Wrapping up the Royals Deadline

The Royals made two more trades on Tuesday leading up to the deadline. Let's break them down.

I know this is supposed to be about what the Royals did off the field, but I can’t let a fourth straight win go by without talking a little bit about a sort of crazy game against the Mets. How often do you get to say that the Royals won on a walk-off balk? I don’t know the actual answer to that, but it’s not very often. And yet, that’s exactly what happened last night in a game between teams with a roughly $250 million payroll gap.

Zack Greinke was not traded. He was never going to be traded, right or wrong. And he was pretty good for five innings, only giving up a home run to Pete Alonso, which is something many pitchers have done. Matt Quatraro got him out quickly, which is generally the right decision with Greinke on the mound and then turned it over to his (mostly) youthful bullpen. Alec Marsh was the first man out, which was a bit surprising since he was scheduled to start today (but it looks like it’ll be Cole Ragans now) and he looked good.

Then Austin Cox had a very good seventh and started the eighth getting one out and giving up a hit, which led to Dylan Coleman coming in and promptly vomiting all over the game. He’s done that far too much this season. The season is gone, as we know, so let him figure things out, but after his best outing of the year on Sunday, this one was up there with his worst and he gave up the lead to get the Mets to a 4-3 lead.

But the Royals continue to not quit, a trait they’ve shown all season long. MJ Melendez worked a walk and then stole second. He moved to third on a grounder from Salvador Perez and then scored on a Freddy Fermin sacrifice fly. The two teams were scoreless in the ninth, but new closer Carlos Hernandez gave up a two-run homer to lead off the 10th and it felt like the game was toast. You can give up one in the top half of extra innings and feel okay enough, but two makes it a different game.

Back came the Royals, though. With Maikel Garcia on second to start the inning, Bobby Witt Jr. stayed hot and smacked an RBI double, essentially making up for the home run and starting fresh. Melendez swung at the first pitch and drove in Witt to make it 6-6. Then things went a little nuts. Perez popped up and Fermin struck out swinging, which made me think we were getting an 11th inning. But Dairon Blanco reached on a throwing error, Drew Waters walked and that brought Michael Massey to the plate.

He never swung the bat.

Josh Walker had come in to face Massey and as the pitch clock wound down, Francisco Alvarez called time because of a pitchcom issue. Only Walker picked up his back leg and put it back down before time was called and, well, that’s a balk. So Melendez got to jog home with the winning run to give the Royals a fourth win in a row. Baseball is weird. Let’s talk trades.

For the second straight year, the Royals started their dealing early when they moved Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers before the end of June. Things were quiet for a long time before they made that trade of Nicky Lopez to the Braves and then Jose Cuas to the Cubs. That set us up for yesterday, which, as always, was a bit of a doozy around baseball. The Royals were quiet all day long. Rumors were flying, but there was just no news. The deadline at 5:00pm CDT hit and the Royals hadn’t made a trade.

People were mad. I preached patience, but nobody wants to hear that. Then I started to worry that all I’d heard for the last few hours and days was going to fall flat. And then, out of the abyss came the news.

Royals Acquire 1B/2B/LF Devin Mann and OF/1B Derlin Figueroa from the Dodgers for Ryan Yarbrough

Let’s first talk about Yarbrough. The fact that he was pitching at all was pretty amazing after he was hit in the face by that line drive. The fact that he was so effective upon his return was a huge bonus. In all, he did basically exactly what the Royals wanted him to do when they signed him for $3 million. He had a 4.24 ERA in 51 innings with just nine walks. In four starts since returning from the IL, he had a 2.19 ERA with 25 hits allowed in 24.2 innings with just two walks. The Dodgers need innings and Yarbrough was just the man for the job…after Eduardo Rodriguez turned them down.

In return, I think the Royals got a pretty interesting pair of players. Mann is listed in a few places as a first baseman, but I talked to two different scouts last night who believe he can play a good enough second base and can be average to a bit above average in left field eventually, so I don’t think he’s guaranteed to be a first baseman. In the re-rank of the Dodgers system at midseason, Mann ranked 24th in a good farm system. Here’s their scouting report.

Mann is a well-rounded player who does a little bit of everything. He is a persistent on-base threat with strong strike-zone discipline and good pitch recognition and has the contact skills and power to do damage when he gets a pitch to hit. Mann generates average raw power with a short, controlled swing and drives balls from gap-to-gap. He crushes lefties in particular and has a chance to be an average hitter who hits 10-15 home runs, although he has a hole on the outer half that can be exploited. Mann is a stiff defender at second base, but he loosens up in the outfield and covers enough ground in the corners with his long strides. His fringy arm fits best at second base or left field.

Score another vote for left field, I guess. He’s developed some power as he’s gone through the Dodgers system and is hitting .307/.402/.541 in AAA. It’s his second go-round after 156 plate appearances last year when he hit .258/.372/.455. What he can do is work a walk and he can drive the ball. That’s something the Royals are sorely lacking and there’s a spot somewhere on the diamond to see what he can bring. I don’t think I’d be terribly surprised if Mann comes up sooner than later and you see someone like Matt Duffy DFA’d since he wasn’t moved.

I know a lot less about Figueroa, but he’s super interesting. He spent two years in the Dominican Summer League and is now in the Arizona Complex League as a 19-year-old. He’s holding his own in spite of being a touch young for his league. He has a 16.8 percent walk rate and 22.1 percent strikeout rate with a little more power than I think I expected from him. He doesn’t always access it, but when he does, it’s really impressive. I like his swing quite a bit.

It’s interesting that he’s listed as a shortstop in so many places because he hasn’t played shortstop in two years. He’s been mostly in left field, but has a little time in right and at first base too. I know he isn’t likely to be as good as Yordan Alvarez, but I think a lot about how the Dodgers traded him for Josh Fields. It’s why I always love the idea of trading with the Dodgers. They just have so much talent and a great eye for that talent, so I’m intrigued to see how Figueroa develops.

Royals Acquire RHP Henry Williams and RHP Jesus Rios from Padres for Scott Barlow

The Royals held on to their closer for a bit too long, which is something they’ve become very good at. I think the time to trade Barlow was after the 2021 season, but I’ll maintain that I’m not sure the offers were worth it at the 2022 deadline. Still, his velocity dipped and his command dropped and his value was considerably less than it would have been following that 2021 season. I spoke with three people around the game and two believe the value was roughly the same as what it was last year while one thought it dropped a fair amount from then, but not a lot from where it was earlier in the year.

One thing I will not tolerate is Barlow slander. He didn’t choose to not be traded and he had himself an excellent Royals career that all started by signing a split contract a few years ago. In parts of six seasons, Barlow had a 3.39 ERA with a 28.4 percent strikeout rate, 9.5 percent walk rate and 56 saves. He had a rough couple of weeks at the end, but Barlow was underrated basically his whole Royals career and was one of the few bright spots on some truly bad teams. It was time to trade him, but he deserves accolades for his time in Kansas City. I think he’ll be a really nice piece of a Padres bullpen that includes many different looks.

The headliner return for Barlow is Williams, who was ranked 15th by Baseball America in their midseason update and slots in ninth on the Royals prospect list on MLB Pipeline (I believe he was 10th in the original rankings on the Padres list). Williams is super interesting. He is coming back from Tommy John after getting drafted in the third round last season. The results haven’t been very good in 12 starts, but it’s also not all bad. He’s allowed fewer hits than innings pitched and struck out almost a batter per inning while he’s still working to get his velocity back.

Here’s the BA scouting report:

Before his elbow reconstruction, Williams sat 94-98 mph with a high-spin fastball that played up with carry at the top of the strike zone. His three-pitch mix also includes a wipeout slider that projects as a plus pitch and a fading, mid-80s changeup. Athletic on the mound, Williams still has room on his lean frame to get stronger and add more velocity as he moves further away from surgery. He throws strikes with above-average control and has solid command of all of his pitches. Williams’s build, arsenal and control are that of a no-doubt starter, but if something stalls in his rehab, his stuff would also be rather loud in a relief role.

BA lists his fastball, slider, changeup and control all as a 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale, which are all firmly above average. There’s risk because his stuff doesn’t appear to be fully back from the surgery, but the upside with him is fantastic and he has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter. I think the 55 on the changeup is probably a little bit optimistic at this point, but I can see it getting there with some impressive movement.

This probably seems weird to say, but he just looks like a pitcher out there. He’s 6’5” and has a chance to add a little muscle as he continues to develop. I really like this piece of the deal.

Like Figueroa, I don’t know much about Rios. The Royals like his spin metrics and he’s throwing mid-90s in the Dominican Summer League. It’s not translating to results yet, but he’s also thrown just 18.1 innings. I’m guessing we don’t remember this name for much longer, but I do like that they took a shot on an upside play. I haven’t had a chance to talk with anyone who knows much about him either, so I’ll report back.

There is a fair amount of news in who they didn’t trade as well. They hung on to Taylor Clarke, Matt Duffy, Carlos Hernandez, Edward Olivares and Brady Singer as well as the most interesting story, Salvador Perez. With Clarke and Duffy, I just don’t think there was enough of a market and it wouldn’t surprise me too much, as I said, if the latter is let go soon. I think they’ll keep Clarke around because of his team control and the fact that someone needs to pitch. I do think there’s at least some intrigue in the fact that he didn’t pitch last night.

I have to imagine that the Royals just didn’t get enough back for Olivares to move him. And that’s fine. He has value and there’s no reason to move a guy who isn’t really blocking anyone who can provide a service. With Hernandez, I’d have been fine trading him and I’m happy keeping him. You can make an argument that even if he continues doing what he’s done this year (not last night specifically), he’ll be even more valuable next season after racking up some saves. There’s risk in that, but there’s risk in making the deal based on three good months too and watching him explode later when he’d have been worth more if you had held.

JJ Picollo mentioned that there were “some potential bigger deals that just didn’t quite come together.” He said that one fell apart in the middle of the day and one they were still trying to work out when the deadline hit. That happens. That’s interesting to me. What could they be? My guess is the one that fell apart in the middle of the day involved Singer (maybe Hernandez, I guess) and the one they were still trying to work out was Perez, but I don’t know that for certain.

Remember, trades can pick back up again in a few months, so what those comments tell me is that the Royals will be active on the trade front in the offseason. I definitely get the impression that they’d be fine to trade Singer, but obviously also don’t want to just take the first deal they’re offered and I have a hunch that the offers probably weren’t accepting. I would imagine that will be revisited this winter with only a handful of actually very good starting pitchers on the free agent market. I’ll feel that even more if we see some strides taken by the young pitching over the final third of the season.

The Perez wrinkle is interesting. Back a few weeks ago, Picollo addressed the trade rumors for him and I thought he made it sound like the ball was in Salvy’s court. If Salvy wanted to go, they’d try to make it happen, but he didn’t think Salvy wanted to go. Indications now are that he’d accept a trade. The rumor I’d heard for weeks was Miami, but then someone (I’m sorry, I forgot who) dropped a White Sox rumor. I don’t buy that. I know he’s a Grifol fan and Tosar is there, but is Grifol even guaranteed to be there that long given the lack of success combined with the expectations? I don’t know. Seems fishy.

But I do think he would be happy to go play in Miami and without any inside knowledge, that seems like the trade that just didn’t get done in time. It’s super complicated. You’ve got a franchise icon who was just given the captain role and there’s likely a fair amount of money changing hands because I highly doubt the Marlins are interested in paying him nearly $50 million through 2025. There are just a ton of moving parts there. I’ll be excited to see what happens with those talks when the offseason hits.

In the end, the Royals traded Aroldis Chapman, Nicky Lopez, Jose Cuas, cash, Ryan Yarbrough and Scott Barlow for Cole Ragans, Roni Cabrera, Taylor Hearn (still ugh), Nelson Velazquez, Tucker Davidson (didn’t even mention him, but he’s a sort of interesting flyer), Mann, Figueroa, Williams and Rios. On the whole, I like the haul. Chapman was the closest to an impact deal and I’m at least curious to see what Ragans can do and Cabrera is an interesting lottery ticket.

For all the hoopla over looking for big league ready talent, I think the Royals did a nice job of diversifying their returns. Ragans is obviously a big leaguer. Hearn is at least big league depth until he’s cut loose and Velazquez and Davidson have been big leaguers (and I think Davidson is out of options, so he’ll need to be on the big league roster). I believe Mann could be up soon, but Figueroa, Williams and Rios are a couple dream on along with Cabrera. I would have liked to see maybe one more move, but all in all, I do think it was a solid deadline. I wanted to see a monster month of trades, but if I have to give it a letter grade, I’d go B- and that’s enough to put the pitchforks away from the other day and see what the offseason will bring.