoulder surgery. I’m fine with some load management on him.

And then if Massey is playing well after a month or two, sure, bring him up and slot him back in at second base in Frazier’s role. Let Frazier either go to the bench or get moved to a team with a need and call it good. If that’s the plan, again, I get it. I don’t love it because of Frazier specifically, but I get it. I don’t really see a great way for Massey and Frazier to exist on this roster because of how alike they are, so I really don’t know that this move sends Loftin to AAA if this is about depth. But I also never say never with this team.

The other side of it goes back to the report I wrote about on Friday from Ken Rosenthal. The Royals are searching for a closer. I already gave my thoughts on the search, but could this signing signal something is afoot with one of the players impacted by a Frazier signing? They will need to clear a 40-man roster spot for him. That can be accomplished by a simple DFA. The options are less than they once were, but there are still some players who would be easy enough cuts. But maybe there’s a trade brewing.

The problem, at least if it involves either Massey or Loftin, is that neither of them are going to bring back enough on their own. I think both have a chance to be solid, even good, players in the near future. But you see Massey’s numbers above. Loftin had a really nice back-of-the-baseball-card debut, but there are enough metrics to doubt those numbers that there isn’t a team out there completely buying what he did. Plus, it’s not like he tore up the minors either. He hit .270/.344/.444 in AAA in 2023 and .254/.333/.403 between AA and AAA in 2022. I like Loftin, don’t get me wrong, but he’s not getting you a closer.

Who are the teams most in need of a second baseman? The Pirates could use some help there. The White Sox, Nationals, Rockies, Mariners, Brewers, Tigers, Angels and Giants join the Royals in the bottom 10 in terms of Fangraphs depth chart rankings at second base. Is there a fit with any of them? I suppose we could look back to David Bednar with the Pirates signing Aroldis Chapman, but they’ve held on to him for awhile to assume the asking price is much steeper than Massey or Loftin without the deal getting much bigger. The Royals have already dealt with Pittsburgh this winter in the Edward Olivares deal, so maybe there are conversations, but I sort of doubt it.

Outside of that, I don’t see a fit. I just keep coming back to the Marlins. They do have Luis Arraez, but he’s not a good defender at second and with Jorge Soler gone, they have a hole at DH. There might be a fit there for a deal surrounding either Tanner Scott or AJ Puk. It would require more than Massey or Loftin, but theoretically less than a deal for Bednar (though I’m not completely convinced that’s true). I could see the Royals and Red Sox coming together on a deal that maybe includes Brady Singer (and more) for Kenley Jansen, but they already acquired Vaughn Grissom and he seems to be slotting in at second for them. I guess he could move to the outfield, though so that kinda sorta checks out. I don’t think the Red Sox would take Jordan Lyles.

I’m just having a hard time finding that trade that includes one of Massey or Loftin. Trades can be tricky, though, so I’m sure there’s something I’m not seeing when I go through the league. I don’t know. I think it’s possible that they’re moving one of the young guys because of his Frazier deal, but the more I think about it, the tougher it is to see how that path works. I think they could still open up the roster spot with a deal for a closer, like a move around MJ Melendez, but the more I think about it, the more I think that the plan might be to give some real competition at second base.

I’m okay with that. The player they chose is not who I would have chosen, but the general idea of competition and nobody given a roster spot who hasn’t truly earned it yet is great. There are certainly worse things than having guys with legitimate big league experience and success waiting in the wings. I’ve written countless times about improving the bottom of the roster, and the bottom of the roster is considerably better today than it was a few months ago.

Will I be surprised if Massey or Loftin is traded in the next 48 hours? Of course not. But I’m starting to believe that maybe what’s next is that guys actually have to earn their jobs, which is a good thing. I don’t like the actual move they made, but I do like what it potentially represents. I’m very interested to see what the next move. is here.