Got to disagree with the B- David, lol. As you were probably expecting. In all, the returns for Yarbrough and Barlow were fine/good. No issue with those. But those are the moves you are expected to make and on a 100 loss team, we got nothing creative out of this front office. If I take a 10,000 foot view of this. We have gone 11 months now, so an offseason, a draft, and a trade deadline. We have no more top 100 prospects than when we started the process 11 months ago. Are top 100 prospects the end all be all, no of course not, but they are a general view. Civale got the 39th best prospect in baseball back as a return. I see very little difference in Civale and Singer as numbers and contracts are basically the same. Cleveland did it right, again, while the Royals are “waiting”. So this is a C- at best. The fact that “bigger” deals were on the table and you couldn’t get them done is not a good thing in my eyes. Yes, you held your ground, that’s great. But you DIDN’T MOVE ANYONE THAT YOU DIDN’T HAVE TOO. Lol. This roster is no closer to fitting together than it was to start the year. We still have 3 catchers, 2 short stops, 2 first baseman…in 7 of your 9 starting spots. I felt like they had to be creative, they were not. I don’t understand the plan here anymore.
Now, you are going to rightfully tell me it easier to make these moves in the offseason. 100% right, but they have yet to make any of them. So now you are taking the risk of Singer sucking again, or Perez getting hurt, or Hernandez having TJ. I just don’t want to hear you had big “deals” on the table and couldn’t get them done. What are we doing here? You are a 100+ loss team, how can this roster still be in place.
Sigh, I’m not upset. I just need change. Lol. The coaching change has been….ehhh I’ll say ok. I’m glad the philosophy has changed in the low minors. But valuing players (own players even) is no better than it was before with no creativity. Clean house.
I just struggle with Civale getting back a 40ish range top 100 guy. And the Royals hang on to Singer. They are the same players. There is still a disconnect on how we do things and how the best teams in our market do things. What really gets me is how this disconnect is occurring when Sherman came from Cleveland. Lol.
I haven't talked to a single scout in about 8 organizations now who would have given up a top-40 prospect for Civale. Only the Rays. And they liked Civale more. It's pretty simple.
You're certainly welcome to your opinion. I can tell you that the Rays preferred Civale to Singer for a number of reasons. I haven't been able to confirm anything, but I've heard some rumors of what the offers were for Singer and I wouldn't have traded him for those offers either. They couldn't find a middle ground (yet) and so they didn't.
I'd definitely argue with the idea that the roster is still in place. They're getting starts now from Cole Ragans and Alec Marsh with others knocking on the door. The bullpen is Hernandez at the back now with them pretty clearly looking to guys like Austin Cox and soon to be some of the bigger name relief prospects. Hunter Dozier, JBJ and Franmil Reyes were big parts of the April roster. They're long gone. They don't have three catchers. MJ isn't a catcher. They have two. I get the frustration, I just disagree with the assessment here, which is fine.
You have said yourself this roster doesn’t fit. It doesn’t fit any better today than it did last year. So yes, Dozier, JBJ, and Reyes are gone, but they were never for this team anyway. MJ isn’t a catcher now, but he’s not an outfielder either. Civale, Singer, the names don’t really matter. Good on Cleveland for getting with the only team in baseball who would get them what they wanted. Seems like a smart move. My only real discouragement is this team is no closer to fitting than it was to start the year. A lot of that is on the player performing. But now we see what they do in the offseason, and then if they do nothing, we see what the deadline holds, and it’s just the continued cycle. Its already started from this is a big deadline, to its a big offseason, to its a big next couple of offseasons. It’s why the lack of creativity kills me. But oh well, the Royals season is essentially over now anyway since the deadline has passed.
Actually, i think it is the comments about deals that fell through. Yes, it happens all the time, totally understand that. But you don’t get credit for “almost” making big deals. Feels like that comment was looking for credit for almost doing something. I could be completely misunderstanding that. But that part is what chaps me I think.
You are absolutely completely misunderstanding that. He was being open about the process. You can't ask for that and get pissed when he does it. He basically told you they were trying to be creative and just didn't get it done at this point. It happens. You know how many deals get discussed but don't get done? One front office person told me a couple years ago that he'd guess about 5% of deals get done at the deadline and maybe 30% of the rest are what set up the offseason.
Sure, totally get that. That’s not the issue. The issue is I want you to be different and show me you are different. You are guilty be association. Not fair, but it’s life. I want you to be able to show me you can get one of those deals done to get back actual talent. So knowing they were close and couldn’t close it. That sucks. I actually am fine with all that they did as well except the Lopez trade. Did they get actual talent back? IDK, but I’ll take the lottery tickets.
They obviously still have work to do. I wanted them to trade Olivares. I don't care so much about the return there. I get why they didn't, but I'd have taken 80 cents on the dollar to clear him out. They didn't, and that's disappointing. But this roster doesn't work and it's because they don't have enough good players. They went from a logjam to something worse. And no, they didn't fill every need this past month. Most teams didn't. I agree, good on Cleveland for having the piece that one team wanted and getting something good for it. The Royals don't have it and you can complain all day that they didn't do this and they didn't do that, but the players have underperformed to the point that the creative trades we all were hoping for probably were never a possibility because the Royals trading guys at minimum value is terrible business. You want creativity, you're getting lottery tickets for guys who actually have talent and have plenty of time to rebuild value.
And you're right. That's the cycle because there's literally nothing we can do here in the comments section of this newsletter to change it. I think they did a nice job on all the returns but Lopez and even that I sort of get to some extent now but still hate the actual player/process there. I think they missed the boat on a couple and I think we'll see a ton of movement this winter. I don't have a crystal ball, so I suppose I can't promise it, but I've heard from a lot of people to expect it, so that's where we sit today.
Okay if MJ isn't a catcher he isn't an outfielder either, unless you're going to send him down to learn for a half a season. Otherwise all you have is an athletic below average hitter who is a below average catcher and at best a serviceable outfielder. I keep hearing Garcia isn't a 3rd basemen ultimately he is a SS and the royals will never move Witt from SS. So we have 2 SS 2 2nd basemen 2 first basemen (both hurt now). Maybe we could have bundled one of our pitchers with one of our multiple infielders or MJ and gotten a true 3rd base prospect and some young pitchers.
I don’t know where you’re hearing that Garcia isn’t ultimately a third baseman. He’s great there and the Royals love their infield with him and Witt in this alignment. So they have a third baseman and they have a shortstop. They also have a true third base prospect in Cayden Wallace.
SS is really the one position that I don’t care if you have three of them just because if you play short you can play second or third. It’s the multiple catchers and multiple first baseman that get me. But technically, MJ is an outfielder now, so its just Freddy and Salvy. I think the only thing I was getting at was the same thing people have been saying for over a year now in that you can only have one guy play a position at a time. But it’s old news. Was hopeful FO could rectify some of it and maybe move MJ or Pratto to give some clairify. Ultimately, their performance made it near impossible. But it’s a mistake that can’t keep happening with the next group coming up. I was crying about spilled milk because it is already done. But I’m over it now. Onward we go. Lol.
Well, hang on. I say that, but they actually did have Nicky off a great year, Witt in the system, and Mondesi…..so maybe I do care if they have three at once. Move one of those. Lol
Two, you can have two SS at the same time without a big issue. Only two.
Thanks Lesky, I still hear people yelling Garcia should be at ss and we have too many ss, and I can't understand why! Garcia looks great at 3rd and Bobby doing a fine job at short. What's not to love?
Great, I’m the only commenter and Lesky is tired of arguing with me.
Good news, you can probably cut back on the writing a bit going forward. Hopefully the boys give you some more good things to write about. I expect a good September to ballon hope for next year. Actually, I think you sent out something a while ago about there September’s not being all that good even though it feels like that every year.
I'm not tired of arguing with you, but I think you're seeing it one way when there are about a million different angles. I completely get the frustration, but I'm trying to give you the other perspectives that I don't think you're seeing. I certainly don't know everything, but I do think there's some value in knowing what others in the game are saying and most see that the Royals were in a tough spot this deadline. Deals were put together super late and I don't think the Royals had a whole lot straightforward that they could have done, which made for a difficult dash to the end. So many of these conversations that start in June and July get continued in November. Am I confident they'll get something done? No, but this organization never would have even talked about Singer or Salvy before. And Hernandez? Oh hell no. You don't trade a reliever like that until the value is long past peak. But they're discussing it. Sometimes deals happen quickly. Sometimes they don't. The beauty of the offseason, which is why it's easier, is there isn't a real deadline. You keep talking through the end of the year, you figure some things out and you get a deal done on your time.
"Hey Dayton, we'd love to add Merrifield/Barlow/Soria/Cain etc etc etc..."
"Well, Im not too inclined to move him, hes an integral piece for when we break out next year. I'd say 4 top 100 prospects that are close to the majors sounds fair"
*Insert Dial Tone Sound
Singer, Salvy, Hernandez are being seriously discussed. This would have NEVER happened previously..yes this should be expected, but things HAVE changed. Will it lead to winning? Who knows. But processes have improved. Great point David.
just sitting back in the peanut gallery watching the ping pong. I'm more on Lesky's side in all this, but that said this comment section would be pretty uninteresting w/out someone taking the flip side of the discussion, so thank you for that. Also, obviously subject to the small sample reality, but this infield w/ Salvy at 1B and Fermin catching kind of resembles a real MLB infield. And MJ kind of looks like a different guy since the break. I think I may need to clean the rose tint off the glasses, but this little streak has been nice.
Lol, I’m glad Lesky is the voice of reason. Can I do things better than the front office? Of course I can, I’m a fan. I don’t get paid to get it right. I just want them to get it right. At the end of the day, we all just want to pay attention to a winning team. I don’t really care if its this group or the next. Just be competent. If that’s .500 or around there so be it. One day we will get there again fellas. One day.
It's so easy to get excited about small samples because when what you want to see happening starts happening, you want to believe it. It's also a lot easier to see a decent future when they've won four in a row rather than having lost six in a row. I'll maintain that the reality is somewhere in the middle. Anyone who thinks this year is just a nightmare that'll be fine next year is probably wrong. Anyone who thinks this team is going to lose 115 games *next* year is probably wrong too.
That’s a good one actually. If we changed nothing going into next year. Luck will even out a bit (and I hate the luck excuse but I do generally think they have been a little bit) with the same talent I see 90 loses. Which could be a 15 game improvement give or take. I do believe it is hard to lose 100. Like first 3 game winning streak in August hard. So I see improvement next year. What i struggle to see is the 25 game improvement it might take so I just hope the FO see’s that too.
It’s a little crazy to think about losing 100 games and being .500 is only an 18 game difference in 162. Like, it’s really, really, hard to lose 100 in baseball. Kinda crazy.
I think they did ok after Sunday’s debacle, given what they had to offer. At least they’re targeting some Latino players, which is critical given the weakness of their international scouting and signings. And I do hope Q resists the urge to overuse Hernandez, as he’s both the current closer and likely their best trade chip.
I think he's done a really nice job of *not* overusing anyone really. Even last night, the ninth inning in a tie game is a spot where "the book" says to go to the closer and he didn't, so I don't think that's a huge concern.
Seems like we got mostly organizational fillers and lottery tickets. Maybe Ragans or Williams will become real assets, but would the pitching hungry Rangers and Padres have traded them for short term, middle-of-the-road players if they thought they would become mid-rotation starters on playoff teams? I don’t think so. The scouting reports say Williams has a lot of potential, but he has had serious arm problems. (I agree that Barlow did good things for the Royals, but those days are mostly in the past with his decrease in velocity. I also understand he’s not strictly a rental.)
The guy we got from the Dodgers looks like a replacement level player, at best. 26 years old and still in AAA for a team that has had a bunch of position player injuries this year. The Dodgers, like the Braves with Waters et al, rarely trade guys who have a chance to be good players. The guy we got from the Cubs was being passed over by better prospects in a not-too-great farm system. He’s not likely to even be replacement level.
I have to confess that I am jaded in my evaluation of the current front office, but we are six years into 100 loss seasons and have very little talent to trade. Piccolo was GMDM’s right hand man when we dug this deep hole.
IMO, we’re probably six more years away from the playoffs (that may be optimistic) unless serious changes are made. I, too, don’t want to hear “we couldn’t quite get there.” Sherman needs to bring in some Front Office talent that can make something happen, and sooner rather than later.
I absolutely think they'd trade them. They got players who can help them now and sacrificed future for it. Mike Elias made a really interesting point that buyers often "lose" the trades in the long-term because they're focused on right now and sometimes you give up more value over time than you get back.
It's fine if you don't think any of them are going to be anything. The odds are that you'll be right because failure happens a lot more success, even in the most successful organizations. But I think there's quite a bit to like about all of the returns. Even if Mann is a replacement level player, they traded a guy who was DFA'd last year for him and a high-upside young player. There's context to that. If Velazquez isn't great, well, that makes sense because they traded him for Jose Cuas.
Future mid-rotation pitchers for playoff teams? I respectfully disagree with your comment that they absolutely would trade pitchers with that potential for four months of a much-diminished Chapman and eight months of a diminished Barlow. Granted, the Royals gave up very little, but are they making strides toward becoming a playoff team? Very small steps, if any, IMO. And most of the same people who got us into this mess are still at the helm. Again, we disagree.
I don’t know if you follow Baseball Trade Values or not (you probably do). They rate the Chapman trade a pretty big loser for the Royals, the Lopez trade a near tossup, the Cuas trade a slight winner, the Yarborough trade a slight winner and the Barlow trade a loser.
I think Baseball Trade Values is pretty wonky and I know a lot of people smarter than me look at it as an interesting tool that doesn't have a ton of value. I don't especially care much for what it says. I think that teams are willing to take risks at the deadline when they're close to winning.
That was a fun game. i am one of those who has accused mj of being unenthusiastic, but he looked pumped last night. Wonder how much the trade deadline weighs on guys?
Thank you for that thorough write up. Can't imagine between deadline and baby you got much sleep last night.
I am overall pleasantly surprised with what the royals did. I had been against trading Salvy, thinking he wouldn't bring back enough value, but aren't,t marlins flush with young pitching? I would be thrilled with a decent SP. Any scuttlebutt on Davidson?
I saw a statistic where something like 10% of the prospects exchanged at the deadline go on to be significant contributors at the MLB level. It's fun to speculate but the emotional investment probably is misspent. The reality to me is this. If Ragans or Williams becomes a durable, good middle of rotation starter, it was a good haul for what we gave up. Low salaries on Chapman and Yarbrough essential mean we bought some controllable prospects at a reasonable price. Anything else any of these guys ultimately contribute is gravy, and as with the draft, we're not going to know for a while. Except Ragans..... no the season isn't over. The evaluation is just beginning.
I saw that too. Not sure if 10% is the number, but I know what you're talking about there. I'd love to see an analysis of the "smart" teams vs. the "dumb" teams to see how that 10% is made up. That would be interesting to me. I go back to the opening presser for Q and how he said they need to win on the margins and he's absolutely right. If the league gets 10%, the Royals need to get 20%. Simple as that.
Is it luck, skill or player development when you draft Albert Pujols in the 13th round? Is it luck, skill, or player development when you acquire Nelson Cruz, and he sits on the bench for 4 years before he realizes he's a HOF hitter at age 29? Who knew Spencer Strider was a dominant front line starter. Idk but the Royals need to do some of that if they are going to win.
I'll answer your question with yes. It's all of that, but to think there's no amount of luck involved would be foolish. The Royals need to get better at the rest, though, for sure.
I think a lot of it is luck. I think this team got very lucky in 2014 and 2015, and has paid a karmic price since. They've also not been "state of the art" in player development or metrics up til now, which doesn't help.
I don't think they're paying any sort of karmic price and I believe that any team that wins a championship has a good deal of good luck. They definitely haven't helped themselves, though.
Thanks for the great stuff, David. Obvious you put some time into writing a lot this week and it is appreciated. Regarding the trades, it seems like we sold a little low on Barlow but quite high on Cuas, so that feels like a wash. I did see the stat referenced above on MLB Network yesterday regarding prospect success rates after being traded. I believe they said 3% became cornerstone type players and 10% became contributors. But better to have 10% chance than zero I suppose. As an aside, we all love this crazy game, at least in part, because it is unpredictable. Last night's balk-off is one of many examples. So it's kinda weird to me to act like we know more than we do, when so much (at least to me) is unknowable. We don't know if the Dodgers gave us quality MLB guys or not, and they don't either. They may be better as an organization than KC has been at hitting on development, but they still miss a lot, as every team does. That 10% stat shows that across baseball. Arguing about it is part of the fun I suppose, and I did enjoy the back and forth between Joel and David, but I like the trades overall (obviously the Lopez trade is the exception) and we'll see. We didn't see a 110 loss team this year, so we probably don't see next year's record yet either, and certainly not six years in the future as one commenter mentioned. The last four games have at least been a nice break from the beatdown. And at the very least, it is starting to look like we have a legit left side of the infield, a backup catcher that can hit, and MJ does look better as well. And we made some trades at the deadline. So the optimist in me is seeing some improvement.
Every team makes mistakes. I'll bring up Yordan Alvarez again. The Dodgers traded him for Josh Fields. Fields had posted a 6.89 ERA for the Astros in 15 games in 2016. He had been better before, but never special. And he pitched well for the Dodgers. But they gave up Alvarez, who was by one article "an unheralded teenager." That was about the most anyone said about him. He was better regarded as an international signing than Figueroa, but the point is that even the best teams give up real talent. Does this mean Figueroa will hit? No. Does it mean Cabrera will hit? No. But you never know there and I appreciate the kind of talent those guys have.
I definitely see improvement, which is easier during a winning streak than a losing streak and they need to continue this in November and December, but I'm cautiously optimistic they'll continue to makeover this team.
Appreciated the summary of the players we received in transactions; however this statement by you just cracked me up. "which led to Dylan Coleman coming in and promptly vomiting all over the game." Hilarious! Not for the team or him, but you nailed it. Thanks, David.
I'm right with you on the B- average grade for the deadline. Was maybe hoping for a bit more, but the bigger trades were always more likely this winter. I would love your thoughts on the returns. Not necessarily on individual players, but profiles. It sounds like William's has a high spin fb with a hard breaking slider. Appears the bats have solid zone recognition/plate discipline. These characteristics seem to be the focal points in development right now as well (which has been needed for 20yrs). I don't think their was a ton of impact added, but I liked seeing guys added that seem to line up with the new development direction.
Got to disagree with the B- David, lol. As you were probably expecting. In all, the returns for Yarbrough and Barlow were fine/good. No issue with those. But those are the moves you are expected to make and on a 100 loss team, we got nothing creative out of this front office. If I take a 10,000 foot view of this. We have gone 11 months now, so an offseason, a draft, and a trade deadline. We have no more top 100 prospects than when we started the process 11 months ago. Are top 100 prospects the end all be all, no of course not, but they are a general view. Civale got the 39th best prospect in baseball back as a return. I see very little difference in Civale and Singer as numbers and contracts are basically the same. Cleveland did it right, again, while the Royals are “waiting”. So this is a C- at best. The fact that “bigger” deals were on the table and you couldn’t get them done is not a good thing in my eyes. Yes, you held your ground, that’s great. But you DIDN’T MOVE ANYONE THAT YOU DIDN’T HAVE TOO. Lol. This roster is no closer to fitting together than it was to start the year. We still have 3 catchers, 2 short stops, 2 first baseman…in 7 of your 9 starting spots. I felt like they had to be creative, they were not. I don’t understand the plan here anymore.
Now, you are going to rightfully tell me it easier to make these moves in the offseason. 100% right, but they have yet to make any of them. So now you are taking the risk of Singer sucking again, or Perez getting hurt, or Hernandez having TJ. I just don’t want to hear you had big “deals” on the table and couldn’t get them done. What are we doing here? You are a 100+ loss team, how can this roster still be in place.
Sigh, I’m not upset. I just need change. Lol. The coaching change has been….ehhh I’ll say ok. I’m glad the philosophy has changed in the low minors. But valuing players (own players even) is no better than it was before with no creativity. Clean house.
I just struggle with Civale getting back a 40ish range top 100 guy. And the Royals hang on to Singer. They are the same players. There is still a disconnect on how we do things and how the best teams in our market do things. What really gets me is how this disconnect is occurring when Sherman came from Cleveland. Lol.
I haven't talked to a single scout in about 8 organizations now who would have given up a top-40 prospect for Civale. Only the Rays. And they liked Civale more. It's pretty simple.
You're certainly welcome to your opinion. I can tell you that the Rays preferred Civale to Singer for a number of reasons. I haven't been able to confirm anything, but I've heard some rumors of what the offers were for Singer and I wouldn't have traded him for those offers either. They couldn't find a middle ground (yet) and so they didn't.
I'd definitely argue with the idea that the roster is still in place. They're getting starts now from Cole Ragans and Alec Marsh with others knocking on the door. The bullpen is Hernandez at the back now with them pretty clearly looking to guys like Austin Cox and soon to be some of the bigger name relief prospects. Hunter Dozier, JBJ and Franmil Reyes were big parts of the April roster. They're long gone. They don't have three catchers. MJ isn't a catcher. They have two. I get the frustration, I just disagree with the assessment here, which is fine.
You have said yourself this roster doesn’t fit. It doesn’t fit any better today than it did last year. So yes, Dozier, JBJ, and Reyes are gone, but they were never for this team anyway. MJ isn’t a catcher now, but he’s not an outfielder either. Civale, Singer, the names don’t really matter. Good on Cleveland for getting with the only team in baseball who would get them what they wanted. Seems like a smart move. My only real discouragement is this team is no closer to fitting than it was to start the year. A lot of that is on the player performing. But now we see what they do in the offseason, and then if they do nothing, we see what the deadline holds, and it’s just the continued cycle. Its already started from this is a big deadline, to its a big offseason, to its a big next couple of offseasons. It’s why the lack of creativity kills me. But oh well, the Royals season is essentially over now anyway since the deadline has passed.
Actually, i think it is the comments about deals that fell through. Yes, it happens all the time, totally understand that. But you don’t get credit for “almost” making big deals. Feels like that comment was looking for credit for almost doing something. I could be completely misunderstanding that. But that part is what chaps me I think.
You are absolutely completely misunderstanding that. He was being open about the process. You can't ask for that and get pissed when he does it. He basically told you they were trying to be creative and just didn't get it done at this point. It happens. You know how many deals get discussed but don't get done? One front office person told me a couple years ago that he'd guess about 5% of deals get done at the deadline and maybe 30% of the rest are what set up the offseason.
Sure, totally get that. That’s not the issue. The issue is I want you to be different and show me you are different. You are guilty be association. Not fair, but it’s life. I want you to be able to show me you can get one of those deals done to get back actual talent. So knowing they were close and couldn’t close it. That sucks. I actually am fine with all that they did as well except the Lopez trade. Did they get actual talent back? IDK, but I’ll take the lottery tickets.
But as I've said so many times, there's a difference between not doing something and not doing something yet.
They obviously still have work to do. I wanted them to trade Olivares. I don't care so much about the return there. I get why they didn't, but I'd have taken 80 cents on the dollar to clear him out. They didn't, and that's disappointing. But this roster doesn't work and it's because they don't have enough good players. They went from a logjam to something worse. And no, they didn't fill every need this past month. Most teams didn't. I agree, good on Cleveland for having the piece that one team wanted and getting something good for it. The Royals don't have it and you can complain all day that they didn't do this and they didn't do that, but the players have underperformed to the point that the creative trades we all were hoping for probably were never a possibility because the Royals trading guys at minimum value is terrible business. You want creativity, you're getting lottery tickets for guys who actually have talent and have plenty of time to rebuild value.
And you're right. That's the cycle because there's literally nothing we can do here in the comments section of this newsletter to change it. I think they did a nice job on all the returns but Lopez and even that I sort of get to some extent now but still hate the actual player/process there. I think they missed the boat on a couple and I think we'll see a ton of movement this winter. I don't have a crystal ball, so I suppose I can't promise it, but I've heard from a lot of people to expect it, so that's where we sit today.
Okay if MJ isn't a catcher he isn't an outfielder either, unless you're going to send him down to learn for a half a season. Otherwise all you have is an athletic below average hitter who is a below average catcher and at best a serviceable outfielder. I keep hearing Garcia isn't a 3rd basemen ultimately he is a SS and the royals will never move Witt from SS. So we have 2 SS 2 2nd basemen 2 first basemen (both hurt now). Maybe we could have bundled one of our pitchers with one of our multiple infielders or MJ and gotten a true 3rd base prospect and some young pitchers.
I don’t know where you’re hearing that Garcia isn’t ultimately a third baseman. He’s great there and the Royals love their infield with him and Witt in this alignment. So they have a third baseman and they have a shortstop. They also have a true third base prospect in Cayden Wallace.
SS is really the one position that I don’t care if you have three of them just because if you play short you can play second or third. It’s the multiple catchers and multiple first baseman that get me. But technically, MJ is an outfielder now, so its just Freddy and Salvy. I think the only thing I was getting at was the same thing people have been saying for over a year now in that you can only have one guy play a position at a time. But it’s old news. Was hopeful FO could rectify some of it and maybe move MJ or Pratto to give some clairify. Ultimately, their performance made it near impossible. But it’s a mistake that can’t keep happening with the next group coming up. I was crying about spilled milk because it is already done. But I’m over it now. Onward we go. Lol.
Well, hang on. I say that, but they actually did have Nicky off a great year, Witt in the system, and Mondesi…..so maybe I do care if they have three at once. Move one of those. Lol
Two, you can have two SS at the same time without a big issue. Only two.
Thanks Lesky, I still hear people yelling Garcia should be at ss and we have too many ss, and I can't understand why! Garcia looks great at 3rd and Bobby doing a fine job at short. What's not to love?
It’s working and it seems both sustainable and like a long-term solution to me.
Great, I’m the only commenter and Lesky is tired of arguing with me.
Good news, you can probably cut back on the writing a bit going forward. Hopefully the boys give you some more good things to write about. I expect a good September to ballon hope for next year. Actually, I think you sent out something a while ago about there September’s not being all that good even though it feels like that every year.
I'm not tired of arguing with you, but I think you're seeing it one way when there are about a million different angles. I completely get the frustration, but I'm trying to give you the other perspectives that I don't think you're seeing. I certainly don't know everything, but I do think there's some value in knowing what others in the game are saying and most see that the Royals were in a tough spot this deadline. Deals were put together super late and I don't think the Royals had a whole lot straightforward that they could have done, which made for a difficult dash to the end. So many of these conversations that start in June and July get continued in November. Am I confident they'll get something done? No, but this organization never would have even talked about Singer or Salvy before. And Hernandez? Oh hell no. You don't trade a reliever like that until the value is long past peak. But they're discussing it. Sometimes deals happen quickly. Sometimes they don't. The beauty of the offseason, which is why it's easier, is there isn't a real deadline. You keep talking through the end of the year, you figure some things out and you get a deal done on your time.
Phone rings,
"Hey Dayton, we'd love to add Merrifield/Barlow/Soria/Cain etc etc etc..."
"Well, Im not too inclined to move him, hes an integral piece for when we break out next year. I'd say 4 top 100 prospects that are close to the majors sounds fair"
*Insert Dial Tone Sound
Singer, Salvy, Hernandez are being seriously discussed. This would have NEVER happened previously..yes this should be expected, but things HAVE changed. Will it lead to winning? Who knows. But processes have improved. Great point David.
just sitting back in the peanut gallery watching the ping pong. I'm more on Lesky's side in all this, but that said this comment section would be pretty uninteresting w/out someone taking the flip side of the discussion, so thank you for that. Also, obviously subject to the small sample reality, but this infield w/ Salvy at 1B and Fermin catching kind of resembles a real MLB infield. And MJ kind of looks like a different guy since the break. I think I may need to clean the rose tint off the glasses, but this little streak has been nice.
Lol, I’m glad Lesky is the voice of reason. Can I do things better than the front office? Of course I can, I’m a fan. I don’t get paid to get it right. I just want them to get it right. At the end of the day, we all just want to pay attention to a winning team. I don’t really care if its this group or the next. Just be competent. If that’s .500 or around there so be it. One day we will get there again fellas. One day.
ditto
It's so easy to get excited about small samples because when what you want to see happening starts happening, you want to believe it. It's also a lot easier to see a decent future when they've won four in a row rather than having lost six in a row. I'll maintain that the reality is somewhere in the middle. Anyone who thinks this year is just a nightmare that'll be fine next year is probably wrong. Anyone who thinks this team is going to lose 115 games *next* year is probably wrong too.
That’s a good one actually. If we changed nothing going into next year. Luck will even out a bit (and I hate the luck excuse but I do generally think they have been a little bit) with the same talent I see 90 loses. Which could be a 15 game improvement give or take. I do believe it is hard to lose 100. Like first 3 game winning streak in August hard. So I see improvement next year. What i struggle to see is the 25 game improvement it might take so I just hope the FO see’s that too.
It’s a little crazy to think about losing 100 games and being .500 is only an 18 game difference in 162. Like, it’s really, really, hard to lose 100 in baseball. Kinda crazy.
19 game difference i guess, math is hard.
I think they did ok after Sunday’s debacle, given what they had to offer. At least they’re targeting some Latino players, which is critical given the weakness of their international scouting and signings. And I do hope Q resists the urge to overuse Hernandez, as he’s both the current closer and likely their best trade chip.
I think he's done a really nice job of *not* overusing anyone really. Even last night, the ninth inning in a tie game is a spot where "the book" says to go to the closer and he didn't, so I don't think that's a huge concern.
Seems like we got mostly organizational fillers and lottery tickets. Maybe Ragans or Williams will become real assets, but would the pitching hungry Rangers and Padres have traded them for short term, middle-of-the-road players if they thought they would become mid-rotation starters on playoff teams? I don’t think so. The scouting reports say Williams has a lot of potential, but he has had serious arm problems. (I agree that Barlow did good things for the Royals, but those days are mostly in the past with his decrease in velocity. I also understand he’s not strictly a rental.)
The guy we got from the Dodgers looks like a replacement level player, at best. 26 years old and still in AAA for a team that has had a bunch of position player injuries this year. The Dodgers, like the Braves with Waters et al, rarely trade guys who have a chance to be good players. The guy we got from the Cubs was being passed over by better prospects in a not-too-great farm system. He’s not likely to even be replacement level.
I have to confess that I am jaded in my evaluation of the current front office, but we are six years into 100 loss seasons and have very little talent to trade. Piccolo was GMDM’s right hand man when we dug this deep hole.
IMO, we’re probably six more years away from the playoffs (that may be optimistic) unless serious changes are made. I, too, don’t want to hear “we couldn’t quite get there.” Sherman needs to bring in some Front Office talent that can make something happen, and sooner rather than later.
I absolutely think they'd trade them. They got players who can help them now and sacrificed future for it. Mike Elias made a really interesting point that buyers often "lose" the trades in the long-term because they're focused on right now and sometimes you give up more value over time than you get back.
It's fine if you don't think any of them are going to be anything. The odds are that you'll be right because failure happens a lot more success, even in the most successful organizations. But I think there's quite a bit to like about all of the returns. Even if Mann is a replacement level player, they traded a guy who was DFA'd last year for him and a high-upside young player. There's context to that. If Velazquez isn't great, well, that makes sense because they traded him for Jose Cuas.
Future mid-rotation pitchers for playoff teams? I respectfully disagree with your comment that they absolutely would trade pitchers with that potential for four months of a much-diminished Chapman and eight months of a diminished Barlow. Granted, the Royals gave up very little, but are they making strides toward becoming a playoff team? Very small steps, if any, IMO. And most of the same people who got us into this mess are still at the helm. Again, we disagree.
I don’t know if you follow Baseball Trade Values or not (you probably do). They rate the Chapman trade a pretty big loser for the Royals, the Lopez trade a near tossup, the Cuas trade a slight winner, the Yarborough trade a slight winner and the Barlow trade a loser.
I think Baseball Trade Values is pretty wonky and I know a lot of people smarter than me look at it as an interesting tool that doesn't have a ton of value. I don't especially care much for what it says. I think that teams are willing to take risks at the deadline when they're close to winning.
That was a fun game. i am one of those who has accused mj of being unenthusiastic, but he looked pumped last night. Wonder how much the trade deadline weighs on guys?
Thank you for that thorough write up. Can't imagine between deadline and baby you got much sleep last night.
I am overall pleasantly surprised with what the royals did. I had been against trading Salvy, thinking he wouldn't bring back enough value, but aren't,t marlins flush with young pitching? I would be thrilled with a decent SP. Any scuttlebutt on Davidson?
and oh yeah- i was shocked by yarbs return- thanks Rodriguez! it almost gets me to forget the lopez thing
Yeah, Eduardo Rodriguez gave the Royals that return, which I love!
I saw a statistic where something like 10% of the prospects exchanged at the deadline go on to be significant contributors at the MLB level. It's fun to speculate but the emotional investment probably is misspent. The reality to me is this. If Ragans or Williams becomes a durable, good middle of rotation starter, it was a good haul for what we gave up. Low salaries on Chapman and Yarbrough essential mean we bought some controllable prospects at a reasonable price. Anything else any of these guys ultimately contribute is gravy, and as with the draft, we're not going to know for a while. Except Ragans..... no the season isn't over. The evaluation is just beginning.
I saw that too. Not sure if 10% is the number, but I know what you're talking about there. I'd love to see an analysis of the "smart" teams vs. the "dumb" teams to see how that 10% is made up. That would be interesting to me. I go back to the opening presser for Q and how he said they need to win on the margins and he's absolutely right. If the league gets 10%, the Royals need to get 20%. Simple as that.
Is it luck, skill or player development when you draft Albert Pujols in the 13th round? Is it luck, skill, or player development when you acquire Nelson Cruz, and he sits on the bench for 4 years before he realizes he's a HOF hitter at age 29? Who knew Spencer Strider was a dominant front line starter. Idk but the Royals need to do some of that if they are going to win.
I'll answer your question with yes. It's all of that, but to think there's no amount of luck involved would be foolish. The Royals need to get better at the rest, though, for sure.
I think a lot of it is luck. I think this team got very lucky in 2014 and 2015, and has paid a karmic price since. They've also not been "state of the art" in player development or metrics up til now, which doesn't help.
I don't think they're paying any sort of karmic price and I believe that any team that wins a championship has a good deal of good luck. They definitely haven't helped themselves, though.
Thanks for the great stuff, David. Obvious you put some time into writing a lot this week and it is appreciated. Regarding the trades, it seems like we sold a little low on Barlow but quite high on Cuas, so that feels like a wash. I did see the stat referenced above on MLB Network yesterday regarding prospect success rates after being traded. I believe they said 3% became cornerstone type players and 10% became contributors. But better to have 10% chance than zero I suppose. As an aside, we all love this crazy game, at least in part, because it is unpredictable. Last night's balk-off is one of many examples. So it's kinda weird to me to act like we know more than we do, when so much (at least to me) is unknowable. We don't know if the Dodgers gave us quality MLB guys or not, and they don't either. They may be better as an organization than KC has been at hitting on development, but they still miss a lot, as every team does. That 10% stat shows that across baseball. Arguing about it is part of the fun I suppose, and I did enjoy the back and forth between Joel and David, but I like the trades overall (obviously the Lopez trade is the exception) and we'll see. We didn't see a 110 loss team this year, so we probably don't see next year's record yet either, and certainly not six years in the future as one commenter mentioned. The last four games have at least been a nice break from the beatdown. And at the very least, it is starting to look like we have a legit left side of the infield, a backup catcher that can hit, and MJ does look better as well. And we made some trades at the deadline. So the optimist in me is seeing some improvement.
Every team makes mistakes. I'll bring up Yordan Alvarez again. The Dodgers traded him for Josh Fields. Fields had posted a 6.89 ERA for the Astros in 15 games in 2016. He had been better before, but never special. And he pitched well for the Dodgers. But they gave up Alvarez, who was by one article "an unheralded teenager." That was about the most anyone said about him. He was better regarded as an international signing than Figueroa, but the point is that even the best teams give up real talent. Does this mean Figueroa will hit? No. Does it mean Cabrera will hit? No. But you never know there and I appreciate the kind of talent those guys have.
I definitely see improvement, which is easier during a winning streak than a losing streak and they need to continue this in November and December, but I'm cautiously optimistic they'll continue to makeover this team.
Appreciated the summary of the players we received in transactions; however this statement by you just cracked me up. "which led to Dylan Coleman coming in and promptly vomiting all over the game." Hilarious! Not for the team or him, but you nailed it. Thanks, David.
Everyone loves a good vomit comment!
I'm right with you on the B- average grade for the deadline. Was maybe hoping for a bit more, but the bigger trades were always more likely this winter. I would love your thoughts on the returns. Not necessarily on individual players, but profiles. It sounds like William's has a high spin fb with a hard breaking slider. Appears the bats have solid zone recognition/plate discipline. These characteristics seem to be the focal points in development right now as well (which has been needed for 20yrs). I don't think their was a ton of impact added, but I liked seeing guys added that seem to line up with the new development direction.
Also. Winning is fun.