Great piece. So strikeouts are a big part of this, but even BABIPs are down to .288, which is likely due to shifts and perhaps somewhat because of a deadened ball (although BABIPS are still lower than they were five years ago). I don't like banning shifts at all, but we do need to ask how to turn more balls into play into hits. Maybe making the outfield larger by moving back fences? I'm not sure. I do agree that lowering the mound and stricter rules on foreign substances would take some of the advantage away from pitchers.
Yeah, that's a good point. BABIP is down and shifts are a big reason for that, but I also wonder a couple things. One, how much is still early season noise? I don't know. It might not be much. And also, how much of that is hitters hitting the ball in the air more? The last five seasons have all had fly ball rates of 35%+. That doesn't truly explain the lower BABIP, but if you consider that the ball isn't traveling as far, maybe that has something to do with it. I don't know that either. Just throwing it out there.
The issue with moving fences back, even though I support it, is you've got some places that simply can't because of space. Not a ton, but a few at least. But that's another interesting point that I think the bandbox stadia of the 90s started this and people don't really acknowledge that much.
Yea, I don't expect any push to move fences back at all. Good point on early season data, cold weather could be a factor as well, will be worth watching.
I do not see hitters move around in the batters box. Closer to or further away from the plate. I think if hitters were willing to make some minor adjustments in the box on an at bat to at bat situation to situation basis, they would be in better position to succeed.
I agree. The pitchers now are incredible. But at some point the hitters have to do something different to succeed. And they only have so many tools. Move in the box, change your bat weight, adjust your swing to go the other way, or learn to bunt. Anything you can do to get on base. These guys are all tremendous athletes and for the most part young. They can still learn some new tricks.
But that's my point. It's not that easy. And even if one guy gets on, the next guy is going to have extreme difficulty. And so what's been determined is that the best bet to score runs isn't to do that. It's to swing for the fences because of how difficult it is just to make contact. Teams are never going to revert to an approach to get a guy on in any way possible when the odds are that player won't come home because they need two or three more guys to do the same thing.
I was actually looking up pull/oppo #s today, thinking today's guys don't go oppo like they used to and....it is virtually unchanged from 5, 10, even 20 years ago. Really surprised me.
I think I did the same thing last year maybe and was definitely surprised. I hadn't looked this year yet, but good to know it's still not really changed much.
You're right that the hitters have always been at a disadvantage - evidenced by the fact that they historically lose over 70% of the battles - you're also right that the pitchers are damn good.
However, to deny that the shift plays a part is inaccurate. You said yourself that the every part of the game is analyzed more than ever, part of that analysis is who to shift and where to shift. Defenses wouldn't do it if it didn't work.
Until hitters start making adjustments and hitting against the shift then mlb shouldn't do a single thing. Learn how to bunt, hit the ball oppy, play the game of knowing where the D is and where your opportunity is. Moose did it and drove his BA up and got to an All-Star level.
It's not on MLB to bail out one side of the game that is stubborn and stuck in an old-school mindset and refuses to adapt when the other side of the game has.
My whole point is that just saying they need to make adjustments isn’t enough. Pitching is SO much better than hitting with everything they have at their disposal that you can think that, but it’s simply not as likely that doing that works as trying to hit everything a million feet does. Until something is done to deincentivize that, nothing will change.
Right now, that gives the team the best odds to score a run and teams will never do something that lessens those odds. That’s what I mean when I say the shift isn’t the issue. Until something is done about how filthy pitching is without giving any help to batters, nothing else matters.
Great piece. So strikeouts are a big part of this, but even BABIPs are down to .288, which is likely due to shifts and perhaps somewhat because of a deadened ball (although BABIPS are still lower than they were five years ago). I don't like banning shifts at all, but we do need to ask how to turn more balls into play into hits. Maybe making the outfield larger by moving back fences? I'm not sure. I do agree that lowering the mound and stricter rules on foreign substances would take some of the advantage away from pitchers.
Yeah, that's a good point. BABIP is down and shifts are a big reason for that, but I also wonder a couple things. One, how much is still early season noise? I don't know. It might not be much. And also, how much of that is hitters hitting the ball in the air more? The last five seasons have all had fly ball rates of 35%+. That doesn't truly explain the lower BABIP, but if you consider that the ball isn't traveling as far, maybe that has something to do with it. I don't know that either. Just throwing it out there.
The issue with moving fences back, even though I support it, is you've got some places that simply can't because of space. Not a ton, but a few at least. But that's another interesting point that I think the bandbox stadia of the 90s started this and people don't really acknowledge that much.
Yea, I don't expect any push to move fences back at all. Good point on early season data, cold weather could be a factor as well, will be worth watching.
I do not see hitters move around in the batters box. Closer to or further away from the plate. I think if hitters were willing to make some minor adjustments in the box on an at bat to at bat situation to situation basis, they would be in better position to succeed.
They might be, but man, pitchers are so insanely good. You have a point, though.
I agree. The pitchers now are incredible. But at some point the hitters have to do something different to succeed. And they only have so many tools. Move in the box, change your bat weight, adjust your swing to go the other way, or learn to bunt. Anything you can do to get on base. These guys are all tremendous athletes and for the most part young. They can still learn some new tricks.
But that's my point. It's not that easy. And even if one guy gets on, the next guy is going to have extreme difficulty. And so what's been determined is that the best bet to score runs isn't to do that. It's to swing for the fences because of how difficult it is just to make contact. Teams are never going to revert to an approach to get a guy on in any way possible when the odds are that player won't come home because they need two or three more guys to do the same thing.
I was actually looking up pull/oppo #s today, thinking today's guys don't go oppo like they used to and....it is virtually unchanged from 5, 10, even 20 years ago. Really surprised me.
I think I did the same thing last year maybe and was definitely surprised. I hadn't looked this year yet, but good to know it's still not really changed much.
You're right that the hitters have always been at a disadvantage - evidenced by the fact that they historically lose over 70% of the battles - you're also right that the pitchers are damn good.
However, to deny that the shift plays a part is inaccurate. You said yourself that the every part of the game is analyzed more than ever, part of that analysis is who to shift and where to shift. Defenses wouldn't do it if it didn't work.
Until hitters start making adjustments and hitting against the shift then mlb shouldn't do a single thing. Learn how to bunt, hit the ball oppy, play the game of knowing where the D is and where your opportunity is. Moose did it and drove his BA up and got to an All-Star level.
It's not on MLB to bail out one side of the game that is stubborn and stuck in an old-school mindset and refuses to adapt when the other side of the game has.
My whole point is that just saying they need to make adjustments isn’t enough. Pitching is SO much better than hitting with everything they have at their disposal that you can think that, but it’s simply not as likely that doing that works as trying to hit everything a million feet does. Until something is done to deincentivize that, nothing will change.
Right now, that gives the team the best odds to score a run and teams will never do something that lessens those odds. That’s what I mean when I say the shift isn’t the issue. Until something is done about how filthy pitching is without giving any help to batters, nothing else matters.